Hoegher's 2013 Previews: NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS

I'm terrible, I apologize. I have both:

1) Work piling up (Epic brings in the checks, but I did sleep at the office yesterday)

2) A girl to get insecure about (I'm amazing, but they don't always realize it right away)

I did intend to flesh out this (amateur) preview tonight, but the bar I went to had internet problems. On the plus side, I was able to configure completion-matching for some of my spreadsheets in Excel (somewhat, there seem to be some bugs still):



NOTE: all historical data is taken from James Howell's excellent resource and/or Sports-Reference (college football edition)

Nebraska Overall Ratings

Nebraska Adj Off/Def

Nebraska Win Pct/Luck

Winning percentage and "Luck" are plotted on a win-pct basis (mind-blowing, I know). Adj Off/Def/Eff/Marg and Resume rankings are plotted on a percentile-ranking basis. Thus, a team rating out in the 99th percentile would be awesome, a team rating out in the 1st percentile would be not-so-awesome.

THE FUTURE and are used for reference here. I highly recommend both sites.

Projected Rating: 0.535 (18th)

Conf Proj Rec Conf Rec Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Adj Eff rk Adj Marg rk
B10 10-2 6-2 1.356 11 0.801 31 0.629 20 0.556 16
Schedule SOS rk Conf SOS rk n-con SOS rk
Rating/Rk -0.017 62 0.165 52 -0.383 98
Week 1 (H) Week 2 (H) Week 3 (H) Week 4 (H) Week 5 Week 6 (H) Week 7 (V) Week 8
105 - WHY'O 99% 93 - SoMiss 96% 52 - UCLA 77% 124 - FCS 99% 0 - BYE 0% 84 - LOLinois 93% 70 - ????? 89% 0 - BYE 0%
Week 9 (V) Week 10 (H) Week 11 (V) Week 12 (H) Week 13 (V) Week 14 (H) Week 15 Week 16
78 - Minny 92% 37 - justNW 70% 27 - FuMich 63% 30 - SParty 66% 19 - PennSt 50% 51 - Iowegia 77% 0 - BYE 0% 0 - BYE 0%

The number next to each opponent represents the projected ranking for that team. The percentages represent projected likelihood of winning a particular game, helpfully color-coded for your benefit (no regard for home/away, though that status is noted). The team names have been adjusted to better fit your screen, I hope they are obvious enough. You are free to ignore everything and tell me why I'm wrong, you're probably right.

Nebraska 2013 Profile

This is an attempt to quickly illustrate a team's outlook for the coming season. These aren't unique (my personal experience was a Pokemon Yellow Guide from my youth): maxing out the pentagon is better. Winning percentage should be obvious, but other than that: the numbers here represent percentile rankings. 99th percentile is good, 1st percentile is less so.




9-3 Wisconsin scored again. But also Taylor Martinez. He's better (as a college QB), but still a crappy thrower. This still applies.


Adj Off - analogous to scoring offense, adjusted for opponent strength.

Adj Def - analogous to scoring defense, adjusted for opponent strength.

Adj Eff - analogous to scoring ratio, adjusted for opponent strength.

Adj Marg - analogous to scoring margin, adjusted for opponent strength.

Luck - difference between actual winning percentage and expected winning percentage.

Resume - analogous to win/loss record, adjusted for opponent strength.

For for information see here: HOEGHER'S PRIMER.

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