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Let me say it. I'm a fan of the bowl system. I do not want a playoff. I do not want a plus one. Friday afternoon showed why. Would you have watched Auburn-Alabama if we had a sixteen team playoff (as Dan Wetzel explains is the most viable possibility)? Really? You would have cared that an Auburn loss would sink them from the #2 to a #5 seed? You probably would have cared about as much as you do about the Duke-UNC game that ends the ACC college basketball season. It's a rivalry, and it can be great entertainment. But quick, who won the 2007 Duke-UNC game that ended the season? What impact did it have on the big picture? When people look back on 2010, they'll talk about Cam Newton's 24 point comeback and how it put Auburn on the cusp of the BCS Championship Game. It will be much in the same way that we can talk about the 2007 Pitt-West Virginia game and how Pitt prevented West Virginia from playing for a national title. It's easy to knock ESPN for many things, but their slogan for college football is dead on - "Every Game Matters." You won't be able to say that with a playoff. Long live the bowls.
We're looking at all 35 bowls this week. But before we do, Remember the Rules:
- The best teams don't always go to the best games. In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.
- The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Sugar Bowl; 4) Orange Bowl; 5) Fiesta Bowl.
- If a Big Ten or Pac-10 team qualifies for the BCS Championship Game, the Rose Bowl will be required to take a non-automatic qualifier. This will only be required of the Rose Bowl the first time it occurs over the next four years.
- The Gator Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Insight Bowl this year. It will rotate the other way next year.
- For the record, I project 71 teams with at least 6 wins. 6-6 Western Michigan is the only eligible team that does not go bowling.
Got it? Good. Let's get on to the projections.
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It's win and you're in for Oregon and Auburn. TCU sits in the clubhouse, and they'll go if one should stumble. Should 2007 break out and both lose, it will be a complete mess as we look to find TCU's opponent. |
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Wisconsin should remain as the highest ranked of the three Big Ten Champions. That sends them to Pasadena. TCU is going to the Rose Bowl...unless there is a slip up by Auburn or Oregon. |
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The Sugar Bowl is loving life. The entire state of Arkansas will converge on the Big Easy...if 50,000 Buckeyes don't take up the hotel rooms first. This could be the best game in the BCS. |
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I like Virginia Tech to win the ACC Championship Game. The really interesting pick will be what the Orange Bowl does with it's at large selection. It looks like its choices will be 11-1 Stanford from 4500 miles away or 9-3 Big East Champ West Virginia (I'm projecting a USF win over UConn). The Mountaineers travel very well, and I'm putting them here. But, this is the mystery spot of the BCS. |
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Stanford had a huge weekend. Sure, they beat Oregon State, but almost as important were the losses by Boise and LSU. That should move the Cardinal into 4th Place in the BCS standings. And, that means an automatic berth. I can't decide if the top five teams in the Big 12 are all really good, or all really average and bolstered by a weak league. I'm sticking with OU to beat Nebraska and set up a rematch of last year's Sun Bowl. |
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Michigan State fans can book their parkhopper tickets in DisneyWorld. Could the Cap One pick Alabama over LSU for a sexier storyline and a fanbase that wasn't in Orlando last year? Yes. Will they? I doubt it. |
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Here starts the Big Ten craziness. With 4 (and maybe 5 after next weekend) 7-5 teams, there is a lot of uncertainty in these picks. I think that Penn State gets the top spot. I don't think that 9 win South Carolina falls below the Outback, but it's possible that this could be Mississippi State. |
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Both teams are 7-5. Neither fan base is happy. Could the Michigan defense be the cure for Florida's offense, or vice versa? |
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Unless Illinois loses to Fresno State next week, they'll be an attractive pick at 7-5. I think that they get the nod over a demoralaized Iowa fanbase and a Northwestern team that doesn't seem to be very good without their quarterback. We won't have a repeat of the season opener, so Texas A&M jumps Mizzou. If the Insight goes with the Tigers, expect to see Iowa taken here.
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Houston was never on Iowa's radar at the start of the season. Or even three weeks ago. At somepoint, we'll need a breakdown of 2010 among the greatest flops in Iowa history (1961, 1988, 1997 & 2005 are all in the discussion), but it will likely dampen the number of fans that the Hawks bring. Baylor over Texas Tech and Kansas State among the 7 win teams? They're likely the most excited fan base. |
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Northwestern can wonder what would have happened the last two weeks if Dan Persa had not been hurt. I played that game last year. Have fun with it. Texas Tech fills the last Big 12 bowl berth. |
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A tip of the hat to 10-2 NIU, who is playing some inspired football. I wouldn't be surprised if the MAC tries to send them to Boise to play a better team from the WAC. But, that still sounds like a punishment. Because the Big Ten can't fill this slot (something that won't be said after the league has 12 members), the third pick from the Sun Belt gets to go. Problem is, the Sun Bowl only has two bowl eligible teams. That's why I'm guessing that the Pirates step in here. |
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When you can't get to six wins, you know that you'll spend the bowl season On the Couch with the Queso Bowl (sponsored by Ro*Tel). It's a great time to look to the likelihood of success in 2011 for these three. Purdue should be in the best position to succeed...if they can keep players healthy. Indiana should be in the best position to succeed...if they hire Mike Leach to turn those giant wide receivers into even scarier weapons. Minnesota should be in the best position to succeed...if they bring the passion that they found in their last two games. |
And now, everybody else...