FanPost

Hoegher's 2014 Previews: MINNESOTA BAD FOOTBALL (non-Vikings edition)

[introduction]

NOTE: All of the numbers and figures that follow are based on my ratings system, which is derived from scoring data going back to 1930. For more explanation, see my primer here: [LINK]

Data gathered from the wonderful resources provided by Sports-Reference, James Howell, cfbstats.com, and Phil Steele.

PAST PERFORMANCES OF VARYING QUALITY

Minnesota - Historical Overall Ratings

Minnesota - Historical Offense & Defense

Minnesota - Historical Win% & "Luck"

Don't forget that Lou Holtz once coached at Minnesota. He left almost immediately because he had a Notre Dame exception built into his contract.

"BEST" and "WORST" (since 1930, 9953 total teams)

Rk Year Team Adj Rk Res Rk Conf Record Adj Off Yr Rk Adj Def Yr Rk Luck Yr Rk SOS Yr Rk N.C.
76 1940 Minnesota 220 4 West 8-0 2.36 5 0.44 14 26% 1 1.05 2 Y
168 1936 Minnesota 156 263 West 7-1 2.59 3 0.33 8 1% 67 0.73 13 Y
173 1934 Minnesota 211 140 West 8-0 3.09 2 0.62 48 11% 18 0.20 52 Y
230 1941 Minnesota 382 80 West 8-0 1.93 10 0.30 4 17% 7 0.61 26 Y
265 1935 Minnesota 455 77 West 8-0 2.60 4 0.60 39 15% 6 0.34 39 Y

1940 Minnesota (Coach - Bernie Bierman)

Conf Record Luck (wins) rk Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Adj Eff rk Adj Marg rk
West 8-0 +2.1 1 2.36 5 0.44 14 0.84 7 1.92 6
Total Teams Rating rk Opp-O rk Opp-D rk SOS rk Variance rk
122 1.65 5 1.69 2 0.57 2 1.05 2 0.48 15
Gm Wk Date H/V Opponent FCS Record Opp Rk Off Rk Def Rk PF PA OT W/L W-Lk
1 3 Sep-28 H Washington ~ 7-2 13 14 9 19 14 ~ W 73%
2 4 Oct-05 H Nebraska ~ 8-2 17 30 15 13 7 ~ W 84%
3 6 Oct-19 V OhioState ~ 4-4 25 31 39 13 7 ~ W 80%
4 7 Oct-26 H Iowa ~ 4-4 52 55 49 34 6 ~ W 96%
5 8 Nov-02 V Northwestern ~ 6-2 7 6 17 13 12 ~ W 43%
6 9 Nov-09 H Michigan ~ 7-1 1 1 2 7 6 ~ W 35%
7 10 Nov-16 H Purdue ~ 2-6 54 64 44 33 6 ~ W 96%
8 11 Nov-23 V Wisconsin ~ 4-4 46 28 73 22 13 ~ W 87%

No sarcasm here, Bernie Bierman was awesome. Coached Minnesota on two separate stints, only because he left to serve in the military during his absence (still coached Iowa Pre-Flight to an 7-3 record in 1942). I'm also not going to check this, but I'm pretty sure that his Minnesota teams are the only teams in my database for which the all of my top five "best" teams are national champions. That's partly because Minnesota went in the toilet for the last half-century, but still!

What makes the 1940 season Minnesota's "best," then? Well, nothing really. Bierman's whole tenure deserves commendation, and he's obviously got three other undefeated seasons to hang his hat on. So feel free to dismiss my arguements here and pick one of his other great teams.

The real kicker for Minnesota is the teams that they beat. They beat 7-1 Michigan (my top-rated team that year), who obviously suffered their only loss to Minnesota. They beat 6-2 Northwestern (7th in my Excel sheets), who only stumbled against Minnesota and the aforementioned Michigan team. They beat 8-2 Nebraska (17th by Hoegher), who's only other loss was to undefeated Stanford. 6-2 Washington fell to Minnesota and Stanford as well (Stanford was the #2 team in the end-of-year AP Poll, by the by).

That's an impressive slate of teams to fell, and though you may argue that Minnesota got a bit of good fortune by getting almost all of those teams at home (Nebraska still lost in Lincoln, so feel free to laugh at them), that's a performance that holds plenty of water.

Props to Tim Brewster for living up to that legacy.

Rk Year Team Adj Rk Res Rk Conf Record Adj Off Yr Rk Adj Def Yr Rk Luck Yr Rk SOS Yr Rk N.C.
8114 1992 Minnesota 7660 8807 B10 2-9 0.83 81 1.20 85 -5% 75 0.17 29
8357 1974 Minnesota 8753 7237 B10 4-7 0.72 107 1.40 118 10% 23 0.07 56
8687 2007 Minnesota 8229 9311 B10 1-11 0.91 76 1.38 110 -16% 118 -0.01 66
8833 1991 Minnesota 9037 8126 B10 2-9 0.46 107 1.07 68 11% 8 0.29 12
9675 1983 Minnesota 9782 9309 B10 1-10 0.74 94 1.93 113 -2% 68 0.04 51

1983 Minnesota (Coach - Joe Salem)

Conf Record Luck (wins) rk Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Adj Eff rk Adj Marg rk
B10 1-10 -0.3 68 0.74 94 1.93 113 0.28 109 -1.19 112
Total Teams Rating rk Opp-O rk Opp-D rk SOS rk Variance rk
113 -1.04 111 1.07 36 1.01 61 0.04 51 0.15 2
Gm Wk Date H/V Opponent FCS Record Opp Rk Off Rk Def Rk PF PA OT W/L W-Lk
1 3 Sep-10 V Rice ~ 1-10 110 112 105 21 17 ~ W 40%
2 4 Sep-17 H Nebraska ~ 12-1 1 1 19 13 84 ~ L 1%
3 5 Sep-24 H Purdue ~ 3-7-1 92 67 108 20 32 ~ L 22%
4 6 Oct-01 V OhioState ~ 9-3 14 8 31 18 69 ~ L 1%
5 7 Oct-08 V Indiana ~ 3-8 95 89 95 31 38 ~ L 13%
6 8 Oct-15 H Wisconsin ~ 7-4 29 13 47 17 56 ~ L 1%
7 9 Oct-22 V Northwestern ~ 2-9 112 113 103 8 19 ~ L 40%
8 10 Oct-29 V MichiganState ~ 4-6-1 82 106 41 10 34 ~ L 6%
9 11 Nov-05 H Illinois ~ 10-2 44 30 53 23 50 ~ L 1%
10 12 Nov-12 H Michigan ~ 9-3 9 28 8 10 58 ~ L 1%
11 13 Nov-19 V Iowa ~ 9-3 33 35 22 10 61 ~ L 1%

Two things:

1) Props to knocking off Rice on the road. Granted, this was a 1-10 Rice team that ranked 110th in my numbers that year, but still: props.

2) Somehow, despite rating out as the worst Minnesota team in my database, they never got shut-out. Scoring 8 pts against a Northwestern team with the 103rd ranked defense might as well count as a shutout.

This team lost by double-digits to early-1980's Northwestern. That alone should've been grounds for firing Joe Salem on the spot. He didn't return in 1984, obviously.

FUTURE PROJECTIONS OF SUSPECT VALIDITY

Minnesota Proj Rk - 73 (out of 129)

Off Ret St - 7 (0 QB)

Def Ret St - 7

Conf Prj Rec Conf Adj Off rk Adj Def rk SOS rk C-SOS rk
B10 5-7 2-6 0.85 99 0.88 47 0.13 45 0.32 41
Gm Wk Date H/V Opponent Prj Rk Prj Off Prj Def W-Lk
1 1 Aug-28 H EasternIllinois 126 ~ ~ 99%
2 2 Sep-06 H MiddleTennessee 110 112 96 84%
3 3 Sep-13 V TCU 28 51 14 9%
4 4 Sep-20 H SanJoseState 82 87 76 70%
5 5 Sep-27 V Michigan 24 21 32 8%
6 7 Oct-11 H Northwestern 51 55 51 39%
7 8 Oct-18 H Purdue 101 101 97 81%
8 9 Oct-25 V Illinois 68 75 60 36%
9 11 Nov-08 H Iowa 41 61 22 27%
10 12 Nov-15 H OhioState 5 8 16 5%
11 13 Nov-22 V Nebraska 39 36 38 14%
12 14 Nov-29 V Wisconsin 12 16 20 3%
13 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
14 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

Minnesot 2014 Profile (old projections)

Hoegher's Biased Perspective

I think Jerry Kill is the best coach in the Big Ten (non-Urban Meyer division). His coaching tenures at Southern Illinois, Northern Illinois, and Minnesota (thus far) show a consistent program builder that Minnesota made a (rare) good choice in hiring. So suffice to say that I think my 5-7 projection is under-selling his Gophers.

But even if I'm under-selling him a bit, there's still a fair amount of difficulty for Minnesota to overcome. Illinois is probably not going to be that difficult, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them go 0-4 against the other road games on the schedule. If I make the (relatively safe) assumption that Ohio State will emerge victorious on November 15th, that's already a 7-5 season with a Floyd upset from the brink of bowl eligibility.

And the quarterback position is still something in flux. I think this is the third season in a row now that I've heard mutterings that the new guy is totally going to take a step forward and bring a solid passing attack to Minneapolis. Yet Max Shortell, Philip Nelson, and Mitch Leidner have continued to offer the same thing: early intrigue, followed by mediocre passing, then usurped by the next passer in the cycle. Perhaps it's too soon to leave Leidner to the same fate, but I reserve the right to be skeptical that he's the next coming of Chandler Harnish.

At any rate: 58-57-8. The series is tied after November, y'all.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Off Tackle Empire

You must be a member of Off Tackle Empire to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Off Tackle Empire. You should read them.

Join Off Tackle Empire

You must be a member of Off Tackle Empire to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Off Tackle Empire. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9341_tracker