Bowl Projections - Post Week 7

Oklahoma has road games at Missouri and Oklahoma State that could be tricky. However, they also have such a strong tradition of winning in Columbia and Stillwater, that I feel more confident in selecting them for this game than I do the Ducks.

Oregon has a deep PAC-10 to wade through. Watch out for the game at USC in two weeks. All the Trojans have left to play for is ruining other teams' seasons. 

11-1 (7-1) Ohio State wins the tiebreaker over 10-2 (7-1) Iowa and 11-1 (7-1) Michigan State. After head to head is resolved (and Sparty and the Bucks don't play this season), we'll end up looking at higher BCS ranking. Ohio State will win that and a return to Pasadena.

The interesting question we may see is this: if Oklahoma or Oregon loses, would a one-loss SEC champ or Boise State grab the bid to the championship game? Talk radio will explode.

Alabama needs to get past Tennessee and get healthy before the closing stretch. I still see a 12-1 Alabama team not given a chance to defend its title.

This is a special year for Sparty. I think that they lose at Iowa, but win their other games. 11-1 will get them a BCS bowl, and a selection to see and old friend.

I think Florida State wins this. That said, winning the ACC this year isn't a huge thing to be bragging about.

Auburn will be undefeated going to Alabama for the Iron Bowl on November 26. They'll lose there, but 11-1 will keep them as an at large pick. 

I think Texas has lost for the last time this season. And, 10-2 Texas will be asked to replace OKlahoma (not 11-2 Nebraska after the Big 12 title game loss to Oklahoma) as the Big 12 representative. Head-to-head is part of it. But you also better believe that the Big 12 will be lobbying hard against their ex-pat.

West Virginia will have even less to brag about as champions of the Big East. The Mountain West champ will deserve, but not get, a BCS Bid much more.

Iowa will only drop a game against Ohio State. That said, I suspect that they'll be very glad that they catch Wisconsin the week that they do. Ask Kentucky about playing the team that just had an emotional victory over #1.

Arkansas has a schedule that should enable them to make it to 10-2 -- if they can get past Les Miles's voodoo.

What a huge win for Wisconsin. Unfortunately, I don't see them winning out in the Big Ten. A loss at Iowa next week seems likely.

Assuming that the SEC East Champ doesn't pull an upset in the SEC Championship game, this will only be the third year of the BCS without an SEC East representative. I think that Florida and South Carolina will both have at least four losses. I also think that the Outback will take Florida - something the bowl hasn't been able to since since the 2005 season.

A 7-5 Michigan is happily selected by the Gator Bowl. My guess is that the record is just good enough to save Rodriguez's job.

Kentucky isn't that good, but as the 7th team out of the SEC, it's the best remaining.

These are two 6-6 teams. My confidence that Penn State find three more wins is not very strong. I'm looking at the Northwestern game as their swing game. They can, and need to, win that one.

I'll explain 6-6 Texas A&M a little further down.

This is a 6-6 Illinois team. Unless Illinois get to seven wins, and has to be selected over Penn State, the Lions will get the more prominent bowl.

Baylor's win over Colorado giver them a viable route to 6 wins and a long awaited bowl game.

Northern wins the MAC and get the bid to the Detroit.

ULM is the third best team from the Sun Belt, which gets the Big Ten's berth in the Pizza when the league can't fill it.

When you can't get to six wins, you know that you'll spend the bowl season On the Couch with the Queso Bowl (sponsored by Ro*Tel).

Purdue has a route to six wins, but I think that it's asking too much to expect them to successfully navigate it. Indiana will be lucky to win a Big Ten game this season, namely because they don't get to play Minnesota, a team that has to be in the discussion with Kansas and Washington State for the worst team in the BCS.

Cincy takes the Big East slot this year, in a game that would have been more fun last year.

Texas Tech, Baylor, and Texas A&M can all get to six wins, and there are a couple of scenarios that make it probable. However, it's also entirely possible that one or two of them will drop a game that they need to win. That's what mediocre teams do some times. I have them all in right now, but time will tell.