GO CHILE. Hopefully, this doesn't look dumb in a hour.
NOTE: All of the numbers and figures that follow are based on my ratings system, which is derived from scoring data going back to 1930. For more explanation, see my primer here: [LINK]
Data gathered from the wonderful resources provided by Sports-Reference, James Howell, cfbstats.com, and Phil Steele.
PAST PERFORMANCES OF VARYING QUALITY
Penn State - Historical Overall Ratings
PennState - Historical Offense & Defense
PennState - Historical Win% & "Luck"
One of the more readable coaching histories, for obvious reasons. Way to screw that one up B.O.B.
"BEST" and "WORST" (since 1930, 9953 total teams)
Rk | Year | Team | Adj Rk | Res Rk | Conf | Record | Adj Off | Yr Rk | Adj Def | Yr Rk | Luck | Yr Rk | SOS | Yr Rk | N.C. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
43 | 1981 | PennState | 43 | 128 | Ind. | 10-2 | 2.10 | 1 | 0.52 | 6 | -2% | 82 | 0.60 | 1 | |
48 | 1982 | PennState | 84 | 21 | Ind. | 11-1 | 2.01 | 2 | 0.60 | 13 | 8% | 23 | 0.52 | 1 | Y |
105 | 1994 | PennState | 168 | 61 | B10 | 12-0 | 2.16 | 1 | 0.79 | 29 | 8% | 18 | 0.27 | 15 | |
150 | 1977 | PennState | 236 | 65 | Ind. | 11-1 | 1.88 | 2 | 0.66 | 16 | 7% | 28 | 0.34 | 5 | |
161 | 1986 | PennState | 291 | 31 | Ind. | 12-0 | 1.44 | 10 | 0.43 | 2 | 15% | 4 | 0.28 | 16 | Y |
1981 Penn State (Coach - Joe Paterno)
Conf | Record | Luck (wins) | rk | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Adj Eff | rk | Adj Marg | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ind. | 10-2 | -0.3 | 82 | 2.10 | 1 | 0.52 | 6 | 0.80 | 2 | 1.58 | 1 |
Total Teams | Rating | rk | Opp-O | rk | Opp-D | rk | SOS | rk | Variance | rk | |
138 | 1.39 | 1 | 1.29 | 1 | 0.70 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 0.63 | 120 |
Gm | Wk | Date | H/V | Opponent | FCS | Record | Opp Rk | Off Rk | Def Rk | PF | PA | OT | W/L | W-Lk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | Sep-12 | H | Cincinnati | ~ | 6-5 | 61 | 98 | 34 | 52 | 0 | ~ | W | 99% |
2 | 4 | Sep-26 | V | Nebraska | ~ | 9-3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 30 | 24 | ~ | W | 48% |
3 | 5 | Oct-03 | H | Temple | ~ | 5-5 | 33 | 51 | 33 | 30 | 0 | ~ | W | 98% |
4 | 6 | Oct-10 | H | BostonCollege | ~ | 5-6 | 59 | 25 | 100 | 38 | 7 | ~ | W | 99% |
5 | 7 | Oct-17 | V | Syracuse | ~ | 4-6-1 | 43 | 19 | 87 | 41 | 16 | ~ | W | 95% |
6 | 8 | Oct-24 | H | WestVirginia | ~ | 9-3 | 14 | 31 | 7 | 30 | 7 | ~ | W | 91% |
7 | 9 | Oct-31 | V | Miami | ~ | 9-2 | 11 | 20 | 8 | 14 | 17 | ~ | L | 77% |
8 | 10 | Nov-07 | V | NorthCarolinaState | ~ | 4-7 | 79 | 91 | 62 | 22 | 15 | ~ | W | 99% |
9 | 11 | Nov-14 | H | Alabama | ~ | 9-2-1 | 15 | 12 | 26 | 16 | 31 | ~ | L | 91% |
10 | 12 | Nov-21 | H | NotreDame | ~ | 5-6 | 19 | 41 | 11 | 24 | 21 | ~ | W | 94% |
11 | 13 | Nov-28 | V | Pittsburgh | ~ | 11-1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 48 | 14 | ~ | W | 48% |
12 | 20 | Jan-01 | N | USC | ~ | 9-3 | 16 | 32 | 12 | 26 | 10 | ~ | W | 89% |
One of the interesting things (to me, at least) I've found while going through these posts is how often a schools "best" years occur a year or two removed from their national title years. Maybe you attribute this to flaws in my system, you're more than welcome to do so. But a lot of it is just because winning a title takes a fair bit of luck. 2002 Ohio State is remembered fondly despite numerous late game escapes. How differently would 2006 Ohio State be remembered if Lloyd Carr campaigned a little harder?
Obviously, I bring this up because 1981 Penn State gets the nod here over the following season's national title squad (if it makes you feel better Huskers, I have y'all ranked 1st for that year). If you're wondering how a 10-2 team can possibly be the best in anything, it basically comes down to one thing: schedule. Penn State played six teams that won at least 9 games that year, going 4-2 against that lineup. By the Hoegher Rankings, they played seven teams that ranked in the Top 20 (six if you want to exclude Notre Dame, which I'm fine with), going 2-0 against the #2 and #3 teams (Nebraska and Pittsburgh, respectively).
They also didn't play any terrible teams, the worst probably being a 4-7 NCSU team (#79 in my rankings). Considering that there were 138 major college football teams that year, that's no small feat. Really, were it not for a two week stretch in mid-November, they'd probably have that title sitting in... whatever their trophy room is. Actually, Clemson claims the titles for 1981. Fvck Clemson, give to Penn State anyway.
Rk | Year | Team | Adj Rk | Res Rk | Conf | Record | Adj Off | Yr Rk | Adj Def | Yr Rk | Luck | Yr Rk | SOS | Yr Rk | N.C. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5845 | 2003 | PennState | 4759 | 7635 | B10 | 3-9 | 0.84 | 80 | 0.76 | 28 | -17% | 114 | 0.22 | 24 | |
5919 | 1930 | PennState | 5549 | 6518 | Ind. | 3-4-2 | 0.95 | 67 | 0.97 | 77 | -4% | 68 | 0.06 | 55 | |
7242 | 1932 | PennState | 6395 | 8553 | Ind. | 2-5 | 1.00 | 76 | 1.25 | 99 | -23% | 119 | -0.14 | 86 | |
7282 | 1933 | PennState | 7297 | 7170 | Ind. | 3-3-1 | 0.89 | 88 | 1.43 | 105 | -3% | 88 | -0.44 | 112 | |
8148 | 1931 | PennState | 7525 | 9067 | Ind. | 2-8 | 0.66 | 88 | 1.23 | 94 | -17% | 109 | 0.06 | 59 |
1931 Penn State (Coach - Bob Higgins)
Conf | Record | Luck (wins) | rk | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Adj Eff | rk | Adj Marg | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ind. | 2-8 | -1.7 | 109 | 0.66 | 88 | 1.23 | 94 | 0.35 | 89 | -0.57 | 91 |
Total Teams | Rating | rk | Opp-O | rk | Opp-D | rk | SOS | rk | Variance | rk | |
111 | -0.59 | 90 | 1.25 | 33 | 1.21 | 90 | 0.06 | 59 | 0.77 | 31 |
Gm | Wk | Date | H/V | Opponent | FCS | Record | Opp Rk | Off Rk | Def Rk | PF | PA | OT | W/L | W-Lk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 3 | Sep-26 | H | Waynesburg | Y | ~ | ~97 | ~ | ~ | 0 | 7 | ~ | L | 75% |
2 | 4 | Oct-03 | H | LebanonValley | Y | ~ | ~109 | ~ | ~ | 19 | 6 | ~ | W | 94% |
3 | 5 | Oct-10 | V | Temple | ~ | 8-1-1 | 42 | 48 | 27 | 0 | 12 | ~ | L | 3% |
4 | 6 | Oct-17 | H | Dickinson | Y | ~ | ~97 | ~ | ~ | 6 | 10 | ~ | L | 75% |
5 | 7 | Oct-24 | V | Syracuse | ~ | 7-1-1 | 32 | 22 | 43 | 0 | 7 | ~ | L | 1% |
6 | 8 | Oct-31 | H | Pittsburgh | ~ | 8-1 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 6 | 41 | ~ | L | 1% |
7 | 9 | Nov-08 | H | Colgate | ~ | 8-1 | 14 | 17 | 14 | 7 | 32 | ~ | L | 1% |
8 | 10 | Nov-14 | V | Lafayette | Y | ~ | ~39 | ~ | ~ | 0 | 33 | ~ | L | 1% |
9 | 11 | Nov-21 | V | WestVirginia | ~ | 4-6 | 78 | 49 | 96 | 0 | 19 | ~ | L | 25% |
10 | 12 | Nov-28 | N | Lehigh | Y | ~ | ~110 | ~ | ~ | 31 | 0 | ~ | W | 95% |
As much as I can feel bad for a guy that died 40+ years ago, I feel bad for calling out Bob Higgins here. He was in the process of building Penn State up to what it would become, and eventually led them to an undefeated season in 1947 (9-0-1). On the other hand, this team got shut-out by something called "Waynesburg," so maybe it's well-deserved.
Normally, a coach popping up on both the "best" and "worst" lists would be interesting to note, but since it's Paterno... meh.
FUTURE PROJECTIONS OF SUSPECT VALIDITY
Penn State Proj Rk - 31 (out of 129)
Off Ret St - 7 (1 QB)
Def Ret St - 8
Conf | Prj Rec | Conf | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | SOS | rk | C-SOS | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B10 | 8-4 | 5-3 | 1.06 | 57 | 0.67 | 11 | 0.09 | 52 | 0.30 | 44 |
Gm | Wk | Date | H/V | Opponent | Prj Rk | Prj Off | Prj Def | W-Lk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 | Aug-30 | N | CentralFlorida | 23 | 39 | 18 | 46% |
2 | 2 | Sep-06 | H | Akron | 118 | 114 | 114 | 99% |
3 | 3 | Sep-13 | V | Rutgers | 56 | 69 | 39 | 65% |
4 | 4 | Sep-20 | H | Massachusetts | 129 | 129 | 124 | 99% |
5 | 5 | Sep-27 | H | Northwestern | 51 | 55 | 51 | 78% |
6 | 7 | Oct-11 | V | Michigan | 24 | 21 | 32 | 36% |
7 | 9 | Oct-25 | H | OhioState | 5 | 8 | 16 | 28% |
8 | 10 | Nov-01 | H | Maryland | 59 | 73 | 49 | 84% |
9 | 11 | Nov-08 | V | Indiana | 58 | 11 | 109 | 68% |
10 | 12 | Nov-15 | H | Temple | 83 | 79 | 87 | 94% |
11 | 13 | Nov-22 | V | Illinois | 68 | 75 | 60 | 76% |
12 | 14 | Nov-29 | H | MichiganState | 20 | 45 | 7 | 51% |
Penn State 2014 Profile (old projections)
Hoegher's Biased Perspective
I have no idea what to think about Penn State. They're a historical blue blood, have enjoyed recent success (especially defensively), and are recruiting well. On the other hand, they've dealt with sanctions and coaching turnover that makes recent history even more of a variable predictor. This is a team that can lose by multiple scores to a 5-7 Indiana team in the same season that they (sigh) beat a 9-4 Wisconsin team on the road.
However, as a general believer in power of historical success for present-day success and an avid hater of Michigan State, I'll say 10-2. Lazers belong in the Keystone State.
TANGENT QUESTION: why Ireland? Does Central Florida have a heretofore unknown redhead population? They'd get sunburned!
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