FanPost

Hoegher's Rankings and Picks: WEEK ELEVEN (updated!)

Quickly posted for your enjoyment. Commentary and pickings coming later. Maybe.

THE RANKINGS

rk LW NCAA Team Conf Record Rating Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
1 4 FloridaState ACC 8-0 1.365 1.934 5 0.450 3
2 2 Baylor B12 7-0 1.358 2.262 1 0.651 22
3 1 Alabama SEC 8-0 1.335 1.571 12 0.285 1
4 3 Oregon Pac-12 8-0 1.287 2.010 4 0.562 10
5 5 ArizonaState Pac-12 6-2 1.127 2.139 2 0.798 45
6 6 OhioState B10 9-0 1.107 1.856 6 0.629 18
7 7 Louisville Amer 7-1 1.012 1.311 24 0.383 2
8 8 Wisconsin B10 6-2 0.954 1.363 19 0.455 4
9 19 Clemson ACC 8-1 0.882 1.578 10 0.649 20
10 14 Missouri SEC 8-1 0.844 1.521 15 0.643 19
11 9 TexasAM SEC 7-2 0.836 2.064 3 1.046 80
12 12 CentralFlorida Amer 6-1 0.795 1.610 9 0.750 33
13 10 BYU Ind. 6-2 0.789 1.391 17 0.604 13
14 11 Washington Pac-12 5-3 0.786 1.325 23 0.562 11
15 13 GeorgiaTech ACC 6-3 0.756 1.332 22 0.591 12
16 17 Stanford Pac-12 7-1 0.747 1.262 29 0.552 9
17 16 Auburn SEC 8-1 0.741 1.335 20 0.606 14
18 18 LSU SEC 7-2 0.737 1.573 11 0.776 39
19 15 Miami ACC 7-1 0.737 1.545 13 0.757 36
20 21 Georgia SEC 5-3 0.689 1.691 8 0.912 61
21 24 SouthCarolina SEC 7-2 0.654 1.259 30 0.625 16
22 25 OklahomaState B12 7-1 0.638 1.442 16 0.771 38
23 23 USC Pac-12 6-3 0.622 1.013 60 0.481 7
24 33 MichiganState B10 8-1 0.588 0.958 67 0.469 6
25 32 UtahState MWC 5-4 0.576 1.163 44 0.620 15

And the Big Ten in particular...

rk LW NCAA Team Conf Record Rating Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
6 6 OhioState B10 9-0 1.107 1.856 6 0.629 18
8 8 Wisconsin B10 6-2 0.954 1.363 19 0.455 4
24 33 MichiganState B10 8-1 0.588 0.958 67 0.469 6
37 37 Indiana B10 3-5 0.386 1.841 7 1.365 113
40 36 Michigan B10 6-2 0.332 1.332 21 0.977 71
44 45 PennState B10 5-3 0.313 0.953 69 0.672 23
45 44 Iowa B10 5-4 0.312 0.895 81 0.625 17
54 54 Nebraska B10 6-2 0.203 1.161 45 0.952 64
60 70 Northwestern B10 4-5 0.114 1.002 62 0.891 58
62 71 Minnesota B10 7-2 0.088 0.933 75 0.850 52
76 81 Illinois B10 3-5 -0.045 1.182 40 1.231 102
115 111 Purdue B10 1-7 -0.733 0.445 123 1.079 84

A primer on what goes into these rankings can be found here. Some thought...

I usually don't care about the polls too much. I tend to think that the effect pf pre-season bias is over-blown and come the end of the season, the polls tend to be a pretty fair judge of various teams. There's no real point in getting upset at where teams are slotted when their still many, many more games yet to be played.

But since that's boring, let's engage in some old fashioned outrage, shall we? There, uh, may or may not be a theme here.

IN NEED OF A QUICK DOSE OF REALITY

Northern Illinois (#22 AP, #87 Hoegh) - We all need to remember that the MAC is crap. A good MAC team (90% of the time) is still pretty bad in the grand scheme of things. I will grant that Northern Illinois has improved as of late (in that they are blowing out their bad opponents, rather than letting Idaho and Akron hang around), and their offense is fairly decent (#26 here). But of their last eight opponents (all except Iowa), none have ranked higher than 108th. Ball State (69th) and Toledo (75th) should quickly end this foolish BCS talk.

Fresno State (#17 AP, #73 Hoegh) - More of the same story as Northern Illinois, though with a slightly worse offense. They've been fortunate to come out on the winning side of both OT games they've had this year (Wk01 vs Rutgers, Wk09 vs San Diego State), both of which were against decidedly "meh" competition. Unlike Northern Illinois, it doesn't look like the rest of the regular season offers much competition, other than maybe San Jose State (#79) in the last week. Fortunately, they have a MWC Championship game against likely opponent Boise State (#43). LET'S GO BRONCOS.

Oklahoma (#12 AP, #31 Hoegh) - Beat West Virginia 16-7, Kansas 34-19, and TCU 20-17. Surviving on name brand appeal and a single loss season so far. Will get obliterated by Baylor this Thursday, remind voters that this team got blown out by Texas, and the world will be righted.

Michigan State (#18 AP, #24 Hoegh) - Not because of being over-rated, but because I remembered how annoying y'all get once you have even a mild bit of success. I hope Minnesota drops 50 on you (this is unlikely, but a man can dream).

LOOKING FOR LOVE IN ALL THE WRONG PLACES

Arizona State (#23 AP, #5 Hoegh) - Yes, they lost to Notre Dame (somehow), but a road loss to Stanford isn't anything to be ashamed about. They've also set a flamethrower to respected outfits in USC (62 pts, #7 defense) and Washington (53 pts, #11 defense). There was also some game in the desert earlier in the year. The opponent name escapes me at the moment.

BYU ([NR] AP, #13 Hoegh) - Another team hung up on a inexplicable early loss (16-19 to Virginia). They have that roughing of Texas, however, and they've spent the last three weeks taking home victories over three teams in contention for their conference or division titles (6-3 Georgia Tech, 7-1 Houston, 6-3 Boise State). Will not get any more respect after losing this coming weekend, unfortunately (KNOCK KNOCK KNOCK WOOD)

Louisville (#20 AP, #7 Hoegh) - A victim of poll biases, since they can't reasonably be kept above Central Florida (by poll logic, at least), and Central Florida is itself undervalued (how is one 3 pt loss to South Carolina worthy of #19?). I'd have more sympathy, but they were way over-ranked last year and got a BCS bowl win, so it's all crocodile tears over here.

Just how bad is Purdue? MGoBlog has done an (half-assed, IMO) effort the past few years to keep track of the worst team in the Big Ten and see how they measure up to the past. Purdue has a strong candidacy this year, being as they scored 7 pts int he month of October (aided by two BYE's, but still). Well, I've got a database of NCAA Div I teams going back to 1930, so I think it's time to dust off the spreadsheets and see what we've got. I've tried to adjust for era discrepancies, but feel free to take this all with a grain of sodium.

Of the 9953 I have on record (including a generic FCS for each year), 2013 Purdue comes in at 9248. Unfortunately, that's not even in the top bottom 20 (just outside, actually). Going backwards in time, Purdue comes ahead of:

1997 Illinois (0-11, #9311), otherwise known as one of the reasons everyone is currently laughing at FIU.

1984 Northwestern (2-9, #9438), just one of many, many teams.

1983 Minnesota (1-10, #9752), just a reminder it wasn't all Brewster's fault.

1981 Northwestern (0-11, #9941), the worst major conference team ever.

So Purdue has a long way to go until they get close to the Wildcats. Darn. The rest of your Weekly BCS Worst:

#115 - Purdue

#114 - Connecticut (THIS TEAM ALMOST BEAT MICHIGAN)

#111 - South Florida

#106 - Temple

#100 - SMU

THE PICKINGS

Lines taken from 5Dimes.eu here, as off 2013-11-04. Home teams highlighted in blue.

Overcat Underdog Proj Winner Conf Line Hoegh Pick vs Spd
Buffalo Ohio Buffalo 60% 3.5 3.5 Ohio
Baylor Oklahoma Baylor 98% 14.5 24.3 Baylor
Oregon Stanford Oregon 87% 10.5 15.3 Oregon
TexasTech KansasState TexasTech 52% 2.5 0.7 KansasState
Mississippi Arkansas Mississippi 93% 17.0 19.2 Mississippi
Maryland Syracuse Syracuse 67% 7.0 -6.0 Syracuse
ArizonaState Utah ArizonaState 89% 7.0 16.4 ArizonaState
CentralFlorida Houston CentralFlorida 69% 10.5 6.8 Houston
Alabama LSU Alabama 90% 11.5 16.9 Alabama
NotreDame Pittsburgh NotreDame 70% 5.0 7.0 NotreDame

And the Big Ten games...

Overcat Underdog Proj Winner Conf Line Hoegh Pick vs Spd
Wisconsin BYU Wisconsin 64% 7.5 4.7 BYU
Minnesota PennState PennState 68% 3.0 -6.4 PennState
Indiana Illinois Indiana 82% 10.0 12.2 Indiana
Michigan Nebraska Michigan 61% 7.0 3.6 Nebraska
Iowa Purdue Iowa 99% 15.0 29.5 Iowa
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Off Tackle Empire

You must be a member of Off Tackle Empire to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Off Tackle Empire. You should read them.

Join Off Tackle Empire

You must be a member of Off Tackle Empire to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Off Tackle Empire. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker