Quickly posted for your enjoyment. Commentary and pickings coming later. Maybe.
THE RANKINGS
rk | LW | NCAA Team | Conf | Record | Rating | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 4 | FloridaState | ACC | 8-0 | 1.365 | 1.934 | 5 | 0.450 | 3 |
2 | 2 | Baylor | B12 | 7-0 | 1.358 | 2.262 | 1 | 0.651 | 22 |
3 | 1 | Alabama | SEC | 8-0 | 1.335 | 1.571 | 12 | 0.285 | 1 |
4 | 3 | Oregon | Pac-12 | 8-0 | 1.287 | 2.010 | 4 | 0.562 | 10 |
5 | 5 | ArizonaState | Pac-12 | 6-2 | 1.127 | 2.139 | 2 | 0.798 | 45 |
6 | 6 | OhioState | B10 | 9-0 | 1.107 | 1.856 | 6 | 0.629 | 18 |
7 | 7 | Louisville | Amer | 7-1 | 1.012 | 1.311 | 24 | 0.383 | 2 |
8 | 8 | Wisconsin | B10 | 6-2 | 0.954 | 1.363 | 19 | 0.455 | 4 |
9 | 19 | Clemson | ACC | 8-1 | 0.882 | 1.578 | 10 | 0.649 | 20 |
10 | 14 | Missouri | SEC | 8-1 | 0.844 | 1.521 | 15 | 0.643 | 19 |
11 | 9 | TexasAM | SEC | 7-2 | 0.836 | 2.064 | 3 | 1.046 | 80 |
12 | 12 | CentralFlorida | Amer | 6-1 | 0.795 | 1.610 | 9 | 0.750 | 33 |
13 | 10 | BYU | Ind. | 6-2 | 0.789 | 1.391 | 17 | 0.604 | 13 |
14 | 11 | Washington | Pac-12 | 5-3 | 0.786 | 1.325 | 23 | 0.562 | 11 |
15 | 13 | GeorgiaTech | ACC | 6-3 | 0.756 | 1.332 | 22 | 0.591 | 12 |
16 | 17 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 7-1 | 0.747 | 1.262 | 29 | 0.552 | 9 |
17 | 16 | Auburn | SEC | 8-1 | 0.741 | 1.335 | 20 | 0.606 | 14 |
18 | 18 | LSU | SEC | 7-2 | 0.737 | 1.573 | 11 | 0.776 | 39 |
19 | 15 | Miami | ACC | 7-1 | 0.737 | 1.545 | 13 | 0.757 | 36 |
20 | 21 | Georgia | SEC | 5-3 | 0.689 | 1.691 | 8 | 0.912 | 61 |
21 | 24 | SouthCarolina | SEC | 7-2 | 0.654 | 1.259 | 30 | 0.625 | 16 |
22 | 25 | OklahomaState | B12 | 7-1 | 0.638 | 1.442 | 16 | 0.771 | 38 |
23 | 23 | USC | Pac-12 | 6-3 | 0.622 | 1.013 | 60 | 0.481 | 7 |
24 | 33 | MichiganState | B10 | 8-1 | 0.588 | 0.958 | 67 | 0.469 | 6 |
25 | 32 | UtahState | MWC | 5-4 | 0.576 | 1.163 | 44 | 0.620 | 15 |
And the Big Ten in particular...
rk | LW | NCAA Team | Conf | Record | Rating | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6 | 6 | OhioState | B10 | 9-0 | 1.107 | 1.856 | 6 | 0.629 | 18 |
8 | 8 | Wisconsin | B10 | 6-2 | 0.954 | 1.363 | 19 | 0.455 | 4 |
24 | 33 | MichiganState | B10 | 8-1 | 0.588 | 0.958 | 67 | 0.469 | 6 |
37 | 37 | Indiana | B10 | 3-5 | 0.386 | 1.841 | 7 | 1.365 | 113 |
40 | 36 | Michigan | B10 | 6-2 | 0.332 | 1.332 | 21 | 0.977 | 71 |
44 | 45 | PennState | B10 | 5-3 | 0.313 | 0.953 | 69 | 0.672 | 23 |
45 | 44 | Iowa | B10 | 5-4 | 0.312 | 0.895 | 81 | 0.625 | 17 |
54 | 54 | Nebraska | B10 | 6-2 | 0.203 | 1.161 | 45 | 0.952 | 64 |
60 | 70 | Northwestern | B10 | 4-5 | 0.114 | 1.002 | 62 | 0.891 | 58 |
62 | 71 | Minnesota | B10 | 7-2 | 0.088 | 0.933 | 75 | 0.850 | 52 |
76 | 81 | Illinois | B10 | 3-5 | -0.045 | 1.182 | 40 | 1.231 | 102 |
115 | 111 | Purdue | B10 | 1-7 | -0.733 | 0.445 | 123 | 1.079 | 84 |
A primer on what goes into these rankings can be found here. Some thought...
I usually don't care about the polls too much. I tend to think that the effect pf pre-season bias is over-blown and come the end of the season, the polls tend to be a pretty fair judge of various teams. There's no real point in getting upset at where teams are slotted when their still many, many more games yet to be played.
But since that's boring, let's engage in some old fashioned outrage, shall we? There, uh, may or may not be a theme here.
IN NEED OF A QUICK DOSE OF REALITY
Northern Illinois (#22 AP, #87 Hoegh) - We all need to remember that the MAC is crap. A good MAC team (90% of the time) is still pretty bad in the grand scheme of things. I will grant that Northern Illinois has improved as of late (in that they are blowing out their bad opponents, rather than letting Idaho and Akron hang around), and their offense is fairly decent (#26 here). But of their last eight opponents (all except Iowa), none have ranked higher than 108th. Ball State (69th) and Toledo (75th) should quickly end this foolish BCS talk.
Fresno State (#17 AP, #73 Hoegh) - More of the same story as Northern Illinois, though with a slightly worse offense. They've been fortunate to come out on the winning side of both OT games they've had this year (Wk01 vs Rutgers, Wk09 vs San Diego State), both of which were against decidedly "meh" competition. Unlike Northern Illinois, it doesn't look like the rest of the regular season offers much competition, other than maybe San Jose State (#79) in the last week. Fortunately, they have a MWC Championship game against likely opponent Boise State (#43). LET'S GO BRONCOS.
Oklahoma (#12 AP, #31 Hoegh) - Beat West Virginia 16-7, Kansas 34-19, and TCU 20-17. Surviving on name brand appeal and a single loss season so far. Will get obliterated by Baylor this Thursday, remind voters that this team got blown out by Texas, and the world will be righted.
Michigan State (#18 AP, #24 Hoegh) - Not because of being over-rated, but because I remembered how annoying y'all get once you have even a mild bit of success. I hope Minnesota drops 50 on you (this is unlikely, but a man can dream).
LOOKING FOR LOVE IN ALL THE WRONG PLACES
Arizona State (#23 AP, #5 Hoegh) - Yes, they lost to Notre Dame (somehow), but a road loss to Stanford isn't anything to be ashamed about. They've also set a flamethrower to respected outfits in USC (62 pts, #7 defense) and Washington (53 pts, #11 defense). There was also some game in the desert earlier in the year. The opponent name escapes me at the moment.
BYU ([NR] AP, #13 Hoegh) - Another team hung up on a inexplicable early loss (16-19 to Virginia). They have that roughing of Texas, however, and they've spent the last three weeks taking home victories over three teams in contention for their conference or division titles (6-3 Georgia Tech, 7-1 Houston, 6-3 Boise State). Will not get any more respect after losing this coming weekend, unfortunately (KNOCK KNOCK KNOCK WOOD)
Louisville (#20 AP, #7 Hoegh) - A victim of poll biases, since they can't reasonably be kept above Central Florida (by poll logic, at least), and Central Florida is itself undervalued (how is one 3 pt loss to South Carolina worthy of #19?). I'd have more sympathy, but they were way over-ranked last year and got a BCS bowl win, so it's all crocodile tears over here.
Just how bad is Purdue? MGoBlog has done an (half-assed, IMO) effort the past few years to keep track of the worst team in the Big Ten and see how they measure up to the past. Purdue has a strong candidacy this year, being as they scored 7 pts int he month of October (aided by two BYE's, but still). Well, I've got a database of NCAA Div I teams going back to 1930, so I think it's time to dust off the spreadsheets and see what we've got. I've tried to adjust for era discrepancies, but feel free to take this all with a grain of sodium.
Of the 9953 I have on record (including a generic FCS for each year), 2013 Purdue comes in at 9248. Unfortunately, that's not even in the top bottom 20 (just outside, actually). Going backwards in time, Purdue comes ahead of:
1997 Illinois (0-11, #9311), otherwise known as one of the reasons everyone is currently laughing at FIU.
1984 Northwestern (2-9, #9438), just one of many, many teams.
1983 Minnesota (1-10, #9752), just a reminder it wasn't all Brewster's fault.
1981 Northwestern (0-11, #9941), the worst major conference team ever.
So Purdue has a long way to go until they get close to the Wildcats. Darn. The rest of your Weekly BCS Worst:
#115 - Purdue
#114 - Connecticut (THIS TEAM ALMOST BEAT MICHIGAN)
#111 - South Florida
#106 - Temple
#100 - SMU
THE PICKINGS
Lines taken from 5Dimes.eu here, as off 2013-11-04. Home teams highlighted in blue.
Overcat | Underdog | Proj Winner | Conf | Line | Hoegh | Pick vs Spd |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Buffalo | Ohio | Buffalo | 60% | 3.5 | 3.5 | Ohio |
Baylor | Oklahoma | Baylor | 98% | 14.5 | 24.3 | Baylor |
Oregon | Stanford | Oregon | 87% | 10.5 | 15.3 | Oregon |
TexasTech | KansasState | TexasTech | 52% | 2.5 | 0.7 | KansasState |
Mississippi | Arkansas | Mississippi | 93% | 17.0 | 19.2 | Mississippi |
Maryland | Syracuse | Syracuse | 67% | 7.0 | -6.0 | Syracuse |
ArizonaState | Utah | ArizonaState | 89% | 7.0 | 16.4 | ArizonaState |
CentralFlorida | Houston | CentralFlorida | 69% | 10.5 | 6.8 | Houston |
Alabama | LSU | Alabama | 90% | 11.5 | 16.9 | Alabama |
NotreDame | Pittsburgh | NotreDame | 70% | 5.0 | 7.0 | NotreDame |
And the Big Ten games...
Overcat | Underdog | Proj Winner | Conf | Line | Hoegh | Pick vs Spd |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Wisconsin | BYU | Wisconsin | 64% | 7.5 | 4.7 | BYU |
Minnesota | PennState | PennState | 68% | 3.0 | -6.4 | PennState |
Indiana | Illinois | Indiana | 82% | 10.0 | 12.2 | Indiana |
Michigan | Nebraska | Michigan | 61% | 7.0 | 3.6 | Nebraska |
Iowa | Purdue | Iowa | 99% | 15.0 | 29.5 | Iowa |
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