There's snow outside y'all! Not only does it make it truly the holiday season, but I'm really happy I got my long run out of the way yesterday. Also, I have a tree to get needles all over my living room!
THE RANKINGS
rk | LW | NCAA Team | Conf | Record | Rating | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 | FloridaState | ACC | 13-0 | 1.441 | 1.962 | 1 | 0.401 | 2 | |
2 | 2 | Alabama | SEC | 11-1 | 1.225 | 1.485 | 12 | 0.322 | 1 | |
3 | 3 | Baylor | B12 | 11-1 | 1.045 | 1.922 | 2 | 0.730 | 29 | |
4 | 7 | Auburn | SEC | 12-1 | 0.938 | 1.728 | 6 | 0.699 | 23 | |
5 | 5 | OhioState | B10 | 12-1 | 0.932 | 1.762 | 5 | 0.728 | 28 | |
6 | 6 | Oregon | Pac-12 | 10-2 | 0.930 | 1.687 | 7 | 0.679 | 18 | |
7 | 4 | ArizonaState | Pac-12 | 10-3 | 0.909 | 1.783 | 4 | 0.765 | 35 | |
8 | 8 | Wisconsin | B10 | 9-3 | 0.874 | 1.277 | 27 | 0.463 | 4 | |
9 | 9 | Clemson | ACC | 10-2 | 0.850 | 1.560 | 10 | 0.665 | 16 | |
10 | 10 | OklahomaState | B12 | 10-2 | 0.770 | 1.478 | 13 | 0.679 | 19 | |
11 | 12 | Missouri | SEC | 11-2 | 0.760 | 1.450 | 15 | 0.668 | 17 | |
12 | 11 | Louisville | Amer | 11-1 | 0.750 | 1.171 | 39 | 0.490 | 5 | |
13 | 14 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 11-2 | 0.749 | 1.246 | 30 | 0.539 | 7 | |
14 | 13 | Washington | Pac-12 | 8-4 | 0.746 | 1.376 | 16 | 0.629 | 11 | |
15 | 19 | MichiganState | B10 | 12-1 | 0.695 | 1.062 | 52 | 0.461 | 3 | |
16 | 16 | TexasAM | SEC | 8-4 | 0.682 | 1.843 | 3 | 1.038 | 75 | |
17 | 15 | Georgia | SEC | 8-4 | 0.681 | 1.621 | 8 | 0.867 | 58 | |
18 | 17 | GeorgiaTech | ACC | 7-5 | 0.672 | 1.307 | 21 | 0.643 | 12 | |
19 | 18 | SouthCarolina | SEC | 10-2 | 0.665 | 1.311 | 20 | 0.652 | 14 | |
20 | 20 | LSU | SEC | 9-3 | 0.656 | 1.470 | 14 | 0.776 | 36 | |
21 | 21 | UCLA | Pac-12 | 9-3 | 0.616 | 1.326 | 18 | 0.705 | 24 | |
22 | 22 | BYU | Ind. | 8-4 | 0.597 | 1.306 | 24 | 0.707 | 25 | |
23 | 24 | BowlingGreen | MAC | 10-3 | 0.548 | 1.086 | 50 | 0.586 | 9 | |
24 | 29 | Oklahoma | B12 | 10-2 | 0.521 | 1.196 | 35 | 0.691 | 21 | |
25 | 23 | CentralFlorida | Amer | 11-1 | 0.504 | 1.313 | 19 | 0.796 | 39 |
And the Big Ten in particular...
rk | LW | B10 | Conf | Record | Rating | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk |
5 | 5 | OhioState | B10 | 12-1 | 0.932 | 1.762 | 5 | 0.728 | 28 |
8 | 8 | Wisconsin | B10 | 9-3 | 0.874 | 1.277 | 27 | 0.463 | 4 |
15 | 19 | MichiganState | B10 | 12-1 | 0.695 | 1.062 | 52 | 0.461 | 3 |
32 | 34 | Michigan | B10 | 7-5 | 0.398 | 1.248 | 29 | 0.842 | 52 |
36 | 36 | Iowa | B10 | 8-4 | 0.372 | 0.983 | 60 | 0.649 | 13 |
48 | 48 | PennState | B10 | 7-5 | 0.272 | 1.051 | 54 | 0.790 | 38 |
51 | 51 | Nebraska | B10 | 8-4 | 0.203 | 1.166 | 42 | 0.956 | 63 |
53 | 50 | Indiana | B10 | 5-7 | 0.186 | 1.599 | 9 | 1.377 | 112 |
62 | 60 | Minnesota | B10 | 8-4 | 0.109 | 0.853 | 93 | 0.756 | 32 |
69 | 68 | Northwestern | B10 | 5-7 | 0.006 | 0.903 | 78 | 0.897 | 59 |
73 | 74 | Illinois | B10 | 4-8 | -0.048 | 1.174 | 38 | 1.227 | 104 |
113 | 113 | Purdue | B10 | 1-11 | -0.625 | 0.574 | 119 | 1.153 | 96 |
Some thoughts...
SCHADENFREUDE: pleasure derived from the misfortunes of others [link]. This necessarily means that you are perhaps lacking in personal achievement enough to satisfy your needs, but that doesn't matter because this is college football. Schadenfreude is what we're all about. Sparty probably has their own things to worry about here, but for everyone else? Taste it. Doesn't it taste sweet? Oh, it's a veritable bounty of sucrose. Also, I've been waiting to bust this out all season. Took a little longer than I would've liked, but:
OHIO STATE LOSS TRACKER: ONE
Glorious.
FINE SPARTY. You are probably a bit under-rated here. Making the assumption that Connor Cook provides a different level of play than Andrew Maxwell (I think that's safe), then we should consider the current iteration of Michigan State a different one than the one that started the season (at least on offense). Just using the offensive performance since Cook took over (I'm using Iowa as the starting point, but feel free to point out if I made a mistake) and calculating accordingly:
whirrrrrrr
click-click-click
ding!
Michigan State would rate out #10 overall currently. Is that reasonable? I think that's reasonable for an offense that still had 14 pt "outbursts" against Purdue and Minnesota. Enjoy your roses, I have to come up with a whole new shtick to make fun of Sparty with. DAMMIT.
We should talk about Florida State. This may have gotten lost in the whole Jameis Winston... thing..., as well as Auburn's penchant for the dramatic, but Florida State is really good. Like, historically good. I've previously mentioned that I've got ratings for college football going back to 1930 and have done my best to reasonably compare across eras. Whether or not you can actually compare the achievements of 1966 Notre Dame to 2001 Miami is worth plenty of grains of salt, but we can at least see how the modern era stacks up.
Of the Top 25 (since 1930) that I have, there are five teams that played in the 2000's and 2010's. They are:
#10 - 2001 Miami
#13 - 2005 Texas
#19 - 2008 USC (2008 Florida ranks #31)
#21 - 2012 Alabama
You'll notice that's only four teams listed. That's because the current Florida State edition comes in at #12 right now. Obviously, there are still plenty of games to be played, but there's virtually no way that Florida State doesn't still find themselves in this group after those are done. Auburn may seem like a "team of destiny" but I'm pretty sure Florida State is going to hammer them. And really, isn't a SEC team losing what America wants?
THE PICKING
I'll update this with the line when it comes out.
Overcat | Underdog | Proj Winner | Conf | Line | Hoegh | Pick vs Spd |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Navy | Army | Navy | 91% | 13.0 | 17.5 | Navy |
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