Football Outsiders, if you are not familiar, is a website for the stat geek and ever since FSUncensored turned me onto this site, I'm like a kid in a candy store. But no one comes to this blog to hear me talk about my obsession with numbers. So I just wanted to post this 2008 Big 10 Efficency Rating List that Football Outsiders put together and don't forget: This is an efficiency rating chart, which means when it says Ohio State has the best passing offense in the Big 10, it means when they decided to throw the ball, they were most effective. Below the chart I put the criteria they used to put together this graph.
|
Big 10 Conference |
||||||||
|
Team |
Off. Rushing S&P+ |
Def. Rushing S&P+ |
Off. Passing S&P+ |
Def. Passing S&P+ |
Off. Close S&P+ |
Def. Close S&P+ |
Overall "+" |
Proj. Record |
|
PSU |
117.8 |
116.6 |
122.7 |
117.3 |
119.6 |
116.6 |
236.2 |
6-2 |
|
OSU |
104.8 |
108.2 |
124.1 |
125.0 |
117.3 |
118.1 |
235.4 |
8-0 |
|
Iowa |
116.0 |
128.2 |
111.1 |
110.2 |
115.5 |
114.6 |
230.1 |
7-1 |
|
Illinois |
86.0 |
98.9 |
83.2 |
93.1 |
116.7 |
97.4 |
214.1 |
4-4 |
|
UW |
113.7 |
94.8 |
89.5 |
109.1 |
101.6 |
101.9 |
203.5 |
4-4 |
|
NW |
89.3 |
95.3 |
107.4 |
96.5 |
98.3 |
97.7 |
195.9 |
5-3 |
|
MSU |
85.1 |
100.2 |
109.7 |
101.7 |
95.8 |
96.6 |
192.5 |
4-4 |
|
PU |
94.4 |
96.2 |
93.1 |
102.1 |
89.3 |
98.7 |
187.9 |
3-5 |
|
Minn. |
79.9 |
101.3 |
89.2 |
91.7 |
85.5 |
95.6 |
181.1 |
3-5 |
|
UM |
93.2 |
99.7 |
71.5 |
92.9 |
82.9 |
95.0 |
178.0 |
0-8 |
|
Ind. |
86.0 |
78.9 |
83.2 |
84.1 |
90.6 |
85.5 |
176.1 |
0-8 |
Rushing S&P+ (offense and defense): A comparison of a team's rushing output to the output expected based on the number of rushes against the team's opponents.
Passing S&P+ (offense and defense): A comparison of a team's passing output to the output expected based on the number of passes against the team's opponents.
Overall "+": This is the measure by which the teams in these tables are ranked. It is simply Offensive Close-Game S&P+ plus Defensive Close-Game S&P+. In this category, 200 signifies average, not 100.
Projected Record: In theory, if you know how many equal points per game Team A averages rushing and passing, and if you know how far Team B usually holds opponents above or below their season averages, then you can come up with a figure that represents Team A's likely output against Team B, and vice versa. Throw in a home-field adjustment, and you can project likely results and therefore a team's likely record based on their (conference) season averages.
Courtesy of Football Outsiders
This graph does a good job of illustrating Iowa's solid play and how effective they actually were...and how those close losses took their season from BCS game to Outback. We also get another reminder of how bad Michigan's passing offense was, as if that was needed.