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Hoegher's 2014 Rankings: WEEK ONE

FOOTBALL IS BACK. OH GOD, NEVER LEAVE US AGAIN.

I've made some minor changes to my projections, both with their coefficients and the number of returning starters, as updated here. Also: try this link out [LINKY] and let me know what y'all think!

THE RANKINGS

rk LW NCAA Team Conf Record Prj Rec Rating Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
1 1 FloridaState ACC ~ 12-0 1.10 1.68 2 0.55 2
2 2 Alabama SEC ~ 11-1 1.02 1.43 7 0.47 1
3 4 Oregon Pac-12 ~ 11-1 0.89 1.70 1 0.75 22
4 13 Stanford Pac-12 ~ 9-3 0.71 1.25 21 0.60 3
5 19 Oklahoma B12 ~ 10-2 0.69 1.31 17 0.65 7
6 5 Auburn SEC ~ 9-3 0.67 1.50 5 0.81 33
7 6 OhioState B10 ~ 10-2 0.65 1.35 13 0.71 15
8 15 UCLA Pac-12 ~ 9-3 0.64 1.38 9 0.74 20
9 16 SouthCarolina SEC ~ 9-3 0.63 1.30 18 0.70 11
10 3 Baylor B12 ~ 10-2 0.62 1.67 3 0.98 63
11 9 Wisconsin B10 ~ 10-2 0.61 1.33 14 0.74 18
12 18 LSU SEC ~ 8-4 0.59 1.24 23 0.68 10
13 8 Clemson ACC ~ 9-3 0.58 1.31 15 0.75 24
14 20 Georgia SEC ~ 9-3 0.56 1.37 11 0.81 31
15 26 USC Pac-12 ~ 9-3 0.55 1.19 30 0.68 8
16 41 BoiseState MWC ~ 11-1 0.55 1.22 24 0.70 12
17 17 MichiganState B10 ~ 9-3 0.51 1.08 44 0.63 4
18 14 OklahomaState B12 ~ 8-4 0.50 1.35 12 0.85 38
19 10 Washington Pac-12 ~ 9-4 0.49 1.20 27 0.74 19
20 22 TexasAM SEC ~ 8-4 0.48 1.51 4 0.99 68
21 7 ArizonaState Pac-12 ~ 8-4 0.48 1.49 6 0.98 64
22 36 MississippiState SEC ~ 8-4 0.46 1.06 49 0.65 6
23 25 BYU Ind. ~ 9-3 0.46 1.20 28 0.76 25
24 23 CentralFlorida Amer ~ 10-2 0.45 1.12 37 0.71 13
25 33 Houston Amer ~ 10-2 0.43 1.31 16 0.88 44

And the Big Ten in particular...

rk LW NCAA Team Conf Record Prj Rec Rating Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
7 6 OhioState B10 ~ 10-2 0.65 1.35 13 0.71 15
11 9 Wisconsin B10 ~ 10-2 0.61 1.33 14 0.74 18
17 17 MichiganState B10 ~ 9-3 0.51 1.08 44 0.63 4
26 39 Michigan B10 ~ 8-4 0.43 1.24 22 0.82 35
38 38 Iowa B10 ~ 9-3 0.30 1.02 59 0.75 23
45 51 PennState B10 ~ 7-5 0.24 0.95 68 0.74 17
46 52 Nebraska B10 ~ 8-4 0.22 1.12 38 0.91 50
50 56 Indiana B10 ~ 6-6 0.13 1.41 8 1.26 112
55 68 Northwestern B10 ~ 6-6 0.10 0.99 61 0.89 49
57 81 Rutgers B10 ~ 5-7 0.09 0.97 63 0.89 47
59 71 Maryland B10 ~ 5-7 0.06 0.93 75 0.87 42
70 61 Minnesota B10 ~ 5-7 -0.07 0.80 100 0.86 40
74 77 Illinois B10 ~ 5-7 -0.11 0.93 72 1.04 76
99 113 Purdue B10 ~ 3-9 -0.34 0.78 104 1.09 88

If you're curious about those win projections, here's a Google Doc link that you can play around with.

Let's just cut right to the chase: why I am wrong? Especially on your team in particular. It's like I didn't even read about all the offseason work QUARTERBACK has been putting in! And what about the changes on the coaching staff?

While I regret that I failed to consider all of the offseason efforts of your team, let's soldier on anyway. Since I've got rankings and returning starter data (via Phil Steele) going back a few years, we can use the power of hindsight to see where I've gone astray previously. Since I'm lazy, we'll only do this for 2013. Since I don't care about a random Sun Belt team, we'll also limit it to BCS conferences only (no, the EFF COMMUNISM Conference doesn't count). First up, the under-rateds:

Team Conf Pre Rk Final Diff Ret Off Ret Def Ret QB 2012 rk 2011 rk 2010 rk 2009 rk 2008 rk
WashingtonState Pac-12 107 49 58 7 9 0 105 79 93 117 118
Auburn SEC 57 5 52 7 7 0 79 56 7 36 72
Duke ACC 82 31 51 7 7 0 70 93 95 86 69
Baylor B12 39 3 36 5 7 0 28 21 45 74 55
UCLA Pac-12 48 15 33 7 5 1 35 74 77 54 87

Tempting to see Gus Malzahn's turnaround at Auburn and just chalk everything up to new coaches, but I don't think that's all it is. Art Briles and David Cutliffe have been at their jobs (Baylor and Duke) for a couple years now, and the next couple names on this list (not posted here) have Steve Sarkasian (Washington), Gary Pinkel (Missouri), and our beloved punt-master Kirk Ferentz. As with most things in reality, it's probably a number of contributing factors. And the over-rateds:

Team Conf Pre Rk Final Diff Ret Off Ret Def Ret QB 2012 rk 2011 rk 2010 rk 2009 rk 2008 kr
Florida SEC 6 59 -53 6 4 1 5 33 24 2 2
TCU B12 9 57 -48 6 8 1 30 17 4 6 7
Texas B12 4 44 -40 10 9 1 21 25 57 3 5
Northwestern B10 29 68 -39 8 7 1 26 59 69 68 36
OregonState Pac-12 16 53 -37 8 7 1 11 89 31 29 17

This seems to have a clearer message: injuries are a bitch. But given that Arkansas is #6 on this list, I'm just going to go with #karma.

ROAD TO UN-GLORY - Quest for the Crusty Football. I'm still deciding whether that's too gross to put in here, but one of my favorite parts of each football season is admiring the bad-ness of the worst major college teams. Florida State winning a national title with a Heisman trophy winner? BORING. Purdue failing to run a red-zone play for five weeks? That's where the true legends are made.

As indicated, our lovely Boilermakers came home with the trophy last year, ending at #113 in my rankings of nebulous value. Other previous winners include:

2012 - #121 Colorado (1-11)

2011 - #107 Indiana (1-11)

2010 - #105 Kansas (3-9)

2009 - #117 Wazzu (1-11)

The season hasn't started yet, but we can make some educated guesses on who will take up the mantle of bad passes, missed tackles, and fumbling. As well as the odds on that white whale of football futility - the perfect season. A task so difficult, even Colorado couldn't manage it.

Again, this is major conference teams only, so apologies to Tulane.

#100 - Kansas (2-10 proj rec, 1% chance of perfection)

#99 - Purdue (3-9, 0%)

#86 - Colorado (3-9, 0%)

#76 - Kentucky (4-8, 0%)

#75 - California (3-9, 0%)

It may be apparent that the odds on perfection are long. That's to be expected, even the "best" odds on that are only 24% (Massachusetts, if you're wondering). IRREGARDLESS: I remain hopeful. DON'T FVCK IT UP, WESTERN MICHIGAN.

THE PICKINGS

Lines taken from 5Dimes here as of 2014-08-23. Home teams in blue.

Date Overcat Underdog Proj Winner W Lk Line Hoegh Pick vs Spd
Aug 28 SouthCarolina TexasAM SouthCarolina 72% 10.5 7.5 TexasAM
Aug 28 WakeForest LouisianaMonroe LouisianaMonroe 59% 2.5 -2.7 LouisianaMonroe
Aug 28 Tulsa Tulane Tulsa 68% 4.5 5.9 Tulsa
Aug 28 Mississippi BoiseState BoiseState 71% 10.0 -6.9 BoiseState
Aug 28 Vanderbilt Temple Vanderbilt 75% 14.0 8.5 Temple
Aug 28 WashingtonState Rutgers WashingtonState 57% 8.0 2.2 Rutgers
Aug 29 BYU Connecticut BYU 93% 16.5 18.6 BYU
Aug 29 BowlingGreen WesternKentucky BowlingGreen 69% 8.0 6.3 WesternKentucky
Aug 29 Houston UTSA Houston 92% 11.0 18.1 Houston
Aug 29 Colorado ColoradoState Colorado 57% 3.0 2.3 ColoradoState
Aug 29 Arizona UNLV Arizona 99% 23.5 27.2 Arizona
Aug 30 CentralFlorida PennState CentralFlorida 69% 1.0 6.2 CentralFlorida
Aug 30 UCLA Virginia UCLA 89% 21.5 15.9 Virginia
Aug 30 Purdue WesternMichigan Purdue 81% 11.5 11.2 WesternMichigan
Aug 30 OhioState Navy OhioState 81% 13.5 11.6 Navy
Aug 30 Troy UAB Troy 70% 1.0 6.8 Troy
Aug 30 Michigan AppalachianState Michigan 99% 34.0 39.4 Michigan
Aug 30 NorthCarolinaState GeorgiaSouthern NorthCarolinaState 98% 22.5 26.1 NorthCarolinaState
Aug 30 BostonCollege Massachusetts BostonCollege 94% 14.5 20.2 BostonCollege
Aug 30 NotreDame Rice NotreDame 96% 21.0 22.2 NotreDame
Aug 30 Northwestern California Northwestern 80% 11.0 10.9 California
Aug 30 Nebraska FloridaAtlantic Nebraska 93% 23.0 19.2 FloridaAtlantic
Aug 30 Alabama WestVirginia Alabama 99% 25.5 27.6 Alabama
Aug 30 Marshall MiamiOH Marshall 98% 24.0 25.0 Marshall
Aug 30 Auburn Arkansas Auburn 93% 20.5 19.0 Arkansas
Aug 30 Georgia Clemson Georgia 59% 7.5 2.6 Clemson
Aug 30 KentState Ohio KentState 71% 3.0 7.3 KentState
Aug 30 Oklahoma LouisianaTech Oklahoma 99% 37.5 33.2 LouisianaTech
Aug 30 Florida Idaho Florida 99% 34.5 31.8 Idaho
Aug 30 MississippiState SouthernMississippi MississippiState 99% 30.5 33.6 MississippiState
Aug 30 USC FresnoState USC 93% 21.0 18.7 FresnoState
Aug 30 NewMexico UTEP NewMexico 63% 7.5 4.1 UTEP
Aug 30 FloridaState OklahomaState FloridaState 91% 17.5 17.5 FloridaState
Aug 30 Texas NorthTexas Texas 94% 24.0 20.2 NorthTexas
Aug 30 LSU Wisconsin Wisconsin 51% 4.0 -0.4 Wisconsin
Aug 30 Washington Hawaii Washington 96% 15.5 22.4 Washington
Aug 31 Tennessee UtahState Tennessee 58% 6.5 2.6 UtahState
Aug 31 Baylor SMU Baylor 99% 32.5 30.0 SMU
Sep 01 Louisville Miami Louisville 68% 3.5 5.9 Louisville

And the Big Ten in particular...

Date Overcat Underdog Proj Winner W Lk Line Hoegh Pick vs Spd
Aug 30 Michigan AppalachianState Michigan 99% 34.0 39.4 Michigan
Aug 30 Nebraska FloridaAtlantic Nebraska 93% 23.0 19.2 FloridaAtlantic
Aug 30 Northwestern California Northwestern 80% 11.0 10.9 California
Aug 30 OhioState Navy OhioState 81% 13.5 11.6 Navy
Aug 30 CentralFlorida PennState CentralFlorida 69% 1.0 6.2 CentralFlorida
Aug 30 Purdue WesternMichigan Purdue 81% 11.5 11.2 WesternMichigan
Aug 28 WashingtonState Rutgers WashingtonState 57% 8.0 2.2 Rutgers
Aug 30 LSU Wisconsin Wisconsin 51% 4.0 -0.4 Wisconsin

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