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Hoegher's 2014 Previews: RUTGERS RED SPARTYS

I have work to catch up on and I don't care about Rutgers.

NOTE: All of the numbers and figures that follow are based on my ratings system, which is derived from scoring data going back to 1930. For more explanation, see my primer here: [LINK]

Data gathered from the wonderful resources provided by Sports-Reference and James Howell.

PAST PERFORMANCES OF VARYING QUALITY

Rutgers - Historical Offense & Defense

Rutgers - Historical Win% & "Luck"

I double checked. Those undefeated seasons are not a mistake on my part. Rutgers finished 15th (1961) and 17th (1976) in the AP Poll those years, in part because of atrocious schedules.

"BEST" and "WORST" (since 1930, 9953 total teams)

Rk Year Team Adj Rk Res Rk Conf Record Adj Off Yr Rk Adj Def Yr Rk Luck Yr Rk SOS Yr Rk N.C.
690 2006 Rutgers 701 798 BE 11-2 1.27 26 0.49 5 4% 35 0.14 46
1116 1976 Rutgers 1345 789 Ind. 11-0-0 1.18 31 0.52 4 7% 33 -0.28 126
1312 1975 Rutgers 1087 1996 Ind. 9-2-0 1.27 30 0.50 10 -14% 126 -0.32 134
1646 1946 Rutgers 1436 2299 Ind. 7-2-0 1.29 36 0.37 7 -5% 86 -0.28 97
1934 1978 Rutgers 2104 1768 Ind. 9-3-0 1.16 47 0.65 20 -3% 91 -0.08 92

2006 Rutgers (Coach - Greg Schiano)

Conf Record Luck (wins) rk Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Adj Eff rk Adj Marg rk
BE 11-2 +0.6 35 1.27 26 0.49 5 0.72 9 0.77 12
Total Teams Rating rk Opp-O rk Opp-D rk SOS rk Variance rk
120 0.82 11 1.06 34 0.91 54 0.14 46 0.24 15
H/V Opponent Record Opp Rk Off Rk Def Rk PF PA OT W/L W-Lk
V NorthCarolina 3-9 100 80 108 21 16 W 99%
H Illinois 2-10 87 74 93 33 0 W 99%
H Ohio 9-5 76 94 46 24 7 W 98%
H FCS 7-71 116 115 116 56 7 W 99%
V SouthFlorida 9-4 50 61 38 22 20 W 80%
~ BYE ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
V Navy 9-4 57 46 69 34 0 W 86%
V Pittsburgh 6-6 27 17 42 20 10 W 61%
H Connecticut 4-8 60 68 60 24 13 W 96%
~ BYE ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
H Louisville 12-1 2 1 13 28 25 W 37%
V Cincinnati 8-5 31 45 23 11 30 L 68%
H Syracuse 4-8 72 91 48 38 7 W 98%
V WestVirginia 11-2 7 2 36 23 23.5 Y L 33%
~ BYE ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
~ BYE ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
N KansasState 7-6 54 62 51 37 10 W 90%

I don't care about Rutgers, but this is why I'm softer on Schiano than most people.

Rk Year Team Adj Rk Res Rk Conf Record Adj Off Yr Rk Adj Def Yr Rk Luck Yr Rk SOS Yr Rk N.C.
9387 1955 Rutgers 9557 8690 Ind. 3-5-0 0.62 92 1.81 108 15% 4 -0.40 106
9489 2002 Rutgers 9460 9469 BE 1-11 0.54 116 1.28 100 -11% 104 0.09 58
9603 1956 Rutgers 9659 9392 Ind. 3-7-0 0.47 111 1.66 107 8% 20 -0.45 109
9702 2001 Rutgers 9779 9388 BE 2-9 0.40 118 1.31 102 5% 36 0.07 60
9894 1997 Rutgers 9845 9926 BE 0-11 0.61 102 1.77 111 -6% 81 -0.11 77

1997 Rutgers (Coach - Terry Shea)

Conf Record Luck (wins) rk Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Adj Eff rk Adj Marg rk
BE 0-11 -0.6 81 0.61 102 1.77 111 0.26 110 -1.15 111
Total Teams Rating rk Opp-O rk Opp-D rk SOS rk Variance rk
113 -1.06 111 0.93 78 1.04 80 -0.11 77 0.36 62
H/V Opponent Record Opp Rk Off Rk Def Rk PF PA OT W/L W-Lk
~ BYE ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
H VirginiaTech 7-5 47 60 31 19 59 L 1%
V Texas 4-7 80 58 96 14 48 L 3%
V Navy 7-4 46 39 53 7 36 L 1%
H BostonCollege 4-7 84 87 84 21 35 L 14%
~ BYE ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
V WestVirginia 7-5 49 40 57 0 48 L 1%
H Syracuse 9-4 17 27 16 3 50 L 1%
V Army 4-7 101 101 92 35 37 L 14%
H Pittsburgh 6-6 78 59 93 41 41.5 Y L 9%
V Temple 3-8 99 94 98 7 49 L 13%
H WakeForest 5-6 66 61 66 14 28 L 4%
V Miami 5-6 65 67 61 23 51 L 1%

I don't care about Rutgers.

FUTURE PROJECTIONS OF SUSPECT VALIDITY

Rutgers Proj Rk - 56 (out of 129)

Off Ret St - 9 (1 QB)

Def Ret St - 7

Conf Prj Rec Conf Adj Off rk Adj Def rk SOS rk C-SOS rk
B10 5-7 2-6 1.00 69 0.84 39 0.20 29 0.42 16
Gm Wk Date H/V Opponent Prj Rk Prj Off Prj Def W-Lk
1 1 Aug-28 V WashingtonState 70 56 82 54%
2 2 Sep-06 H Howard 126 ~ ~ 99%
3 3 Sep-13 H PennState 32 57 11 36%
4 4 Sep-20 V Navy 48 58 30 32%
5 5 Sep-27 H Tulane 107 109 92 91%
6 6 Oct-04 H Michigan 23 21 32 32%
7 8 Oct-18 V OhioState 5 8 16 5%
8 9 Oct-25 V Nebraska 39 36 38 26%
9 10 Nov-01 H Wisconsin 12 16 20 21%
10 12 Nov-15 H Indiana 58 11 108 62%
11 13 Nov-22 V MichiganState 20 45 7 15%
12 14 Nov-29 V Maryland 59 73 49 45%


Rutgers 2014 Profile (old projections)

Hoegher's Biased Perspective

I don't care about Rutgers.

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