FanPost

Hoegher's 2015 Rankings: WEEK SEVEN

Rutgers gave a prime example of why immediately spiking the ball on first down is dumb. Teams should take the Dan Marino option more often (or at least be prepared to do so).

scores and stats gather from the resources at Sports-Reference and CFBStats.

THE RANKINGS

A more complete listing can be found at the Dropbox link here: [LINK]. An imperfect explainer on what goes into these ratings can be found here: [LINK].

Team Conf Record Prj Rec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Est Lk rk
OklahomaState B12 6-0 10-2 0.66 18 22 1.27 19 0.78 39 1.34 11 0.25 1
MichiganState B10 6-0 9-3 0.56 22 21 1.09 46 0.76 37 1.45 9 0.22 2
Kentucky SEC 4-1 7-5 0.10 63 60 0.94 66 0.97 69 0.66 35 0.20 3
Toledo MAC 5-0 10-1 0.38 35 45 0.95 62 0.72 24 0.90 24 0.19 4
SouthAlabama Sun 3-2 6-6 -0.57 108 110 0.69 113 1.31 114 -0.39 84 0.19 5
Iowa B10 6-0 10-2 0.54 23 25 1.06 50 0.72 26 1.28 13 0.19 6
Florida SEC 6-0 11-1 0.90 3 7 1.13 38 0.50 5 1.73 1 0.19 7
Memphis Amer 5-0 9-3 0.26 49 49 1.21 28 1.05 78 0.70 32 0.18 8
Clemson ACC 5-0 11-1 0.82 6 10 1.25 21 0.63 13 1.53 6 0.18 9
TCU B12 6-0 10-2 0.80 8 12 1.52 3 0.89 57 1.64 4 0.17 10
Minnesota B10 4-2 6-6 0.12 62 67 0.74 105 0.75 34 0.62 38 0.16 11
Utah P12 5-0 10-2 0.75 11 16 1.22 26 0.71 22 1.68 2 0.15 12
Indiana B10 4-2 7-5 0.07 66 62 1.17 33 1.16 97 0.36 51 0.15 13
Temple Amer 5-0 10-2 0.45 27 43 1.04 51 0.67 19 0.69 33 0.15 14
TexasAM SEC 5-0 10-2 0.73 13 13 1.38 6 0.82 46 1.52 7 0.15 15
LSU SEC 5-0 9-3 0.77 10 6 1.30 12 0.72 27 1.54 5 0.14 16
FloridaState ACC 5-0 10-2 0.81 7 5 1.27 20 0.64 16 1.50 8 0.14 17
California P12 5-1 8-4 0.42 31 38 1.34 9 1.02 74 0.91 23 0.13 18
Northwestern B10 5-1 9-3 0.51 25 20 0.82 95 0.55 7 1.29 12 0.12 19
Auburn SEC 3-2 6-6 0.32 42 41 1.06 49 0.84 51 0.71 30 0.12 20
Illinois B10 4-2 6-6 0.20 55 51 0.97 60 0.77 38 0.16 60 0.11 21
Houston Amer 5-0 10-2 0.31 43 44 1.21 29 0.99 71 0.72 28 0.11 22
OhioState B10 6-0 11-1 0.88 4 2 1.29 16 0.63 12 1.67 3 0.11 23
Pittsburgh ACC 4-1 8-4 0.37 38 37 1.08 47 0.75 35 0.54 44 0.11 24
UTEP CUSA 2-4 4-8 -0.93 122 119 0.67 118 1.54 124 -1.30 116 0.10 25

And the Big Ten in particular...

Team Conf Record Prj Rec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Est Lk rk
MichiganState B10 6-0 9-3 0.56 22 21 1.09 46 0.76 37 1.45 9 0.22 2
Iowa B10 6-0 10-2 0.54 23 25 1.06 50 0.72 26 1.28 13 0.19 6
Minnesota B10 4-2 6-6 0.12 62 67 0.74 105 0.75 34 0.62 38 0.16 11
Indiana B10 4-2 7-5 0.07 66 62 1.17 33 1.16 97 0.36 51 0.15 13
Northwestern B10 5-1 9-3 0.51 25 20 0.82 95 0.55 7 1.29 12 0.12 19
Illinois B10 4-2 6-6 0.20 55 51 0.97 60 0.77 38 0.16 60 0.11 21
OhioState B10 6-0 11-1 0.88 4 2 1.29 16 0.63 12 1.67 3 0.11 23
PennState B10 5-1 8-4 0.40 33 42 0.90 74 0.64 15 0.83 25 0.08 29
Wisconsin B10 4-2 9-3 0.62 20 18 0.98 57 0.45 2 0.63 36 0.01 62
Maryland B10 2-4 3-9 -0.24 87 89 0.88 85 1.11 89 -0.26 79 0.00 69
Michigan B10 5-1 10-2 0.98 2 14 1.14 37 0.37 1 1.27 15 -0.03 78
Rutgers B10 2-3 4-8 -0.18 83 80 0.88 84 1.06 80 -0.21 74 -0.11 115
Purdue B10 1-5 2-10 -0.45 102 92 0.90 76 1.25 108 -0.91 107 -0.14 119
Nebraska B10 2-4 5-7 0.24 51 40 1.15 36 0.81 45 -0.13 70 -0.24 129

The sort order of the week is "estimated luck." Unlike my regular "luck" ratings, these do not depend on my ratings of each team. Think Boise State is rated too high? Great, doesn't affect this. The "estimated luck" of a team is solely dependent on the margin-of-victory a team puts up in their games, not adjusted for home field or opponent. More credit is given for dominating wins, closer games are treated more like the toss-ups they were. (the actual calculation just plugs the final margin into my win probability function).

I'll be honest, I just wanted to highlight Nebraska's pain. At -24% Est Lk, they are dead-(tr)ucking last across the FBS (including a generic FCS team). That is something special. I'd say it probably won't last, but y'all just got done with a coach that improbably hit four losses every season like clockwork, so maybe it's that Nebraska magic.

I've also got a similar rating "close luck" which only takes into consideration close games (7 pt threshold), while trying to adjust for opponent and home field. For example, Sparty just pulled out a close win against Rutgers, because their (interim) coach lost track of the downs. Given that Rutgers is crap-tastic (see: 4th down spike), it's a bit disingenuous to call that game a toss-up. I give Sparty a "close win likelihood" of 77%, which might be a better approximation.

You'll not be surprised to find that Nebraska rates out dead-(tr)ucking last by this metric as well (units are # wins, not win %):

Team Conf Record Prj Rec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Cls Lk rk
Iowa B10 6-0 10-2 0.54 23 25 1.06 50 0.72 26 1.28 13 0.96 6
Indiana B10 4-2 7-5 0.07 66 62 1.17 33 1.16 97 0.36 51 0.93 7
Illinois B10 4-2 6-6 0.20 55 51 0.97 60 0.77 38 0.16 60 0.76 10
Minnesota B10 4-2 6-6 0.12 62 67 0.74 105 0.75 34 0.62 38 0.70 12
MichiganState B10 6-0 9-3 0.56 22 21 1.09 46 0.76 37 1.45 9 0.62 15
OhioState B10 6-0 11-1 0.88 4 2 1.29 16 0.63 12 1.67 3 0.31 37
Northwestern B10 5-1 9-3 0.51 25 20 0.82 95 0.55 7 1.29 12 0.13 51
PennState B10 5-1 8-4 0.40 33 42 0.90 74 0.64 15 0.83 25 0.10 53
Maryland B10 2-4 3-9 -0.24 87 89 0.88 85 1.11 89 -0.26 79 0.00 59
Wisconsin B10 4-2 9-3 0.62 20 18 0.98 57 0.45 2 0.63 36 -0.22 87
Purdue B10 1-5 2-10 -0.45 102 92 0.90 76 1.25 108 -0.91 107 -0.40 99
Michigan B10 5-1 10-2 0.98 2 14 1.14 37 0.37 1 1.27 15 -0.55 110
Rutgers B10 2-3 4-8 -0.18 83 80 0.88 84 1.06 80 -0.21 74 -0.70 115
Nebraska B10 2-4 5-7 0.24 51 40 1.15 36 0.81 45 -0.13 70 -1.72 129

A reminder that Iowa is trash, of which this table offers irrefutable proof.

OVER/UNDER-RATED TEAMS OF THE WEEK

Team Conf Record Prj Rec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk AP Diff rk
OhioState B10 6-0 11-1 0.88 4 2 1.29 16 0.63 12 1.67 3 0.36 1
Baylor B12 5-0 10-2 0.80 9 15 1.63 1 0.85 52 1.07 19 0.30 2
MichiganState B10 6-0 9-3 0.56 22 21 1.09 46 0.76 37 1.45 9 0.29 3
TCU B12 6-0 10-2 0.80 8 12 1.52 3 0.89 57 1.64 4 0.25 4
Utah P12 5-0 10-2 0.75 11 16 1.22 26 0.71 22 1.68 2 0.23 5
Team Conf Record Prj Rec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk AP Diff rk
BoiseState MWC 5-1 11-1 0.83 5 9 1.29 14 0.54 6 0.97 20 -0.29 1
Alabama SEC 5-1 10-2 1.05 1 1 1.38 5 0.48 4 1.45 10 -0.29 2
USC P12 3-2 8-4 0.72 14 4 1.30 13 0.60 9 0.72 29 -0.26 3
Michigan B10 5-1 10-2 0.98 2 14 1.14 37 0.37 1 1.27 15 -0.26 4
Wisconsin B10 4-2 9-3 0.62 20 18 0.98 57 0.45 2 0.63 36 -0.17 5

I have complete confidence that Wisconsin will drop out of the "under-rated" queue soon. Though this will probably be because Wisconsin drops in my ratings, not the more pleasant option.

CURRENT QUESTS FOR PERFECTION

No real change this week, Kansas continues to be the premier example of perpetual losing. I will take this moment to note that North Texas lost 66-7 against Portland State this past week. At home no less. Takes a bit of shine off that "New Kirk" victory Iowa had.

Team Conf Record Prj Rec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Perf L rk
Kansas B12 0-5 0-12 -0.82 119 118 0.62 122 1.29 112 -1.38 119 0.73 1
CentralFlorida Amer 0-6 1-11 -0.76 117 105 0.68 116 1.22 103 -1.57 123 0.44 2
Wyoming MWC 0-6 1-11 -0.90 121 126 0.70 112 1.32 116 -2.03 128 0.35 3
NorthTexas CUSA 0-5 1-11 -1.03 127 121 0.64 120 1.51 123 -1.74 126 0.28 4
NewMexicoState Sun 0-5 2-10 -1.06 128 128 0.78 99 1.64 128 -2.10 129 0.16 5

WEEKLY WORST WATCH

Did I increase the number of teams tracked here to six just to make sure Rutgers wasn't excluded? I leave that question open for you to draw your own conclusions (the answer is yes).

Team Conf Record Prj Rec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Kansas B12 0-5 0-12 -0.82 119 118 0.62 122 1.29 112 -1.38 119 0.35 6
Purdue B10 1-5 2-10 -0.45 102 92 0.90 76 1.25 108 -0.91 107 0.27 22
Colorado P12 3-3 4-9 -0.26 89 79 0.87 86 1.04 77 -0.58 95 0.11 59
Maryland B10 2-4 3-9 -0.24 87 89 0.88 85 1.11 89 -0.26 79 0.34 10
Virginia ACC 1-4 3-9 -0.23 84 84 0.90 77 1.04 76 -0.56 92 0.36 5
Rutgers B10 2-3 4-8 -0.18 83 80 0.88 84 1.06 80 -0.21 74 0.13 54

THE PICKINGS

I went 29-26-0 last week. Currently 156-147-4 (51.5%) on the year.

Best prediction: Iowa over Illinois by 8.9 pts (actual MOV: Iowa by 9 pts)

Worst prediction: Utah State over Fresno State by 8.4 pts (actual MOV: Utah State by 42 pts)

Currently #26 out of 64 at PredictionTracker (by mean square error)

Lines taken from 5Dimes here. Home teams highlighted in blue.

Date Overcat H/V Underdog WLk Line Hoegh Prj Score Pk vs Veg
10/17 #10 LSU H #3 Florida 50% 7.0 -0.1 25.7 25.9 Florida
10/17 #1 Alabama V #13 TexasAM 62% 5.0 4.3 30.8 26.5 TexasAM
10/17 #16 NotreDame H #14 USC 56% 5.5 2.2 28.8 26.6 USC
10/15 #15 Stanford H #19 UCLA 61% 5.5 4.2 28.6 24.5 UCLA
10/17 #12 Oklahoma V #28 KansasState 60% 4.5 3.7 29.2 25.5 KansasState
10/17 #23 Iowa V #25 Northwestern 44% 1.0 -2.2 21.2 23.4 Northwestern
10/17 #2 Michigan H #22 MichiganState 79% 7.0 12.2 29.8 17.6 Michigan
10/17 #9 Baylor H #24 WestVirginia 74% 20.5 9.3 35.2 25.9 WestVirginia
10/17 #47 GeorgiaTech H #38 Pittsburgh 52% 2.5 0.6 28.5 27.9 Pittsburgh
10/17 #17 Mississippi V #49 Memphis 67% 10.5 6.4 34.1 27.8 Memphis
10/17 #62 Minnesota H #51 Nebraska 51% 0.0 0.2 24.5 24.2 Minnesota
10/17 #45 Miami H #46 VirginiaTech 58% 6.5 3.1 27.7 24.7 VirginiaTech
10/17 #11 Utah H #37 ArizonaState 78% 7.0 11.4 33.0 21.6 Utah
10/17 #4 OhioState H #33 PennState 82% 17.5 13.5 31.1 17.6 PennState
10/15 #42 Auburn V #63 Kentucky 56% 2.0 2.2 28.0 25.8 Auburn
10/17 #34 Washington H #52 Oregon 67% 1.5 6.4 31.7 25.3 Washington
10/16 #5 BoiseState V #59 UtahState 79% 9.5 12.3 31.0 18.7 BoiseState
10/17 #21 Georgia H #53 Missouri 76% 16.0 10.6 29.9 19.3 Missouri
10/17 #7 FloridaState H #48 Louisville 84% 7.0 15.3 33.3 18.0 FloridaState
10/17 #30 MississippiState H #60 LouisianaTech 73% 14.0 8.9 30.7 21.7 LouisianaTech
10/16 #29 BYU H #65 Cincinnati 77% ~ 11.1 36.5 25.4 ~
10/17 #84 Virginia H #72 Syracuse 49% 8.0 -0.5 27.6 28.1 Syracuse
10/17 #70 SouthCarolina H #75 Vanderbilt 62% 5.5 4.3 24.9 20.5 Vanderbilt
10/17 #91 SanJoseState H #79 SanDiegoState 49% 2.0 -0.4 26.1 26.5 SanDiegoState
10/17 #6 Clemson H #67 BostonCollege 90% 16.5 20.0 30.5 10.5 Clemson
10/17 #8 TCU V #76 IowaState 88% 21.0 17.9 39.5 21.6 IowaState
10/17 #50 Arizona V #89 Colorado 71% 8.0 8.3 34.4 26.1 Arizona
10/17 #69 WashingtonState H #80 OregonState 67% 8.0 6.5 30.2 23.7 OregonState
10/17 #61 EastCarolina H #78 Tulsa 74% 9.5 9.4 38.0 28.6 Tulsa
10/17 #85 Connecticut H #86 SouthFlorida 58% 2.5 3.1 24.1 21.0 Connecticut
10/17 #71 AirForce V #98 ColoradoState 61% 1.0 4.2 29.5 25.2 AirForce
10/17 #66 Indiana H #83 Rutgers 72% ~ 8.7 34.5 25.8 ~
10/17 #40 NorthCarolina H #81 WakeForest 83% 16.5 14.7 31.9 17.2 WakeForest
10/17 #88 CentralMichigan H #94 Buffalo 63% 7.0 4.8 28.0 23.2 Buffalo
10/13 #97 ArkansasState V #108 SouthAlabama 55% 6.0 2.0 30.0 28.0 SouthAlabama
10/17 #64 BowlingGreen H #93 Akron 79% 11.0 12.0 34.2 22.2 BowlingGreen
10/17 #77 MiddleTennessee H #99 FIU 72% 7.5 8.5 31.2 22.7 MiddleTennessee
10/17 #56 Ohio H #92 WesternMichigan 82% 3.5 14.0 34.5 20.4 Ohio
10/16 #101 UNLV V #112 FresnoState 55% 3.5 1.9 29.4 27.4 FresnoState
10/17 #58 AppalachianState V #106 LouisianaMonroe 80% 11.5 12.5 30.5 18.0 AppalachianState
10/17 #90 SouthernMississippi H #105 UTSA 70% 7.5 7.6 31.1 23.5 SouthernMississippi
10/17 #57 Marshall V #107 FloridaAtlantic 82% 7.0 13.6 32.9 19.3 Marshall
10/17 #109 Massachusetts H #111 KentState 60% 6.0 3.6 29.6 25.9 KentState
10/17 #20 Wisconsin H #102 Purdue 95% 19.5 26.7 38.7 11.9 Wisconsin
10/17 #103 NewMexico H #116 Hawaii 71% 5.5 8.0 30.1 22.1 NewMexico
10/16 #43 Houston V #114 Tulane 90% 17.5 19.6 39.6 20.0 Houston
10/17 #82 Nevada V #121 Wyoming 81% 7.0 13.2 33.9 20.7 Nevada
10/17 #113 Troy H #120 Idaho 70% ~ 7.7 35.0 27.3 ~
10/17 #41 TexasTech V #119 Kansas 93% 31.0 23.5 44.2 20.7 Kansas
10/17 #74 NorthernIllinois V #123 MiamiOH 85% 15.5 15.6 36.4 20.8 NorthernIllinois
10/17 #118 OldDominion H #126 Charlotte 70% 8.5 7.8 30.9 23.1 Charlotte
10/17 #27 Temple H #117 CentralFlorida 97% 21.5 30.2 40.6 10.4 Temple
10/17 #110 Army V Bucknell 74% ~ 9.6 33.8 24.2 ~
10/17 #95 BallState H #125 GeorgiaState 86% 16.5 16.8 39.0 22.2 BallState
10/15 #32 WesternKentucky V #127 NorthTexas 96% 31.0 29.6 45.8 16.2 NorthTexas
10/17 #73 GeorgiaSouthern H #128 NewMexicoState 94% 27.0 25.3 44.1 18.7 NewMexicoState
10/17 #35 Toledo H #124 EasternMichigan 97% 29.0 33.3 46.8 13.5 Toledo