2013: Post Week 12 Bowl Projections

Mike has, like, a real job and stuff, apparently, that gets in the way of him doing this this week. MIKE YOUR A HORRIBLE JOURNALIST AND STUFFS. So you're stuck with me. I'm so sorry.

First, here are a few basic BCS rules:

· If a non-AQ school is ranked in the top 12 of the BCS they get an automatic bid; or

· A non-AQ school can get an automatic bid if they finish in the top 16 and their final BCS standing is higher than that of a champion of an AQ school.

· Mike Jones says not to worry about Notre Dame this year. I believe him.

· To get an at-large you have to win at least nine games and finish in the top 14.

· No more than two teams from the same AQ conference may appear in BCS games.

Mike’s rules:

· The best teams don't always go to the best games. In the end, butts in the seat and eyes to the television are the biggest factors. Some bowl games also have the "two loss-rule."

· The order of BCS selection is 1) Replacement for #1 Team; 2) Replacement for #2 Team; 3) Orange Bowl; 4) Sugar Bowl; 5) Fiesta Bowl. If a Big Ten or Pac-10 team qualifies for the BCS Championship Game, the Rose Bowl will not be required to take a non-automatic qualifier.

· The Outback Bowl only takes teams from the SEC East and Auburn.

· Penn State is not bowl eligible until 2016.

· It's very rare for a conference championship game loser to make a BCS Bowl.

· Mike bases these projections upon what he believes will be the final conference standings. I tried to do this. I probably did it very poorly. You will tell me I suck, and I will cry. His game by game method is rather unscientific: who would win the matchup 9 times out of 10? Naturally, that means I flipped a coin. Once. Screw you.

The Projections:

Pick	Bowl	Matchup	Projection
0	BCS Championship Pasadena, CA	BCS 1 vs. BCS 2	Alabama vs. Florida State
0	Orange Bowl Miami, FL	ACC vs. BCS	Clemson vs. *UCF
0	Sugar Bowl New Orleans, LA	SEC vs. BCS	Auburn vs. Fresno State
0	Fiesta Bowl Glendale, AZ	Big XII vs. BCS	Baylor vs. Stanford
1	Rose Pasadena, CA	vs. Pac-12/BCS	Ohio State vs. Oregon
2	Capital One Orlando, FL	vs. SEC No. 2	Michigan State vs. Missouri
3	Outback Tampa, FL	vs. SEC No. 4	Wisconsin vs. South Carolina
4	Buffalo Wild Wings Tempe, AZ	vs. Big 12 No. 4	Nebraska vs. Oklahoma
5	Gator Jacksonville, FL	vs. SEC No. 6	Iowa vs. Georgia
6	Texas Houston, TX	vs. Big 12 No. 6	Michigan vs. Texas Tech
7	Heart of Dallas Dallas, TX	vs. C-USA	Minnesota vs. Rice
8	Little Caesars Detroit, MI	vs. MAC	NIU vs. Arkansas State

This is why Mike Jones should always handle this. My head hurts.

My thoughts and rationale:

· I see both NIU and Fresno State winning out. That means 12-0 Fresno and 13-0 NIU, who are currently #15 and #16 in the BCS, respectively. NIU gets screwed when they finish above UCF, but so do the Bulldogs, sending them to the slaughter.

· Oh, Stanford. You dun screwed it all up. You had the inside track, and you go and lose to USC. For your efforts? You’re dropped .24 BCS points and 5 spots. Yet it looks like you’ll be able to now hang onto a top-12 spot, assuring yourself a BCS bid. Congrats, PAC-12. Somehow, I guess it works out.

· Auburn gets the SEC’s second BCS bid, losing to ‘Bama and beating Mizzou out by probably somewhere in the .01 range after Mizzou loses the SEC Championship Game. It will be discussed ad nauseam for months on end.

· Baylor wins out, wins the Big XII, and secures itself a place.

· Oklahoma State loses to Baylor but wins Bedlam, finishing 11-1 and holding onto something top-12ish.

· South Carolina is on the outside looking in after they lose to Clemson. Because the Outback Bowl is stupid, Auburn’s gone, and Texas A&M is the SEC No. 4, the Cotton Bowl and Outback Bowl flip-flop teams, and Wisconsin takes on the Gamecocks.

· Clemson wins out (sorry, The Citadel) and comfortably watches as Florida State piss-pounds whatever 5-3 team emerges from the ACC Coastal. They hover somewhere around #8 the entire time.

· UCLA wins out, loses the PAC-12 Championship Game, and none of that matters because Stanford why did I start writing this sentence

· Too bad, NIU. Don’t care.

So I think (I THINK) what I’m trying to say I see, top to bottom, is: Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State, Baylor, Oregon, Clemson, Auburn, Missouri, Stanford, South Carolina, Oklahoma State, Michigan State, UCLA, Fresno State, Northern Illinois, Central Florida, Arizona State. Texas A&M takes a tumble.

Regarding the B1G:

· Ohio State wins out and is there to pick up the pieces at #3 when Florida State or Alabama falter hahaha yeah OK.

· I can’t see Michigan State making up the .12 difference that Oklahoma State holds on them. Even though the computers are split on the Cowboys (anywhere from #8 to #20), they ride in over the Spartans. Conspiracy theories abound.

· Wisconsin, an angry #3, goes to the Outback and plays some run-ball all over South Carolina. Narratives abound.

· Nebraska limps to the finish with 8 or 9 wins. I’m not comfortable with saying they’re a lock to get to 9, though, and you can potentially flip Iowa and Nebraska if something goes amiss for the Huskers.

· Yep. Iowa. The Hawkeyes can beat Michigan at home this weekend, and there’s a sneaky upset chance against Nebraska. Who would’ve thunk it, right?

· A 7-5 Michigan gets picked over an 8-4 Minnesota. Sorry, Goldy. I love you all, I don’t think Reliant wants you two years in a row. So you get to go to the Cotton Bowl. Like I said: I’m so, so sorry.

· I flipped a coin on the CUSA representative who will play the Gophers in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. East Carolina will beat North Carolina State but lose to Marshall, and each of the other teams win out. Marshall goes to the Liberty Bowl on proximity. North Texas is close to both Dallas and Fort Worth, each home to a CUSA tie-in. East Carolina goes to Hawaii because screw this I’ve put in too much thought already. Rice goes to whichever of Dallas and Ft. Worth I haven’t already picked. That work for everyone? Cool.

Aww, too bad, NIU. Don’t care.

Disagree with me? I don't blame you. I think I disagree with me too. Tell me why I do, and maybe why you do, too!