2014: Post Week Five Bowl Projections

Even after a wacky weekend in the Big Ten there isn't much shakeup in the bowl projections.

By Mike Jones Sep 30, 2014, 7:00am CDT

On the national scale I think Florida State is a beatable football team. The problem is that I don't think there's anyone left on their schedule that can beat them. Notre Dame? Nah. Louisville? Maybe with Charlie still there. Florida? LOL. There's always the possibility that Duke or Virginia Tech could pull something wacky if they made the ACC Championship game but I'm not going to hold my breath. Other than Florida State's close call with NC State everything remained the same with the remaining top three teams: Alabama, Oregon and OU.

On the Big Ten front the craziness that was last weekend didn't shake much up on the bowl front. By that I mean I don't have any teams becoming bowl eligible or any dropping out of contention. I already had Minnesota going bowling, I still think Northwestern's schedule won't allow them more than 5 wins and Michigan was already eating plenty of Ro-Tel over the holidays.

With that said, lets get to it.

The Rules:

Four teams are chosen for the College Football Playoff.
Six bowls rotate for the semifinals: Rose, Sugar, Cotton, Fiesta, Orange, Peach.
The bowls hosting the semifinals this year are the Rose and Sugar.
If the Big Ten Champion is eligible for a non-playoff bowl when the Rose and Sugar Bowls are hosting the semifinals, as they are this year, the Big Ten Champion will appear in the Fiesta, Peach or Cotton Bowl, but NOT the Orange Bowl.
The highest ranked champion from the Group of Five mid-majors (AAC, C-USA, MAC, MWC, Sun Belt) is guaranteed a spot in the non-playoff bowls if they fail to make the playoff.

More rules/information appear below. Here's a look at the bowls themselves:

College Football Playoffs:

Bowl	Location	Date	Opponents
Championship	Arlington, TX	1/12/15	Semi Winner v. Semi Winner
Rose	Pasadena, CA	1/1/15	No. 2 v. No. 3
Sugar	New Orleans, LA	1/1/15	No. 1 v. No. 4

New Year's Bowls (Non-Playoff Bowls):

Bowl	Location	Date	Opponents
Cotton	Arlington, TX	1/1/15	At-Large
Fiesta	Glendale, AZ	12/31/14	At-Large
Orange	Miami, FL	12/31/14	ACC vs. Big Ten/Notre Dame
Peach	Atlanta, GA	12/31/14	At-Large

Big Ten Bowls:

Bowl	Location	Date	Opponent
Rose Bowl or Playoff	Pasadena, CA or Playoff Site	Various	Pac-12 or Playoff Team
Citrus Bowl or Orange Bowl*	Orlando, FL or Miami, FL	Various	SEC or ACC
Outback Bowl	Tampa, FL	1/1/15	SEC
Holiday Bowl	San Diego, CA	12/27/14	Pac-12
Music City or TaxSlayer Bowl**	Nashville, TN or Jacksonville, FL	Various	SEC
San Francisco Bowl	San Francisco, CA	12/30/14	Pac-12
Pinstripe Bowl	New York City, NY	12/27/14	ACC
Quick Lane Bowl	Detroit, MI	12/26/14	ACC
Heart of Dallas or Armed Forces Bowl****	Fort Worth, TX or Dallas, TX	12/26/14	C-USA

* - The Big Ten, along with the SEC, will be eligible to face the ACC representative in the Orange Bowl at least three out of the eight seasons that it does not host a semifinal for the Playoff over a 12-year span. Notre Dame will be chosen the other two years if eligible. (It's from Wikipedia so it must be true). Also note that if the Big Ten is chosen for the Orange Bowl they give up their spot in the Citrus Bowl.

** - The Big Ten and ACC will switch between the Music City and Gator Bowl (now simply known as the TaxSlayer Bowl) on alternate years. In 2014 the Big Ten has the TaxSlayer Bowl.

*** - The San Francisco Bowl was the Fight Hunger Bowl and the Quick Lane Bowl is the new Detroit bowl game.

**** - The Big Ten and Big 12 will rotate these bowls in alternating years. In 2014 the Big Ten has the Heart of Dallas Bowl.

Now for the projections.

Bowl Projections:

Bowl	Matchup	Why
Rose Bowl	Alabama v. Oregon	SEC Champ v. Pac-12 Champ
Sugar Bowl	Florida State v. Oklahoma	Undefeated FSU v. Big 12 Champ
Cotton Bowl	Baylor v. Michigan State	Galaxy Class offense v. Galaxy Class defense
Fiesta Bowl	Texas A&M v. UCLA	2/3/4 SEC v. 2/3 Pac-12
Orange Bowl	Clemson v. Auburn	ACC runner-up v. 2/3/4 SEC
Peach Bowl	Georgia v. Marshall	Committee wants a home team v. the best of the Group of 5
Citrus Bowl	Wisconsin v. Missouri	Big 10 runner up v. That team Indiana beat
Outback Bowl	Nebraska v. Mississippi State	Nebraska, with the next best record, takes on MSU
Holiday Bowl	Ohio State v. USC	A good old fashioned Rose Bowl matchup
TaxSlayer Bowl	Iowa v. Ole Miss	I always have Iowa going to the Gator Bowl (they never go)
San Francisco Bowl	Penn State v. Arizona	Following their Northwestern loss I have PSU going 7-5
Pinstripe Bowl	Rutgers v. Virginia Tech	Rutgers actually has a worse record than Minnesota and Maryland but they're in NY so...
Quick Lane Bowl	Minnesota v. North Carolina	that leaves Minnesota here...
Heart of Dallas Bowl	Maryland v. UTSA	and Maryland here. #MEEPMEEP

Queso Bowl Participants:

via content.dollargeneral.com

No. 1 Seed in the Ro-Tel Queso Bowl: Purdue
No. 2 Seed in the Ro-Tel Queso Bowl: Michigan
No. 3 Seed in the Ro-Tel Queso Bowl: Illinois
No. 4 Seed in the Ro-Tel Queso Bowl: Indiana
No. 5 Seed in the Ro-Tel Queso Bowl: Northwestern

As bad as Purdue is I still don't think they're worse than Michigan. Trust me, I just watched Danny Etling play. However, there's still plenty of time for Michigan to awful it up. Indiana and Northwestern are right on the cusp for bowl games. An upset here or there and they're right in the mix.

Disagree? Hit the comments.