[introduction]
NOTE: All of the numbers and figures that follow are based on my ratings system, which is derived from scoring data going back to 1930. For more explanation, see my primer here: [LINK]
Data gathered from the wonderful resources provided by Sports-Reference, James Howell, cfbstats.com, and Phil Steele.
PAST PERFORMANCES OF VARYING QUALITY
Minnesota - Historical Overall Ratings
Minnesota - Historical Offense & Defense
Minnesota - Historical Win% & "Luck"
Don't forget that Lou Holtz once coached at Minnesota. He left almost immediately because he had a Notre Dame exception built into his contract.
"BEST" and "WORST" (since 1930, 9953 total teams)
Rk | Year | Team | Adj Rk | Res Rk | Conf | Record | Adj Off | Yr Rk | Adj Def | Yr Rk | Luck | Yr Rk | SOS | Yr Rk | N.C. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 | 1940 | Minnesota | 220 | 4 | West | 8-0 | 2.36 | 5 | 0.44 | 14 | 26% | 1 | 1.05 | 2 | Y |
168 | 1936 | Minnesota | 156 | 263 | West | 7-1 | 2.59 | 3 | 0.33 | 8 | 1% | 67 | 0.73 | 13 | Y |
173 | 1934 | Minnesota | 211 | 140 | West | 8-0 | 3.09 | 2 | 0.62 | 48 | 11% | 18 | 0.20 | 52 | Y |
230 | 1941 | Minnesota | 382 | 80 | West | 8-0 | 1.93 | 10 | 0.30 | 4 | 17% | 7 | 0.61 | 26 | Y |
265 | 1935 | Minnesota | 455 | 77 | West | 8-0 | 2.60 | 4 | 0.60 | 39 | 15% | 6 | 0.34 | 39 | Y |
1940 Minnesota (Coach - Bernie Bierman)
Conf | Record | Luck (wins) | rk | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Adj Eff | rk | Adj Marg | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
West | 8-0 | +2.1 | 1 | 2.36 | 5 | 0.44 | 14 | 0.84 | 7 | 1.92 | 6 |
Total Teams | Rating | rk | Opp-O | rk | Opp-D | rk | SOS | rk | Variance | rk | |
122 | 1.65 | 5 | 1.69 | 2 | 0.57 | 2 | 1.05 | 2 | 0.48 | 15 |
Gm | Wk | Date | H/V | Opponent | FCS | Record | Opp Rk | Off Rk | Def Rk | PF | PA | OT | W/L | W-Lk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 3 | Sep-28 | H | Washington | ~ | 7-2 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 19 | 14 | ~ | W | 73% |
2 | 4 | Oct-05 | H | Nebraska | ~ | 8-2 | 17 | 30 | 15 | 13 | 7 | ~ | W | 84% |
3 | 6 | Oct-19 | V | OhioState | ~ | 4-4 | 25 | 31 | 39 | 13 | 7 | ~ | W | 80% |
4 | 7 | Oct-26 | H | Iowa | ~ | 4-4 | 52 | 55 | 49 | 34 | 6 | ~ | W | 96% |
5 | 8 | Nov-02 | V | Northwestern | ~ | 6-2 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 13 | 12 | ~ | W | 43% |
6 | 9 | Nov-09 | H | Michigan | ~ | 7-1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | ~ | W | 35% |
7 | 10 | Nov-16 | H | Purdue | ~ | 2-6 | 54 | 64 | 44 | 33 | 6 | ~ | W | 96% |
8 | 11 | Nov-23 | V | Wisconsin | ~ | 4-4 | 46 | 28 | 73 | 22 | 13 | ~ | W | 87% |
No sarcasm here, Bernie Bierman was awesome. Coached Minnesota on two separate stints, only because he left to serve in the military during his absence (still coached Iowa Pre-Flight to an 7-3 record in 1942). I'm also not going to check this, but I'm pretty sure that his Minnesota teams are the only teams in my database for which the all of my top five "best" teams are national champions. That's partly because Minnesota went in the toilet for the last half-century, but still!
What makes the 1940 season Minnesota's "best," then? Well, nothing really. Bierman's whole tenure deserves commendation, and he's obviously got three other undefeated seasons to hang his hat on. So feel free to dismiss my arguements here and pick one of his other great teams.
The real kicker for Minnesota is the teams that they beat. They beat 7-1 Michigan (my top-rated team that year), who obviously suffered their only loss to Minnesota. They beat 6-2 Northwestern (7th in my Excel sheets), who only stumbled against Minnesota and the aforementioned Michigan team. They beat 8-2 Nebraska (17th by Hoegher), who's only other loss was to undefeated Stanford. 6-2 Washington fell to Minnesota and Stanford as well (Stanford was the #2 team in the end-of-year AP Poll, by the by).
That's an impressive slate of teams to fell, and though you may argue that Minnesota got a bit of good fortune by getting almost all of those teams at home (Nebraska still lost in Lincoln, so feel free to laugh at them), that's a performance that holds plenty of water.
Props to Tim Brewster for living up to that legacy.
Rk | Year | Team | Adj Rk | Res Rk | Conf | Record | Adj Off | Yr Rk | Adj Def | Yr Rk | Luck | Yr Rk | SOS | Yr Rk | N.C. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8114 | 1992 | Minnesota | 7660 | 8807 | B10 | 2-9 | 0.83 | 81 | 1.20 | 85 | -5% | 75 | 0.17 | 29 | |
8357 | 1974 | Minnesota | 8753 | 7237 | B10 | 4-7 | 0.72 | 107 | 1.40 | 118 | 10% | 23 | 0.07 | 56 | |
8687 | 2007 | Minnesota | 8229 | 9311 | B10 | 1-11 | 0.91 | 76 | 1.38 | 110 | -16% | 118 | -0.01 | 66 | |
8833 | 1991 | Minnesota | 9037 | 8126 | B10 | 2-9 | 0.46 | 107 | 1.07 | 68 | 11% | 8 | 0.29 | 12 | |
9675 | 1983 | Minnesota | 9782 | 9309 | B10 | 1-10 | 0.74 | 94 | 1.93 | 113 | -2% | 68 | 0.04 | 51 |
1983 Minnesota (Coach - Joe Salem)
Conf | Record | Luck (wins) | rk | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Adj Eff | rk | Adj Marg | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B10 | 1-10 | -0.3 | 68 | 0.74 | 94 | 1.93 | 113 | 0.28 | 109 | -1.19 | 112 |
Total Teams | Rating | rk | Opp-O | rk | Opp-D | rk | SOS | rk | Variance | rk | |
113 | -1.04 | 111 | 1.07 | 36 | 1.01 | 61 | 0.04 | 51 | 0.15 | 2 |
Gm | Wk | Date | H/V | Opponent | FCS | Record | Opp Rk | Off Rk | Def Rk | PF | PA | OT | W/L | W-Lk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 3 | Sep-10 | V | Rice | ~ | 1-10 | 110 | 112 | 105 | 21 | 17 | ~ | W | 40% |
2 | 4 | Sep-17 | H | Nebraska | ~ | 12-1 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 13 | 84 | ~ | L | 1% |
3 | 5 | Sep-24 | H | Purdue | ~ | 3-7-1 | 92 | 67 | 108 | 20 | 32 | ~ | L | 22% |
4 | 6 | Oct-01 | V | OhioState | ~ | 9-3 | 14 | 8 | 31 | 18 | 69 | ~ | L | 1% |
5 | 7 | Oct-08 | V | Indiana | ~ | 3-8 | 95 | 89 | 95 | 31 | 38 | ~ | L | 13% |
6 | 8 | Oct-15 | H | Wisconsin | ~ | 7-4 | 29 | 13 | 47 | 17 | 56 | ~ | L | 1% |
7 | 9 | Oct-22 | V | Northwestern | ~ | 2-9 | 112 | 113 | 103 | 8 | 19 | ~ | L | 40% |
8 | 10 | Oct-29 | V | MichiganState | ~ | 4-6-1 | 82 | 106 | 41 | 10 | 34 | ~ | L | 6% |
9 | 11 | Nov-05 | H | Illinois | ~ | 10-2 | 44 | 30 | 53 | 23 | 50 | ~ | L | 1% |
10 | 12 | Nov-12 | H | Michigan | ~ | 9-3 | 9 | 28 | 8 | 10 | 58 | ~ | L | 1% |
11 | 13 | Nov-19 | V | Iowa | ~ | 9-3 | 33 | 35 | 22 | 10 | 61 | ~ | L | 1% |
Two things:
1) Props to knocking off Rice on the road. Granted, this was a 1-10 Rice team that ranked 110th in my numbers that year, but still: props.
2) Somehow, despite rating out as the worst Minnesota team in my database, they never got shut-out. Scoring 8 pts against a Northwestern team with the 103rd ranked defense might as well count as a shutout.
This team lost by double-digits to early-1980's Northwestern. That alone should've been grounds for firing Joe Salem on the spot. He didn't return in 1984, obviously.
FUTURE PROJECTIONS OF SUSPECT VALIDITY
Minnesota Proj Rk - 73 (out of 129)
Off Ret St - 7 (0 QB)
Def Ret St - 7
Conf | Prj Rec | Conf | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | SOS | rk | C-SOS | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B10 | 5-7 | 2-6 | 0.85 | 99 | 0.88 | 47 | 0.13 | 45 | 0.32 | 41 |
Gm | Wk | Date | H/V | Opponent | Prj Rk | Prj Off | Prj Def | W-Lk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 | Aug-28 | H | EasternIllinois | 126 | ~ | ~ | 99% |
2 | 2 | Sep-06 | H | MiddleTennessee | 110 | 112 | 96 | 84% |
3 | 3 | Sep-13 | V | TCU | 28 | 51 | 14 | 9% |
4 | 4 | Sep-20 | H | SanJoseState | 82 | 87 | 76 | 70% |
5 | 5 | Sep-27 | V | Michigan | 24 | 21 | 32 | 8% |
6 | 7 | Oct-11 | H | Northwestern | 51 | 55 | 51 | 39% |
7 | 8 | Oct-18 | H | Purdue | 101 | 101 | 97 | 81% |
8 | 9 | Oct-25 | V | Illinois | 68 | 75 | 60 | 36% |
9 | 11 | Nov-08 | H | Iowa | 41 | 61 | 22 | 27% |
10 | 12 | Nov-15 | H | OhioState | 5 | 8 | 16 | 5% |
11 | 13 | Nov-22 | V | Nebraska | 39 | 36 | 38 | 14% |
12 | 14 | Nov-29 | V | Wisconsin | 12 | 16 | 20 | 3% |
13 | ~ | ~ | ~ | ~ | ~ | ~ | ~ | ~ |
14 | ~ | ~ | ~ | ~ | ~ | ~ | ~ | ~ |
Minnesot 2014 Profile (old projections)
Hoegher's Biased Perspective
I think Jerry Kill is the best coach in the Big Ten (non-Urban Meyer division). His coaching tenures at Southern Illinois, Northern Illinois, and Minnesota (thus far) show a consistent program builder that Minnesota made a (rare) good choice in hiring. So suffice to say that I think my 5-7 projection is under-selling his Gophers.
But even if I'm under-selling him a bit, there's still a fair amount of difficulty for Minnesota to overcome. Illinois is probably not going to be that difficult, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them go 0-4 against the other road games on the schedule. If I make the (relatively safe) assumption that Ohio State will emerge victorious on November 15th, that's already a 7-5 season with a Floyd upset from the brink of bowl eligibility.
And the quarterback position is still something in flux. I think this is the third season in a row now that I've heard mutterings that the new guy is totally going to take a step forward and bring a solid passing attack to Minneapolis. Yet Max Shortell, Philip Nelson, and Mitch Leidner have continued to offer the same thing: early intrigue, followed by mediocre passing, then usurped by the next passer in the cycle. Perhaps it's too soon to leave Leidner to the same fate, but I reserve the right to be skeptical that he's the next coming of Chandler Harnish.
At any rate: 58-57-8. The series is tied after November, y'all.
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