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2009 Bowl Projections - Post Week 13

By Bama Hawkeye

Everything is clear.  Some things are clear as crystal.  Others are as clear as mud.  But make no mistake, the situation is clear.

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TCU will go to the BCS.  The BCS Championship?  Only with a couple of upset losses.

On the crystal side, the SEC Champ will play Texas, Cincinnati, or TCU in the BCS Championship Game.  I think that's the order, too.  If Texas beats Nebraska, they'll go.  If not, Cincy is next in line.  After playing the Pitt, they'll move ahead of TCU in the standings.  Should the Bearcats fall to the Panthers, I think TCU gets their chance.  I do not see a repeat of the SEC Championship game.  Not with one viable undefeated team in the clubhouse and two more approaching 18.  All in all, the 10 BCS teams are pretty safe bets. I've mentioned some alternatives, but I think that there are only 15 teams in play for the 10 spots.On the mud side, look at the SEC after the top 4 teams are placed. That's right, six 7-5 teams.

This Week's Articles

JerDogg finally admits that Minnesota just ain't that good.

Graham ranks the Big Ten quarterbacks for their 2009 performance.

Greg discusses the future of Tate Forcier and moving Denard Robinson to WR.

Good luck making any sense of it.  I took my best shot, but you can feel free to speculate in a different direction.  If you're counting, there are four open bowl spots for at large teams.  9 win MTSU and 7 win Bowling Green and Northern Illinois will take three of the spots. That leaves room for one 6-6 team to go to Mobile, Alabama to play the top choice from the MAC.  My guess is that it's UCLA.

Full projections of all of the Big Ten, BCS, and every other bowl game after the jump. 

Remember the rules.

  1. These are projections.  I am taking into account what will happen in future games, not assigning teams based upon current standings.
  2. The best teams don't always go to the best games.  In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.  
  3. The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Orange Bowl; 4) Fiesta Bowl; 5) Sugar Bowl.
  4. The Champs Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Alamo Bowl this year.
  5. For the full rules on BCS selections, look here. 
Bcs_championship_logo2009_sm_medium_medium_medium Alabama_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Texas_old5_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium The SEC Champion will finish Number 1 in the BCS.  Texas will finish #2 if they beat the Huskers.  If they lose, Cincinnati will finish #2 with a win over PItt.  If Texas and Cincy lose, TCU will slide into the number two spot.
Orangebowl_2005_small_medium_medium_medium Georgia_tech_medium_medium_medium_medium Texas_christian_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Beware of Clemson.  Aren't they most dangerous after losing a game they have no business dropping?  If Clemson wins the ACC, the Orange Bowl will likely take Cincinnati over a regular season rematch.
Fiestabowl_2006_medium_medium_medium Iowa_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Boise_st_medium_medium_medium Oklahoma State's loss means that the second Big Ten BCS team will be in Arizona, not Florida.  If the Huskers upset Texas, Nebraska will be here, Texas will be selected by the Orange, and the Fiesta will still get a Big Ten team (and Boise will be left out).  And yes, it very well could be Penn State over Iowa.  If it was the Orange making the decision, it probably would be.  But I'm still thinking that the Fiesta goes black and gold (and $green$).
Sugarbowl_2006_sm_medium_medium_medium Florida_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Cincinnati_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium The only way that this isn't the SEC Runner-Up versus the Big East Champ is if Clemson or Nebraska pulls the upset.
Rosebowl_small_medium_medium_medium Ohio_st_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Oregon_old10_medium_medium_medium Ohio State has punched their ticket.  The winner of Oregon/Oregon State will do the same.  It says here that the Ducks win and head to Pasadena.
Capitalonebowl2002_small_medium_medium_medium Penn_state_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Lsu_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium LSU slips back into Orlando after Ole MIss lays an Egg against Mississippi State. From the Big Ten, this will be the loser of the behind the scenes battle between Iowa and Penn State.
Outbackbowl_2008_sm_medium_medium_medium Wisconsin_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Tennessee_medium_medium_medium Is there any chance that this could be Northwestern?  Maybe if Wisconsin loses at Hawaii, but I still have a hard time seeing the Wildcats winning that tiebreaker. Picking Tennessee here establishes them as the most desirable of the SEC's 7-5 mob.
Champssportsbowl_2004_medium_medium_medium Northwestern_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Clemson_medium_medium_medium I think Clemson gets this bid after Virginia Tech and Miami. 
Alamobowl_2007sm_medium_medium_medium Michigan_st_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Oklahoma_medium_medium_medium Yes, I think that 7-5 Oklahoma is selected over 8-win Missouri and Texas Tech.  If good-MSU and good-OU show up, this could be a great game.  If one of the schools brings their bad squad, it could get ugly.
Insightbowl2002_small_medium_medium_medium Minnesota_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Missouri1_medium_medium_medium I don't see this matchup going well for the Gophers.  Then again, if it was OU or Texas Tech, I don't know that it would go much better.
Images_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Middle_tennessee_st_medium_medium Ohio_old11_medium_medium Another Big Ten-less Motor City Bowl.
Images_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium

Purdue_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium

Michigan_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium

Indiana_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium

Illinois_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium

 When you can't get to six wins, you know that you'll spend the season On the Couch with the Queso Bowl (now sponsored by Ro*Tel).

 

Newmexicobowl_small_2006_medium_medium_medium

 Nevada_medium_medium_medium Wyoming_medium_medium_medium Kudos to Wyoming for getting bowl eligible.  
Stpetersburg_bowl_2008_ii_sm_medium_medium_medium Central_florida_medium_medium_medium Connecticut_medium The bowl will want a Florida connection if it can get it.
Neworleansbowl_2006_medium_medium_medium Troy_medium_medium_medium East_carolina_medium_medium_medium Troy has clinched their trip back to New Orleans. ECU makes for a great matchup.
Lasvegasbowl_maaco_2009_sm_medium_medium_medium Oregon_st_medium_medium_medium Byu_medium_medium_medium BYU makes their 122nd consecutive trip to Las Vegas.  Oregon State will be a great match for them there.
Poinsettiabowl_small_2006_medium_medium_medium Arizona_medium_medium_medium Utah_medium_medium_medium I expect the Mountain West to arrange their alignment to give their big three the best games possible.
Hawaiibowl_2003_medium_medium_medium Southern_mississippi_medium_medium_medium Fresno_st_medium_medium Both teams say that they'll play "anytime, anywhere."  Time to prove it.
Meinekecarcarebowl_sm_2005_medium_medium_medium Pittsburgh_medium_medium_medium North_carolina_medium_medium_medium This will be Pitt or West Virginia from the Big East.  For the second year in a row, Tar Heel fans should fill the seats.
Emeraldbowl2006_sm_medium_medium_medium Stanford_old8_medium_medium Florida_st_medium_medium_medium Bowden's last stand in that hotbed of college football --- San Francisco?
Musiccitybowl_2006_sm_medium_medium_medium Auburn_medium_medium_medium Boston_college_medium_medium_medium Boston College is always a tough out in a bowl game.  This should be no exception.
Independencebowl_2006_medium_medium_medium Kentucky2_medium_medium_medium Texas_am_old1_medium_medium_medium Independence Bowl selects its Big 12 team ahead of the Texas Bowl this year.  I think they take the team that gave Texas a battle over the team that beat Nebraska.  My guess is that it's a choice between Kentucky and South Carolina on the SEC side.  
Congressionalbowl_2008a_sm_medium_medium_medium Northern_illinois_medium_medium_medium Marshall_old18_medium_medium_medium If Army defeats Navy in two weeks, they'll replace Marshall.
Humanitarianbowl_2007sm_medium_medium_medium Bowling_green_medium Idaho_medium_medium_medium Idaho is happy enough to go bowling.  I'm sure that staying close to home is all right with them.
Texasbowl_non_medium_medium_medium Navy_medium_medium_medium Iowa_st_2008_medium_medium_medium Navy has clinched this bid.  On the Big 12 side, it will be whoever is left between Iowa State and Texas A&M.
Holidaybowl2002_small_medium_medium_medium Southern_california_medium_medium_medium Nebraska_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Could the Cotton take Nebraska over Oklahoma State?  Yes.  Especially if the Huskers show well in a loss to Texas.
Armedforcesbowl_logo_medium_medium_medium Southern_methodist_medium_medium_medium Air_force_old2_medium_medium_medium The Ponies are another team that won't mind the quick commute for the bowl game.
Sunbowl_2006_medium_medium_medium Texas_tech_medium_medium_medium California_medium_medium_medium Should be a fun game.
Chickfila_bowl_sm_medium_medium_medium Georgia_medium_medium_medium Miami_fl_medium_medium_medium Georgia brings the crowd, while Miami brings the sizzle.  
Gatorbowl_2008_sm_medium_medium_medium Virginia_tech_medium_medium_medium West_virginia_medium_medium_medium It's an old fashioned Big East battle.  Notre Dame's 6th loss means that the Gator Bowl can't pick the Irish.  My guess is that West Virginia will head to Jacksonville if Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh (and the Mountaineers beat Rutgers).  If the Panthers win, Cincy heads here.
Internationalbowl_sm_medium_medium_medium Rutgers_medium_medium_medium Temple_old8_medium_medium_medium Still weird to see Temple in a bowl.
Papajohnscom_bowl_2009_sm_medium_medium_medium South_carolina_old13_medium_medium_medium_medium South_florida_medium_medium_medium I've got South Carolina as the last choice out of the SEC.  It has as much to do with geography as anything else.
Cottonbowl_2007_sm_medium_medium_medium Oklahoma_st_medium_medium_medium Mississippi_medium_medium_medium Yes, this could be Nebraska over Okie State.  I suppose that one of those seven win SEC teams could be chosen here too.  When push comes to shove, I think that the teams with the best records get chosen.
Libertybowl_2004_medium_medium_medium Houston_old8_medium_medium_medium Arkansas_medium_medium_medium Think that Arkansas will bring some fans to Memphis?  I have Houston beating ECU.  The C-USA champ automatically goes here.
Gmacbowl_small_medium_medium_medium Central_michigan_medium_medium_medium Ucla_old_medium_medium_medium GMAC gets first choice from the MAC.  Not champion, first choice.  I project that's CMU, regardless of what happens elsewhere. It looks like it will come down to UCLA or Notre Dame to fill an empty ACC slot  With the firing/hiring going on in South Bend, I expect the Irish to decline a bid.