FOOTBALL IS BACK. OH GOD, NEVER LEAVE US AGAIN.
I've made some minor changes to my projections, both with their coefficients and the number of returning starters, as updated here. Also: try this link out [LINKY] and let me know what y'all think!
THE RANKINGS
rk | LW | NCAA Team | Conf | Record | Prj Rec | Rating | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 | FloridaState | ACC | ~ | 12-0 | 1.10 | 1.68 | 2 | 0.55 | 2 |
2 | 2 | Alabama | SEC | ~ | 11-1 | 1.02 | 1.43 | 7 | 0.47 | 1 |
3 | 4 | Oregon | Pac-12 | ~ | 11-1 | 0.89 | 1.70 | 1 | 0.75 | 22 |
4 | 13 | Stanford | Pac-12 | ~ | 9-3 | 0.71 | 1.25 | 21 | 0.60 | 3 |
5 | 19 | Oklahoma | B12 | ~ | 10-2 | 0.69 | 1.31 | 17 | 0.65 | 7 |
6 | 5 | Auburn | SEC | ~ | 9-3 | 0.67 | 1.50 | 5 | 0.81 | 33 |
7 | 6 | OhioState | B10 | ~ | 10-2 | 0.65 | 1.35 | 13 | 0.71 | 15 |
8 | 15 | UCLA | Pac-12 | ~ | 9-3 | 0.64 | 1.38 | 9 | 0.74 | 20 |
9 | 16 | SouthCarolina | SEC | ~ | 9-3 | 0.63 | 1.30 | 18 | 0.70 | 11 |
10 | 3 | Baylor | B12 | ~ | 10-2 | 0.62 | 1.67 | 3 | 0.98 | 63 |
11 | 9 | Wisconsin | B10 | ~ | 10-2 | 0.61 | 1.33 | 14 | 0.74 | 18 |
12 | 18 | LSU | SEC | ~ | 8-4 | 0.59 | 1.24 | 23 | 0.68 | 10 |
13 | 8 | Clemson | ACC | ~ | 9-3 | 0.58 | 1.31 | 15 | 0.75 | 24 |
14 | 20 | Georgia | SEC | ~ | 9-3 | 0.56 | 1.37 | 11 | 0.81 | 31 |
15 | 26 | USC | Pac-12 | ~ | 9-3 | 0.55 | 1.19 | 30 | 0.68 | 8 |
16 | 41 | BoiseState | MWC | ~ | 11-1 | 0.55 | 1.22 | 24 | 0.70 | 12 |
17 | 17 | MichiganState | B10 | ~ | 9-3 | 0.51 | 1.08 | 44 | 0.63 | 4 |
18 | 14 | OklahomaState | B12 | ~ | 8-4 | 0.50 | 1.35 | 12 | 0.85 | 38 |
19 | 10 | Washington | Pac-12 | ~ | 9-4 | 0.49 | 1.20 | 27 | 0.74 | 19 |
20 | 22 | TexasAM | SEC | ~ | 8-4 | 0.48 | 1.51 | 4 | 0.99 | 68 |
21 | 7 | ArizonaState | Pac-12 | ~ | 8-4 | 0.48 | 1.49 | 6 | 0.98 | 64 |
22 | 36 | MississippiState | SEC | ~ | 8-4 | 0.46 | 1.06 | 49 | 0.65 | 6 |
23 | 25 | BYU | Ind. | ~ | 9-3 | 0.46 | 1.20 | 28 | 0.76 | 25 |
24 | 23 | CentralFlorida | Amer | ~ | 10-2 | 0.45 | 1.12 | 37 | 0.71 | 13 |
25 | 33 | Houston | Amer | ~ | 10-2 | 0.43 | 1.31 | 16 | 0.88 | 44 |
And the Big Ten in particular...
rk | LW | NCAA Team | Conf | Record | Prj Rec | Rating | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
7 | 6 | OhioState | B10 | ~ | 10-2 | 0.65 | 1.35 | 13 | 0.71 | 15 |
11 | 9 | Wisconsin | B10 | ~ | 10-2 | 0.61 | 1.33 | 14 | 0.74 | 18 |
17 | 17 | MichiganState | B10 | ~ | 9-3 | 0.51 | 1.08 | 44 | 0.63 | 4 |
26 | 39 | Michigan | B10 | ~ | 8-4 | 0.43 | 1.24 | 22 | 0.82 | 35 |
38 | 38 | Iowa | B10 | ~ | 9-3 | 0.30 | 1.02 | 59 | 0.75 | 23 |
45 | 51 | PennState | B10 | ~ | 7-5 | 0.24 | 0.95 | 68 | 0.74 | 17 |
46 | 52 | Nebraska | B10 | ~ | 8-4 | 0.22 | 1.12 | 38 | 0.91 | 50 |
50 | 56 | Indiana | B10 | ~ | 6-6 | 0.13 | 1.41 | 8 | 1.26 | 112 |
55 | 68 | Northwestern | B10 | ~ | 6-6 | 0.10 | 0.99 | 61 | 0.89 | 49 |
57 | 81 | Rutgers | B10 | ~ | 5-7 | 0.09 | 0.97 | 63 | 0.89 | 47 |
59 | 71 | Maryland | B10 | ~ | 5-7 | 0.06 | 0.93 | 75 | 0.87 | 42 |
70 | 61 | Minnesota | B10 | ~ | 5-7 | -0.07 | 0.80 | 100 | 0.86 | 40 |
74 | 77 | Illinois | B10 | ~ | 5-7 | -0.11 | 0.93 | 72 | 1.04 | 76 |
99 | 113 | Purdue | B10 | ~ | 3-9 | -0.34 | 0.78 | 104 | 1.09 | 88 |
If you're curious about those win projections, here's a Google Doc link that you can play around with.
Let's just cut right to the chase: why I am wrong? Especially on your team in particular. It's like I didn't even read about all the offseason work QUARTERBACK has been putting in! And what about the changes on the coaching staff?
While I regret that I failed to consider all of the offseason efforts of your team, let's soldier on anyway. Since I've got rankings and returning starter data (via Phil Steele) going back a few years, we can use the power of hindsight to see where I've gone astray previously. Since I'm lazy, we'll only do this for 2013. Since I don't care about a random Sun Belt team, we'll also limit it to BCS conferences only (no, the EFF COMMUNISM Conference doesn't count). First up, the under-rateds:
Team | Conf | Pre Rk | Final | Diff | Ret Off | Ret Def | Ret QB | 2012 rk | 2011 rk | 2010 rk | 2009 rk | 2008 rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WashingtonState | Pac-12 | 107 | 49 | 58 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 105 | 79 | 93 | 117 | 118 |
Auburn | SEC | 57 | 5 | 52 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 79 | 56 | 7 | 36 | 72 |
Duke | ACC | 82 | 31 | 51 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 70 | 93 | 95 | 86 | 69 |
Baylor | B12 | 39 | 3 | 36 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 28 | 21 | 45 | 74 | 55 |
UCLA | Pac-12 | 48 | 15 | 33 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 35 | 74 | 77 | 54 | 87 |
Tempting to see Gus Malzahn's turnaround at Auburn and just chalk everything up to new coaches, but I don't think that's all it is. Art Briles and David Cutliffe have been at their jobs (Baylor and Duke) for a couple years now, and the next couple names on this list (not posted here) have Steve Sarkasian (Washington), Gary Pinkel (Missouri), and our beloved punt-master Kirk Ferentz. As with most things in reality, it's probably a number of contributing factors. And the over-rateds:
Team | Conf | Pre Rk | Final | Diff | Ret Off | Ret Def | Ret QB | 2012 rk | 2011 rk | 2010 rk | 2009 rk | 2008 kr |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida | SEC | 6 | 59 | -53 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 24 | 2 | 2 |
TCU | B12 | 9 | 57 | -48 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 30 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
Texas | B12 | 4 | 44 | -40 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 21 | 25 | 57 | 3 | 5 |
Northwestern | B10 | 29 | 68 | -39 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 26 | 59 | 69 | 68 | 36 |
OregonState | Pac-12 | 16 | 53 | -37 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 89 | 31 | 29 | 17 |
This seems to have a clearer message: injuries are a bitch. But given that Arkansas is #6 on this list, I'm just going to go with #karma.
ROAD TO UN-GLORY - Quest for the Crusty Football. I'm still deciding whether that's too gross to put in here, but one of my favorite parts of each football season is admiring the bad-ness of the worst major college teams. Florida State winning a national title with a Heisman trophy winner? BORING. Purdue failing to run a red-zone play for five weeks? That's where the true legends are made.
As indicated, our lovely Boilermakers came home with the trophy last year, ending at #113 in my rankings of nebulous value. Other previous winners include:
2012 - #121 Colorado (1-11)
2011 - #107 Indiana (1-11)
2010 - #105 Kansas (3-9)
2009 - #117 Wazzu (1-11)
The season hasn't started yet, but we can make some educated guesses on who will take up the mantle of bad passes, missed tackles, and fumbling. As well as the odds on that white whale of football futility - the perfect season. A task so difficult, even Colorado couldn't manage it.
Again, this is major conference teams only, so apologies to Tulane.
#100 - Kansas (2-10 proj rec, 1% chance of perfection)
#99 - Purdue (3-9, 0%)
#86 - Colorado (3-9, 0%)
#76 - Kentucky (4-8, 0%)
#75 - California (3-9, 0%)
It may be apparent that the odds on perfection are long. That's to be expected, even the "best" odds on that are only 24% (Massachusetts, if you're wondering). IRREGARDLESS: I remain hopeful. DON'T FVCK IT UP, WESTERN MICHIGAN.
THE PICKINGS
Lines taken from 5Dimes here as of 2014-08-23. Home teams in blue.
Date | Overcat | Underdog | Proj Winner | W Lk | Line | Hoegh | Pick vs Spd |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 28 | SouthCarolina | TexasAM | SouthCarolina | 72% | 10.5 | 7.5 | TexasAM |
Aug 28 | WakeForest | LouisianaMonroe | LouisianaMonroe | 59% | 2.5 | -2.7 | LouisianaMonroe |
Aug 28 | Tulsa | Tulane | Tulsa | 68% | 4.5 | 5.9 | Tulsa |
Aug 28 | Mississippi | BoiseState | BoiseState | 71% | 10.0 | -6.9 | BoiseState |
Aug 28 | Vanderbilt | Temple | Vanderbilt | 75% | 14.0 | 8.5 | Temple |
Aug 28 | WashingtonState | Rutgers | WashingtonState | 57% | 8.0 | 2.2 | Rutgers |
Aug 29 | BYU | Connecticut | BYU | 93% | 16.5 | 18.6 | BYU |
Aug 29 | BowlingGreen | WesternKentucky | BowlingGreen | 69% | 8.0 | 6.3 | WesternKentucky |
Aug 29 | Houston | UTSA | Houston | 92% | 11.0 | 18.1 | Houston |
Aug 29 | Colorado | ColoradoState | Colorado | 57% | 3.0 | 2.3 | ColoradoState |
Aug 29 | Arizona | UNLV | Arizona | 99% | 23.5 | 27.2 | Arizona |
Aug 30 | CentralFlorida | PennState | CentralFlorida | 69% | 1.0 | 6.2 | CentralFlorida |
Aug 30 | UCLA | Virginia | UCLA | 89% | 21.5 | 15.9 | Virginia |
Aug 30 | Purdue | WesternMichigan | Purdue | 81% | 11.5 | 11.2 | WesternMichigan |
Aug 30 | OhioState | Navy | OhioState | 81% | 13.5 | 11.6 | Navy |
Aug 30 | Troy | UAB | Troy | 70% | 1.0 | 6.8 | Troy |
Aug 30 | Michigan | AppalachianState | Michigan | 99% | 34.0 | 39.4 | Michigan |
Aug 30 | NorthCarolinaState | GeorgiaSouthern | NorthCarolinaState | 98% | 22.5 | 26.1 | NorthCarolinaState |
Aug 30 | BostonCollege | Massachusetts | BostonCollege | 94% | 14.5 | 20.2 | BostonCollege |
Aug 30 | NotreDame | Rice | NotreDame | 96% | 21.0 | 22.2 | NotreDame |
Aug 30 | Northwestern | California | Northwestern | 80% | 11.0 | 10.9 | California |
Aug 30 | Nebraska | FloridaAtlantic | Nebraska | 93% | 23.0 | 19.2 | FloridaAtlantic |
Aug 30 | Alabama | WestVirginia | Alabama | 99% | 25.5 | 27.6 | Alabama |
Aug 30 | Marshall | MiamiOH | Marshall | 98% | 24.0 | 25.0 | Marshall |
Aug 30 | Auburn | Arkansas | Auburn | 93% | 20.5 | 19.0 | Arkansas |
Aug 30 | Georgia | Clemson | Georgia | 59% | 7.5 | 2.6 | Clemson |
Aug 30 | KentState | Ohio | KentState | 71% | 3.0 | 7.3 | KentState |
Aug 30 | Oklahoma | LouisianaTech | Oklahoma | 99% | 37.5 | 33.2 | LouisianaTech |
Aug 30 | Florida | Idaho | Florida | 99% | 34.5 | 31.8 | Idaho |
Aug 30 | MississippiState | SouthernMississippi | MississippiState | 99% | 30.5 | 33.6 | MississippiState |
Aug 30 | USC | FresnoState | USC | 93% | 21.0 | 18.7 | FresnoState |
Aug 30 | NewMexico | UTEP | NewMexico | 63% | 7.5 | 4.1 | UTEP |
Aug 30 | FloridaState | OklahomaState | FloridaState | 91% | 17.5 | 17.5 | FloridaState |
Aug 30 | Texas | NorthTexas | Texas | 94% | 24.0 | 20.2 | NorthTexas |
Aug 30 | LSU | Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 51% | 4.0 | -0.4 | Wisconsin |
Aug 30 | Washington | Hawaii | Washington | 96% | 15.5 | 22.4 | Washington |
Aug 31 | Tennessee | UtahState | Tennessee | 58% | 6.5 | 2.6 | UtahState |
Aug 31 | Baylor | SMU | Baylor | 99% | 32.5 | 30.0 | SMU |
Sep 01 | Louisville | Miami | Louisville | 68% | 3.5 | 5.9 | Louisville |
And the Big Ten in particular...
Date | Overcat | Underdog | Proj Winner | W Lk | Line | Hoegh | Pick vs Spd |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug 30 | Michigan | AppalachianState | Michigan | 99% | 34.0 | 39.4 | Michigan |
Aug 30 | Nebraska | FloridaAtlantic | Nebraska | 93% | 23.0 | 19.2 | FloridaAtlantic |
Aug 30 | Northwestern | California | Northwestern | 80% | 11.0 | 10.9 | California |
Aug 30 | OhioState | Navy | OhioState | 81% | 13.5 | 11.6 | Navy |
Aug 30 | CentralFlorida | PennState | CentralFlorida | 69% | 1.0 | 6.2 | CentralFlorida |
Aug 30 | Purdue | WesternMichigan | Purdue | 81% | 11.5 | 11.2 | WesternMichigan |
Aug 28 | WashingtonState | Rutgers | WashingtonState | 57% | 8.0 | 2.2 | Rutgers |
Aug 30 | LSU | Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 51% | 4.0 | -0.4 | Wisconsin |
Talk Big Ten football with Off Tackle Empire