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2009 Bowl Projections - Post Week 5

Northwestern and Michigan State both stared into the abyss that is the queso bowl.  And somehow, both rallied back and kept their bowl hopes alive.  I know that it may seem over-dramatic to claim that bowl hopes could end in Week 5.  But 1-4 for Sparty, or 2-3 for Northwestern (with Minnesota and Purdue done), is not a recipe for even the PIzza Bowl.  

Not a lot of change this week in the projections.  My prior lack of respect for Oklahoma and California meant that the results of the two biggest games of the week don't even cause a ripple in the projections.  The only change in the Big Ten order is Penn State hopping above Michigan.  This change is not due to Michigan's loss; I expected that.  It's due to Penn State's win and the fact that I can't even remotely see them losing to anyone but Ohio State or Michigan in their remaining schedule--and I doubt they drop both of those. The projections follow below.


Northwestern barely squeezed out a win in West Lafayette.

Remember the rules.

  1. These are projections.  I am taking into account what will happen in future games, not assigning teams based upon current standings.
  2. The best teams don't always go to the best games.  In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.  
  3. The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Orange Bowl; 4) Fiesta Bowl; 5) Sugar Bowl.
  4. The Champs Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Alamo Bowl this year.
  5. For the full rules on BCS selections, look here
Bcs_championship_logo2009_sm_medium_medium_medium Alabama_medium_medium_medium_medium Texas_old5_medium_medium_medium_medium Alabama's Defense versus Tebow in the SEC Championship game may be the best matchup of the season.
Orangebowl_2005_small_medium_medium_medium Virginia_tech_medium_medium Iowa_medium_medium_medium_medium Oklahoma's loss really solidifies the likelihood of a second Big Ten team in the BCS.
Fiestabowl_2006_medium_medium_medium Notre_dame_medium_medium_medium_medium Texas_christian_medium_medium_medium_medium Notre Dame is going to lose to USC in two weeks.  I'm going to leave them in the Fiesta Bowl to replace Texas.  I'm warning you of this now.  TCU is not going to lose this year.
Sugarbowl_2006_sm_medium_medium_medium Florida_medium_medium_medium_medium Cincinnati_medium_medium_medium You can pencil in this matchup.  You can put in ink that it will be the SEC Championship Game loser versus the Big East champion.
Rosebowl_small_medium_medium_medium Ohio_st_medium_medium_medium_medium Southern_california_medium_medium Shame on you if you believed in Cal this weekend.  You knew better than that.
Capitalonebowl2002_small_medium_medium_medium Penn_state_medium_medium_medium_medium Lsu_medium No one really believes that LSU is the 4th best team in the country, but they keep winning.  I'd love to see the Penn State defense face off against Jordan Jefferson.
Outbackbowl_2008_sm_medium_medium_medium Michigan_medium_medium_medium_medium Georgia_medium_medium_medium When all is said and done, I see Georgia finishing with a better record than the Gamecocks.  That, and South Carolina's trip to Tampa last year make the Bulldogs the easy call.
Champssportsbowl_2004_medium_medium_medium Wisconsin_medium_medium_medium_medium Georgia_tech_medium Wisconsin's offense has been impressive.  Their defense has not.  I have them returning to Orlando, but don't be surprised if the Champs Bowl reaches for Minnesota.  Wisconsin has had five straight bowls in Florida, including three in Orlando.
Alamobowl_2007sm_medium_medium_medium Minnesota_medium_medium_medium_medium Kansas_medium_medium_medium Is it real irony, or Alanis Morrisette irony, if the year that Minnesota finally plays their home games outdoors, they have to go indoors for their bowl game?
Insightbowl2002_small_medium_medium_medium Michigan_st_medium_medium_medium_medium Texas_tech_medium_medium You can find four wins: @Illinois, Northwestern, Western Michigan, @Purdue.  The fifth (for seven on the season) will take a win @Minnesota, or versus Iowa or Penn State.  Sparty better win the next two weeks.
Images_medium_medium_medium_medium Northwestern_medium_medium_medium_medium Central_michigan_medium_medium_medium_medium You can find three wins: Indiana, Miami (OH), @Illinois.  The fourth (for 7 on the season) will take an upset of Penn State, @Iowa, Wisconsin, or @Michigan State.  With the way they're playing now, let's keep them at 6.





For a few brief moments, Juice reminded us of what he can do.  In the end, it didn't matter.  Illinois looks lost on offense.  These three teams are destined to sit On the Couch with the Queso Bowl.