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2010 Bowl Projections - Post Week 11

The BCS seemed to flirt with near misses this weekend. TCU barely scraped by San Diego State. Penn State had Ohio State figured out (and then lost it). Auburn seemed vulnerable against Georgia. Oregon looked bad against Cal. But in the end, there was to be no big shakeup. Some weeks are like that. So we just move on. Remember the Rules:

  1. The best teams don't always go to the best games.  In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.
  2. The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Sugar Bowl; 4) Orange Bowl; 5) Fiesta Bowl.
  3. If a Big Ten or Pac-10 team qualifies for the BCS Championship Game, the Rose Bowl will be required to take a non-automatic qualifier.  This will only be required of the Rose Bowl the first time it occurs over the next four years. 
  4. The Gator Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Insight Bowl this year.  It will rotate the other way next year.

Got it?  Good.  Let's get on to the projections.

11championship_medium_medium Oregon_medium_medium_medium Auburn_medium_medium_medium

Cal may have given a blueprint for how to beat the Ducks (and it's pretty similar to what the Buckeyes did last year). I just don't see anyone left on the schedule that can do it.

Auburn is taking a week off before they go to Tuscaloosa. How much will be used debating eligibility issues?

Rosebowl_small_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Wisconsin_medium_medium_medium Texas_christian_medium_medium_medium

I'm projecting that Wisconsin can hold its BCS lead over Ohio State...if it can win in Michigan. I don't know that that's a given.

If Auburn loses, you'll see Stanford taken here, as TCU will play in the BCS Championship Game.

Sugarbowl_2006_sm_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Lsu_medium_medium_medium Boise_st_medium_medium_medium

11-1 LSU (the strangest 11-1 team of all time?) is an easy replacement choice for the Sugar Bowl.

And, considering that 1) they won't need to worry about filling the stadium with LSU there and 2) the TV ratings that Boise drew against Virginia Tech, the Broncos get the call to the Big Easy. You're telling me you wouldn't want to watch the SEC vs. Boise?

Orange_medium_medium Virginia_tech_medium_medium_medium Ohio_st_medium_medium_medium

Virginia Tech still seems to be the best that the ACC can muster.

11-1 Ohio State will get an at large bid over 11-1 Michigan State or 11-1 Stanford. Every time. In fact, I wouldn't surprised to see the Buckeyes picked for a rematch in the Sugar Bowl.

Fiestabowl_2006_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Oklahoma_medium_medium_medium Pittsburgh_medium_medium_medium

I'm staying on PItt to win the Big East, but if they lose to West Virginia, we could have really fascinating 3 way tiebreaker with those two schools and ... Syracuse?

I also see Oklahoma winning out to get here. Yes, that includes victories over Okie State and Nebraska.

Capitalonebowl2002_small_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Michigan_st_medium_medium_medium Alabama_medium_medium_medium If Sparty goes 11-1 and Alabama loses to Auburn, no one will be happy to be here.
Outbackbowl_2008_sm_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Iowa_medium_medium_medium Mississippi_st_medium_medium_medium

Iowa seems locked in here...unless Michigan jumps them with an upset over Ohio State or Wisconsin. The Outback Bowl does prefer to take up and coming.

For that reason, I think they'll take 8-4 Mississippi State (and their huge number of traveling cow bells) over South Carolina (who goes to the Chick-Fil-A).

Gator_medium_medium Penn_st_medium_medium_medium Florida_medium_medium_medium A pretty nice matchup, actually.
Insightbowl2002_small_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Michigan_medium_medium_medium Missouri1_medium_medium_medium How many points will Mizzou put against the Wolverine "defense?" No, more than that. Missouri seems set as the fourth pick from the Big 12. With only one BCS team, that'll mean playing here.
Texasbowl_non_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Illinois_medium_medium_medium Baylor_medium_medium_medium

What you don't see is A&M beating Texas and getting the nod for the Holiday Bowl over Kansas State. That opens this slot for Baylor.

I am calling an Illini victory over the Persa-less Wildcats. That, and a win in Fresno, send the Zookers here.

Ticketcity-150x137_medium Northwestern_medium_medium_medium Texas_tech_old9_medium_medium_medium

And after K-State goes to the Bronx, Texas Tech gets the last Big Twelve Bowl bid here.

Northwestern goes to Dallas after losing their last two to Illinois and Wisconsin.

Littlecaesarsbowl_2009_sm_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Northern_illinois_medium_medium_medium Louisiana-monroe_medium NIU gets here after winning the MAC. It's possible that the Big Ten and Sun Belt both won't have enough eligible teams to fill this bowl. Actually, it's possible that college football won't have enough 6-6 teams to fill this bowl. You could see a 5-7 Old Oaken Bucket Champion go to Detroit. It is officially possible. Want it to happen? Root against teams like Texas and Iowa State who are hunting for win number six.




When you can't get to six wins, you know that you'll spend the bowl season On the Couch with the Queso Bowl (sponsored by Ro*Tel).

Hat tips all around. To Minnesota for a completely unexpected win. To Purdue for playing Michigan closer than anyone expected.  And to Indiana for allowing the Badgers to show just how high that scoreboard can go.