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2013: Post Week 7 Bowl Projections

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Off Tackle Empire's wildly inaccurate bowl projections for the Big Ten following week seven. Northwestern takes a tumble this week.

Mike Carter-USA TODAY Sports

Week in and week out there are questions regarding the possibility of Ohio State making the BCS Championship. Typically, it goes something like: How does Ohio State get in over a __________ team who is undefeated. There isn't one answer but I suppose I could address a few of the possibilities:

  • Once again the college football world is ranting and raving about Oregon and their fast-pace offense. So? They're not going to go undefeated. Oregon has had a high flying offense for years now and they've gone undefeated once, with current Eagles Head Coach Chip Kelly. The Ducks still have to play a top 10 UCLA, go to Stanford and will likely play UCLA in the Pac-12 Championship game. It isn't going to happen.
  • Clemson? Really? I have to tell you why Clemson isn't going to make the BCS Championship? How about because they're fucking Clemson and will either lose to Florida State or South Carolina?
  • Florida State loses to Miami (FL) or Florida...or NC State (again).

And it's not that I necessarily think Ohio State is that dominant of a team. It's that they have the easiest path to go undefeated and they're already #4 in the nation. What's left on their schedule? A road trip to Michigan and whoever wins the disaster that is the West? Sorry, but I have more faith in Ohio State making the BCS Championship because of their schedule over those aforementioned teams.

Let's talk more about the Western Division of our beloved conference. Perhaps starting off with a photo would be appropriate?

Dumpster_fire_medium

Michigan was finally handed the loss that they should've gotten earlier in the season by the Nittany Lions. Maybe coaches will ultimately understand that you coach to win the game. You don't coach not to lose it. Bill O'Brien coached to win and guess what? He won. Take notes from BOB, Kirk Ferentz.

Oh, Northwestern. It's not surprising that you lost to Wisconsin in Madison. It is surprising that you didn't even get off the bus. Injuries appear to be taking a toll on the Wildcats. Vendric Mark has a what? Bad ankle? Bad hamstring? What's the deal with Kain Colter? Wasn't one of these guys in a boot at one point during the Wisconsin game? Northwestern needs to be healthy if they're going to be a contender in the West.

But I don't see that happening. Pat Fitzgerald and his team of really fast dwarves isn't going to stay healthy. Their loss (or losses) is Nebraska and Michigan State's gain. The Cornhuskers get Northwestern and Michigan State at home. Michigan has to travel to East Lansing and Iowa City (yes, Iowa City). The winner of the West will be 6-2 and crowned via tiebreaker. What a mess. Onto the projections.

The Rules:

  • The best teams don't always go to the best games. In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors. Some bowl games also have the "two loss-rule."
  • The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Orange Bowl; 4) Sugar Bowl; 5) Fiesta Bowl. If a Big Ten or Pac-10 team qualifies for the BCS Championship Game, the Rose Bowl will not be required to take a non-automatic qualifier.
  • The Outback Bowl only takes teams from the SEC East and Auburn.
  • Penn State is not bowl eligible until 2016.
  • I base these projections upon what I believe will be the final conference standings. The game by game method is rather unscientific: who would win the matchup 9 times out of 10? Naturally, that means I can't predict insane upsets.
  • It's very rare for a conference championship game loser to make a BCS Bowl. In the history of the BCS only three conference championship game losers have made BCS games: 2003 Oklahoma, 2008 Alabama and 2009 Florida. Thanks to user Incipient_Senescence for doing the research on this one.

The Projections:

Pick

Bowl

Matchup

Projection

0

BCS Championship

Pasadena, CA

vs. No. 2

Ohio State vs. Alabama

1

Rose

Pasadena, CA

vs. Pac-12/BCS

Wisconsin vs. Oregon

2

Capital One

Orlando, FL

vs. SEC No. 2

Michigan State vs. South Carolina

3

Outback

Tampa, FL

vs. SEC No. 4

Nebraska vs. Florida

4

Buffalo Wild Wings

Tempe, AZ

vs. Big 12 No. 4

Northwestern vs. Oklahoma

5

Gator

Jacksonville, FL

vs. SEC No. 6

Michigan vs. Ole Miss

6

Texas

Houston, TX

vs. Big 12 No. 6

Iowa vs. TCU

7

Heart of Dallas

Dallas, TX

vs. C-USA

Indiana vs. North Texas

8

Little Caesars

Detroit, MI

vs. MAC

Ohio vs. Western Kentucky

One can only imagine the draw for that Pizza Pizza Bowl.

Disagree? That's what the comments are for.