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Hoegher's Rankings and Picks: WEEK THIRTEEN (picks update!)

Well, Indiana, that's what you get for hiring a guy from Oklahoma. Perhaps he'll acclimate to the weather at some point. Yesterday was... yeesh.

THE RANKINGS

rk LW NCAA Team Conf Record Rating Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
1 1 FloridaState ACC 10-0 1.483 1.997 3 0.385 2
2 2 Baylor B12 9-0 1.321 2.170 1 0.629 13
3 3 Alabama SEC 10-0 1.261 1.463 14 0.286 1
4 4 Oregon Pac-12 9-1 1.150 1.849 5 0.586 10
5 5 OhioState B10 10-0 1.065 1.848 6 0.663 21
6 7 Wisconsin B10 8-2 1.026 1.383 20 0.412 3
7 6 ArizonaState Pac-12 8-2 1.014 1.883 4 0.733 33
8 10 Clemson ACC 9-1 0.905 1.654 8 0.679 23
9 8 Louisville Amer 9-1 0.855 1.173 41 0.416 4
10 12 TexasAM SEC 8-2 0.854 2.107 2 1.060 82
11 9 Missouri SEC 9-1 0.841 1.510 11 0.639 15
12 14 Auburn SEC 10-1 0.771 1.424 15 0.641 16
13 11 Washington Pac-12 6-4 0.764 1.364 21 0.606 11
14 13 Stanford Pac-12 8-2 0.728 1.257 27 0.563 9
15 17 BYU Ind. 7-3 0.723 1.383 19 0.654 20
16 19 OklahomaState B12 9-1 0.713 1.417 16 0.686 24
17 18 LSU SEC 7-3 0.708 1.566 10 0.798 41
18 15 GeorgiaTech ACC 6-4 0.676 1.316 24 0.647 18
19 20 Georgia SEC 6-4 0.673 1.618 9 0.872 57
20 21 SouthCarolina SEC 8-2 0.620 1.245 28 0.642 17
21 16 CentralFlorida Amer 8-1 0.619 1.471 13 0.811 45
22 23 MichiganState B10 9-1 0.602 1.025 60 0.503 5
23 25 UCLA Pac-12 8-2 0.601 1.310 25 0.706 27
24 24 USC Pac-12 8-3 0.589 1.086 53 0.555 8
25 32 Duke ACC 8-2 0.525 1.329 23 0.789 39

And the Big Ten in particular...

rk LW NCAA Team Conf Record Rating Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
5 5 OhioState B10 10-0 1.065 1.848 6 0.663 21
6 7 Wisconsin B10 8-2 1.026 1.383 20 0.412 3
22 23 MichiganState B10 9-1 0.602 1.025 60 0.503 5
44 48 Iowa B10 6-4 0.289 0.921 75 0.666 22
45 35 Indiana B10 4-6 0.285 1.669 7 1.326 109
48 46 Michigan B10 7-3 0.271 1.136 46 0.865 55
52 53 Nebraska B10 7-3 0.229 1.206 36 0.967 68
59 51 PennState B10 6-4 0.158 0.952 70 0.804 43
60 56 Minnesota B10 8-2 0.145 0.956 68 0.819 47
65 59 Northwestern B10 4-6 0.099 0.930 73 0.837 51
68 75 Illinois B10 3-7 0.022 1.238 29 1.214 104
113 115 Purdue B10 1-9 -0.703 0.533 121 1.182 93

A primer on what goes into these rankings can be found here. Some thoughts...

Why the love for Sparky? First, if you think I have any love for Arizona State, you need to re-think that. But since I get pelted with criticism about their spot here every week (and they've been in my Top 10 every week since the beginning of the season), I'll try to give some explanation. Here's a visual aid for your pleasure:

Arizona State Weekly Performance

Arizona State is clearly riding high on the basis of a formidable offense, and even if you think that's being skewed by a Week 5 destruction of USC, they've been well above average besides. The defense isn't great (I have them ranked 33rd), but the offense has been so good to overcome that minor deficiency.

However, when you are great on one side of the ball but just okay on the other, you're going to open yourself up to more variability. I keep track of variance for each team through the season, basically how consistent they are week-to-week. This isn't necessarily a good thing (you might be consistently bad, for example), but it can help explain why certain teams come in where they do. Wisconsin is actually #3 in variance, which makes sense (we've crushed all the lower competition, and played close in our losses to great teams). USC is #95 in variance, which is why they can beat Stanford and lose to Washington State in the same (present day) season. Arizona State is #124. The only team worse is Texas A&M (another great offense saddled by a lesser quality defense).

Arizona State probably isn't going to fall out this Top 10 the rest of the season, there's just not enough weeks left to make a major impact. You don't have to like it and feel free to tell me that I'm wrong. But at least you have an explanation now!

GO AWAY FRESNO STATE. This isn't just because of personal biases and a desire to see Wisconsin in a BCS bowl. The Bulldogs just aren't that good, certainly not befitting the mid-major legacy they are riding the coattails of right now. There have been eight mid-majors in the BCS prior to this year. A summary of the match-ups and results (with my rankings for that season):

2004 - #8 Utah vs #62 Pittsburgh (W, 35-7)

2006 - #16 Boise State vs #13 Oklahoma (W, 43-42)

2007 - #48 Hawaii vs #12 Georgia (L, 10-41)

2008 - #14 Utah vs #6 Alabama (W, 31-17)

2009 - #13 Boise State vs #6 TCU (W, 17-10)

2010 - #4 TCU vs #11 Wisconsin (W, 21-19)

2012 - #37 Northern Illinois vs #3 Florida State (L, 10-31)

There is a very clear pattern there. As 2013 Fresno State ranks 62nd right now, I'm not looking forward to what would likely be a bloodbath in the Fiesta Bowl (and no, Northern Illinois isn't any better).

Purdue, you are ruining this Worst Watch. What happened to the days of "no redzone snaps in a month?" The current edition of "scoring 35 pts in two weeks" doesn't offer nearly enough ineptitude to be entertaining. Unacceptable.

#113 - (B10) Purdue

#112 - (AAC) Connecticut

#111 - (AAC) South Florida

#98 - (AAC) Temple

#97 - (B12) Iowa State

THE PICKINGS

Lines taken from here as of 2013-11-19. Home teams highlighted in blue.

Overcat Underdog Proj Winner Conf Line Hoegh Pick vs Spd
KansasState Oklahoma Oklahoma 53% 3.5 -1.0 Oklahoma
Missouri Mississippi Missouri 84% 3.0 13.7 Missouri
LSU TexasAM TexasAM 61% 4.5 -3.7 TexasAM
NorthernIllinois Toledo Toledo 64% 3.0 -4.6 Toledo
Houston Cincinnati Houston 69% 3.0 6.8 Houston
Baylor OklahomaState Baylor 91% 10.0 17.4 Baylor
Pittsburgh Syracuse Pittsburgh 57% 1.0 2.2 Pittsburgh
Oregon Arizona Oregon 93% 21.0 19.4 Arizona
BYU NotreDame BYU 80% 1.0 11.2 BYU
ArizonaState UCLA ArizonaState 81% 3.0 11.7 ArizonaState

And the Big Ten games...

Overcat Underdog Proj Winner Conf Line Hoegh Pick vs Spd
Wisconsin Minnesota Wisconsin 99% 16.0 24.9 Wisconsin
OhioState Indiana OhioState 96% 34.5 22.2 Indiana
MichiganState Northwestern MichiganState 85% 7.0 14.2 MichiganState
PennState Nebraska Nebraska 56% 2.0 -1.9 Nebraska
Iowa Michigan Iowa 52% 6.0 0.6 Michigan
Illinois Purdue Illinois 94% 7.0 20.4 Illinois
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