FanPost

Hoegher's 2013 Previews: WISCONSIN BADGERS

So work has ramped up considerably for me in the past few weeks. Because of this, I've had much less time to sit down and write these things (also, I'm trying to interact with girls of various natures, and that tends to be a bit incompatible with sitting shirtless in front of a computer). That's a shame, because trust me: football is way more fun to read about than what various inscrutable software errors mean.

Fortunately, this being Wisconsin week, I don't really have to bolster my knowledge that much. Still, this is going to be short and sweet. Maybe if I have time to go back, I'll add some more commentating this weekend. I have a customer going through a software upgrade though, so I may be stuck helping them instead (fingers crossed all goes well!).

THE PAST

NOTE: all historical data is taken from James Howell's excellent resource and/or Sports-Reference (college football edition)

Wisconsin Overall Ratings

Wisconsin Adj Off/Def

Wisconsin Win Pct/Luck

Winning percentage and "Luck" are plotted on a win-pct basis (mind-blowing, I know). Adj Off/Def/Eff/Marg and Resume rankings are plotted on a percentile-ranking basis. Thus, a team rating out in the 99th percentile would be awesome, a team rating out in the 1st percentile would be not-so-awesome.

Wisconsin's coaches, ranked:

1) Ivy Williamson

2) Barry Alvarez

3) BERT

4) Milt Bruhn

5) Dave McClain

L) Joe Coatta

THE FUTURE

CFBStats.com and FBSchedules.com are used for reference here. I highly recommend both sites.

Projected Rating: 0.490 (22nd)

Conf Proj Rec Conf Rec Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Adj Eff rk Adj Marg rk
B10 9-3 6-2 1.249 23 0.759 24 0.622 21 0.491 22
Schedule SOS rk Conf SOS rk n-con SOS rk
Rating/Rk -0.025 64 0.125 58 -0.326 85
Week 1 (H) Week 2 (H) Week 3 (V) Week 4 (H) Week 5 (V) Week 6 Week 7 (H) Week 8 (V)
125 - UMass 99% 124 - FCS 99% 28 - ArizSt 60% 70 - ????? 87% 14 - OhioSt 40% 0 - BYE 0% 37 - justNW 66% 84 - LOLinois 91%
Week 9 Week 10 (V) Week 11 (H) Week 12 (H) Week 13 (V) Week 14 (H) Week 15 Week 16
0 - BYE 0% 51 - Iowegia 74% 25 - BrigYng 58% 90 - India 94% 78 - Minny 90% 19 - PennSt 46% 0 - BYE 0% 0 - BYE 0%

The number next to each opponent represents the projected ranking for that team. The percentages represent projected likelihood of winning a particular game, helpfully color-coded for your benefit (no regard for home/away, though that status is noted). The team names have been adjusted to better fit your screen, I hope they are obvious enough. You are free to ignore everything and tell me why I'm wrong, you're probably right.

Wisconsin 2013 Profile

This is an attempt to quickly illustrate a team's outlook for the coming season. These aren't unique (my personal experience was a Pokemon Yellow Guide from my youth): maxing out the pentagon is better. Winning percentage should be obvious, but other than that: the numbers here represent percentile rankings. 99th percentile is good, 1st percentile is less so.

OFFENSE:

QB: Joel Stave (SO, 58.5%, 9.3 yds/att, 1 effing pass in the Rose Bowl)

Also of note: Curt Phillips (SR, 56.8%, 6.7 yds/att), Tanner McEvoy (JC, 3-star)

RB: James White (SR, 6.5 yds/car), Melvin Gordon (SO, 10.0 yds/car, ∞ humiliations of Nebraska)

Also of note: Derek Watt (SO, FB, brother of J.J. Watt), Corey Clement (RB, 4-star)

WR/TE: Jared Abbredaris (SR, WR, 17.1 yds/rec), Jacob Pedersen (SR, TE, 13.2 yds/rec)

Also of note: Jordan Frederick (SO, WR, 11.5 yds/rec), Robert Wheelwright (WR, 3-star), Tanner McEvoy (JC, 3-star)

DEFENSE:

DL:

Beau Allen (SR, 7.5 TFL), Brendan Kelly (SR, 6.0 TFL), Vince Biegel (FR, 4-star in 2012), Alec James (DE, 4-star)

LB: Chris Borland (SR, 104 tackles, 1 suplex), Ethan Armstrong (SR, 93 tackles)

Also of note: Garret Dooley (ILB, 4-star)

DB: Dezmen Southward (SR, 4 PBU), Marcus Trotter (JR, 1 PBU), Sojourn Shelton (CB, 4-star), dust in the wind

HOEGHER'S BIASED PREDICTION

ALL THE WINS. Like I would do anything different. It does say "biased predictions" after all. Also, the schedule gets much easier switching out Michigan State and Nebraska for Northwestern and Iowa. Pipe down Northwestern fans, one bowl win does not change things that much.

QUICK REFERENCE:

Adj Off - analogous to scoring offense, adjusted for opponent strength.

Adj Def - analogous to scoring defense, adjusted for opponent strength.

Adj Eff - analogous to scoring ratio, adjusted for opponent strength.

Adj Marg - analogous to scoring margin, adjusted for opponent strength.

Luck - difference between actual winning percentage and expected winning percentage.

Resume - analogous to win/loss record, adjusted for opponent strength.

For for information see here: HOEGHER'S PRIMER.

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