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Hoegher's 2014 Rankings: WEEK TWO

In an effort to stay positive, I'll say that there are worst ways to start off the season than a four point loss to a Top 15 opponent. We will ignore the exact route that loss took, however.

Scores and stats gather from the resources at Sports-Reference and CFBStats.

THE RANKINGS

rk LW NCAA Team Conf Record Prj Rec Rating Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
1 1 FloridaState ACC 1-0 12-0 1.05 1.65 2 0.58 4
2 2 Alabama SEC 1-0 11-1 0.95 1.39 9 0.51 1
3 3 Oregon Pac-12 1-0 11-1 0.86 1.67 1 0.76 21
4 4 Stanford Pac-12 1-0 9-3 0.77 1.23 25 0.53 2
5 10 Baylor B12 1-0 10-2 0.72 1.64 4 0.86 41
6 6 Auburn SEC 1-0 9-3 0.70 1.53 5 0.80 28
7 5 Oklahoma B12 1-0 10-2 0.70 1.32 12 0.65 8
8 7 OhioState B10 1-0 10-2 0.69 1.36 10 0.69 12
9 14 Georgia SEC 1-0 10-2 0.67 1.46 6 0.77 26
10 15 USC Pac-12 1-0 9-3 0.65 1.25 20 0.64 6
11 20 TexasAM SEC 1-0 9-3 0.62 1.64 3 0.96 64
12 12 LSU SEC 1-0 9-3 0.61 1.25 21 0.67 10
13 8 UCLA Pac-12 1-0 8-4 0.60 1.35 11 0.75 20
14 11 Wisconsin B10 0-1 10-2 0.59 1.32 14 0.74 19
15 22 MississippiState SEC 1-0 9-3 0.58 1.08 50 0.57 3
16 18 OklahomaState B12 0-1 8-4 0.57 1.42 8 0.84 37
17 17 MichiganState B10 1-0 9-3 0.54 1.08 51 0.61 5
18 9 SouthCarolina SEC 0-1 8-4 0.52 1.26 17 0.76 23
19 23 BYU Ind. 1-0 10-2 0.50 1.19 29 0.72 14
20 13 Clemson ACC 0-1 8-4 0.47 1.26 16 0.80 29
21 32 Texas B12 1-0 8-4 0.47 1.11 45 0.68 11
22 28 NotreDame Ind. 1-0 7-5 0.46 1.20 28 0.77 25
23 36 Mississippi SEC 1-0 8-4 0.45 1.14 36 0.72 15
24 33 Arizona Pac-12 1-0 8-4 0.45 1.24 22 0.81 30
25 21 ArizonaState Pac-12 1-0 8-4 0.44 1.44 7 0.97 67

And the Big Ten in particular...

rk LW NCAA Team Conf Record Prj Rec Rating Adj Off rk Adj Def rk
8 7 OhioState B10 1-0 10-2 0.69 1.36 10 0.69 12
14 11 Wisconsin B10 0-1 10-2 0.59 1.32 14 0.74 19
17 17 MichiganState B10 1-0 9-3 0.54 1.08 51 0.61 5
26 26 Michigan B10 1-0 8-4 0.43 1.24 23 0.81 32
30 46 Nebraska B10 1-0 9-3 0.39 1.22 26 0.84 38
42 45 PennState B10 1-0 8-4 0.28 0.99 60 0.74 18
50 59 Maryland B10 1-0 6-6 0.16 0.97 63 0.82 33
51 38 Iowa B10 1-0 7-5 0.16 0.98 61 0.84 36
53 50 Indiana B10 1-0 6-6 0.12 1.31 15 1.18 107
54 57 Rutgers B10 1-0 5-7 0.10 1.02 57 0.93 53
60 55 Northwestern B10 0-1 5-7 0.05 0.95 65 0.91 49
73 70 Minnesota B10 1-0 5-7 -0.10 0.82 97 0.91 50
78 74 Illinois B10 1-0 4-8 -0.15 0.90 75 1.04 77
101 99 Purdue B10 1-0 4-8 -0.34 0.81 100 1.13 96

If you're curious about those win projections, here's a Google Doc link that you can play around with.

It's Week One, obviously still a lot of season to go. Not only do the large slate of cannon fodder games make any sort of meaningful analysis difficult, I'm writing this at a time when two Week One games (Florida vs Idaho, Miami vs Louisville) have yet to take place. So we're still putting some heavy emphasis on our pre-season guesses projections.

THAT SAID, this is the internet and unsupported speculation is our duty. I don't accept any responsibility in the likely even that I am wrong:

TENNESSEE IS TOTALLY "BACK" Y'ALL - I was pretty excited to watch Chuckie Keeton take on Tennessee last night. Of course, since it was on the SEC Network, I had to scrap those plans, but it sounds like it wasn't much of a game anyway. Utah State has been pretty good in recent years and Tennessee not so much, so I figured it'd be a good game. A 31 pt margin put that to rest.

CHRIS PETERSEN CAN'T SUCCEED AT WASHINGTON - Unless Hawaii has some sort of wildly successful season, a 1 pt win against a team that went 1-11 last year does not inspire confidence. To his credit, all new coaches suffer some growing pains and the next couple games should offer plenty of chances to work out any kinks (Eastern Washington, Illinois, Georgia State).

GEORGIA IS THE TITLE FAVORITE - Mark Richt has lost control of losing control of the Georgia locker room. This has nothing to do with me picking Mark Richt as the next coach to win a national title (that hasn't yet).

Mid-major watchlist - GO COUGARS. BYU barely counts for this, but still a better choice than Marshall, who is (a) okay, but nothing special and (b) plays an atrocious schedule and still "struggled" with Miami (the other one). They play Texas next week, keep them in your rooting interests.

Weekly Worst Watch Purdue dashed my hopes of a perfect season, but others still keep the dream alive. The rundown of the BCS Bad Bunch (working title):

#109 Wake Forest (3-9 proj rec, 1% chance of perfection)

#102 Kansas (2-10, 1%)

#101 Purdue (4-8, ~)

#91 Colorado (2-10, 1%)

#89 Iowa State (2-10, 12%)

GO CYCLONES LOSE LOSE LOSE.

THE PICKINGS

Pickings will be updated after the lines come out tomorrow. EDIT: Updated.

Lines taken from 5Dimes as of 2014-09-02 here. Home teams highlighted in blue.

Date Overcat Underdog Proj Winner W Lk Line Hoegh Pick vs Spd
Sep 04 Arizona UTSA Arizona 75% 7.0 8.6 Arizona
Sep 05 Pittsburgh BostonCollege Pittsburgh 82% 4.5 12.1 Pittsburgh
Sep 05 WashingtonState Nevada Nevada 57% 3.0 -2.1 Nevada
Sep 06 Tennessee ArkansasState Tennessee 86% 17.0 14.2 ArkansasState
Sep 06 Army Buffalo Army 52% 3.0 0.7 Buffalo
Sep 06 Alabama FloridaAtlantic Alabama 99% 40.5 44.8 Alabama
Sep 06 Missouri Toledo Missouri 69% 6.5 6.1 Toledo
Sep 06 Illinois WesternKentucky WesternKentucky 53% 6.0 -0.8 WesternKentucky
Sep 06 Purdue CentralMichigan CentralMichigan 50% 3.0 -0.1 CentralMichigan
Sep 06 Oklahoma Tulsa Oklahoma 97% 24.0 23.2 Tulsa
Sep 06 NorthTexas SMU NorthTexas 66% 3.5 5.4 NorthTexas
Sep 06 KansasState IowaState KansasState 85% 12.0 13.6 KansasState
Sep 06 PennState Akron PennState 97% 15.0 23.1 PennState
Sep 06 Navy Temple Navy 66% 3.5 5.3 Navy
Sep 06 SouthAlabama KentState KentState 66% 3.0 -5.1 KentState
Sep 06 MississippiState UAB MississippiState 99% 28.0 34.8 MississippiState
Sep 06 GeorgiaState NewMexicoState NewMexicoState 63% 2.0 -4.2 NewMexicoState
Sep 06 Colorado Massachusetts Colorado 93% 17.0 19.1 Colorado
Sep 06 Utah FresnoState Utah 87% 10.5 14.8 Utah
Sep 06 Stanford USC Stanford 70% 3.0 6.7 Stanford
Sep 06 Kentucky Ohio Kentucky 84% 10.0 12.8 Kentucky
Sep 06 Northwestern NorthernIllinois NorthernIllinois 52% 5.0 -0.7 NorthernIllinois
Sep 06 Iowa BallState Iowa 87% 17.0 14.8 BallState
Sep 06 Maryland SouthFlorida Maryland 81% 12.5 11.3 SouthFlorida
Sep 06 Minnesota MiddleTennessee Minnesota 70% 17.0 6.5 MiddleTennessee
Sep 06 Florida EasternMichigan Florida 99% 37.5 40.8 Florida
Sep 06 GeorgiaTech Tulane GeorgiaTech 79% 10.0 10.5 GeorgiaTech
Sep 06 Mississippi Vanderbilt Mississippi 89% 20.0 15.9 Vanderbilt
Sep 06 NorthCarolinaState OldDominion NorthCarolinaState 97% 16.0 23.8 NorthCarolinaState
Sep 06 Oregon MichiganState Oregon 83% 13.5 12.4 MichiganState
Sep 06 SouthCarolina EastCarolina SouthCarolina 91% 16.5 17.2 SouthCarolina
Sep 06 LouisianaLafayette LouisianaTech LouisianaLafayette 88% 12.5 15.3 LouisianaLafayette
Sep 06 LouisianaMonroe Idaho LouisianaMonroe 82% 14.5 12.1 Idaho
Sep 06 Duke Troy Duke 90% 19.0 16.8 Troy
Sep 06 Auburn SanJoseState Auburn 99% 31.0 27.7 SanJoseState
Sep 06 ArizonaState NewMexico ArizonaState 99% 25.0 27.9 ArizonaState
Sep 06 Texas BYU Texas 57% 3.5 2.1 BYU
Sep 06 NotreDame Michigan NotreDame 62% 4.5 3.8 Michigan
Sep 06 NorthCarolina SanDiegoState NorthCarolina 89% 15.0 15.9 NorthCarolina
Sep 06 OhioState VirginiaTech OhioState 86% 10.5 14.2 OhioState
Sep 06 UCLA Memphis UCLA 95% 23.5 20.7 Memphis
Sep 06 Wyoming AirForce AirForce 55% 0.0 -1.4 AirForce
Sep 06 BoiseState ColoradoState BoiseState 96% 11.5 21.8 BoiseState
Sep 06 OregonState Hawaii OregonState 82% 11.5 12.2 OregonState
Sep 06 TexasTech UTEP TexasTech 90% 19.0 16.3 UTEP

And the Big Ten in particular...

Date Overcat Underdog Proj Winner W Lk Line Hoegh Pick vs Spd
Sep 06 Illinois WesternKentucky WesternKentucky 53% 6.0 -0.8 WesternKentucky
Sep 06 Iowa BallState Iowa 87% 17.0 14.8 BallState
Sep 06 Maryland SouthFlorida Maryland 81% 12.5 11.3 SouthFlorida
Sep 06 NotreDame Michigan NotreDame 62% 4.5 3.8 Michigan
Sep 06 Oregon MichiganState Oregon 83% 13.5 12.4 MichiganState
Sep 06 Minnesota MiddleTennessee Minnesota 70% 17.0 6.5 MiddleTennessee
Sep 06 Northwestern NorthernIllinois NorthernIllinois 52% 5.0 -0.7 NorthernIllinois
Sep 06 OhioState VirginiaTech OhioState 86% 10.5 14.2 OhioState
Sep 06 PennState Akron PennState 97% 15.0 23.1 PennState
Sep 06 Purdue CentralMichigan CentralMichigan 50% 3.0 -0.1 CentralMichigan

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