Remember, these percentages merely reflect the outcome of a mathematical forumula. They don't represent Ken Pomeroy's opinion, so don't yell at him. Yell at me. You can check out the entire field's odds of winning here.
Also, consider this your opening thread for today's games. Michigan State and Michigan are on tap.
Indiana: 16.2 percent
The Hoosiers are considered the best bet by far if you want to choose a Big Ten team to win the whole tournament, and if you look at the bracket, you can see why. Not only is Indiana on the opposite side of the bracket as the overall top seed Louisville, but it's hard to imagine the Hoosiers tripping up before the regional final. Sure, Syracuse and UNLV both have tough teams, but the Orange were in a bit of a tailspin prior to the Big East tourney, and the Rebels are opening versus a 12-seed in Cal that they only beat by a single point in the regular season
Ohio State: 5.3 percent
Thanks to its run of success at the end of the season, it seems that Ohio State is getting just as much Final Four love from the TV analysts as IU is. So why are the fancy numbers favoring Indiana more heavily? Well for one, the KenPom rankings still consider the Hoosiers as a better team, regardless of what happened in the conference tournament. Second, the opponents that the Bucks have to face are tougher, even in the early going.
Both Notre Dame and Iowa State pose more of an upset threat than either of Indiana's potential second round opponents, and then there's New Mexico looming as potential regional semifinal opponent. If Ohio State can get into the round of eight, it will probably be favored against its opponent there, but the journey will be strenuous.
Wisconsin: 2.3 percent
Wisconsin didn't see a boost in its seeding after toppling Indiana in the Big Ten tourney, but at least the Badgers chances of winning the whole thing are better than a couple of teams that the committee liked better. I can't really tell you why, though. In the
first second round, Wisconsin plays an Ole Miss squad that everyone knows is worth more than a 12-seed.
If the Badgers reach regionals, the Ohio State/New Mexico combo may be the toughest two seed and the toughest three seed in the bracket. Of course, just to get to a match with one of those teams, Wisconsin would need to defeat Gonzaga, which KenPom's stats consider the fourth-best team in the country.
Michigan State: 2.1 percent
Poor Sparty got screwed into playing in the same bracket as top overall seed Louisville, and it also has Ryan Kelly and Duke to deal with. While a three-point shooting contest between big men Kelly and Adreian Payne would be all sorts of fun to watch, first Michigan State must survive Valparaiso and the approximately 100,000 replays that CBS will show of Bryce Drew's 1998 game-winning shot against Ole Miss. Did you know Drew is now the coach of this year's squad? And did you know that Valpo used a similarly miraculous buzzer beater to get past Green Bay in the Horizon League semifinals? Don't let this one get close, Sparty!
Michigan: 2.1 percent
Okay, I'll admit it. I have Michigan going down against South Dakota State in my personal bracket. I love me some Jackrabbits. And I can totally name another kid on their team not named Nate Wolters. Really, they have this Jordan Dykstra kid (I only had to look up his first name, I promise) who can post you up. And Michigan doesn't have anyone who's great at defending the post!
I will be rooting for the Wolverines, though. Kind of. Unless CBS shows too many cutaways of Tim Hardaway Sr. I do not like that man. Anyway, the good news for UM is that if it can get past SDSU and VCU or Akron, it may have to face Kansas, which is the worst one-seed in the bracket according to KenPom (and me).
Minnesota: 0.2 percent
So you're saying there's a chance? 11-seed Minnesota is actually favored in its opening game versus UCLA thanks to a foot injury incurred by star guard Jordan Adams. In the round of 32, the Gohpers likely have a Florida team on tap that was recently upset by both Kentucky and Ole Miss. That doesn't seem like an impossible hill to climb, but Minnesota will probably need to hope for Georgetown to get upset if it hopes to advance past the Sweet Sixteen.
Illinois: 0.1 percent
I didn't look this up, but I'm pretty sure no other team in the field has already taken down a pair of 1-seeds this season. That said, it will take a lot of magic to get the Illini into a potential rematch with Indiana in the regional final. Colorado is up first in a manageable game (though it wouldn't be below the Illini to blow it), but Brandon Paul will need to pull out all the stops if an upset of 2-seed Miami is in store.