2014: Post Week Eight Bowl Projections

There aren't going to be any undefeated teams by the end of the year, are there?

By Mike Jones Oct 21, 2014, 7:00am CDT

It wasn't pretty and Brian Kelly certainly wasn't happy about the end result but Florida State slipped by #5 Notre Dame and moved to a perfect 7-0. The most difficult test remaining on their regular season schedule is next week at Louisville and they'll probably face Duke in the ACC Championship game. That seems easy enough but Florida State enjoys making things difficult.

Aside from Baylor (ugh, Baylor), everyone else in the top 10 took care of business, including Alabama who absolutely punished Texas A&M. The Crimson Tide finish out their season with home games against MSU, West Carolina and Auburn and assuming they win out (why would I even assume that) they'll make the playoff.

Michigan State is still in the position they were a week ago. Even if they win out they need Oregon to lose for a playoff spot. Ohio State is also in the top 15 so I like their chances of making a New Years Bowl if they're a top 10 team and lose to Michigan State.

Maryland is the big winner this week in the Big Ten bowls, meaning Iowa is naturally the loser. Basically I think that 8 wins or more gets you into the higher tier bowls: Citrus, Outback, Holiday. Despite the "new way" of looking at bowl matches there's no way that a 7 or 6 win team gets over an 8 win team. The biggest problem with the Citrus Bowl is that I think it's down to Nebraska and Wisconsin for the bowl slot (unless Minnesota continues to roll) and that's boring as all hell. But do you see them putting a 8 win team in that slot? I don't see it happening. True, Nebraska has been there two out of the past three years, but at least they weren't in Orlando last year (like Wisconsin).

The rest are below.

The Rules:

Four teams are chosen for the College Football Playoff.
Six bowls rotate for the semifinals: Rose, Sugar, Cotton, Fiesta, Orange, Peach.
The bowls hosting the semifinals this year are the Rose and Sugar.
If the Big Ten Champion is eligible for a non-playoff bowl when the Rose and Sugar Bowls are hosting the semifinals, as they are this year, the Big Ten Champion will appear in the Fiesta, Peach or Cotton Bowl, but NOT the Orange Bowl.
The highest ranked champion from the Group of Five mid-majors (AAC, C-USA, MAC, MWC, Sun Belt) is guaranteed a spot in the non-playoff bowls if they fail to make the playoff.

More rules/information appear below. Here's a look at the bowls themselves:

College Football Playoffs:

Bowl	Location	Date	Opponents
Championship	Arlington, TX	1/12/15	Semi Winner v. Semi Winner
Rose	Pasadena, CA	1/1/15	No. 2 v. No. 3
Sugar	New Orleans, LA	1/1/15	No. 1 v. No. 4

New Year's Bowls (Non-Playoff Bowls):

Bowl	Location	Date	Opponents
Cotton	Arlington, TX	1/1/15	At-Large
Fiesta	Glendale, AZ	12/31/14	At-Large
Orange	Miami, FL	12/31/14	ACC vs. Big Ten/Notre Dame
Peach	Atlanta, GA	12/31/14	At-Large

Big Ten Bowls:

Bowl	Location	Opponent	Last 5
Rose Bowl or Playoff	Pasadena, CA or Playoff Site	Pac-12 or Playoff Team	MSU, UW, UW, UW, OSU
Citrus Bowl or Orange Bowl*	Orlando, FL or Miami, FL	SEC or ACC	UW, NU, NU, MSU, PSU
Outback Bowl	Tampa, FL	SEC	IA, UM, MSU, PSU, NW
Holiday Bowl	San Diego, CA	Pac-12	New
Music City or TaxSlayer Bowl**	Nashville, TN or Jacksonville, FL	SEC	NU, NW, OSU, UM, NU
San Francisco Bowl	San Francisco, CA	Pac-12	New
Pinstripe Bowl	New York City, NY	ACC	New
Quick Lane Bowl	Detroit, MI	ACC	New
Heart of Dallas or Armed Forces Bowl****	Fort Worth, TX or Dallas, TX	C-USA	PU, PSU, NW

* - The Big Ten, along with the SEC, will be eligible to face the ACC representative in the Orange Bowl at least three out of the eight seasons that it does not host a semifinal for the Playoff over a 12-year span. Notre Dame will be chosen the other two years if eligible. (It's from Wikipedia so it must be true). Also note that if the Big Ten is chosen for the Orange Bowl they give up their spot in the Citrus Bowl.

** - The Big Ten and ACC will switch between the Music City and Gator Bowl (now simply known as the TaxSlayer Bowl) on alternate years. In 2014 the Big Ten has the TaxSlayer Bowl.

*** - The San Francisco Bowl was the Fight Hunger Bowl and the Quick Lane Bowl is the new Detroit bowl game.

**** - The Big Ten and Big 12 will rotate these bowls in alternating years. In 2014 the Big Ten has the Heart of Dallas Bowl.

Now for the projections.

Bowl Projections:

Bowl	Matchup	Why
Rose Bowl	Ole Miss v. Oregon	SEC Champ v. Pac-12 Champ
Sugar Bowl	Florida State v. Alabama	Undefeated FSU v. #2 SEC
Cotton Bowl	TCU v. Michigan State	OU losing gives TCU this spot
Fiesta Bowl	Baylor v. Ohio State	#2 Big 12 v. #2 Big Ten
Orange Bowl	Clemson v. Mississippi State	ACC runner-up v. One loss MSU
Peach Bowl	Notre Dame v. ECU	ECU is the best of the G5
Citrus Bowl	Nebraska v. Auburn	Big 10 runner up v. the next best SEC
Outback Bowl	Minnesota v. Missouri	Did you know Missouri is 5-2?
Holiday Bowl	Wisconsin v. USC	Bucky to San Diego
TaxSlayer Bowl	Maryland v. LSU	Maryland moves up
San Francisco Bowl	Iowa v. Arizona State	Someone has to go West
Pinstripe Bowl	Penn State v. Pittsburgh	Fanbase proximity and neat rivalry
Quick Lane Bowl	Rutgers v. Boston College	Old Big East game
Heart of Dallas Bowl	Northwestern v. Middle Tenn	C-USA teams keep losing

Queso Bowl Participants:

via content.dollargeneral.com

No. 1 Seed in the Ro-Tel Queso Bowl: Illinois
No. 2 Seed in the Ro-Tel Queso Bowl: Indiana
No. 3 Seed in the Ro-Tel Queso Bowl: Purdue
No. 4 Seed in the Ro-Tel Queso Bowl: Michigan

Purdue's remaining schedule is Nebraska, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Indiana. I can see them going 2-2 in that timeframe. Not even joking. Purdue Harbor is due.