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2014: Post Week Eleven Bowl Projections

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SPARTY NO.

Adam Bettcher

You had one job Sparty. One job. And you blew it. Well, you'll still make a New Year's Bowl.

But good job, Ohio State. Way to make certain that the Big Ten won't be sending anyone to the first College Football Playoff. You monsters! Had the Buckeyes not lost to Virginia Tech earlier in the year they'd be in excellent position to take the third or fourth spot in the playoff. Unfortunately, I think that loss is just too damaging and keeps them out.

On the national scale Florida State and Oregon still have their spot locked up with the remaining two going to a SEC or Big 12 team. The SEC West is going to devour itself alive, as we expected, but I think Alabama emerges. The Big 12 is more interesting because with TCU's victory over Kansas State they've got Kansas, Texas and Iowa State to finish out the year. In short, they'll go 11-1. Baylor has a tougher road with OSU, Texas Tech and Kansas State. Should they both go undefeated Baylor would obviously get the nod as they beat TCU earlier in the year. But I don't think they'll go undefeated. So we'll say TCU.

The Rules:

  • Four teams are chosen for the College Football Playoff.
  • Six bowls rotate for the semifinals: Rose, Sugar, Cotton, Fiesta, Orange, Peach.
  • The bowls hosting the semifinals this year are the Rose and Sugar.
  • If the Big Ten Champion is eligible for a non-playoff bowl when the Rose and Sugar Bowls are hosting the semifinals, as they are this year, the Big Ten Champion will appear in the Fiesta, Peach or Cotton Bowl, but NOT the Orange Bowl.
  • The highest ranked champion from the Group of Five mid-majors (AAC, C-USA, MAC, MWC, Sun Belt) is guaranteed a spot in the non-playoff bowls if they fail to make the playoff.
  • The Big Ten Bowls are not necessarily in any order and should be broken into three tiers. First, the Citrus, Outback and Holiday are in the upper tier. The middle tier is Music City/TaxSlayer and San Francisco Bowl. The lower tier is whatever is left.

More rules/information appear below. Here's a look at the bowls themselves:

College Football Playoffs:

Bowl Location Date Opponents
Championship Arlington, TX 1/12/15 Semi Winner v. Semi Winner
Rose Pasadena, CA 1/1/15 No. 2 v. No. 3
Sugar New Orleans, LA 1/1/15 No. 1 v. No. 4

New Year's Bowls (Non-Playoff Bowls):

Bowl Location Date Opponents
Cotton Arlington, TX 1/1/15 At-Large
Fiesta Glendale, AZ 12/31/14 At-Large
Orange Miami, FL 12/31/14 ACC vs. Big Ten/Notre Dame
Peach Atlanta, GA 12/31/14 At-Large

Big Ten Bowls:

Bowl

Location

Opponent

Last 5

Rose Bowl or Playoff

Pasadena, CA or Playoff Site

Pac-12 or Playoff Team

MSU, UW, UW, UW, OSU

Citrus Bowl or Orange Bowl*

Orlando, FL or Miami, FL

SEC or ACC

UW, NU, NU, MSU, PSU

Outback Bowl

Tampa, FL

SEC

IA, UM, MSU, PSU, NW

Holiday Bowl

San Diego, CA

Pac-12

New

Music City or TaxSlayer Bowl**

Nashville, TN or Jacksonville, FL

SEC

NU, NW, OSU, UM, NU

San Francisco Bowl

San Francisco, CA

Pac-12

New

Pinstripe Bowl

New York City, NY

ACC

New

Quick Lane Bowl

Detroit, MI

ACC

New

Heart of Dallas or Armed Forces Bowl****

Fort Worth, TX or Dallas, TX

C-USA

PU, PSU, NW

* - The Big Ten, along with the SEC, will be eligible to face the ACC representative in the Orange Bowl at least three out of the eight seasons that it does not host a semifinal for the Playoff over a 12-year span. Notre Dame will be chosen the other two years if eligible. (It's from Wikipedia so it must be true). Also note that if the Big Ten is chosen for the Orange Bowl they give up their spot in the Citrus Bowl.

** - The Big Ten and ACC will switch between the Music City and Gator Bowl (now simply known as the TaxSlayer Bowl). In 2014 the Big Ten has the TaxSlayer Bowl.

*** - The San Francisco Bowl was the Fight Hunger Bowl and the Quick Lane Bowl is the new Detroit bowl game.

**** - The Big Ten and Big 12 will rotate these bowls in alternating years. In 2014 the Big Ten has the Heart of Dallas Bowl.

Now for the projections.

Bowl Projections:

Bowl

Matchup

Why

Rose Bowl

Alabama v. Oregon

#1 SEC v. Pac-12 Champion

Sugar Bowl

Florida State v. TCU

Undefeated v. Big 12 Champion

Cotton Bowl

Ohio State v. Baylor

#1 Big Ten v. #2 Big 12

Fiesta Bowl

Michigan State v. ASU

#2 Big Ten v. #2 Pac 12

Orange Bowl

Clemson v. Mississippi State

ACC runner-up v. 2/3 SEC

Peach Bowl

Ole Miss v. Marshall

Marshall is the best of the G5

Citrus Bowl

Nebraska v. Auburn

Big 10 runner up v. the next best SEC

Outback Bowl

Wisconsin v. Missouri

Did you know Missouri is 7-2?

Holiday Bowl

Minnesota v. Arizona

GOLDY BACK

TaxSlayer Bowl

Iowa v. Florida

Iowa has never been, they finally go

San Francisco Bowl

Maryland v. USC

Someone has to go West

Pinstripe Bowl

Rutgers v. Boston College

As much as I want the PSU v. Pitt, I don't think it's going to happen

Quick Lane Bowl

Penn State v. NC State

NC State can make a bowl...right?

Heart of Dallas Bowl

Michigan v. Rice

MMMM RICE

Queso Bowl Participants:

Rotel_queso_medium

via content.dollargeneral.com

  • No. 1 Seed in the Ro-Tel Queso Bowl: Indiana
  • No. 2 Seed in the Ro-Tel Queso Bowl: Purdue
  • No. 3 Seed in the Ro-Tel Queso Bowl: Illinois
  • No. 4 Seed in the Ro-Tel Queso Bowl: Northwestern

Northwestern got really close last week. Close. But horseshoes and hand grenades and all that.