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Hoegher's 2014 Previews: IOWA PIG EARS

Not that I'm beholden to any sort of contract, but apologies on the delays for these posts. The last few weeks have been fairly busy in terms of work and responsibilities. I'll try to add some discussion points later today, but feel free to peruse the many plots and tables and tell me why I'm wrong :)

NOTE: All of the numbers and figures that follow are based on my ratings system, which is derived from scoring data going back to 1930. For more explanation, see my primer here: [LINK]

Data gathered from the wonderful resources provided by Sports-Reference, James Howell, cfbstats.com, and Phil Steele.

PAST PERFORMANCES OF VARYING QUALITY

Iowa - Historical Overall Ratings

Iowa - Historical Offense & Defense

Iowa - Historical Win% & "Luck"

[brief statement on nothing in particular]

"BEST" and "WORST" (since 1930, 9953 total teams)

Rk Year Team Adj Rk Res Rk Conf Record Adj Off Yr Rk Adj Def Yr Rk Luck Yr Rk SOS Yr Rk N.C.
145 1960 Iowa 186 110 B10 8-1 2.22 2 0.55 21 7% 30 0.68 3
298 1958 Iowa 437 167 B10 8-1-1 2.19 1 0.75 37 7% 26 0.58 2 Y
349 1985 Iowa 313 549 B10 10-2 1.73 1 0.64 20 -1% 65 0.20 26
705 1933 Iowa 346 2099 West 5-3 2.96 2 0.68 57 -7% 97 0.81 5
784 2002 Iowa 960 598 B10 11-2 1.39 10 0.63 16 4% 31 0.13 44

1960 Iowa (Coach - Forest Evashevski)

Conf Record Luck (wins) rk Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Adj Eff rk Adj Marg rk
B10 8-1 +0.6 30 2.22 2 0.55 21 0.80 2 1.66 2
Total Teams Rating rk Opp-O rk Opp-D rk SOS rk Variance rk
114 1.43 2 1.42 1 0.73 8 0.68 3 0.96 100
Gm Wk Date H/V Opponent FCS Record Opp Rk Off Rk Def Rk PF PA OT W/L W-Lk
1 3 Sep-24 H OregonState ~ 6-3-1 45 30 62 22 12 ~ W 96%
2 4 Oct-01 V Northwestern ~ 5-4 41 70 15 42 0 ~ W 87%
3 5 Oct-08 V MichiganState ~ 6-2-1 16 11 32 27 15 ~ W 68%
4 6 Oct-15 H Wisconsin ~ 4-5 54 38 73 28 21 ~ W 98%
5 7 Oct-22 H Purdue ~ 4-4-1 22 3 60 21 14 ~ W 84%
6 8 Oct-29 H Kansas ~ 7-2-1 5 8 16 21 7 ~ W 73%
7 9 Nov-05 V Minnesota ~ 8-2 11 18 14 10 27 ~ L 64%
8 10 Nov-12 H OhioState ~ 7-2 7 12 12 35 12 ~ W 75%
9 11 Nov-19 V NotreDame ~ 2-8 66 65 58 28 0 ~ W 96%

[discussion points as they strike your fancy]

Rk Year Team Adj Rk Res Rk Conf Record Adj Off Yr Rk Adj Def Yr Rk Luck Yr Rk SOS Yr Rk N.C.
8834 1973 Iowa 8497 9281 B10 0-11 0.87 84 1.53 115 -9% 106 0.50 3
9004 1978 Iowa 9138 8534 B10 2-9 0.50 136 1.15 93 2% 56 0.15 39
9227 1971 Iowa 9028 9446 B10 1-10 0.66 115 1.47 118 0% 63 0.25 26
9268 1938 Iowa 9298 9118 West 1-6-1 0.45 121 1.69 117 8% 23 0.31 50
9342 1966 Iowa 9489 8792 B10 2-8 0.49 116 1.45 109 1% 47 0.03 56

1966 Iowa (Coach - Ray Nagel)

Conf Record Luck (wins) rk Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Adj Eff rk Adj Marg rk
B10 2-8 +0.1 47 0.49 116 1.45 109 0.25 116 -0.96 115
Total Teams Rating rk Opp-O rk Opp-D rk SOS rk Variance rk
120 -0.98 115 1.06 48 1.01 65 0.03 56 0.35 15
Gm Wk Date H/V Opponent FCS Record Opp Rk Off Rk Def Rk PF PA OT W/L W-Lk
1 2 Sep-17 H Arizona ~ 3-7 105 58 116 31 20 ~ W 42%
2 3 Sep-24 H OregonState ~ 7-3 58 66 54 3 17 ~ L 12%
3 4 Oct-01 H Wisconsin ~ 3-6-1 106 115 85 0 7 ~ L 43%
4 5 Oct-08 V Purdue ~ 9-2 4 4 20 0 35 ~ L 1%
5 6 Oct-15 V Minnesota ~ 4-5-1 89 97 77 0 17 ~ L 13%
6 7 Oct-22 H Northwestern ~ 3-6-1 79 62 91 15 24 ~ L 21%
7 8 Oct-29 H Indiana ~ 1-8-1 93 78 93 20 19 ~ W 29%
8 9 Nov-05 V MichiganState ~ 9-0-1 5 5 17 7 56 ~ L 1%
9 10 Nov-12 H OhioState ~ 4-5 82 95 69 10 14 ~ L 23%
10 11 Nov-18 V Miami ~ 8-2-1 21 39 11 0 44 ~ L 1%

[discussion points as they strike your fancy]

FUTURE PROJECTIONS OF SUSPECT VALIDITY

Iowa Proj Rk - 41 (out of 129)

Off Ret St - 8 (1 QB)

Def Ret St - 5

Conf Prj Rec Conf Adj Off rk Adj Def rk SOS rk C-SOS rk
B10 9-3 5-3 1.05 61 0.74 22 0.02 67 0.14 63
Gm Wk Date H/V Opponent Prj Rk Prj Off Prj Def W-Lk
1 1 Aug-30 H NorthernIowa 126 ~ ~ 99%
2 2 Sep-06 H BallState 91 70 106 94%
3 3 Sep-13 H IowaState 67 64 70 83%
4 4 Sep-20 V Pittsburgh 46 50 37 45%
5 5 Sep-27 V Purdue 101 101 97 89%
6 7 Oct-11 H Indiana 58 11 109 76%
7 8 Oct-18 V Maryland 59 73 49 62%
8 10 Nov-01 H Northwestern 51 55 51 72%
9 11 Nov-08 V Minnesota 73 99 47 73%
10 12 Nov-15 V Illinois 68 75 60 69%
11 13 Nov-22 H Wisconsin 12 16 20 32%
12 14 Nov-29 H Nebraska 39 36 38 59%
13 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
14 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Iowa 2014 Profile (old projections)

Hoegher's Biased Perspective

CONTENT POSSIBLE PENDING...

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PLEASE STAND BY, YOUR COMMENTS ARE IMPORTANT TO US.

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