In an effort to stay positive, I'll say that there are worst ways to start off the season than a four point loss to a Top 15 opponent. We will ignore the exact route that loss took, however.
Scores and stats gather from the resources at Sports-Reference and CFBStats.
THE RANKINGS
rk | LW | NCAA Team | Conf | Record | Prj Rec | Rating | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 1 | FloridaState | ACC | 1-0 | 12-0 | 1.05 | 1.65 | 2 | 0.58 | 4 |
2 | 2 | Alabama | SEC | 1-0 | 11-1 | 0.95 | 1.39 | 9 | 0.51 | 1 |
3 | 3 | Oregon | Pac-12 | 1-0 | 11-1 | 0.86 | 1.67 | 1 | 0.76 | 21 |
4 | 4 | Stanford | Pac-12 | 1-0 | 9-3 | 0.77 | 1.23 | 25 | 0.53 | 2 |
5 | 10 | Baylor | B12 | 1-0 | 10-2 | 0.72 | 1.64 | 4 | 0.86 | 41 |
6 | 6 | Auburn | SEC | 1-0 | 9-3 | 0.70 | 1.53 | 5 | 0.80 | 28 |
7 | 5 | Oklahoma | B12 | 1-0 | 10-2 | 0.70 | 1.32 | 12 | 0.65 | 8 |
8 | 7 | OhioState | B10 | 1-0 | 10-2 | 0.69 | 1.36 | 10 | 0.69 | 12 |
9 | 14 | Georgia | SEC | 1-0 | 10-2 | 0.67 | 1.46 | 6 | 0.77 | 26 |
10 | 15 | USC | Pac-12 | 1-0 | 9-3 | 0.65 | 1.25 | 20 | 0.64 | 6 |
11 | 20 | TexasAM | SEC | 1-0 | 9-3 | 0.62 | 1.64 | 3 | 0.96 | 64 |
12 | 12 | LSU | SEC | 1-0 | 9-3 | 0.61 | 1.25 | 21 | 0.67 | 10 |
13 | 8 | UCLA | Pac-12 | 1-0 | 8-4 | 0.60 | 1.35 | 11 | 0.75 | 20 |
14 | 11 | Wisconsin | B10 | 0-1 | 10-2 | 0.59 | 1.32 | 14 | 0.74 | 19 |
15 | 22 | MississippiState | SEC | 1-0 | 9-3 | 0.58 | 1.08 | 50 | 0.57 | 3 |
16 | 18 | OklahomaState | B12 | 0-1 | 8-4 | 0.57 | 1.42 | 8 | 0.84 | 37 |
17 | 17 | MichiganState | B10 | 1-0 | 9-3 | 0.54 | 1.08 | 51 | 0.61 | 5 |
18 | 9 | SouthCarolina | SEC | 0-1 | 8-4 | 0.52 | 1.26 | 17 | 0.76 | 23 |
19 | 23 | BYU | Ind. | 1-0 | 10-2 | 0.50 | 1.19 | 29 | 0.72 | 14 |
20 | 13 | Clemson | ACC | 0-1 | 8-4 | 0.47 | 1.26 | 16 | 0.80 | 29 |
21 | 32 | Texas | B12 | 1-0 | 8-4 | 0.47 | 1.11 | 45 | 0.68 | 11 |
22 | 28 | NotreDame | Ind. | 1-0 | 7-5 | 0.46 | 1.20 | 28 | 0.77 | 25 |
23 | 36 | Mississippi | SEC | 1-0 | 8-4 | 0.45 | 1.14 | 36 | 0.72 | 15 |
24 | 33 | Arizona | Pac-12 | 1-0 | 8-4 | 0.45 | 1.24 | 22 | 0.81 | 30 |
25 | 21 | ArizonaState | Pac-12 | 1-0 | 8-4 | 0.44 | 1.44 | 7 | 0.97 | 67 |
And the Big Ten in particular...
rk | LW | NCAA Team | Conf | Record | Prj Rec | Rating | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8 | 7 | OhioState | B10 | 1-0 | 10-2 | 0.69 | 1.36 | 10 | 0.69 | 12 |
14 | 11 | Wisconsin | B10 | 0-1 | 10-2 | 0.59 | 1.32 | 14 | 0.74 | 19 |
17 | 17 | MichiganState | B10 | 1-0 | 9-3 | 0.54 | 1.08 | 51 | 0.61 | 5 |
26 | 26 | Michigan | B10 | 1-0 | 8-4 | 0.43 | 1.24 | 23 | 0.81 | 32 |
30 | 46 | Nebraska | B10 | 1-0 | 9-3 | 0.39 | 1.22 | 26 | 0.84 | 38 |
42 | 45 | PennState | B10 | 1-0 | 8-4 | 0.28 | 0.99 | 60 | 0.74 | 18 |
50 | 59 | Maryland | B10 | 1-0 | 6-6 | 0.16 | 0.97 | 63 | 0.82 | 33 |
51 | 38 | Iowa | B10 | 1-0 | 7-5 | 0.16 | 0.98 | 61 | 0.84 | 36 |
53 | 50 | Indiana | B10 | 1-0 | 6-6 | 0.12 | 1.31 | 15 | 1.18 | 107 |
54 | 57 | Rutgers | B10 | 1-0 | 5-7 | 0.10 | 1.02 | 57 | 0.93 | 53 |
60 | 55 | Northwestern | B10 | 0-1 | 5-7 | 0.05 | 0.95 | 65 | 0.91 | 49 |
73 | 70 | Minnesota | B10 | 1-0 | 5-7 | -0.10 | 0.82 | 97 | 0.91 | 50 |
78 | 74 | Illinois | B10 | 1-0 | 4-8 | -0.15 | 0.90 | 75 | 1.04 | 77 |
101 | 99 | Purdue | B10 | 1-0 | 4-8 | -0.34 | 0.81 | 100 | 1.13 | 96 |
If you're curious about those win projections, here's a Google Doc link that you can play around with.
It's Week One, obviously still a lot of season to go. Not only do the large slate of cannon fodder games make any sort of meaningful analysis difficult, I'm writing this at a time when two Week One games (Florida vs Idaho, Miami vs Louisville) have yet to take place. So we're still putting some heavy emphasis on our pre-season guesses projections.
THAT SAID, this is the internet and unsupported speculation is our duty. I don't accept any responsibility in the likely even that I am wrong:
TENNESSEE IS TOTALLY "BACK" Y'ALL - I was pretty excited to watch Chuckie Keeton take on Tennessee last night. Of course, since it was on the SEC Network, I had to scrap those plans, but it sounds like it wasn't much of a game anyway. Utah State has been pretty good in recent years and Tennessee not so much, so I figured it'd be a good game. A 31 pt margin put that to rest.
CHRIS PETERSEN CAN'T SUCCEED AT WASHINGTON - Unless Hawaii has some sort of wildly successful season, a 1 pt win against a team that went 1-11 last year does not inspire confidence. To his credit, all new coaches suffer some growing pains and the next couple games should offer plenty of chances to work out any kinks (Eastern Washington, Illinois, Georgia State).
GEORGIA IS THE TITLE FAVORITE - Mark Richt has lost control of losing control of the Georgia locker room. This has nothing to do with me picking Mark Richt as the next coach to win a national title (that hasn't yet).
Mid-major watchlist - GO COUGARS. BYU barely counts for this, but still a better choice than Marshall, who is (a) okay, but nothing special and (b) plays an atrocious schedule and still "struggled" with Miami (the other one). They play Texas next week, keep them in your rooting interests.
Weekly Worst Watch Purdue dashed my hopes of a perfect season, but others still keep the dream alive. The rundown of the BCS Bad Bunch (working title):
#109 Wake Forest (3-9 proj rec, 1% chance of perfection)
#102 Kansas (2-10, 1%)
#101 Purdue (4-8, ~)
#91 Colorado (2-10, 1%)
#89 Iowa State (2-10, 12%)
GO CYCLONES LOSE LOSE LOSE.
THE PICKINGS
Pickings will be updated after the lines come out tomorrow. EDIT: Updated.
Lines taken from 5Dimes as of 2014-09-02 here. Home teams highlighted in blue.
Date | Overcat | Underdog | Proj Winner | W Lk | Line | Hoegh | Pick vs Spd |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 04 | Arizona | UTSA | Arizona | 75% | 7.0 | 8.6 | Arizona |
Sep 05 | Pittsburgh | BostonCollege | Pittsburgh | 82% | 4.5 | 12.1 | Pittsburgh |
Sep 05 | WashingtonState | Nevada | Nevada | 57% | 3.0 | -2.1 | Nevada |
Sep 06 | Tennessee | ArkansasState | Tennessee | 86% | 17.0 | 14.2 | ArkansasState |
Sep 06 | Army | Buffalo | Army | 52% | 3.0 | 0.7 | Buffalo |
Sep 06 | Alabama | FloridaAtlantic | Alabama | 99% | 40.5 | 44.8 | Alabama |
Sep 06 | Missouri | Toledo | Missouri | 69% | 6.5 | 6.1 | Toledo |
Sep 06 | Illinois | WesternKentucky | WesternKentucky | 53% | 6.0 | -0.8 | WesternKentucky |
Sep 06 | Purdue | CentralMichigan | CentralMichigan | 50% | 3.0 | -0.1 | CentralMichigan |
Sep 06 | Oklahoma | Tulsa | Oklahoma | 97% | 24.0 | 23.2 | Tulsa |
Sep 06 | NorthTexas | SMU | NorthTexas | 66% | 3.5 | 5.4 | NorthTexas |
Sep 06 | KansasState | IowaState | KansasState | 85% | 12.0 | 13.6 | KansasState |
Sep 06 | PennState | Akron | PennState | 97% | 15.0 | 23.1 | PennState |
Sep 06 | Navy | Temple | Navy | 66% | 3.5 | 5.3 | Navy |
Sep 06 | SouthAlabama | KentState | KentState | 66% | 3.0 | -5.1 | KentState |
Sep 06 | MississippiState | UAB | MississippiState | 99% | 28.0 | 34.8 | MississippiState |
Sep 06 | GeorgiaState | NewMexicoState | NewMexicoState | 63% | 2.0 | -4.2 | NewMexicoState |
Sep 06 | Colorado | Massachusetts | Colorado | 93% | 17.0 | 19.1 | Colorado |
Sep 06 | Utah | FresnoState | Utah | 87% | 10.5 | 14.8 | Utah |
Sep 06 | Stanford | USC | Stanford | 70% | 3.0 | 6.7 | Stanford |
Sep 06 | Kentucky | Ohio | Kentucky | 84% | 10.0 | 12.8 | Kentucky |
Sep 06 | Northwestern | NorthernIllinois | NorthernIllinois | 52% | 5.0 | -0.7 | NorthernIllinois |
Sep 06 | Iowa | BallState | Iowa | 87% | 17.0 | 14.8 | BallState |
Sep 06 | Maryland | SouthFlorida | Maryland | 81% | 12.5 | 11.3 | SouthFlorida |
Sep 06 | Minnesota | MiddleTennessee | Minnesota | 70% | 17.0 | 6.5 | MiddleTennessee |
Sep 06 | Florida | EasternMichigan | Florida | 99% | 37.5 | 40.8 | Florida |
Sep 06 | GeorgiaTech | Tulane | GeorgiaTech | 79% | 10.0 | 10.5 | GeorgiaTech |
Sep 06 | Mississippi | Vanderbilt | Mississippi | 89% | 20.0 | 15.9 | Vanderbilt |
Sep 06 | NorthCarolinaState | OldDominion | NorthCarolinaState | 97% | 16.0 | 23.8 | NorthCarolinaState |
Sep 06 | Oregon | MichiganState | Oregon | 83% | 13.5 | 12.4 | MichiganState |
Sep 06 | SouthCarolina | EastCarolina | SouthCarolina | 91% | 16.5 | 17.2 | SouthCarolina |
Sep 06 | LouisianaLafayette | LouisianaTech | LouisianaLafayette | 88% | 12.5 | 15.3 | LouisianaLafayette |
Sep 06 | LouisianaMonroe | Idaho | LouisianaMonroe | 82% | 14.5 | 12.1 | Idaho |
Sep 06 | Duke | Troy | Duke | 90% | 19.0 | 16.8 | Troy |
Sep 06 | Auburn | SanJoseState | Auburn | 99% | 31.0 | 27.7 | SanJoseState |
Sep 06 | ArizonaState | NewMexico | ArizonaState | 99% | 25.0 | 27.9 | ArizonaState |
Sep 06 | Texas | BYU | Texas | 57% | 3.5 | 2.1 | BYU |
Sep 06 | NotreDame | Michigan | NotreDame | 62% | 4.5 | 3.8 | Michigan |
Sep 06 | NorthCarolina | SanDiegoState | NorthCarolina | 89% | 15.0 | 15.9 | NorthCarolina |
Sep 06 | OhioState | VirginiaTech | OhioState | 86% | 10.5 | 14.2 | OhioState |
Sep 06 | UCLA | Memphis | UCLA | 95% | 23.5 | 20.7 | Memphis |
Sep 06 | Wyoming | AirForce | AirForce | 55% | 0.0 | -1.4 | AirForce |
Sep 06 | BoiseState | ColoradoState | BoiseState | 96% | 11.5 | 21.8 | BoiseState |
Sep 06 | OregonState | Hawaii | OregonState | 82% | 11.5 | 12.2 | OregonState |
Sep 06 | TexasTech | UTEP | TexasTech | 90% | 19.0 | 16.3 | UTEP |
And the Big Ten in particular...
Date | Overcat | Underdog | Proj Winner | W Lk | Line | Hoegh | Pick vs Spd |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sep 06 | Illinois | WesternKentucky | WesternKentucky | 53% | 6.0 | -0.8 | WesternKentucky |
Sep 06 | Iowa | BallState | Iowa | 87% | 17.0 | 14.8 | BallState |
Sep 06 | Maryland | SouthFlorida | Maryland | 81% | 12.5 | 11.3 | SouthFlorida |
Sep 06 | NotreDame | Michigan | NotreDame | 62% | 4.5 | 3.8 | Michigan |
Sep 06 | Oregon | MichiganState | Oregon | 83% | 13.5 | 12.4 | MichiganState |
Sep 06 | Minnesota | MiddleTennessee | Minnesota | 70% | 17.0 | 6.5 | MiddleTennessee |
Sep 06 | Northwestern | NorthernIllinois | NorthernIllinois | 52% | 5.0 | -0.7 | NorthernIllinois |
Sep 06 | OhioState | VirginiaTech | OhioState | 86% | 10.5 | 14.2 | OhioState |
Sep 06 | PennState | Akron | PennState | 97% | 15.0 | 23.1 | PennState |
Sep 06 | Purdue | CentralMichigan | CentralMichigan | 50% | 3.0 | -0.1 | CentralMichigan |
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