FanPost

Hoegher's 2013 Previews: MARYLAND & RUTGERS (abbreviated)

Fair warning: there is little to no comment being added here. I don't want Maryland and Rutgers here, and they aren't even Big Ten teams at the moment. Nevertheless, I recognize that they are going to be here, so I might as well give some display of what my probably-very-wrong system gives. FUN TIDBIT AND SPOILER: Maryland is crappy and way behind Rutgers. Enjoy Randy Edsall and whatever trash can currently occupies the quarterback position!

MARYLAND LAXBROS

THE PAST

NOTE: all historical data is taken from James Howell's excellent resource and/or Sports-Reference (college football edition)

Maryland Overall Ratings

Maryland Adj Off/Def

Maryland Win Pct/Luck

Winning percentage and "Luck" are plotted on a win-pct basis (mind-blowing, I know). Adj Off/Def/Eff/Marg and Resume rankings are plotted on a percentile-ranking basis. Thus, a team rating out in the 99th percentile would be awesome, a team rating out in the 1st percentile would be not-so-awesome.

THE FUTURE

CFBStats.com and FBSchedules.com are used for reference here. I highly recommend both sites.

Projected Rating: -0.138 (80th)

Conf Proj Rec Conf Rec Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Adj Eff rk Adj Marg rk
ACC 5-7 2-6 0.847 89 0.979 69 0.464 81 -0.131 80
Schedule SOS rk Conf SOS rk n-con SOS rk
Rating/Rk 0.037 48 0.169 50 -0.227 61
Week 1 (H) Week 2 (H) Week 3 (V) Week 4 (N?) Week 5 Week 6 (V) Week 7 (H) Week 8 (V)
97 - FIU 62% 124 - FCS 98% 62 - UConn 37% 35 - WeVirg 18% 0 - BYE 0% 5 - FlorSt 2% 88 - Virg 53% 96 - WakeFor 61%
Week 9 (H) Week 10 Week 11(H) Week 12 (V) Week 13 (H) Week 14 (V) Week 15 Week 16
21 - FuClem 8% 0 - BYE 0% 59 - ORANGE 34% 24 - VTech 13% 76 - BostCo 47% 53 - NCState 28% 0 - BYE 0% 0 - BYE 0%

The number next to each opponent represents the projected ranking for that team. The percentages represent projected likelihood of winning a particular game, helpfully color-coded for your benefit (no regard for home/away, though that status is noted). The team names have been adjusted to better fit your screen, I hope they are obvious enough. You are free to ignore everything and tell me why I'm wrong, you're probably right.

Maryland 2013 Profile

This is an attempt to quickly illustrate a team's outlook for the coming season. These aren't unique (my personal experience was a Pokemon Yellow Guide from my youth): maxing out the pentagon is better. Winning percentage should be obvious, but other than that: the numbers here represent percentile rankings. 99th percentile is good, 1st percentile is less so.

HOEGHER'S BIASED PREDICTION

??-??. Don't care, please go away.

BUTTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS

THE PAST

NOTE: all historical data is taken from James Howell's excellent resource and/or Sports-Reference (college football edition)

Rutgers Overall Ratings

Rutgers Adj Off/Def

Rutgers Win Pct/Luck

Winning percentage and "Luck" are plotted on a win-pct basis (mind-blowing, I know). Adj Off/Def/Eff/Marg and Resume rankings are plotted on a percentile-ranking basis. Thus, a team rating out in the 99th percentile would be awesome, a team rating out in the 1st percentile would be not-so-awesome.

THE FUTURE

CFBStats.com and FBSchedules.com are used for reference here. I highly recommend both sites.

Projected Rating: 0.274 (40th)

Conf Proj Rec Conf Rec Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Adj Eff rk Adj Marg rk
Amer 8-4 5-3 0.870 86 0.635 10 0.578 32 0.236 44
Schedule SOS rk Conf SOS rk n-con SOS rk
Rating/Rk -0.073 71 0.072 65 -0.363 91
Week 1 (V) Week 2 (H) Week 3 (H) Week 4 (H) Week 5 Week 6 (V) Week 7 (V) Week 8
57 - FresSt 64% 124 - FCS 99% 122 - EaMich 99% 49 - OZARKS 56% 0 - BYE 0% 65 - SMU 71% 50 - L'ville 57% 0 - BYE 0%
Week 9 (H) Week 10 (H) Week 11 Week 12 (H) Week 13 (V) Week 14 (V) Week 15 (H) Week 16
64 - Houst 71% 89 - Temple 83% 0 - BYE 0% 29 - Cincy 42% 48 - CentFlo 56% 62 - UConn 70% 68 - SoFlor 73% 0 - BYE 0%

The number next to each opponent represents the projected ranking for that team. The percentages represent projected likelihood of winning a particular game, helpfully color-coded for your benefit (no regard for home/away, though that status is noted). The team names have been adjusted to better fit your screen, I hope they are obvious enough. You are free to ignore everything and tell me why I'm wrong, you're probably right.

Rutgers 2013 Profile

This is an attempt to quickly illustrate a team's outlook for the coming season. These aren't unique (my personal experience was a Pokemon Yellow Guide from my youth): maxing out the pentagon is better. Winning percentage should be obvious, but other than that: the numbers here represent percentile rankings. 99th percentile is good, 1st percentile is less so.

HOEGHER'S BIASED PREDICTION

??-??. Don't care, please go away. Probably better than Maryland.

QUICK REFERENCE:

Adj Off - analogous to scoring offense, adjusted for opponent strength.

Adj Def - analogous to scoring defense, adjusted for opponent strength.

Adj Eff - analogous to scoring ratio, adjusted for opponent strength.

Adj Marg - analogous to scoring margin, adjusted for opponent strength.

Luck - difference between actual winning percentage and expected winning percentage.

Resume - analogous to win/loss record, adjusted for opponent strength.

For for information see here: HOEGHER'S PRIMER.

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