Uncertainty. Any time someone looks to the future, there is uncertainty. Each week that I make my bowl projections, there is the unknown of how teams will perform. When I have made these ridiculously early projections in the past, there has been uncertainty as to what players will and will not return to college. But this year adds a whole new level of uncertainty. Namely, where is West Virginia going to be playing in 2012?

I like the Mountaineers a lot for 2012 (and did before they hung 70 on Clemson), but their likelihood of getting to a BCS game is dependent upon where they're playing. In the Big East, West Virginia could run the table and find themselves in the title game. In the Big 12, they could lose three games. With the Big East winning the first legal skirmish (but it's hardly over), I'm presuming that they'll be kept in the Big East through at least the 2012 season.

In the Big Ten, this may be a huge year for Purdue and Illinois. Who? Hear me out about the Leaders Division. Wisconsin, even with the return of Montee Ball, looks to be down from last year. They won't be bad, but they won't be dominant. Ohio State is barred from the B1G Title Game. Penn State is still recovering with a first-time head coach and a mid-level team returning. When will there be a better time for one of those two programs to rise up and earn a berth in the B1G Championship Game? Seriously, 5-3 with the right tiebreaks might get you to the game.

In the Legends Division, we're looking at three key games: Michigan at Nebraska, Nebraska at Michigan State, and Michigan State at Michigan. Maybe Iowa can sneak in and cause some trouble, but I expect that those three teams will rise head and shoulders above the rest of the division. As for what happens, let's get to the projections.

But first, let's remember that there are rules:

1. The best teams don't always go to the best games. In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.
2. The order of BCS selection (and we're bringing the title game back to South Beach this season) is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Fiesta Bowl; 4) Sugar Bowl; 5) Orange Bowl.
3. Until a team is officially bowl banned, we assume that they can and will go. So, no Ohio State. And Miami, Oregon, North Carolina...you're in consideration until otherwise notified.
4. If a Big Ten or Pac-10 team qualifies for the BCS Championship Game, the Rose Bowl will NOT be required to take a non-automatic qualifier. This was only required of the Rose Bowl the first time (2010 season) it occurred over the current four-year contract.
5. The Gator Bowl is supposed to be selecting ahead of the Insight Bowl in 2012. However, I have seen reports indicating that the Insight agreed to pass on Ohio State in 2011 in return for the earlier selection in 2012 and 2013. I'm picking as if that is the case.

Got it? Good. Let's get on to the projections.

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I do not expect the B1G to impress this bowl season. Too little offense, conference-wide, and too many mediocre teams in that squishy middle.

/awkward silence

However, let us pray deeply for at least five wins, which is doable. A little toughness here, a little realized potential there, a couple struggling opponents...And we pull a nationally respectable 6-4 record out there, helping the B1G in 2012 BCS polls and recruiting.

Check out these matchups though:

Games The B1G SHOULD Win:

Purdue over WMU

OSU over Florida

Michigan over VT

Purdue plays tougher than anyone's expected, even though Vegas gives them no credit. The lack of Boilermaker weapons gives people pause, but...Beat the MAC. OSU has a suddenly functioning offense with a hit or miss defense, which favors them over the barely awake Florida offense. Michigan is explosive and reaping the fruits of a veteran class and a (probably) favorable matchup.

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As we head toward the last weekend of the regular season, we have a little more clarity on the bowls than we normally do. Nothing has been made official, but it seems like much has been decided.

• First, there are definite tiers in the B1G pecking order. Wisconsin, Michigan State, Michigan, and Nebraska are the first tier. Penn State, Ohio State, and Iowa are the second tier. Purdue, Illinois and Northwestern are the third tier. I would be stunned to see a team jump over a team from a higher tier.
• Obviously, the winner in Indianapolis will go to Pasadena and face Oregon or UCL...Oregon. They're facing Oregon. While not fair, expect to see the loser fall to the 4th selection in the league. Revitalized Michigan and Newbie Nebraska will both be chosen before the Badgers or Spartans. Most likely, that will be the loser to the Outback Bowl. It could be the Insight Bowl.
• Michigan is a lock for a BCS Bowl, if it climbs those two spots from 16 to 14 in the BCS rankings. I think it happens, but with little margin to spare. If it is an all SEC final, Michigan will be the first selection and go to the Sugar Bowl (facing Houston, or Kansas State if Houston loses the C-USA championship). If it is LSU-Oklahoma State, Michigan will be selected by the Fiesta Bowl and will face Stanford. If Michigan doesn't climb those two spots, they'll be taken by the Capital One Bowl and will face Arkansas or South Carolina.
• Nebraska will likely head to the Capital One Bowl. This is about team fatigue. Wisconsin has been to Oranado frequently this decade. Michigan State was there last year and twice in the last three years. Nebraska is new, shiny, and full of fans who will flock to Orlando. I believe that the Huskers will be pushed down to the Outback if Michigan doesn't get the BCS berth, but that may not be a given.

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It's all about pecking orders at this point. Where does your team rate against its peers. Some teams get a bump because of name brands and history. Some teams are only chosen because they have to be. In the Big Ten, the order tends to work itself on merit most years. The new wrinkle this year will be the B1G Championship loser. 

It will be a very unusual year that will see the Championship Game loser get to the BCS. Look to the SEC and (old) Big 12 as a guide. You're in a better position finishing with 1 or 2 losses and being runner up in a division than losing the Title game. Whether it's Wisconsin or Michigan State, I expect that the loser will not go to the BCS. I also expect that they'll get passed over for the Capital One Bowl. Get used to seeing the Title Game loser in the Outback Bowl. This won't be the last time that happens.

As for the projections, let's remember that there are rules:

1. The best teams don't always go to the best games.  In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.
2. The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Fiesta Bowl; 4) Sugar Bowl; 5) Orange Bowl.
3. Until a team is officially bowl banned, we assume that they can and will go. So, no USC. And now, no Miami. Ohio State, Oregon, North Carolina...you're in consideration until otherwise notified.
4. If a Big Ten or Pac-10 team qualifies for the BCS Championship Game, the Rose Bowl will NOT be required to take a non-automatic qualifier.  This was only required of the Rose Bowl the first time (2010 season) it occurred over the current four-year contract. 
5. The Insight Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Gator Bowl this year.  It will rotate the other way next year.

 Got it?  Good.  Let's get on to the projections.

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Remember when people were doing their annual freak out because there were going to be too many undefeated teams? As it stands, I think we'll end up with two, but one of them is Houston. Boise's field goal kicking killed their undefeated dreams for a second straight year. Stanford couldn't withstand Oregon's second-half onslaught for a second straight year. And the power of the every-week playoff rolls on.

In the B1G, things have officially been turned up to 10. Barring an uprising by Indiana or Minnesota, the Big Ten will have ten bowl eligible teams for the first time ever. That's great, except the Big Ten only has seven post-BCS tie-ins. And, the Pac 12, ACC, and SEC look like they're having years in which they will fill all of their bowl slots. I hope that I'm wrong on this, but it's looking likely that someone eligible will be left out. The league hasn't faced that since 2007.

As for the projections, let's remember that there are rules:

1. The best teams don't always go to the best games.  In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.
2. The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Fiesta Bowl; 4) Sugar Bowl; 5) Orange Bowl.
3. Until a team is officially bowl banned, we assume that they can and will go. So, no USC. Ohio State, Oregon, North Carolina, <ahem> Miami...you're in consideration until otherwise notified.
4. If a Big Ten or Pac-10 team qualifies for the BCS Championship Game, the Rose Bowl will NOT be required to take a non-automatic qualifier.  This was only required of the Rose Bowl the first time (2010 season) it occurred over the current four-year contract. 
5. The Insight Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Gator Bowl this year.  It will rotate the other way next year.

 Got it?  Good.  Let's get on to the projections.

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This was supposed to be a breather week in the Big Ten. There weren't any great matchups. We were supposed to be waiting for the stretch run that starts next weekend with Penn State-Nebraska. But here's the thing about having teams that are good, but not great: they can lose games that they shouldn't. Nebraska did that. Michigan did that. Ohio State and Michigan State came really close to doing that. As it stands, the winner of Michigan State-Iowa will now control its destiny in the Legends Division. Nebraska and Michigan each need to win out and hope for a Sparty loss along the way (and Michigan will now need an Iowa loss too). The Leaders Division didn't see any real shake up, but will the mess in the Penn State athletic department have any impact on the preparation for these next three games? 

Currently, I see three B1G teams that could get an at large BCS bid. 

• 10-2 Wisconsin. The Badgers win out, but Penn State clinches the division after beating Nebraska and Ohio State.
• 10-2 Nebraska-Michigan winner. The winner of this game wins out, but Sparty wins the division.
• 11-2 Penn State. The Lions sweep the regular season, but fall in the B1G Championship Game.

Everybody else will need to win the league to get to a big time bowl, because a three-loss team isn't going to cut it this season. As for the actual projections, let's remember that there are rules:

1. The best teams don't always go to the best games.  In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.
2. The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Fiesta Bowl; 4) Sugar Bowl; 5) Orange Bowl.
3. Until a team is officially bowl banned, we assume that they can and will go. So, no USC. Ohio State, Oregon, North Carolina, <ahem> Miami...you're in consideration until otherwise notified.
4. If a Big Ten or Pac-10 team qualifies for the BCS Championship Game, the Rose Bowl will NOT be required to take a non-automatic qualifier.  This was only required of the Rose Bowl the first time (2010 season) it occurred over the current four-year contract. 
5. The Insight Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Gator Bowl this year.  It will rotate the other way next year.

 Got it?  Good.  Let's get on to the projections.

Continue reading this post »

I looked back through my bowl projections over the past few years. Generally by this point, it was pretty clear as to a general pecking order in the Big Ten. Sure, and upset or two may have messed with the order a touch. But for the most part, the league had a semblance of top-to-bottom. If you can find it this year, please chime in. Because the circles that we see now, make projecting what will happen ahead even more uncertain. 

Is it just home field? Wisconsin beats Nebraska. Michigan State beats Wisconsin. Nebraska beats Michigan State. Ohio State fits in there somewhere, too. Is it just home field? Are those four pretty even teams? I'm really not sure anymore. 

And what about Penn State? We're always attracted to the sizzle of an offense, but could their defense be good enough to ride to Indianapolis? Very quietly, something special could be happening in the Happy Valley. That two game division lead is nice. Of course, they have three very tough games left.

Nobody believes in Michigan, but they still sit at 7-1, with their toughest remaining games at home. Could they slip through?

And take Illinois, Iowa, and Purdue. Please.

As for the actual projections, let's remember that there are rules:

1. The best teams don't always go to the best games.  In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.
2. The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Fiesta Bowl; 4) Sugar Bowl; 5) Orange Bowl.
3. Until a team is officially bowl banned, we assume that they can and will go. So, no USC. Ohio State, Oregon, North Carolina, <ahem> Miami...you're in consideration until otherwise notified.
4. If a Big Ten or Pac-10 team qualifies for the BCS Championship Game, the Rose Bowl will NOT be required to take a non-automatic qualifier.  This was only required of the Rose Bowl the first time (2010 season) it occurred over the current four-year contract. 
5. The Insight Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Gator Bowl this year.  It will rotate the other way next year.

 Got it?  Good.  Let's get on to the projections.

Continue reading this post »

I got home last night just in time to see Kirk Cousins complete his last two passes against the Badgers. I flipped the channel and saw Texas Tech play better against Oklahoma than they ever did under Mike Leach. And yet, the big winner last night may have been Boise State. 

Follow with me here. I think that Oklahoma will beat the rest of the teams on its schedule, including Oklahoma State and Kansas State. I think that Oregon will beat Stanford. I think that Clemson will Clemson a game somewhere down the stretch. I don't think that Houston matters. It could well be that when all is said and done, we're left with an undefeated SEC Champion (13 days until this year's biggest football game in the history of the world) and an undefeated Boise State sitting above all others. Would the pollsters prevent Boise from getting to the BCS title game if the only other option are one-loss teams? I can't see it, not after the last five years and two BCS Bowl wins. Boise State has shown that it belongs at this level. 

Get your slingshots ready, this is the year that David finally meets the biggest of Goliaths.

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