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Hoegher's Rankings and Picks: WEEK FOUR

Remember, it's still early. Don't get too worked up about where your team is slotted here. Except Wisconsin, that's definitely accurate.

THE RANKINGS

rk LW NCAA Team Conf Record Rating Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
1 1 GeorgiaTech ACC 2-0 1.603 1.966 2 0.273 1
2 2 ArizonaState Pac-12 2-0 1.585 2.184 1 0.397 4
3 7 Oregon Pac-12 3-0 1.325 1.818 3 0.419 8
4 4 Wisconsin B10 2-1 1.240 1.489 17 0.314 2
5 10 Baylor B12 2-0 1.118 1.733 6 0.543 14
6 5 Alabama SEC 2-0 1.070 1.774 4 0.611 22
7 3 Washington Pac-12 2-0 1.042 1.392 29 0.405 6
8 79 FloridaState ACC 2-0 1.036 1.335 35 0.379 3
9 6 Oklahoma B12 3-0 0.968 1.395 27 0.463 10
10 38 PennState B10 2-1 0.934 1.604 9 0.620 25
11 15 Louisville Amer 3-0 0.916 1.241 40 0.412 7
12 12 CentralFlorida Amer 3-0 0.894 1.300 37 0.463 11
13 21 Auburn SEC 3-0 0.878 1.565 13 0.643 28
14 22 Duke ACC 2-1 0.870 1.454 19 0.577 18
15 26 Miami ACC 2-0 0.856 1.458 18 0.591 20
16 16 UtahState MWC 2-1 0.811 1.397 25 0.589 19
17 14 Utah Pac-12 2-1 0.803 1.533 16 0.688 32
18 17 OklahomaState B12 3-0 0.800 1.416 22 0.611 23
19 20 Arizona Pac-12 3-0 0.797 1.083 62 0.403 5
20 40 Navy Ind. 2-0 0.796 1.349 33 0.570 16
21 13 Tennessee SEC 2-1 0.781 1.369 31 0.595 21
22 27 Florida SEC 1-1 0.693 1.161 52 0.527 12
23 8 Stanford Pac-12 2-0 0.691 1.593 11 0.835 48
24 55 UTSA CUSA 1-2 0.615 1.554 14 0.879 59
25 11 UCLA Pac-12 2-0 0.603 1.384 30 0.760 37

And the rest of the Big Ten...

rk LW NCAA Team Conf Record Rating Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
32 86 Indiana B10 2-1 0.511 1.752 5 1.148 96
33 61 Northwestern B10 3-0 0.510 1.443 20 0.893 62
34 31 Nebraska B10 2-1 0.510 1.576 12 1.002 80
36 19 Michigan B10 3-0 0.494 1.392 28 0.867 57
41 72 Illinois B10 2-1 0.392 1.619 7 1.163 97
61 57 MichiganState B10 3-0 0.199 0.947 84 0.764 38
71 78 OhioState B10 3-0 0.110 1.087 61 0.976 76
85 85 Iowa B10 2-1 -0.055 0.850 93 0.901 64
86 110 Minnesota B10 3-0 -0.075 0.949 83 1.023 87
112 120 Purdue B10 1-2 -0.404 0.619 117 0.978 77

A primer on what goes into these rankings can be found here. Some thoughts...

I have no idea what to think of you, Michigan. You started off the season beating Central Michigan 59-9. I mean, Central Michigan is a bad team, but that's what good teams are supposed to do to bad teams. We're off to a good start.

Next, you beat Notre Dame 41-30. Maybe a bit much on defense (and whatever this was), but that's solid work beating an Irish team that averaged 15.0 yds/att passing against Temple (Andrew Hendrix excepted). They did go to the BCS Championship last year, after all.

Then... Akron. AKRON. I'll say it again: AKRON. Maybe Terry Bowden is putting in work this year, but this is a team that managed to lose to Massachusetts last year. The only team that managed to lose to Massachusetts last year. There is simply no excuse for letting them get within two scores of you, much less on the one yard line with a chance to win the game.

FUN FACT: I was on my way to a wedding on Saturday, so I missed this game. We were flipping through radio channels and got to one announcing the Big Ten scores for the early slate. This being a static-y radio, I mis-heard the final score as 38-24 Michigan over Akron. My first thought was still They gave up 24 pts to Akron? That's awful.

Fortunately, what with Notre Dame also struggling with Purdue and Temple turning out to be really bad, this is all sorted out by simply assuming Notre Dame isn't very good. I can live with that.

I'm punting on Ohio State. Sorry you rank 71st here Buckeyes. You play Florida A&M this weekend. Why don't you spend it properly blowing out a patsy opponent?

A reminder that South Florida ranked #2 in the AP Poll on October 14th, 2007. That's a bit of cherry picking, as they ended that season 9-4 and out of the poll all together, but still. South Florida has taken up the 2012 Colorado mystique with gusto. You alrady know about them being blown out at home against McNeese State. Their latest "accomplishment" involves losing handily (again at home) against Florida Atlantic. You might rememeber Florida Atlantic from such times as spiking the ball to stop the clock... on 4th down. The point is, they are terrible and South Florida still managed to lose by three scores against them. Your other members of the Early 'Aughts Temple Imitation Department:

#125 - South Florida (they bear mentioning again)

#114 - Temple (how appropriate!)

#112 - Purdue

#111 - Connecticut

#103 - Kansas

And speaking of bad teams from Florida...

FIU willingly fired Mario Cristobal and hired Ron Turner. Mario Cristobal has given FIU the only bowl games it's ever known (heck he even won one!) Mario Cristobal won a Sun Belt conference title at FIU. Mario Cristobal turned down Rutgers to return to FIU. And FIU fired him. They currently rank #122 in my spreadsheets and have scored 23 pts in three games.

Mario Cristobal is currently the offensive line coach at Alabama, and if Texas was smart they would make him their new head coach this off-season (Texas is not smart and will hire Todd Graham instead, because Todd Graham comes from a family of rabbits and has relatives EVERYWHERE).

THE PICKINGS

Lines taken from 5Dimes.eu here, as of 2013-09-18. Home teams highlighted in blue.

Overcat Underdog Proj Winner Conf Line Hoegh Pick vs Spd
BYU Utah Utah 99% 7.0 -25.2 Utah
FresnoState BoiseState FresnoState 53% 3.5 1.0 BoiseState
GeorgiaTech NorthCarolina GeorgiaTech 99% 6.0 40.2 GeorgiaTech
Texas KansasState Texas 57% 5.5 2.2 KansasState
LSU Auburn Auburn 77% 17.0 -10.0 Auburn
USC UtahState UtahState 71% 6.5 -7.5 UtahState
Florida Tennessee Tennessee 58% 16.0 -2.5 Tennessee
Maryland WestVirginia WestVirginia 56% 4.5 -2.0 WestVirginia
Rutgers Arkansas Rutgers 68% 0.0 6.1 Rutgers
Stanford ArizonaState ArizonaState 99% 7.0 -24.9 ArizonaState

And the Big Ten games...

Overcat Underdog Proj Winner Conf Line Hoegh Pick vs Spd
Missouri Indiana Indiana 61% 2.0 -3.7 Indiana
Iowa WesternMichigan Iowa 72% 16.5 7.9 WesternMichigan
PennState KentState PennState 99% 21.0 36.3 PennState
Michigan Connecticut Michigan 99% 17.5 24.9 Michigan
NotreDame MichiganState NotreDame 55% 7.0 1.7 MichiganState
Wisconsin Purdue Wisconsin 99% 24.0 45.8 Wisconsin
Minnesota SanJoseState SanJoseState 72% 4.0 -8.0 SanJoseState

My Stupid Upset Pick of the week is Arizona State over Stanford. If Purdue turns out to be the right play here, I'm going to be very sad.

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