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Hoegher's Rankings and Picks: WEEK FIFTEEN (picks update!)

Ugh. That was a deeply unpleasant experience.

THE RANKINGS

rk LW NCAA Team Conf Record Rating Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
1 1 FloridaState ACC 12-0 1.430 1.975 2 0.417 2
2 2 Alabama SEC 11-1 1.227 1.494 12 0.325 1
3 3 Baylor B12 10-1 1.060 1.997 1 0.767 35
4 7 ArizonaState Pac-12 10-2 0.993 1.863 3 0.740 30
5 4 OhioState B10 12-0 0.973 1.755 5 0.686 22
6 5 Oregon Pac-12 10-2 0.933 1.688 6 0.677 20
7 12 Auburn SEC 11-1 0.887 1.610 9 0.665 19
8 6 Wisconsin B10 9-3 0.887 1.287 25 0.460 5
9 8 Clemson ACC 10-2 0.853 1.561 10 0.662 18
10 10 OklahomaState B12 10-1 0.817 1.492 13 0.648 15
11 11 Louisville Amer 10-1 0.805 1.181 39 0.457 4
12 9 Missouri SEC 11-1 0.794 1.410 15 0.612 10
13 13 Washington Pac-12 8-4 0.751 1.377 18 0.625 12
14 17 Stanford Pac-12 10-2 0.710 1.227 31 0.557 8
15 18 Georgia SEC 8-4 0.700 1.652 7 0.871 59
16 14 TexasAM SEC 8-4 0.685 1.853 4 1.043 75
17 16 GeorgiaTech ACC 7-5 0.683 1.315 21 0.640 13
18 20 SouthCarolina SEC 10-2 0.682 1.322 20 0.646 14
19 19 MichiganState B10 11-1 0.668 1.018 58 0.452 3
20 15 LSU SEC 9-3 0.663 1.478 14 0.776 37
21 23 UCLA Pac-12 9-3 0.625 1.333 19 0.702 26
22 21 BYU Ind. 8-4 0.605 1.306 22 0.700 25
23 22 CentralFlorida Amer 10-1 0.556 1.405 16 0.819 49
24 27 BowlingGreen MAC 9-3 0.537 1.052 54 0.570 9
25 26 Miami ACC 9-3 0.510 1.512 11 0.949 62

And the Big Ten in particular...

rk LW NCAA Team Conf Record Rating Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
5 4 OhioState B10 12-0 0.973 1.755 5 0.686 22
8 6 Wisconsin B10 9-3 0.887 1.287 25 0.460 5
19 19 MichiganState B10 11-1 0.668 1.018 58 0.452 3
34 45 Michigan B10 7-5 0.395 1.259 30 0.853 55
36 41 Iowa B10 8-4 0.385 0.997 59 0.650 16
48 55 PennState B10 7-5 0.283 1.051 55 0.780 38
50 49 Indiana B10 5-7 0.215 1.639 8 1.380 112
51 51 Nebraska B10 8-4 0.211 1.175 41 0.957 64
60 60 Minnesota B10 8-4 0.113 0.856 92 0.755 32
68 69 Northwestern B10 5-7 0.016 0.912 78 0.897 60
74 72 Illinois B10 4-8 -0.038 1.185 38 1.226 103
113 114 Purdue B10 1-11 -0.619 0.579 118 1.154 96

Some thoughts...

A reminder that upsets happen, y'all. That's why they call them upsets. Here is a list of results from this past Saturday(ish):

WIS 24 PSU 31

AUB 34 ALA 28

FrSU 52 SJSU 62

OSU 42 MICH 43 (alternate reality where the 2-pt conversion was successful)

With the arguable exception of the Iron Bowl, all of those games featured wins by a clearly inferior opponent (no offense to Penn State, who clearly outplayed us yesterday). I think most of us are conceptually aware that upsets exist, so this shouldn't be too controversial. But it's a good thing to remember when trying to use head-to-head results to compare teams - they're often not that useful.

SUCK IT ALABAMA. This isn't really anything to discuss, I just felt it needed to be said. Of course, it's not like failing to secure a division title has kept Saban from getting a national championship before. Speaking of the SEC and BCS bids...

Buckeyes better be nouveau-Tiger fans this week. (side note: why are there so many damn Tigers in the South?). Let me be clear: regardless of what it says up on those tables up there, I'm a firm believer that an undefeated major conference team should always get preference over any single-loss teams (one exception: 2012 Ohio State was clearly not a championship level team).

And while I think voters will continue to put Ohio State at #2, it might be close enough that the computers will come into play. I don't know the exact formulas, obviously, but I think there's a very real possibility that Auburn comes out ahead in the binary minds. I say this because that's how it is currently in my BCS-style spreadsheets:

1 - Auburn

2 - Ohio State

3 - Missouri

4 - Florida State

These don't have any bearing on the actual BCS, but I like to think they give a general idea of how the computers might act. It'll be interesting to watch what happens next week, at least!

Congratulations to Purdue! The 2013 Winner for BCS Crapulence. I'm fairly certain next week won't change that:

#113 - (B10) Purdue

#111 - (AAC) South Florida

#110 - (AAC) Connecticut

#106 - (B12) Kansas

#103 - (P12) California

THE PICKINGS

Lines taken from 5Dimes.eu here, as of 2013-12-04. Home teams highlighted in blue.

Overcat Underdog Proj Winner Conf Line Hoegh Pick vs Spd
Auburn Missouri Auburn 58% 2.0 2.6 Auburn
FloridaState Duke FloridaState 99% 29.0 27.5 Duke
FresnoState UtahState UtahState 79% 3.5 -10.9 UtahState
NorthernIllinois BowlingGreen BowlingGreen 86% 4.5 -14.8 BowlingGreen
OhioState MichiganState OhioState 74% 5.5 8.6 OhioState
Louisville Cincinnati Louisville 85% 3.5 14.2 Louisville
OklahomaState Oklahoma OklahomaState 76% 9.5 9.6 OklahomaState
Baylor Texas Baylor 93% 15.0 19.4 Baylor
Marshall Rice Marshall 72% 5.0 7.8 Marshall
ArizonaState Stanford ArizonaState 72% 3.0 8.0 ArizonaState

Just for fun, I'll offer a final score prediction for the Big Ten Championship. I don't entirely trust the formula, but the algebra works out so it matches my projected margins:

OSU - 29.6

MSU - 21.0

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