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2009 Bowl Projections - Post Week 8


Heart stopped beating.  Twice.  More on that later this week.  For now, the biggest takeaways are these:

  • The Big XII is bad.  After Texas, Oklahoma State and a snake-bit Oklahoma squad, there is nothing of consequence there.  I'm absolutely shocked at how Nebraska and Kansas seem to be unable to step up and claim the North title.  And if that wasn't bad enough, make sense of these scores: 1) Texas Tech 66  Kansas State 14  2) Kansas State 62  Texas A&M 14  3) Texas A&M 52  Texas Tech 30  It makes my head hurt.  Unless Texas either loses on Saturday to Oklahoma State or loses in the Big XII title game, this league is only getting one BCS team this year.
  • The SEC is shallow.  After you get past Alabama, Florida, and LSU, there's not a lot to see here.  Ole Miss and South Carolina look to be the best of what's left, but neither is that impressive.
  • If USC loses to Oregon this Saturday and Notre Dame drops a third game somewhere (against PItt maybe?), the 10-2 Trojans will be very likely headed to the Fiesta Bowl and a matchup with the mid-major that gets into the BCS. I don't know if Oregon gets the same treatment if they lose on Saturday.  My guess is that the Fiesta takes the Big Ten runner-up.
  • Not much changed from last week.  Halloween night will be the big shake-up.  Projections are after the jump...

Remember the rules.

  1. These are projections.  I am taking into account what will happen in future games, not assigning teams based upon current standings.
  2. The best teams don't always go to the best games.  In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.  
  3. The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Orange Bowl; 4) Fiesta Bowl; 5) Sugar Bowl.
  4. The Champs Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Alamo Bowl this year.
  5. For the full rules on BCS selections, look here
    Bcs_championship_logo2009_sm_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Alabama_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Texas_old5_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Alabama made it closer than it should have been last week.  Texas may have found a groove, which it will need in Stillwater.  
    Orangebowl_2005_small_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Georgia_tech_medium Penn_state_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium 11-1 Penn State is definitely here.  10-2 Penn State probably goes to the Capital One Bowl.  That makes the game with Ohio State huge for the Lions.
    Fiestabowl_2006_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Notre_dame_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Texas_christian_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium TCU is very good.  Very, very good.  Notre Dame is just good enough.  Remember, 10-2 Notre Dame goes to the BCS.  
    Sugarbowl_2006_sm_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Florida_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Cincinnati_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium SEC Championship game loser versus the Big East winner, which looks like the PItt/Cincy winner.  This could be a very exciting game. 
    Rosebowl_small_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Iowa_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Southern_california_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium USC/Oregon will decide this on Saturday night.  Iowa can get here by winning out (and being kept out of the BCS Championship by undefeated SEC Champion and Texas), or by going 11-1 with Ohio State losing once more.
    Capitalonebowl2002_small_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Ohio_st_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Lsu_medium_medium_medium_medium This projects Ohio State's streak of Big Ten championships to end.  Both of these teams control their own destiny for their league crowns.
    Outbackbowl_2008_sm_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Michigan_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium South_carolina_old13_medium South Carolina is far better than I thought they would be.  If Michigan can stay within one win of the Badgers, the Outback will choose them.
    Champssportsbowl_2004_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Wisconsin_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Clemson_medium_medium_medium Wisconsin may be able to move up if they can beat the Wolverines.  Michigan's cache will keep them above the Badgers otherwise.  Clemson's win over Miami doesn't change their lot much.  They're still likely the fourth team in the ACC pecking order.
    Alamobowl_2007sm_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Michigan_st_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Nebraska_medium_medium Big XII rules state a division winner can fall no lower than the Alamo Bowl.  Expect to see the Big XII North champ here.  Despite their loss to Iowa State (that's fun to write about someone other than Iowa), I'll put the Huskers here.
    Insightbowl2002_small_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Minnesota_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Missouri1_medium As I mentioned, the Big XII is not good after those top three teams.
    Images_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Northwestern_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Central_michigan_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Northwestern managed to slip by Indiana, which means that they should slip into Detroit.  Central Michigan is really good.
    Images_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Indiana_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Purdue_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Illinois_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium If you can't win six games, you end up On the Couch with the Queso Bowl.