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Hoegher's 2013 Previews: OHIO STATE BUCKEYES

I'm accepting defeat now. My schedule for the week:

TUESDAY: Work, Ultimate, run, pack for move

WEDNESDAY: Work, dinner date (wish me luck, she's cute!), pack for move

THURSDAY: Work, run, Duck Blind

FRIDAY: Move, run

WEEKEND: and more of the same.

THE PAST

NOTE: all historical data is taken from James Howell's excellent resource and/or Sports-Reference (college football edition)

Ohio State Overall Ratings

Ohio State Adj Off/Def

Ohio State Win Pct/Luck

Winning percentage and "Luck" are plotted on a win-pct basis (mind-blowing, I know). Adj Off/Def/Eff/Marg and Resume rankings are plotted on a percentile-ranking basis. Thus, a team rating out in the 99th percentile would be awesome, a team rating out in the 1st percentile would be not-so-awesome.

THE FUTURE

CFBStats.com and FBSchedules.com are used for reference here. I highly recommend both sites.

Projected Rating: 0.606 (14th)

Conf Proj Rec Conf Rec Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Adj Eff rk Adj Marg rk
B10 10-2 6-2 1.290 17 0.687 16 0.652 14 0.603 12
Schedule SOS rk Conf SOS rk n-con SOS rk
Rating/Rk -0.009 57 0.175 49 -0.376 94
Week 1 (H) Week 2 (H) Week 3 (V) Week 4 (H) Week 5 (H) Week 6 (V) Week 7 Week 8 (H)
104 - BILLS 99% 72 - SDState 92% 67 - Calif 90% 124 - FCS 99% 22 - Wiscy 60% 37 - justNW 74% 0 - BYE 0% 51 - Iowegia 81%
Week 9 (H) Week 10 (V) Week 11 Week 12 (V) Week 13 (H) Week 14 (V) Week 15 Week 16
19 - PennSt 57% 70 - ????? 92% 0 - BYE 0% 84 - LOLinois 95% 90 - India 97% 27 - FuMich 68% 0 - BYE 0% 0 - BYE 0%

The number next to each opponent represents the projected ranking for that team. The percentages represent projected likelihood of winning a particular game, helpfully color-coded for your benefit (no regard for home/away, though that status is noted). The team names have been adjusted to better fit your screen, I hope they are obvious enough. You are free to ignore everything and tell me why I'm wrong, you're probably right.

Ohio State 2013 Profile

This is an attempt to quickly illustrate a team's outlook for the coming season. These aren't unique (my personal experience was a Pokemon Yellow Guide from my youth): maxing out the pentagon is better. Winning percentage should be obvious, but other than that: the numbers here represent percentile rankings. 99th percentile is good, 1st percentile is less so.

OFFENSE:

DEFENSE:

HOEGHER'S BIASED PREDICTION

10-2 I really hope they lose a non-conference game though. Y'all are dismissing that a bit too easily. San Diego State isn't terrible, and California should be improved (and Brandon Bigelow is still around).

QUICK REFERENCE:

Adj Off - analogous to scoring offense, adjusted for opponent strength.

Adj Def - analogous to scoring defense, adjusted for opponent strength.

Adj Eff - analogous to scoring ratio, adjusted for opponent strength.

Adj Marg - analogous to scoring margin, adjusted for opponent strength.

Luck - difference between actual winning percentage and expected winning percentage.

Resume - analogous to win/loss record, adjusted for opponent strength.

For for information see here: HOEGHER'S PRIMER.

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