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Hoegher's Rankings and Pick: WEEK SIXTEEN

There's snow outside y'all! Not only does it make it truly the holiday season, but I'm really happy I got my long run out of the way yesterday. Also, I have a tree to get needles all over my living room!

THE RANKINGS

rk LW NCAA Team Conf Record Rating Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
1 1 FloridaState ACC 13-0 1.441 1.962 1 0.401 2
2 2 Alabama SEC 11-1 1.225 1.485 12 0.322 1
3 3 Baylor B12 11-1 1.045 1.922 2 0.730 29
4 7 Auburn SEC 12-1 0.938 1.728 6 0.699 23
5 5 OhioState B10 12-1 0.932 1.762 5 0.728 28
6 6 Oregon Pac-12 10-2 0.930 1.687 7 0.679 18
7 4 ArizonaState Pac-12 10-3 0.909 1.783 4 0.765 35
8 8 Wisconsin B10 9-3 0.874 1.277 27 0.463 4
9 9 Clemson ACC 10-2 0.850 1.560 10 0.665 16
10 10 OklahomaState B12 10-2 0.770 1.478 13 0.679 19
11 12 Missouri SEC 11-2 0.760 1.450 15 0.668 17
12 11 Louisville Amer 11-1 0.750 1.171 39 0.490 5
13 14 Stanford Pac-12 11-2 0.749 1.246 30 0.539 7
14 13 Washington Pac-12 8-4 0.746 1.376 16 0.629 11
15 19 MichiganState B10 12-1 0.695 1.062 52 0.461 3
16 16 TexasAM SEC 8-4 0.682 1.843 3 1.038 75
17 15 Georgia SEC 8-4 0.681 1.621 8 0.867 58
18 17 GeorgiaTech ACC 7-5 0.672 1.307 21 0.643 12
19 18 SouthCarolina SEC 10-2 0.665 1.311 20 0.652 14
20 20 LSU SEC 9-3 0.656 1.470 14 0.776 36
21 21 UCLA Pac-12 9-3 0.616 1.326 18 0.705 24
22 22 BYU Ind. 8-4 0.597 1.306 24 0.707 25
23 24 BowlingGreen MAC 10-3 0.548 1.086 50 0.586 9
24 29 Oklahoma B12 10-2 0.521 1.196 35 0.691 21
25 23 CentralFlorida Amer 11-1 0.504 1.313 19 0.796 39

And the Big Ten in particular...

rk LW B10 Conf Record Rating Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
5 5 OhioState B10 12-1 0.932 1.762 5 0.728 28
8 8 Wisconsin B10 9-3 0.874 1.277 27 0.463 4
15 19 MichiganState B10 12-1 0.695 1.062 52 0.461 3
32 34 Michigan B10 7-5 0.398 1.248 29 0.842 52
36 36 Iowa B10 8-4 0.372 0.983 60 0.649 13
48 48 PennState B10 7-5 0.272 1.051 54 0.790 38
51 51 Nebraska B10 8-4 0.203 1.166 42 0.956 63
53 50 Indiana B10 5-7 0.186 1.599 9 1.377 112
62 60 Minnesota B10 8-4 0.109 0.853 93 0.756 32
69 68 Northwestern B10 5-7 0.006 0.903 78 0.897 59
73 74 Illinois B10 4-8 -0.048 1.174 38 1.227 104
113 113 Purdue B10 1-11 -0.625 0.574 119 1.153 96

Some thoughts...

SCHADENFREUDE: pleasure derived from the misfortunes of others [link]. This necessarily means that you are perhaps lacking in personal achievement enough to satisfy your needs, but that doesn't matter because this is college football. Schadenfreude is what we're all about. Sparty probably has their own things to worry about here, but for everyone else? Taste it. Doesn't it taste sweet? Oh, it's a veritable bounty of sucrose. Also, I've been waiting to bust this out all season. Took a little longer than I would've liked, but:

OHIO STATE LOSS TRACKER: ONE

Glorious.

FINE SPARTY. You are probably a bit under-rated here. Making the assumption that Connor Cook provides a different level of play than Andrew Maxwell (I think that's safe), then we should consider the current iteration of Michigan State a different one than the one that started the season (at least on offense). Just using the offensive performance since Cook took over (I'm using Iowa as the starting point, but feel free to point out if I made a mistake) and calculating accordingly:

whirrrrrrr

click-click-click

ding!

Michigan State would rate out #10 overall currently. Is that reasonable? I think that's reasonable for an offense that still had 14 pt "outbursts" against Purdue and Minnesota. Enjoy your roses, I have to come up with a whole new shtick to make fun of Sparty with. DAMMIT.

We should talk about Florida State. This may have gotten lost in the whole Jameis Winston... thing..., as well as Auburn's penchant for the dramatic, but Florida State is really good. Like, historically good. I've previously mentioned that I've got ratings for college football going back to 1930 and have done my best to reasonably compare across eras. Whether or not you can actually compare the achievements of 1966 Notre Dame to 2001 Miami is worth plenty of grains of salt, but we can at least see how the modern era stacks up.

Of the Top 25 (since 1930) that I have, there are five teams that played in the 2000's and 2010's. They are:

#10 - 2001 Miami

#13 - 2005 Texas

#19 - 2008 USC (2008 Florida ranks #31)

#21 - 2012 Alabama

You'll notice that's only four teams listed. That's because the current Florida State edition comes in at #12 right now. Obviously, there are still plenty of games to be played, but there's virtually no way that Florida State doesn't still find themselves in this group after those are done. Auburn may seem like a "team of destiny" but I'm pretty sure Florida State is going to hammer them. And really, isn't a SEC team losing what America wants?

THE PICKING

I'll update this with the line when it comes out.

Overcat Underdog Proj Winner Conf Line Hoegh Pick vs Spd
Navy Army Navy 91% 13.0 17.5 Navy
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