FanPost

Hoegher's 2013 Previews: PURDUE BOILERMAKERS

Hmm...

THE PAST

NOTE: all historical data is taken from James Howell's excellent resource and/or Sports-Reference (college football edition)

Purdue Overall Ratings

Purdue Adj Off/Def

Purdue Win Pct/Luck

Winning percentage and "Luck" are plotted on a win-pct basis (mind-blowing, I know). Adj Off/Def/Eff/Marg and Resume rankings are plotted on a percentile-ranking basis. Thus, a team rating out in the 99th percentile would be awesome, a team rating out in the 1st percentile would be not-so-awesome.

THE FUTURE

CFBStats.com and FBSchedules.com are used for reference here. I highly recommend both sites.

Projected Rating: #N/A (#N/A)

Conf Proj Rec Conf Rec Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Adj Eff rk Adj Marg rk
#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #### #N/A #### #N/A #### #N/A ####

Schedule SOS rk Conf SOS rk n-con SOS rk
Rating/Rk #N/A #### #N/A #### #N/A ####

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8
#N/A #### #N/A #### #N/A #### #N/A #### #N/A #### #N/A #### #N/A #### #N/A ####
Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13 Week 14 Week 15 Week 16
#N/A #### #N/A #### #N/A #### #N/A #### #N/A #### #N/A #### #N/A #### #N/A ####

The number next to each opponent represents the projected ranking for that team. The percentages represent projected likelihood of winning a particular game, helpfully color-coded for your benefit (no regard for home/away, though that status is noted). The team names have been adjusted to better fit your screen, I hope they are obvious enough. You are free to ignore everything and tell me why I'm wrong, you're probably right.

Purdue 2013 Profile

This is an attempt to quickly illustrate a team's outlook for the coming season. These aren't unique (my personal experience was a Pokemon Yellow Guide from my youth): maxing out the pentagon is better. Winning percentage should be obvious, but other than that: the numbers here represent percentile rankings. 99th percentile is good, 1st percentile is less so.

OFFENSE: Huh.

DEFENSE: That's weird.

HOEGHER'S BIASED PREDICTION

??-?? It is what it is, I guess!

QUICK REFERENCE:

Adj Off - analogous to scoring offense, adjusted for opponent strength.

Adj Def - analogous to scoring defense, adjusted for opponent strength.

Adj Eff - analogous to scoring ratio, adjusted for opponent strength.

Adj Marg - analogous to scoring margin, adjusted for opponent strength.

Luck - difference between actual winning percentage and expected winning percentage.

Resume - analogous to win/loss record, adjusted for opponent strength.

For for information see here: HOEGHER'S PRIMER.

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