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2009 Bowl Projections - Post Week 9

After nine weeks of football, you start to see the slotting occur.  There may be some surprises yet, and there is a bunch of losing that will happen before we get to the BCS Championship Game.  But at this point, these can be true projections and not just guesses.

Saturday night cleared up a couple of big things.  The Big 12 South came into sharp focus with Texas's dominating win.  Barring something completely unforeseen (and I don't mean an injury to Colt McCoy; I mean like an asteroid wiping out Austin and all of its inhabitants), Texas will win the Big 12 South.  Only slightly less certain is that they will win it with a 12-0 record, crush the crappy team that emerges from the Big 12 North, and play in the BCS Championship Game.

Hilary celebrates a Wisconsin win and mourns Northwestern's loss to Penn State...

A recap of Week 9 in the Big Ten, where we attempt to make sense of the Iowa game..

Two time zones west, the Pac-10 race also looks much clearer now.  Oregon's win gives them, a two game lead over USC, and unless Arizona can work a three way tie with the Ducks and Trojans (possible, though unlikely) at 7-2 in conference, USC's reign has ended in the Pac-10.

Bilde_medium Timmsu_medium

Could Iowa bring back the old winged uniforms for a feathered Rose Bowl?

How does this impact the BCS At Large spots? First, unless Texas loses in the Big 12 Championship game, that league is only getting one bid this year. Second, Virginia Tech's head-shaking loss to North Carolina really diminishes the likelihood of two bids from the ACC. 10-2 USC may be in play, especially if Notre Dame loses one more.  For now, I see USC missing the BCS for the first time since 2001. And now, to the projections. 

Remember the rules.

  1. These are projections.  I am taking into account what will happen in future games, not assigning teams based upon current standings.
  2. The best teams don't always go to the best games.  In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.  
  3. The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Orange Bowl; 4) Fiesta Bowl; 5) Sugar Bowl.
  4. The Champs Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Alamo Bowl this year.
  5. For the full rules on BCS selections, look here

Bcs_championship_logo2009_sm_medium Alabama_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Texas_old5_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium The only intrigue will be if it comes down to an undefeated Iowa or Cincinnati versus a one-loss SEC team.  For now, I still think that Florida and Alabama will both be undefeated in Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game.
Orangebowl_2005_small_medium Georgia_tech_medium_medium Penn_state_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Right now, it looks like a Tech/Clemson battle for the ACC title.  Don't sleep on the Tigers.  They almost beat Georgia Tech last time.  Penn State needs to win out to guarantee a BCS spot.  I think that they will.
Fiestabowl_2006_medium Notre_dame_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Texas_christian_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium I've been on TCU since the first projections.  They are a legitimate Top 10 team.  Notre Dame has to win out, including games at Pitt and at Stanford.  That looks harder now than it did at the beginning of the season.
Sugarbowl_2006_sm_medium Florida_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Cincinnati_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Again, this will be the SEC Championship Game loser against the Big East winner.  It may end up being one of the most interesting games of the season.
Rosebowl_small_medium Iowa_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Oregon_old10_medium If Penn State beats Ohio State this weekend, Iowa only needs to win their home games against Northwestern and Minnesota to get here.  If the Buckeyes win, Iowa will need to beat Ohio State, or see Michigan do it to end the season.
Capitalonebowl2002_small_medium Ohio_st_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Lsu_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium The Capital One has to be chomping at the bit for this matchup.  They haven't had the Buckeyes this decade, and have only had LSU after the 2004 season.
Outbackbowl_2008_sm_medium Wisconsin_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium South_carolina_old13_medium_medium The Outback is most upset that Michigan got Zooked.  Unless Michigan wins out to get to 8-4 (which would include a win over Wisconsin), I don't think that Wisconsin gets jumped.  It's possible that 8-4 Ole Miss or Auburn gets chosen for this slot instead of a Gamecock return trip.
Champssportsbowl_2004_medium Michigan_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Clemson_medium How much will Rich Rodriguez watch Spiller and wish that he had him in the read option offense?
Alamobowl_2007sm_medium Minnesota_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Nebraska_medium_medium_medium OK Gophers, here's your chance.  You can go to the best bowl game in almost 50 years if you beat Illinois and South Dakota State at home.  Northwestern and Michigan State look to top out at 6-6, which means that they couldn't be picked ahead of you.  You might get bumped up one more if Michigan can't find a 7th win. The winner of the Big 12 North can fall no lower than this bowl.
Insightbowl2002_small_medium Michigan_st_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Texas_am_old1_medium Win 7 games, and Sparty moves up a spot in the pecking order.
Images_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Northwestern_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Central_michigan_medium Win 7 games, and Northwestern moves up a spot in the pecking order.
Images_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Indiana_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium
Illinois_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium This year, if you can't get to six wins, you can expect to be On the Couch with the Queso Bowl (sponsored bu Ro*Tel!).  Indiana and Purdue waded deeper into the cheese with their losses on Saturday. Illinois is just having fun being a spoiler.

And now, we add the other 23 bowl games...

Newmexicobowl_small_2006_medium Air_force_old2_medium Idaho_medium
Stpetersburg_bowl_2008_ii_sm_medium South_florida_medium Southern_mississippi_medium
Neworleansbowl_2006_medium East_carolina_medium Troy_medium
Lasvegasbowl_maaco_2009_sm_medium Byu_medium Oregon_st_medium Las Vegas will be happy to have the BYU fans every year, thank you.
Poinsettiabowl_small_2006_medium San_diego_st_medium Ucla_old_medium I can only assume that San Diego State's turn around is due to the impressive job that Chuck Long has done as the Asst. to the Traveling Secretary.
Hawaiibowl_2003_medium Nevada_medium Marshall_old18_medium
Meinekecarcarebowl_sm_2005_medium West_virginia_medium Florida_st_medium I suspect that they'll choose Bobby Bowden against his old team over a rematch of last year's game.
Emeraldbowl2006_sm_medium Arizona_medium Boston_college_medium As a small private school with a tiny (relative) alumni base, BC will always be "underseeded" as a bowl team.
Musiccitybowl_2006_sm_medium Tennessee_medium North_carolina_medium Nashville would love this matchup.
Independencebowl_2006_medium Arkansas_medium Kansas_medium Ar-kansas versus Kansas.  Could be a good game to watch.
Congressionalbowl_2008a_sm_medium Duke_medium Central_florida_medium If C-USA can get a sixth team eligible, they fill the spot that Army can't.  It's going to be a tough one for UCF.  Duke needs one win to get here.
Humanitarianbowl_2007sm_medium Utah_medium Boise_st_medium I expect that the Mountain West will send one of its three best teams here to face the Broncos.  I also expect that if Boise State goes to the BCS, Idaho will slide in here.
Texasbowl_non_medium Missouri1_medium Navy_medium With their sixth win, Navy became the first team to lock up their bid.  
Holidaybowl2002_small_medium Oklahoma_st_medium Southern_california_medium The Holiday Bowl has waited and waited for their chance to get the Trojans in San Diego.
Armedforcesbowl_logo_medium Wyoming_medium Southern_methodist_medium
Sunbowl_2006_medium Texas_tech_medium California_medium
Chickfila_bowl_sm_medium Virginia_tech_medium Auburn_medium If Auburn can get to 8-4 by beating either Georgia or Alabama, I expect that they'll go to the Cotton Bowl.  There is also a shot that they could be taken over a second consecutive trip by South Carolina to the Outback.
Gatorbowl_2008_sm_medium Miami_fl_medium Pittsburgh_medium The Gator Bowl is hoping that Notre Dame loses one more game.  You don't think that they wouldn't like to start printing "Catholics vs. Convicts" T-Shirts?
Internationalbowl_sm_medium Rutgers_medium Temple_old8_medium It is still weird to see Temple in a bowl game.
Papajohnscom_bowl_2009_sm_medium Kentucky2_medium Connecticut_medium
Cottonbowl_2007_sm_medium Oklahoma_medium Mississippi_medium I expect OU to beat the Cowpokes.  The Cotton Bowl will gladly take 9-3 Oklahoma over 9-3 Oklahoma State.
Libertybowl_2004_medium Georgia_medium Houston_old8_medium Great matchup for the C-USA champion.
Gmacbowl_small_medium Northern_illinois_medium Iowa_st_2008_medium If Iowa State can get that 6th win, I expect them to get a bid somewhere.  Right now, they fill a spot that the ACC can't.