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2010 Bowl Projections - Post Week 1

What do we know? It's always the toughest question after Week 1. How much stock do we put in what we saw? And how much stock do we keep in what we knew coming into the season. Cases in point: Florida, Texas, and Oklahoma. All three of the blue bloods looked competent and best, troubling at worst, in their opening week wins. Should they be written off? Or do we remember how Iowa looked last year as they survived and advanced their way to a BCS Bowl?

And what do we make of Boise State? If Virginia Tech is the best that the ACC has to offer this season (BIG if), Boise showed that they can go toe with a BCS league champion. But, does that mean that they can hold their own against Alabama? Ohio State? Nebraska? I didn't see that in their performance last night. But, what do you accept from what you see? After Week 1, your eyes are deceiving you

Now remember, these are projections, not "if the season ended today" picks. I'm accounting for what I think will happen in the remaining weeks. Here are the RULES FOR 2010.

  1. The best teams don't always go to the best games.  In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors. (This isn't new)
  2. The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Sugar Bowl; 4) Orange Bowl; 5) Fiesta Bowl. (This is new)
  3. If a Big Ten or Pac-10 team qualifies for the BCS Championship Game, the Rose Bowl will be required to take a non-automatic qualifier.  This will only be required of the Rose Bowl the first time it occurs over the next four years. (This is new and huge)
  4. The Gator Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Insight Bowl this year.  It will rotate the other way next year. (This is new)
  5. For the full rules on BCS selections, look here

Let's emphasize number 3 a bit more.  If Ohio State (or Wisconsin...or Iowa...) runs the table and qualifies for the BCS Championship game, the Rose Bowl WILL NOT be able to pick the Big Ten runner-up to match against the Pac-10 champion (like it did with Illinois in 2007 and Michigan in 2006) IF (and only if) there is a non-BCS conference team in the Top 12 of the final BCS standings, the non-BCS team will have to be selected.  Had this rule been introduced in 2006, Boise State would have played USC in the Rose Bowl, not Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.  Had the rule been introduced in 2007, Hawaii would have played USC in the Rose Bowl, not Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.  This will happen ONLY THE FIRST TIME that both a) the Rose Bowl loses a Pac-10 or Big 10 team and 2) a non-BCS team finishes in the Top 12 of the BCS standings occur in the same season.

Got it?  Good.  Let's get on to the projections.

Bcs_championship_logo2010_sm_medium Ohio_st_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium
I've gone back and forth on this, but I'm casting my lot with the Huskers until someone beats them. I think that Ohio State and Nebraska both run the table and have a memorable first game of the 2011 Big Ten Season.
Rosebowl_small_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Oregon_old10_medium_medium_medium_medium Boise_st_medium_medium_medium_medium I think that the world's chance of being rid of the blue menace ended last night. Oregon looks like the class of the Pac-10. If USC should win the Pac-10, the second place team will go.
Sugarbowl_2006_sm_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Alabama_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Iowa_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Yes, the SEC will scream when their one-loss champion doesn't play for the title. The horde of Iowa fans make them a good choice against Alabama. FYI: this is Ivan Maisel's championship game.
Orangebowl_2010_sm_medium Florida_st_medium_medium_medium_medium Georgia_medium_medium_medium_medium I'm a believer in FSU. After watching Florida get stymied by a bad MAC team, I think that this may be one of those years that someone else rises up in the SEC East. I'm guessing 2-loss Georgia gets this spot over 2-loss Auburn (who they beat in the South's oldest rivalry game).
Fiestabowl_2006_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Oklahoma_medium_medium_medium_medium West_virginia_medium_medium_medium_medium Big 12 Runner-Up Oklahoma gets picked to replace Nebraska. With last pick, the Fiesta Bowl gets the Big East consolation prize. If you have an idea who that will be, you're better than me.
Capitalonebowl2002_small_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Wisconsin_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Auburn_medium_medium_medium_medium Don't sleep on either of these teams -  as BCS at large teams or as league champs.
Outbackbowl_2008_sm_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Penn_state_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Florida_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Could JoePa's last game be a win over Florida?
Gatorbowl_2008_sm_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Michigan_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium South_carolina_old13_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Yes, I do believe that this is an 8 win Michigan squad. However, there is no way that Dernard Robinson stays healthy for 12 games if he carries the ball 20 times against Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan Statem Ohio State, Penn State, etc. Maybe I'm selling South Carolina short, but history says otherwise.
Insightbowl2002_small_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Michigan_st_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Missouri1_medium_medium_medium_medium I'm very wary of the Spartans this year. Last year, they had all of the hype and had their annual Fall crash. This year, they may be better than that. I could see them at 10-2 (and in a much better bowl). I expect that this slot is going to the Big 12 North runner-up, which will likely be Mizzou or K-State.
Texasbowl_non_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Northwestern_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Baylor_medium_medium_medium_medium Start your season with the Big 10-SEC Brain Bowl. End it with the Big 10-Big 12 Brain Bowl
Dallasclassic_2010_sm_medium Purdue_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Southern_methodist_medium_medium_medium_medium No Big Ten team disappointed me more than Purdue. I didn't expect them to win, but I did expect them to show up. This bowl spot is shaky at best. 
Littlecaesarsbowl_2009_sm_medium_medium_medium Temple_old8_medium_medium_medium_medium Troy_medium_medium_medium_medium The Big Ten can't fill it's spot, and the Pizza Bowl is obligated to the second choice from the Sun Belt when that happens.
Images_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Illinois_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium Indiana_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium_medium


When you can't get to six wins, you know that you'll spend the bowl season On the Couch with the Queso Bowl (now sponsored by Ro*Tel).  

I was impressed that Illinois showed flashes of competence against Missouri. Indiana destroyed a team. That's good, but it wasn't just a 1-AA team, but a bad 1-AA team. Let's not get carried away. Minnesota is still my pick for worst team in the league.