FanPost

Hoegher's 2014 Previews: NEBRASKA PE[LLLL]INIS

Eric Francis

[ed note: Hoegher has these great posts on all of teams in the fanshots. We should be better at front-paging them... so here you go. -jc]

Getting this out early, because I've learned enough to know my weekdays will fill up fast.

NOTE: All of the numbers and figures that follow are based on my ratings system, which is derived from scoring data going back to 1930. For more explanation, see my primer here: [LINK]

Data gathered from the wonderful resources provided by Sports-Reference, James Howell, cfbstats.com, and Phil Steele.

PAST PERFORMANCES OF VARYING QUALITY

Nebraska - Historical Overall Ratings

Nebraska - Historical Offense & Defense

Nebraska - Historical Win% & "Luck"

[brief statement on nothing in particular]

"BEST" and "WORST" (since 1930, 9953 total teams)

Rk Year Team Adj Rk Res Rk Conf Record Adj Off Yr Rk Adj Def Yr Rk Luck Yr Rk SOS Yr Rk N.C.
14 1971 Nebraska 28 19 Big8 13-0 2.14 2 0.33 1 8% 25 0.29 22 Y
16 1995 Nebraska 23 47 Big8 12-0 2.20 1 0.49 2 5% 29 0.18 25 Y
22 1980 Nebraska 8 579 Big8 10-2 2.19 1 0.37 3 -9% 117 0.37 13
62 1972 Nebraska 17 658 Big8 9-2-1 2.12 2 0.31 3 -15% 121 0.33 19
70 1982 Nebraska 48 248 Big8 12-1 2.02 1 0.53 7 1% 45 0.21 34

1971 Nebraska (Coach - Bob Devaney)

Conf Record Luck (wins) rk Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Adj Eff rk Adj Marg rk
Big8 13-0 +1.0 25 2.14 2 0.33 1 0.87 1 1.81 1
Total Teams Rating rk Opp-O rk Opp-D rk SOS rk Variance rk
129 1.64 1 1.22 14 0.88 23 0.29 22 0.39 25
Gm Wk Date H/V Opponent FCS Record Opp Rk Off Rk Def Rk PF PA OT W/L W-Lk
1 1 Sep-11 H Oregon ~ 5-6 47 33 77 34 7 ~ W 99%
2 2 Sep-18 H Minnesota ~ 4-7 67 53 82 35 7 ~ W 99%
3 3 Sep-25 H TexasAM ~ 5-6 92 106 70 34 7 ~ W 99%
4 4 Oct-02 H UtahState ~ 8-3 36 51 32 42 6 ~ W 99%
5 5 Oct-09 V Missouri ~ 1-10 117 124 69 36 0 ~ W 99%
6 6 Oct-16 H Kansas ~ 4-7 69 82 50 55 0 ~ W 99%
7 7 Oct-23 V OklahomaState ~ 4-6-1 80 70 78 41 13 ~ W 99%
8 8 Oct-30 H Colorado ~ 10-2 10 5 25 31 7 ~ W 92%
9 9 Nov-06 H IowaState ~ 8-4 27 20 45 37 0 ~ W 99%
10 10 Nov-13 V KansasState ~ 5-6 46 36 74 44 17 ~ W 99%
11 12 Nov-25 V Oklahoma ~ 11-1 3 1 26 35 31 ~ W 55%
12 13 Dec-04 V Hawaii ~ 7-4 57 65 64 45 3 ~ W 99%
13 20 Jan-01 N Alabama ~ 11-1 2 3 3 38 6 ~ W 63%

Trying to split hairs between 1995 Nebraska and 1971 Nebraska is going to be pretty much pointless. They are both great teams that played a largely weak schedule, but came out on top against their best opponents when given the chance. 1995 Nebraska had a better offense, 1971 Nebraska had a better defense. Both of them also beat a middling Big Ten team along the way, so this retrospective is even semi-relevant for our beloved conference of mediocrity.

What I'd like to focus on instead is that stunning period of success that Nebraska had between 1969 and 1997. During that period, Nebraska never lost more than three games (their worst record was 9-3-1 in 1976) and won 10+ games 17 times. That is a period of success and consistency that is unmatched by any other team. Alabama can't match that, Michigan can't match that, USC can't match that, no one can match that (at least, not for three continuous decades).

And yet, between 1972 and 1993, Nebraska has a total of zero national titles. Nebraska was my top-rated team every year from 1980-1984 except one (they ranked 2nd in 1981 behind Penn State, who they played and lost), and still managed to come out with zero national titles in that span. Losing games to the like of Syracuse (6-5 in 1984) will do that to you.

Rk Year Team Adj Rk Res Rk Conf Record Adj Off Yr Rk Adj Def Yr Rk Luck Yr Rk SOS Yr Rk N.C.
8275 1944 Nebraska 8166 8377 Big6 2-6 0.66 72 1.43 79 4% 35 0.26 32
8326 1942 Nebraska 8380 8096 Big6 3-7 0.38 116 1.08 86 4% 40 -0.13 82
8729 1951 Nebraska 8445 9090 Big7 1-8-1 0.58 103 1.21 97 0% 57 0.17 52
8942 1957 Nebraska 8939 8875 Big7 1-9 0.49 109 1.25 91 -1% 63 0.28 35
9278 1943 Nebraska 9303 9139 Big6 2-6 0.64 57 2.13 73 11% 5 -0.29 58

1943 Nebraska (Coach - Adolph Lewandowski)

Conf Record Luck (wins) rk Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Adj Eff rk Adj Marg rk
Big6 2-6 +0.9 5 0.64 57 2.13 73 0.23 69 -1.49 72
Total Teams Rating rk Opp-O rk Opp-D rk SOS rk Variance rk
77 -1.28 71 0.83 66 1.15 57 -0.29 58 0.85 50
Gm Wk Date H/V Opponent FCS Record Opp Rk Off Rk Def Rk PF PA OT W/L W-Lk
1 4 Oct-02 V Minnesota ~ 5-4 41 32 53 0 54 ~ L 1%
2 5 Oct-09 H Indiana ~ 4-4-2 30 38 24 13 54 ~ L 1%
3 6 Oct-16 V IowaState ~ 4-4 40 45 40 6 27 ~ L 1%
4 7 Oct-23 H Kansas ~ 4-5-1 53 67 38 7 6 ~ W 13%
5 8 Oct-30 V Missouri ~ 3-5 52 39 58 20 54 ~ L 4%
6 9 Nov-06 V KansasState ~ 1-7 77 74 77 13 7 ~ W 72%
7 11 Nov-20 H Iowa ~ 1-6-1 56 62 50 13 33 ~ L 18%
8 12 Nov-27 H Oklahoma ~ 7-2 34 30 35 7 26 ~ L 1%

In 1943, Nebraska played two teams with a winning record (5-4 Minnesota and 7-2 Oklahoma). They got outscored 80-7 by those teams. They lost by 20 pts (at home!) to a 1-6-1 Iowa team. They lost by 40 pts to Indiana (granted this was the era where Indiana was decent, but this is still Indiana). Their coach was named Adolph, which is made all the worst by being 1943.

And despite that standard of suck-itude set, they still beat Kansas because Kansas.

FUTURE PROJECTIONS OF SUSPECT VALIDITY

Nebraska Proj Rk - 39 (out of 129)

Off Ret St - 5 (1 QB)

Def Ret St - 6

Conf Prj Rec Conf Adj Off rk Adj Def rk SOS rk C-SOS rk
B10 8-4 5-3 1.18 36 0.84 38 0.06 59 0.19 60
Gm Wk Date H/V Opponent Prj Rk Prj Off Prj Def W-Lk
1 1 Aug-30 H FloridaAtlantic 108 118 80 97%
2 2 Sep-06 H McNeeseState 126 ~ ~ 99%
3 3 Sep-13 V FresnoState 61 40 81 65%
4 4 Sep-20 H Miami 38 23 52 59%
5 5 Sep-27 H Illinois 68 75 60 84%
6 6 Oct-04 V MichiganState 20 45 7 26%
7 8 Oct-18 V Northwestern 51 55 51 55%
8 9 Oct-25 H Rutgers 56 69 39 75%
9 10 Nov-01 H Purdue 101 101 97 96%
10 12 Nov-15 V Wisconsin 12 16 20 19%
11 13 Nov-22 H Minnesota 73 99 47 86%
12 14 Nov-29 V Iowa 41 61 22 41%
13 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
14 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Nebraska 2014 Profile (old projections)

Hoegher's Biased Perspective

As the prophecies have foretold, until the mountains have turned to dust and the seas have dried to sand and bones, the time of PeLLLLini shall remain.

It's really a remarkable streak, isn't it? I thought for sure it would end last year, but Hail Mary's and Georgia injury conspired to keep the legend alive. To see that my Excel sheets have whirred and clicked to spit out an 8-4 prediction for Nebraska? Oh, it warms my heart and tickles my [CENSORED]. Good news though! 8-4 regular season means a bowl winning streak!

Question for the masses: assume PeLLLLini is real and will continue from time to eternity so long as Fauxlini has an active target. How long could he keep this going before he's fired? I have to assume that at some point it would get to be too much for the administration to handle, but when is that?

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