FanPost

Hoegher's 2014 Previews: OHIO STATE TATTOO ARTISTS

Get (tr)ucked Ohio State.

NOTE: All of the numbers and figures that follow are based on my ratings system, which is derived from scoring data going back to 1930. For more explanation, see my primer here: [LINK]

Data gathered from the wonderful resources provided by Sports-Reference, James Howell, cfbstats.com, and Phil Steele.

PAST PERFORMANCES OF VARYING QUALITY

Ohio State - Historical Overall Ratings

Ohio State - Historical Offense & Defense

Ohio State - Historical Win% & "Luck"

SPOILER: Ohio State has had a lot of good teams over the years.

"BEST" and "WORST" (since 1930, 9953 total teams)

Rk Year Team Adj Rk Res Rk Conf Record Adj Off Yr Rk Adj Def Yr Rk Luck Yr Rk SOS Yr Rk N.C.
66 1973 OhioState 32 427 B10 10-0-1 1.92 3 0.28 1 0% 70 0.08 56
94 1954 OhioState 160 39 B10 10-0 1.97 4 0.37 2 9% 19 0.52 6 Y
96 1996 OhioState 105 137 B10 11-1 1.65 5 0.39 1 1% 55 0.29 10
102 1998 OhioState 110 189 B10 11-1 1.79 2 0.47 4 -3% 69 0.22 22
147 2006 OhioState 135 285 B10 12-1 1.65 4 0.49 3 2% 51 0.13 34

1973 Ohio State (Coach - Woody Hayes)

Conf Record Luck (wins) rk Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Adj Eff rk Adj Marg rk
B10 10-0-1 -0.0 70 1.92 3 0.28 1 0.87 1 1.63 3
Total Teams Rating rk Opp-O rk Opp-D rk SOS rk Variance rk
130 1.56 1 0.99 75 0.92 42 0.08 56 0.34 41
Gm Wk Date H/V Opponent FCS Record Opp Rk Off Rk Def Rk PF PA OT W/L W-Lk
1 3 Sep-15 H Minnesota ~ 7-4 54 29 88 56 7 ~ W 99%
2 5 Sep-29 H TCU ~ 3-8 94 104 76 37 3 ~ W 99%
3 6 Oct-06 H WashingtonState ~ 5-6 75 63 74 27 3 ~ W 99%
4 7 Oct-13 V Wisconsin ~ 4-7 66 66 68 24 0 ~ W 99%
5 8 Oct-20 V Indiana ~ 2-9 84 75 81 37 7 ~ W 99%
6 9 Oct-27 H Northwestern ~ 4-7 92 89 90 60 0 ~ W 99%
7 10 Nov-03 V Illinois ~ 5-6 57 110 17 30 0 ~ W 99%
8 11 Nov-10 H MichiganState ~ 5-6 63 116 14 35 0 ~ W 99%
9 12 Nov-17 H Iowa ~ 0-11 107 84 115 55 13 ~ W 99%
10 13 Nov-24 H Michigan ~ 10-0-1 5 12 2 10 10 ~ T 74%
11 20 Jan-01 V USC ~ 9-2-1 15 15 25 42 21 ~ W 87%

With as many great teams as Ohio State has had over the years, I don't expect to get much agreement with the "best of" list I have up there, so I won't really try to justify it. As sentient living beings, y'all are allowed to have your own opinions.

I will try to justify the lack of national title teams on that list, though. It's worth remembering that winning a national title takes a fair bit of luck, even for the best of teams. Oregon has been one of the best teams over the last half decade and zero crystal footballs. Alabama has three, and yet a single undefeated season (aided by an opponent's injury, even).

So a team like Ohio State, which puts out a high quality team year in and year out (for the most part), is bound to have a couple great teams that tripped up their championship dreams, as well as a couple great (but perhaps not quite as great) teams that got a bit of good fortune.

And Woody Hayes punched a player, so (tr)that guy.

Rk Year Team Adj Rk Res Rk Conf Record Adj Off Yr Rk Adj Def Yr Rk Luck Yr Rk SOS Yr Rk N.C.
5186 1967 OhioState 5234 5089 B10 6-3 0.78 89 0.75 36 2% 54 -0.24 104
5511 1988 OhioState 5342 5748 B10 4-6-1 1.18 28 1.16 77 3% 37 0.23 22
5596 1959 OhioState 5455 5768 B10 3-5-1 0.79 82 0.79 38 5% 34 0.38 20
7188 1966 OhioState 7240 7022 B10 4-5 0.73 95 1.03 69 -3% 72 -0.17 100
7451 1947 OhioState 7544 7164 West 2-6-1 0.54 108 0.94 70 16% 5 0.70 10

1947 Ohio State (Coach - Wesley Fesler)

Conf Record Luck (wins) rk Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Adj Eff rk Adj Marg rk
West 2-6-1 +1.4 5 0.54 108 0.94 70 0.36 98 -0.41 93
Total Teams Rating rk Opp-O rk Opp-D rk SOS rk Variance rk
121 -0.48 94 1.51 5 0.74 20 0.70 10 0.78 85
Gm Wk Date H/V Opponent FCS Record Opp Rk Off Rk Def Rk PF PA OT W/L W-Lk
1 3 Sep-27 H Missouri ~ 6-4 25 14 51 13 7 ~ W 5%
2 4 Oct-04 V Purdue ~ 5-4 34 21 61 20 24 ~ L 3%
3 5 Oct-11 H USC ~ 7-2-1 8 16 8 0 32 ~ L 1%
4 6 Oct-18 V Iowa ~ 3-5-1 64 49 74 13 13 ~ T 12%
5 7 Oct-25 V Pittsburgh ~ 1-8 107 114 86 0 12 ~ L 60%
6 8 Nov-01 H Indiana ~ 5-3-1 49 63 35 0 7 ~ L 16%
7 9 Nov-08 H Northwestern ~ 3-6 22 7 66 7 6 ~ W 4%
8 10 Nov-15 H Illinois ~ 5-3-1 28 25 45 7 28 ~ L 7%
9 11 Nov-22 V Michigan ~ 10-0 1 1 9 0 21 ~ L 1%

In my database (since 1930), there are six Buckeye teams that have losing records on the season. One was the 2011 Fickell year (6-7), which we all remember fondly. John Cooper had one in 1988 to begin his career (4-6-1). And Paul Brown had one in 1943 (3-6), but I'll give him a pass because of extraneous world events.

Wesley Fesler owns one of the remaining three (points above), which was enough for me to dismiss him as a failed coach (also, I had no idea who this was before starting this write up). However, I'll give him credit, as he won the Rose Bowl two years later. So my apologies for making assumptions.

Later, he left Ohio State for Minnesota, I'm going to assume under his own volition, as that's much funnier to imagine.

* The other two losing records are owned by Woody Hayes (3-5-1 in 1959, 4-5-0 in 1966), the only coach (disregarding Paul Brown and WWII) to suffer those in years other than his debut.

FUTURE PROJECTIONS OF SUSPECT VALIDITY

Ohio State Proj Rk - 5 (out of 129)

Off Ret St - 5 (1 QB)

Def Ret St - 7

Conf Prj Rec Conf Adj Off rk Adj Def rk SOS rk C-SOS rk
B10 11-1 7-1 1.49 8 0.69 16 0.22 23 0.23 57
Gm Wk Date H/V Opponent Prj Rk Prj Off Prj Def W-Lk
1 1 Aug-30 N Navy 48 58 30 88%
2 2 Sep-06 H VirginiaTech 34 67 9 87%
3 3 Sep-13 H KentState 87 108 69 99%
4 5 Sep-27 H Cincinnati 43 35 45 90%
5 6 Oct-04 V Maryland 59 73 49 91%
6 8 Oct-18 H Rutgers 56 69 39 96%
7 9 Oct-25 V PennState 31 57 11 72%
8 10 Nov-01 H Illinois 68 75 60 98%
9 11 Nov-08 V MichiganState 20 45 7 64%
10 12 Nov-15 V Minnesota 73 99 47 95%
11 13 Nov-22 H Indiana 58 11 109 96%
12 14 Nov-29 H Michigan 24 21 32 83%

Ohio State 2014 Profile (old projections)

Hoegher's Biased Perspective

The Big Ten has one national title contender in our midst. The Pac-12 has three (Oregon, Stanford, USC). The Big 12 has two (Oklahoma, and whatever hydra head emerges out of the Texas/Baylor/KSU/OSU). The SEC has half the damn conference, because that's how they do (Alabama, LSU, UGA, SC, Auburn/Florida depending on your mood). The ACC just has one (Georgia Tech, of course), so at least we've got company.

That's not to say we don't have others that are close. Penn State looks well set up when their get through the last of their sanctions, and if Michigan can ever figure out how to kill whatever under-achievement bug they caught, they'll be golden. Michigan STate, Wisconsin, and Iowa have shown the ability to rise up and surprise on any given year, thought I wouldn't ever bet on any of them consistently.

This may be the part of the spiel where you think I tell y'all to gut up an cheer for Ohio State, for the betterment of the Big Ten reputation. That's a crock of sticks, because I'll be damned if I cheer for Ohio State in anything. Is Ohio State the Big Ten's best shot at winning a championship? Absolutely. Will I still cheer madly for the wonderful tears of schadenfreude? Absolutely.

It has been 1715 days since Ohio State won a Big Ten title, and I hope it continues to be many, many more.

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