Get (tr)ucked Ohio State.
NOTE: All of the numbers and figures that follow are based on my ratings system, which is derived from scoring data going back to 1930. For more explanation, see my primer here: [LINK]
Data gathered from the wonderful resources provided by Sports-Reference, James Howell, cfbstats.com, and Phil Steele.
PAST PERFORMANCES OF VARYING QUALITY
Ohio State - Historical Overall Ratings
Ohio State - Historical Offense & Defense
Ohio State - Historical Win% & "Luck"
SPOILER: Ohio State has had a lot of good teams over the years.
"BEST" and "WORST" (since 1930, 9953 total teams)
Rk | Year | Team | Adj Rk | Res Rk | Conf | Record | Adj Off | Yr Rk | Adj Def | Yr Rk | Luck | Yr Rk | SOS | Yr Rk | N.C. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 | 1973 | OhioState | 32 | 427 | B10 | 10-0-1 | 1.92 | 3 | 0.28 | 1 | 0% | 70 | 0.08 | 56 | |
94 | 1954 | OhioState | 160 | 39 | B10 | 10-0 | 1.97 | 4 | 0.37 | 2 | 9% | 19 | 0.52 | 6 | Y |
96 | 1996 | OhioState | 105 | 137 | B10 | 11-1 | 1.65 | 5 | 0.39 | 1 | 1% | 55 | 0.29 | 10 | |
102 | 1998 | OhioState | 110 | 189 | B10 | 11-1 | 1.79 | 2 | 0.47 | 4 | -3% | 69 | 0.22 | 22 | |
147 | 2006 | OhioState | 135 | 285 | B10 | 12-1 | 1.65 | 4 | 0.49 | 3 | 2% | 51 | 0.13 | 34 |
1973 Ohio State (Coach - Woody Hayes)
Conf | Record | Luck (wins) | rk | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Adj Eff | rk | Adj Marg | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B10 | 10-0-1 | -0.0 | 70 | 1.92 | 3 | 0.28 | 1 | 0.87 | 1 | 1.63 | 3 |
Total Teams | Rating | rk | Opp-O | rk | Opp-D | rk | SOS | rk | Variance | rk | |
130 | 1.56 | 1 | 0.99 | 75 | 0.92 | 42 | 0.08 | 56 | 0.34 | 41 |
Gm | Wk | Date | H/V | Opponent | FCS | Record | Opp Rk | Off Rk | Def Rk | PF | PA | OT | W/L | W-Lk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 3 | Sep-15 | H | Minnesota | ~ | 7-4 | 54 | 29 | 88 | 56 | 7 | ~ | W | 99% |
2 | 5 | Sep-29 | H | TCU | ~ | 3-8 | 94 | 104 | 76 | 37 | 3 | ~ | W | 99% |
3 | 6 | Oct-06 | H | WashingtonState | ~ | 5-6 | 75 | 63 | 74 | 27 | 3 | ~ | W | 99% |
4 | 7 | Oct-13 | V | Wisconsin | ~ | 4-7 | 66 | 66 | 68 | 24 | 0 | ~ | W | 99% |
5 | 8 | Oct-20 | V | Indiana | ~ | 2-9 | 84 | 75 | 81 | 37 | 7 | ~ | W | 99% |
6 | 9 | Oct-27 | H | Northwestern | ~ | 4-7 | 92 | 89 | 90 | 60 | 0 | ~ | W | 99% |
7 | 10 | Nov-03 | V | Illinois | ~ | 5-6 | 57 | 110 | 17 | 30 | 0 | ~ | W | 99% |
8 | 11 | Nov-10 | H | MichiganState | ~ | 5-6 | 63 | 116 | 14 | 35 | 0 | ~ | W | 99% |
9 | 12 | Nov-17 | H | Iowa | ~ | 0-11 | 107 | 84 | 115 | 55 | 13 | ~ | W | 99% |
10 | 13 | Nov-24 | H | Michigan | ~ | 10-0-1 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 10 | ~ | T | 74% |
11 | 20 | Jan-01 | V | USC | ~ | 9-2-1 | 15 | 15 | 25 | 42 | 21 | ~ | W | 87% |
With as many great teams as Ohio State has had over the years, I don't expect to get much agreement with the "best of" list I have up there, so I won't really try to justify it. As sentient living beings, y'all are allowed to have your own opinions.
I will try to justify the lack of national title teams on that list, though. It's worth remembering that winning a national title takes a fair bit of luck, even for the best of teams. Oregon has been one of the best teams over the last half decade and zero crystal footballs. Alabama has three, and yet a single undefeated season (aided by an opponent's injury, even).
So a team like Ohio State, which puts out a high quality team year in and year out (for the most part), is bound to have a couple great teams that tripped up their championship dreams, as well as a couple great (but perhaps not quite as great) teams that got a bit of good fortune.
And Woody Hayes punched a player, so (tr)that guy.
Rk | Year | Team | Adj Rk | Res Rk | Conf | Record | Adj Off | Yr Rk | Adj Def | Yr Rk | Luck | Yr Rk | SOS | Yr Rk | N.C. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5186 | 1967 | OhioState | 5234 | 5089 | B10 | 6-3 | 0.78 | 89 | 0.75 | 36 | 2% | 54 | -0.24 | 104 | |
5511 | 1988 | OhioState | 5342 | 5748 | B10 | 4-6-1 | 1.18 | 28 | 1.16 | 77 | 3% | 37 | 0.23 | 22 | |
5596 | 1959 | OhioState | 5455 | 5768 | B10 | 3-5-1 | 0.79 | 82 | 0.79 | 38 | 5% | 34 | 0.38 | 20 | |
7188 | 1966 | OhioState | 7240 | 7022 | B10 | 4-5 | 0.73 | 95 | 1.03 | 69 | -3% | 72 | -0.17 | 100 | |
7451 | 1947 | OhioState | 7544 | 7164 | West | 2-6-1 | 0.54 | 108 | 0.94 | 70 | 16% | 5 | 0.70 | 10 |
1947 Ohio State (Coach - Wesley Fesler)
Conf | Record | Luck (wins) | rk | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Adj Eff | rk | Adj Marg | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
West | 2-6-1 | +1.4 | 5 | 0.54 | 108 | 0.94 | 70 | 0.36 | 98 | -0.41 | 93 |
Total Teams | Rating | rk | Opp-O | rk | Opp-D | rk | SOS | rk | Variance | rk | |
121 | -0.48 | 94 | 1.51 | 5 | 0.74 | 20 | 0.70 | 10 | 0.78 | 85 |
Gm | Wk | Date | H/V | Opponent | FCS | Record | Opp Rk | Off Rk | Def Rk | PF | PA | OT | W/L | W-Lk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 3 | Sep-27 | H | Missouri | ~ | 6-4 | 25 | 14 | 51 | 13 | 7 | ~ | W | 5% |
2 | 4 | Oct-04 | V | Purdue | ~ | 5-4 | 34 | 21 | 61 | 20 | 24 | ~ | L | 3% |
3 | 5 | Oct-11 | H | USC | ~ | 7-2-1 | 8 | 16 | 8 | 0 | 32 | ~ | L | 1% |
4 | 6 | Oct-18 | V | Iowa | ~ | 3-5-1 | 64 | 49 | 74 | 13 | 13 | ~ | T | 12% |
5 | 7 | Oct-25 | V | Pittsburgh | ~ | 1-8 | 107 | 114 | 86 | 0 | 12 | ~ | L | 60% |
6 | 8 | Nov-01 | H | Indiana | ~ | 5-3-1 | 49 | 63 | 35 | 0 | 7 | ~ | L | 16% |
7 | 9 | Nov-08 | H | Northwestern | ~ | 3-6 | 22 | 7 | 66 | 7 | 6 | ~ | W | 4% |
8 | 10 | Nov-15 | H | Illinois | ~ | 5-3-1 | 28 | 25 | 45 | 7 | 28 | ~ | L | 7% |
9 | 11 | Nov-22 | V | Michigan | ~ | 10-0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 21 | ~ | L | 1% |
In my database (since 1930), there are six Buckeye teams that have losing records on the season. One was the 2011 Fickell year (6-7), which we all remember fondly. John Cooper had one in 1988 to begin his career (4-6-1). And Paul Brown had one in 1943 (3-6), but I'll give him a pass because of extraneous world events.
Wesley Fesler owns one of the remaining three (points above), which was enough for me to dismiss him as a failed coach (also, I had no idea who this was before starting this write up). However, I'll give him credit, as he won the Rose Bowl two years later. So my apologies for making assumptions.
Later, he left Ohio State for Minnesota, I'm going to assume under his own volition, as that's much funnier to imagine.
* The other two losing records are owned by Woody Hayes (3-5-1 in 1959, 4-5-0 in 1966), the only coach (disregarding Paul Brown and WWII) to suffer those in years other than his debut.
FUTURE PROJECTIONS OF SUSPECT VALIDITY
Ohio State Proj Rk - 5 (out of 129)
Off Ret St - 5 (1 QB)
Def Ret St - 7
Conf | Prj Rec | Conf | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | SOS | rk | C-SOS | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B10 | 11-1 | 7-1 | 1.49 | 8 | 0.69 | 16 | 0.22 | 23 | 0.23 | 57 |
Gm | Wk | Date | H/V | Opponent | Prj Rk | Prj Off | Prj Def | W-Lk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 | Aug-30 | N | Navy | 48 | 58 | 30 | 88% |
2 | 2 | Sep-06 | H | VirginiaTech | 34 | 67 | 9 | 87% |
3 | 3 | Sep-13 | H | KentState | 87 | 108 | 69 | 99% |
4 | 5 | Sep-27 | H | Cincinnati | 43 | 35 | 45 | 90% |
5 | 6 | Oct-04 | V | Maryland | 59 | 73 | 49 | 91% |
6 | 8 | Oct-18 | H | Rutgers | 56 | 69 | 39 | 96% |
7 | 9 | Oct-25 | V | PennState | 31 | 57 | 11 | 72% |
8 | 10 | Nov-01 | H | Illinois | 68 | 75 | 60 | 98% |
9 | 11 | Nov-08 | V | MichiganState | 20 | 45 | 7 | 64% |
10 | 12 | Nov-15 | V | Minnesota | 73 | 99 | 47 | 95% |
11 | 13 | Nov-22 | H | Indiana | 58 | 11 | 109 | 96% |
12 | 14 | Nov-29 | H | Michigan | 24 | 21 | 32 | 83% |
Ohio State 2014 Profile (old projections)
Hoegher's Biased Perspective
The Big Ten has one national title contender in our midst. The Pac-12 has three (Oregon, Stanford, USC). The Big 12 has two (Oklahoma, and whatever hydra head emerges out of the Texas/Baylor/KSU/OSU). The SEC has half the damn conference, because that's how they do (Alabama, LSU, UGA, SC, Auburn/Florida depending on your mood). The ACC just has one (Georgia Tech, of course), so at least we've got company.
That's not to say we don't have others that are close. Penn State looks well set up when their get through the last of their sanctions, and if Michigan can ever figure out how to kill whatever under-achievement bug they caught, they'll be golden. Michigan STate, Wisconsin, and Iowa have shown the ability to rise up and surprise on any given year, thought I wouldn't ever bet on any of them consistently.
This may be the part of the spiel where you think I tell y'all to gut up an cheer for Ohio State, for the betterment of the Big Ten reputation. That's a crock of sticks, because I'll be damned if I cheer for Ohio State in anything. Is Ohio State the Big Ten's best shot at winning a championship? Absolutely. Will I still cheer madly for the wonderful tears of schadenfreude? Absolutely.
It has been 1715 days since Ohio State won a Big Ten title, and I hope it continues to be many, many more.
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