Went out way too fast in my half-marathon this morning, but I still managed to stagger to a time bettering my goal. I'm celebrating by drinking beer, obviously.
THE RANKINGS
rk | LW | NCAA Team | Conf | Record | Rating | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 | FloridaState | ACC | 9-0 | 1.438 | 1.987 | 3 | 0.418 | 3 |
2 | 2 | Baylor | B12 | 8-0 | 1.400 | 2.252 | 1 | 0.604 | 13 |
3 | 3 | Alabama | SEC | 9-0 | 1.305 | 1.539 | 11 | 0.292 | 1 |
4 | 4 | Oregon | Pac-12 | 8-1 | 1.165 | 1.862 | 5 | 0.581 | 11 |
5 | 6 | OhioState | B10 | 9-0 | 1.128 | 1.860 | 6 | 0.613 | 14 |
6 | 5 | ArizonaState | Pac-12 | 7-2 | 1.044 | 1.965 | 4 | 0.760 | 37 |
7 | 8 | Wisconsin | B10 | 7-2 | 0.963 | 1.374 | 18 | 0.454 | 4 |
8 | 7 | Louisville | Amer | 8-1 | 0.924 | 1.260 | 29 | 0.417 | 2 |
9 | 10 | Missouri | SEC | 9-1 | 0.845 | 1.509 | 13 | 0.635 | 19 |
10 | 9 | Clemson | ACC | 8-1 | 0.842 | 1.552 | 10 | 0.666 | 21 |
11 | 14 | Washington | Pac-12 | 6-3 | 0.830 | 1.349 | 21 | 0.542 | 8 |
12 | 11 | TexasAM | SEC | 8-2 | 0.815 | 2.057 | 2 | 1.064 | 82 |
13 | 16 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 8-1 | 0.788 | 1.302 | 24 | 0.545 | 10 |
14 | 17 | Auburn | SEC | 9-1 | 0.775 | 1.396 | 17 | 0.619 | 15 |
15 | 15 | GeorgiaTech | ACC | 6-3 | 0.769 | 1.336 | 22 | 0.583 | 12 |
16 | 12 | CentralFlorida | Amer | 7-1 | 0.749 | 1.492 | 14 | 0.708 | 28 |
17 | 13 | BYU | Ind. | 6-3 | 0.747 | 1.372 | 19 | 0.625 | 16 |
18 | 18 | LSU | SEC | 7-3 | 0.707 | 1.568 | 9 | 0.801 | 43 |
19 | 22 | OklahomaState | B12 | 8-1 | 0.684 | 1.430 | 16 | 0.721 | 33 |
20 | 20 | Georgia | SEC | 6-3 | 0.678 | 1.591 | 8 | 0.847 | 50 |
21 | 21 | SouthCarolina | SEC | 7-2 | 0.650 | 1.259 | 30 | 0.629 | 18 |
22 | 19 | Miami | ACC | 7-2 | 0.624 | 1.531 | 12 | 0.852 | 52 |
23 | 24 | MichiganState | B10 | 8-1 | 0.597 | 0.962 | 69 | 0.465 | 5 |
24 | 23 | USC | Pac-12 | 7-3 | 0.588 | 1.068 | 52 | 0.543 | 9 |
25 | 27 | UCLA | Pac-12 | 7-2 | 0.565 | 1.250 | 32 | 0.693 | 26 |
And the Big Ten in particular...
rk | LW | NCAA Team | Conf | Record | Rating | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5 | 6 | OhioState | B10 | 9-0 | 1.128 | 1.860 | 6 | 0.613 | 14 |
7 | 8 | Wisconsin | B10 | 7-2 | 0.963 | 1.374 | 18 | 0.454 | 4 |
23 | 24 | MichiganState | B10 | 8-1 | 0.597 | 0.962 | 69 | 0.465 | 5 |
35 | 37 | Indiana | B10 | 4-5 | 0.407 | 1.832 | 7 | 1.334 | 111 |
46 | 40 | Michigan | B10 | 6-3 | 0.302 | 1.243 | 34 | 0.928 | 64 |
48 | 45 | Iowa | B10 | 6-4 | 0.291 | 0.935 | 74 | 0.675 | 22 |
51 | 44 | PennState | B10 | 5-4 | 0.243 | 0.929 | 76 | 0.710 | 30 |
53 | 54 | Nebraska | B10 | 7-2 | 0.211 | 1.105 | 49 | 0.894 | 61 |
56 | 62 | Minnesota | B10 | 8-2 | 0.183 | 0.971 | 67 | 0.799 | 42 |
59 | 60 | Northwestern | B10 | 4-5 | 0.142 | 1.027 | 61 | 0.888 | 60 |
75 | 76 | Illinois | B10 | 3-6 | -0.058 | 1.165 | 43 | 1.228 | 105 |
115 | 115 | Purdue | B10 | 1-8 | -0.749 | 0.480 | 122 | 1.153 | 91 |
A primer on what goes into these rankings can be found here. Some thoughts...
BAYLOR BAYLOR BAYLOR BAYLOR BAYLOR. Sorry, had to get that out of my system. Part of the reason why I love Baylor so much is that non-blue bloods never get the chance to compete for a national championship. The closest has probably been Oregon, but they at least had two decades of Nike $$$$ to get them up there. Oklahoma State got passed up by an Alabama team that placed second in its division, just to make the point more clear. So when a team like Baylor comes along - undefeated and legitimately good (get out of here Fresno State) - I am going to be on that like flies to honey.
In Baylor's case, the offense gets a lot of the attention. If I wanted, I could expand upon how it really is, compared to rest of my database (and it is truly bonkers). But Baylor has had a great offense for three years running now, with three different quarterbacks running the show. The offense is not why Baylor is suddenly in the BCs conversation. That honor goes to the defense. 13th in the nation (whether or not you believe that's a valid assessment of Baylor) isn't world beating, but it's certainly miles ahead of where they were last year. And with the offense Baylor has going, 13th is more than enough to get the job done.
Here, a quick-and-dirty comparison of Baylor's defensive performances (pts/gm, yds/ply):
pts/gm | yds/play | |||
Opponent | season | vs Baylor | season | vs Baylor |
Buffalo | 30.9 | 13 | 5.35 | 4.84 |
LouisianaMonroe | 22.2 | 7 | 4.99 | 3.64 |
WestVirginia | 25.3 | 42 | 5.34 | 5.25 |
KansasState | 34.0 | 25 | 6.29 | 5.56 |
IowaState | 22.4 | 7 | 4.41 | 2.90 |
Kansas | 15.9 | 14 | 4.34 | 3.71 |
Oklahoma | 28.9 | 12 | 5.67 | 3.43 |
stats via CFB Stats
Obviously, this is incomplete, but I didn't really want to spend time going into every single detail of every Baylor game. Still, the one real blemish in there is the 42 pts given up to West Virginia. Considering that game was 56-14 at the half (with 7 pf West Virginia's points coming via fumble return), I'm not going to read too much into that one.
I don't actually think Baylor is better than Alabama or Florida State, but I do think that they are in the conversation besides. Obviously, all bets are off if they lose - as it is for most title contenders (Alabama has a special hall pass for this) - but I'll be hoping they get the credit they deserve. If they get Fresno State in the Fiesta Bowl, though...
More opportunities for criticism: the Pac-12 is pretty good. It's pretty apparent that my metrics look favorably on the Pac-12, with six teams in my Top 25 (and that's not counting Arizona and Utah, who come in at #27 and #28, respectively). For some people, this cause some bothersome results, such as #6 Arizona State, #11 Washington, #any USC. I'm not going to pretend the ordinal rankings here are perfect, but there is a reason so many Pac-12 teams pop up, despite common opinion.
Here is the Pac-12's non-conference record (manually calculated, so feel free to check me): 29-6 (includes FCS games, Stanford still has to play Notre Dame).
Of those 6 losses, two are from California (to Ohio State and Northwestern). California sucks and isn't a relevant part of the Pac-12 = awesome equation anyway. Another is Oregon State's loss to Eastern Washington (FCS). Oregon State's better than that loss would suggest (actually, that loss is probably the one thing keeping them out of the Top 30), but I'm not going to defend a FCS loss, no matter the opponent. Oregon's State's hardly the only BCS school to have an FCS loss, though (Bill Snyder says hello!).
That leaves two losses to Notre Dame (USC and Arizona State), both of which were on the road (ish in Arizona State's case) and close games (14-10 over USC, 37-34 over Arizona State). Notre Dame isn't a great team this year, but they are still plenty decent enough to where a loss isn't anything to be ashamed of (right, Sparty?). The final loss, 24-31 to Auburn by Washington State, just looks better and better as the year goes on.
I don't keep conference specific adjustments (a game against Iowa State is treated the same as a game against Utah State), but a relatively strong non-conference record across the Pac-12 is going to have some residual effects as those teams go against each other. I probably haven't convinced you that Utah is any good, but I hope I've given some understanding as to why the Pac-12 is looked upon the way it is.
Goddammit Iowa, you let Purdue score 14 pts. Now they only need 40(ish) pts in their last three games to overcome 1981 Northwestern futility. THAT'S NOT ENOUGH. The rest of your week in BCS Worst.
#115 - (B10) - Purdue
#112 - (AAC) - Connecticut
#111 - (AAC) - South Florida
#105 - (AAC) - Temple
#101 - (B12) - Kansas
THE PICKINGS
Lines taken from 5Dimes.eu here, as of 2013-11-11. Home teams highlighted in blue.
Overcat | Underdog | Proj Winner | Conf | Line | Hoegh | Pick vs Spd |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NorthernIllinois | BallState | BallState | 67% | 7.0 | -5.9 | BallState |
Clemson | GeorgiaTech | Clemson | 56% | 10.5 | 2.1 | GeorgiaTech |
UCLA | Washington | Washington | 71% | 2.5 | -7.5 | Washington |
Stanford | USC | Stanford | 66% | 3.5 | 5.6 | Stanford |
Auburn | Georgia | Auburn | 58% | 4.0 | 2.7 | Georgia |
FloridaState | Syracuse | FloridaState | 99% | 38.5 | 34.3 | Syracuse |
Miami | Duke | Miami | 62% | 3.0 | 3.8 | Miami |
OklahomaState | Texas | OklahomaState | 71% | 3.0 | 7.5 | OklahomaState |
Louisville | Houston | Louisville | 80% | 15.5 | 11.3 | Houston |
Baylor | TexasTech | Baylor | 99% | 27.0 | 29.2 | Baylor |
And the Big Ten games...
Overcat | Underdog | Proj Winner | Conf | Line | Hoegh | Pick vs Spd |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wisconsin | Indiana | Wisconsin | 88% | 21.0 | 15.7 | Indiana |
OhioState | Illinois | OhioState | 99% | 32.0 | 33.5 | OhioState |
Northwestern | Michigan | Michigan | 63% | 3.0 | -4.5 | Michigan |
PennState | Purdue | PennState | 99% | 21.5 | 28.0 | PennState |
MichiganState | Nebraska | MichiganState | 79% | 6.5 | 10.9 | MichiganState |
Talk Big Ten football with Off Tackle Empire