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Post Week 1 - 2011 Bowl Projections

That's it. We're through. I thought it was going to last this time, Notre Dame. I thought that this was going to be a year when you reminded me of those good times in the past. I was wrong, and I won't let you hurt me any more. From now on, you're on my list with Florida State. Until you prove otherwise, I'll just think of you as overrated in the summer. It's over.

In the Big Ten, there wasn't that much unexpected that happened. It's hard to read too much into teams playing that level of opponent though. As a result, not much has changed since last week. In all the wins, Northwestern's defensive performance was most notable. If they can keep that up, and if Dan Persa can get healthy, they may be scarier than I thought. Of course, it's hard to put a lot of stock in "ifs" after the games have actually started.

As for the projections, let's remember that there are rules:

  1. The best teams don't always go to the best games.  In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors.
  2. The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Fiesta Bowl; 4) Sugar Bowl; 5) Orange Bowl.
  3. Until a team is officially bowl banned, we assume that they can and will go. So, no USC. Ohio State, Oregon, North Carolina, <ahem>'re in consideration until otherwise notified.
  4. If a Big Ten or Pac-10 team qualifies for the BCS Championship Game, the Rose Bowl will NOT be required to take a non-automatic qualifier.  This was only required of the Rose Bowl the first time (2010 season) it occurred over the current four-year contract. 
  5. The Insight Bowl picks its Big Ten team ahead of the Gator Bowl this year.  It will rotate the other way next year.

 Got it?  Good.  Let's get on to the projections.

Bcs_championship_logo2011_small_medium_medium Virginia_tech_medium_medium Alabama_medium_medium I didn't see anything that would make me want to change this. Undefeated Virginia Tech versus once-beaten Alabama.
Rosebowl_small_medium_medium Ohio_st_medium_medium Oregon_medium_medium An opening loss by Oregon eventually led to this very matchup in 2009. Don't read too much into a loss to a very good, and very fired up LSU.
Fiestabowl_2006_medium_medium Oklahoma_medium_medium Stanford_old8_medium_medium Oklahoma wins the Big 12 with one loss. 10-2 Stanford gets an at large bid for the second straight year.
Sugarbowl_2006_sm_medium_medium Mississippi_st_medium_medium Boise_st_medium_medium 10-2 Mississippi State is a replacement for Alabama. It says here that an undefeated Boise State still falls behind a one loss SEC champion.
Orangebowl_2010_small_medium_medium Wisconsin_medium_medium West_virginia_medium_medium 11-1 Wisconsin is the most attractive at large bid, and is taken to replace Virginia Tech. West Virginia is the Big East champ, and the last team selected.
Capitalonebowl2002_small_medium_medium Nebraska_medium_medium Lsu_medium_medium Nebraska heads to Orlando after winning the Legends Division. LSU is the third choice from the SEC. 
Outbackbowl_2010_small_medium_medium Michigan_medium_medium South_carolina_old13_medium_medium 9-3 Michigan heads to Tampa to face off against 10-3 South Carolina, the SEC East champ. 
Insightbowl2002_small_medium_medium Penn_st_medium_medium Oklahoma_st_medium_medium 8-4 Penn State against 8-4 Oklahoma State. I'm still wary of Okie State's defense, but I think it can get them this far.
Fl61806logo_medium Iowa_medium_medium Georgia_medium_medium Iowa is another 8-4 Big Ten team. Georgia finishes at 8-4 as well. Is that enough to save Mark Richt's job? By the way, this is now the Gator Bowl. Awesome.
Meineke_car_care_bowl_of_texas_small_medium_medium Michigan_st_medium_medium Texas_tech_medium_medium Michigan State is another 8-4 Big Ten team, I think. I'm worried about that defense after watching Youngstown State move the ball on them. Texas Tech slides in with 6 wins.
Ticketcity_bowl_small_medium_medium Illinois_medium_medium Tulsa_medium Seven-win Illinois is back in Texas for a bowl game. Back-to-back bowls for them is a huge deal. I still believe that we'll see Tulsa or SMU here for the C-USA representative. Neither looked that great this weekend.
Littlecaesarsbowl_2009_sm_medium_medium Northwestern_medium_medium Miami_oh_medium_medium Seven-win Northwestern becomes the first Big Ten team to make two appearances in the Motor City for bowl season. I'm sticking with Miami of Ohio as your MAC champion.
Dg_easy_meals_2011_rotelqueso_medium_medium Purdue_medium_medium



If you can't get to six wins, you're On the Couch with the Queso Bowl. Purdue did nothing to make me think that they can get past five wins.

Minnesota showed that they'll be a tougher game than anticipated, but they're still likely a year away.

Indiana. Oh, Indiana. Be grateful for the losses by Duke and Oregon State to FCS teams. It makes you look a little better by comparison.