FanPost

Hoegher's Rankings: WEEK THE FINAL (and season retro-spective)

(It's awesome having a credit to our OTE community like Hoegher around here. He's been posting rankings all year, and his final rankings are great and worth a read. Here's a link to his methodology that's worth boning up on before reading this. --MNW)

So this was supposed to go out last week, but I got a concussion playing Ultimate and got a bit sidetracked. BONUS: concussion knocked all memories of the previous week out of my head, so I couldn't remember Wisconsin losing the Citrus Bowl. UN-BONUS: eventually, those memories returned :(

THE RANKINGS

rk LW NCAA Team Conf Record Rating Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
1 1 FloridaState ACC 14-0 1.386 1.898 2 0.413 2
2 2 Alabama SEC 11-2 1.118 1.472 13 0.393 1
3 3 Baylor B12 11-2 0.966 1.901 1 0.792 38
4 6 Oregon Pac-12 11-2 0.958 1.661 7 0.637 12
5 4 Auburn SEC 12-2 0.935 1.712 4 0.691 21
6 5 OhioState B10 12-2 0.867 1.708 6 0.752 30
7 7 ArizonaState Pac-12 10-4 0.843 1.709 5 0.774 34
8 9 Clemson ACC 11-2 0.830 1.559 9 0.682 19
9 8 Wisconsin B10 9-4 0.806 1.261 25 0.505 5
10 11 Missouri SEC 12-2 0.791 1.498 11 0.675 18
11 14 Washington Pac-12 9-4 0.774 1.390 17 0.615 9
12 12 Louisville Amer 12-1 0.766 1.160 40 0.472 3
13 10 OklahomaState B12 10-3 0.745 1.484 12 0.705 23
14 13 Stanford Pac-12 11-3 0.743 1.276 23 0.564 8
15 19 SouthCarolina SEC 11-2 0.723 1.380 18 0.652 14
16 21 UCLA Pac-12 10-3 0.720 1.438 14 0.695 22
17 15 MichiganState B10 13-1 0.697 1.084 50 0.474 4
18 24 Oklahoma B12 11-2 0.648 1.366 20 0.706 24
19 20 LSU SEC 10-3 0.641 1.431 15 0.760 32
20 17 Georgia SEC 8-5 0.638 1.552 10 0.855 52
21 16 TexasAM SEC 9-4 0.634 1.810 3 1.062 81
22 18 GeorgiaTech ACC 7-6 0.600 1.251 27 0.664 17
23 25 CentralFlorida Amer 12-1 0.553 1.376 19 0.800 42
24 22 BYU Ind. 8-5 0.516 1.240 29 0.728 28
25 28 Arizona Pac-12 8-5 0.514 1.224 33 0.718 25

And the Big Ten in particular...

rk LW NCAA Team Conf Record Rating Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
6 5 OhioState B10 12-2 0.867 1.708 6 0.752 30
9 8 Wisconsin B10 9-4 0.806 1.261 25 0.505 5
17 15 MichiganState B10 13-1 0.697 1.084 50 0.474 4
39 36 Iowa B10 8-5 0.333 0.945 67 0.649 13
40 32 Michigan B10 7-6 0.324 1.186 35 0.858 54
50 48 PennState B10 7-5 0.233 1.021 58 0.799 41
51 52 Nebraska B10 9-4 0.202 1.130 44 0.925 60
55 53 Indiana B10 5-7 0.145 1.569 8 1.395 113
62 62 Minnesota B10 8-5 0.070 0.836 93 0.774 33
69 69 Northwestern B10 5-7 -0.017 0.893 76 0.909 59
75 73 Illinois B10 4-8 -0.096 1.137 43 1.241 104
113 113 Purdue B10 1-11 -0.654 0.566 119 1.175 97

Some thoughts...

Bowl picking season could've gone better. As I'm sure you are all aware, my bowl predictions fared non-to-well, finishing with 325 pts, good for 55th overall in the OTE Bowl Pick 'Em group and the 54th percentile across the whole population (according to ESPN). This is a far cry from the victory I was hoping to take home (for the second straight year!). C'est la vie, as they say. Somewhat amusingly, I also made bowl picks according to my pre-season projections. I expected these to do okay, though obviously they would be hampered by not actually incorporating any 2013 results. Those pickings finished with 427 pts, which would have been good for 2nd in the OTE Bowl Pick 'Em group, and 98th percentile (according to ESPN). Missed opportunities!

Speaking of pre-season projections, here's how they compare against my final rankings:

That was a huge pain in the butt to customize by the way. You should appreciate the effort I put into this hobby. Obviously, it's not a perfect record, but I'm pretty okay with this overall. Here's a week-by-week plot correlating the rankings compared to the final set:

sorry about the size...

A reminder that I phase out pre-season projections as soon as possible and just use results from the current season to rate out teams each week. This would be why there are such dramatic changes in the first few weeks. It's actually not until fairly late in the season (Week 10 or so) that these rankings start to settle out. At that point, though movement week-to-week is fairly limited. You're not going to see the same sort of meteoric rises that Auburn and Michigan State had in the polls this year. Please stop complaining when this doesn't happen, is what I'm saying.

Other week-to-week trends. Bowl season really did a number on these, y'all. I has a sad. NOTE: Army-Navy was folded into Week 15 for any "analysis."

PLOT 1: MOV Correl, PLOT 2: Mean MOV Diff, PLOT 3: Rec vs Spd (Grn - hm/rd adj)

I tried to be relatively succinct and clear, but feel free to ask if you have any questions about what's being displayed up there. The biggest thing that I take away is that:

1) It is really hard to predict a final scoring margin.

2) Adjusting for road status helps a lot picking against Vegas.

As far as Vegas goes, I was 377-340-9 (53%) on the season for the games I picked (no FCS games). That's factoring in road status, since I was much worse without that adjustment. Man, I was doing so well before those last two weeks.

For your benefit, I've helpfully drafted a template for easy commenting.

How can you have [TEAM A] ranked [#XX] and [TEAM B] ranked [#YY]? That's clearly wrong. Your rankings are bad and you should feel bad.

227 days until the 2014 season, y'all. OH GOD IT'S SO LONG.

[LINK TO COMMENTS]

EDIT: Adding an alternative set of rankings for y'all to enjoy. These only take into account wins and losses, so you can see the comparison:

Rk NCAA Team Conf FBS Rec Adj QM
1 FloridaState ACC 13-0 0.501
2 Auburn SEC 11-2 0.486
3 Missouri SEC 11-2 0.448
4 SouthCarolina SEC 10-2 0.422
5 MichiganState B10 12-1 0.418
6 Stanford Pac-12 11-3 0.384
7 Oklahoma B12 11-2 0.382
8 Baylor B12 10-2 0.375
9 Alabama SEC 10-2 0.374
10 CentralFlorida Amer 12-1 0.370
11 Clemson ACC 9-2 0.360
12 OhioState B10 11-2 0.356
13 Oregon Pac-12 10-2 0.342
14 ArizonaState Pac-12 9-4 0.324
15 OklahomaState B12 9-3 0.313
16 Louisville Amer 11-1 0.312
17 UCLA Pac-12 10-3 0.300
18 LSU SEC 9-3 0.287
19 TexasAM SEC 8-4 0.273
20 USC Pac-12 10-4 0.251
21 NotreDame Ind. 9-4 0.242
22 FresnoState MWC 10-2 0.236
23 Georgia SEC 7-5 0.219
24 Washington Pac-12 8-4 0.213
25 Duke ACC 9-4 0.205
26 NorthernIllinois MAC 11-2 0.199
27 Miami ACC 8-4 0.196
28 Mississippi SEC 7-5 0.194
29 Wisconsin B10 8-4 0.173
30 KansasState B12 8-4 0.173
31 VirginiaTech ACC 7-5 0.170
32 Vanderbilt SEC 8-4 0.163
33 Nebraska B10 8-4 0.155
34 Texas B12 8-5 0.152
35 Iowa B10 7-5 0.135
36 EastCarolina CUSA 9-3 0.131
37 Arizona Pac-12 7-5 0.130
38 Rice CUSA 10-4 0.127
39 BYU Ind. 7-5 0.125
40 MississippiState SEC 6-6 0.124
41 Minnesota B10 7-5 0.119
42 Navy Ind. 8-4 0.119
43 OregonState Pac-12 7-5 0.114
44 TexasTech B12 7-5 0.106
45 Michigan B10 7-6 0.106
46 NorthTexas CUSA 9-4 0.104
47 BallState MAC 9-3 0.095
48 Houston Amer 7-5 0.090
49 SanDiegoState MWC 8-4 0.090
50 BowlingGreen MAC 9-4 0.086
51 PennState B10 7-5 0.083
52 Marshall CUSA 9-4 0.082
53 LouisianaLafayette Sun 8-4 0.079
54 UtahState MWC 8-5 0.071
55 Pittsburgh ACC 6-6 0.071
56 ArkansasState Sun 7-5 0.068
57 GeorgiaTech ACC 5-6 0.056
58 NorthCarolina ACC 6-6 0.043
59 WesternKentucky Sun 7-4 0.041
60 Toledo MAC 6-5 0.035
61 Syracuse ACC 6-6 0.029
62 UTSA CUSA 7-5 0.025
63 BoiseState MWC 7-5 0.021
64 Tennessee SEC 4-7 0.014
65 Cincinnati Amer 8-4 0.007
66 BostonCollege ACC 6-6 0.004
67 SouthAlabama Sun 6-5 -0.001
68 WashingtonState Pac-12 5-7 -0.002
69 Utah Pac-12 4-7 -0.003
70 Buffalo MAC 7-5 -0.009
71 MiddleTennessee CUSA 7-5 -0.017
72 Florida SEC 4-7 -0.018
73 Tulane CUSA 6-6 -0.031
74 Indiana B10 4-7 -0.032
75 LouisianaMonroe Sun 5-6 -0.033
76 SanJoseState MWC 5-6 -0.038
77 Maryland ACC 6-6 -0.045
78 UNLV MWC 6-6 -0.053
79 FloridaAtlantic CUSA 6-6 -0.061
80 Troy Sun 5-6 -0.068
81 Ohio MAC 6-6 -0.072
82 Northwestern B10 4-7 -0.098
83 Rutgers Amer 5-7 -0.103
84 ColoradoState MWC 7-6 -0.109
85 Akron MAC 4-7 -0.130
86 TexasState Sun 5-6 -0.149
87 TCU B12 3-8 -0.162
88 CentralMichigan MAC 5-6 -0.165
89 WakeForest ACC 3-8 -0.169
90 IowaState B12 3-8 -0.169
91 SMU Amer 4-7 -0.181
92 Nevada MWC 3-8 -0.195
93 Illinois B10 3-8 -0.196
94 Arkansas SEC 2-9 -0.201
95 Colorado Pac-12 2-8 -0.206
96 WestVirginia B12 3-8 -0.206
97 Wyoming MWC 4-7 -0.235
98 KentState MAC 3-8 -0.238
99 Tulsa CUSA 3-9 -0.245
100 Connecticut Amer 3-8 -0.256
101 SouthFlorida Amer 2-9 -0.263
102 Kansas B12 2-9 -0.265
103 Virginia ACC 1-10 -0.275
104 NorthCarolinaState ACC 2-9 -0.280
105 Kentucky SEC 1-10 -0.284
106 Memphis Amer 2-9 -0.301
107 NewMexico MWC 3-9 -0.319
108 Temple Amer 2-9 -0.356
109 Purdue B10 0-11 -0.362
110 California Pac-12 0-11 -0.369
111 Idaho Ind. 1-10 -0.389
112 LouisianaTech CUSA 3-8 -0.402
113 UAB CUSA 1-10 -0.410
114 Hawaii MWC 1-11 -0.416
115 UTEP CUSA 2-10 -0.425
116 NewMexicoState Ind. 1-10 -0.428
117 Massachusetts MAC 1-10 -0.434
118 WesternMichigan MAC 1-10 -0.437
119 Army Ind. 2-9 -0.440
120 EasternMichigan MAC 1-10 -0.443
121 FIU CUSA 1-10 -0.458
122 AirForce MWC 1-10 -0.464
123 GeorgiaState Sun 0-9 -0.484
124 SouthernMississippi CUSA 1-11 -0.491
125 MiamiOH MAC 0-12 -0.599
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