Hoegher's 2015 Rankings: WEEK SEVEN

Rutgers gave a prime example of why immediately spiking the ball on first down is dumb. Teams should take the Dan Marino option more often (or at least be prepared to do so).

scores and stats gather from the resources at Sports-Reference and CFBStats.

THE RANKINGS

A more complete listing can be found at the Dropbox link here: [LINK]. An imperfect explainer on what goes into these ratings can be found here: [LINK].

Team	Conf	Record	Prj Rec	Tot Rat	rk	LW	Adj Off	rk	Adj Def	rk	Res Rat	rk	Est Lk	rk
OklahomaState	B12	6-0	10-2	0.66	18	22	1.27	19	0.78	39	1.34	11	0.25	1
MichiganState	B10	6-0	9-3	0.56	22	21	1.09	46	0.76	37	1.45	9	0.22	2
Kentucky	SEC	4-1	7-5	0.10	63	60	0.94	66	0.97	69	0.66	35	0.20	3
Toledo	MAC	5-0	10-1	0.38	35	45	0.95	62	0.72	24	0.90	24	0.19	4
SouthAlabama	Sun	3-2	6-6	-0.57	108	110	0.69	113	1.31	114	-0.39	84	0.19	5
Iowa	B10	6-0	10-2	0.54	23	25	1.06	50	0.72	26	1.28	13	0.19	6
Florida	SEC	6-0	11-1	0.90	3	7	1.13	38	0.50	5	1.73	1	0.19	7
Memphis	Amer	5-0	9-3	0.26	49	49	1.21	28	1.05	78	0.70	32	0.18	8
Clemson	ACC	5-0	11-1	0.82	6	10	1.25	21	0.63	13	1.53	6	0.18	9
TCU	B12	6-0	10-2	0.80	8	12	1.52	3	0.89	57	1.64	4	0.17	10
Minnesota	B10	4-2	6-6	0.12	62	67	0.74	105	0.75	34	0.62	38	0.16	11
Utah	P12	5-0	10-2	0.75	11	16	1.22	26	0.71	22	1.68	2	0.15	12
Indiana	B10	4-2	7-5	0.07	66	62	1.17	33	1.16	97	0.36	51	0.15	13
Temple	Amer	5-0	10-2	0.45	27	43	1.04	51	0.67	19	0.69	33	0.15	14
TexasAM	SEC	5-0	10-2	0.73	13	13	1.38	6	0.82	46	1.52	7	0.15	15
LSU	SEC	5-0	9-3	0.77	10	6	1.30	12	0.72	27	1.54	5	0.14	16
FloridaState	ACC	5-0	10-2	0.81	7	5	1.27	20	0.64	16	1.50	8	0.14	17
California	P12	5-1	8-4	0.42	31	38	1.34	9	1.02	74	0.91	23	0.13	18
Northwestern	B10	5-1	9-3	0.51	25	20	0.82	95	0.55	7	1.29	12	0.12	19
Auburn	SEC	3-2	6-6	0.32	42	41	1.06	49	0.84	51	0.71	30	0.12	20
Illinois	B10	4-2	6-6	0.20	55	51	0.97	60	0.77	38	0.16	60	0.11	21
Houston	Amer	5-0	10-2	0.31	43	44	1.21	29	0.99	71	0.72	28	0.11	22
OhioState	B10	6-0	11-1	0.88	4	2	1.29	16	0.63	12	1.67	3	0.11	23
Pittsburgh	ACC	4-1	8-4	0.37	38	37	1.08	47	0.75	35	0.54	44	0.11	24
UTEP	CUSA	2-4	4-8	-0.93	122	119	0.67	118	1.54	124	-1.30	116	0.10	25

And the Big Ten in particular...

Team	Conf	Record	Prj Rec	Tot Rat	rk	LW	Adj Off	rk	Adj Def	rk	Res Rat	rk	Est Lk	rk
MichiganState	B10	6-0	9-3	0.56	22	21	1.09	46	0.76	37	1.45	9	0.22	2
Iowa	B10	6-0	10-2	0.54	23	25	1.06	50	0.72	26	1.28	13	0.19	6
Minnesota	B10	4-2	6-6	0.12	62	67	0.74	105	0.75	34	0.62	38	0.16	11
Indiana	B10	4-2	7-5	0.07	66	62	1.17	33	1.16	97	0.36	51	0.15	13
Northwestern	B10	5-1	9-3	0.51	25	20	0.82	95	0.55	7	1.29	12	0.12	19
Illinois	B10	4-2	6-6	0.20	55	51	0.97	60	0.77	38	0.16	60	0.11	21
OhioState	B10	6-0	11-1	0.88	4	2	1.29	16	0.63	12	1.67	3	0.11	23
PennState	B10	5-1	8-4	0.40	33	42	0.90	74	0.64	15	0.83	25	0.08	29
Wisconsin	B10	4-2	9-3	0.62	20	18	0.98	57	0.45	2	0.63	36	0.01	62
Maryland	B10	2-4	3-9	-0.24	87	89	0.88	85	1.11	89	-0.26	79	0.00	69
Michigan	B10	5-1	10-2	0.98	2	14	1.14	37	0.37	1	1.27	15	-0.03	78
Rutgers	B10	2-3	4-8	-0.18	83	80	0.88	84	1.06	80	-0.21	74	-0.11	115
Purdue	B10	1-5	2-10	-0.45	102	92	0.90	76	1.25	108	-0.91	107	-0.14	119
Nebraska	B10	2-4	5-7	0.24	51	40	1.15	36	0.81	45	-0.13	70	-0.24	129

The sort order of the week is "estimated luck." Unlike my regular "luck" ratings, these do not depend on my ratings of each team. Think Boise State is rated too high? Great, doesn't affect this. The "estimated luck" of a team is solely dependent on the margin-of-victory a team puts up in their games, not adjusted for home field or opponent. More credit is given for dominating wins, closer games are treated more like the toss-ups they were. (the actual calculation just plugs the final margin into my win probability function).

I'll be honest, I just wanted to highlight Nebraska's pain. At -24% Est Lk, they are dead-(tr)ucking last across the FBS (including a generic FCS team). That is something special. I'd say it probably won't last, but y'all just got done with a coach that improbably hit four losses every season like clockwork, so maybe it's that Nebraska magic.

I've also got a similar rating "close luck" which only takes into consideration close games (7 pt threshold), while trying to adjust for opponent and home field. For example, Sparty just pulled out a close win against Rutgers, because their (interim) coach lost track of the downs. Given that Rutgers is crap-tastic (see: 4th down spike), it's a bit disingenuous to call that game a toss-up. I give Sparty a "close win likelihood" of 77%, which might be a better approximation.

You'll not be surprised to find that Nebraska rates out dead-(tr)ucking last by this metric as well (units are # wins, not win %):

Team	Conf	Record	Prj Rec	Tot Rat	rk	LW	Adj Off	rk	Adj Def	rk	Res Rat	rk	Cls Lk	rk
Iowa	B10	6-0	10-2	0.54	23	25	1.06	50	0.72	26	1.28	13	0.96	6
Indiana	B10	4-2	7-5	0.07	66	62	1.17	33	1.16	97	0.36	51	0.93	7
Illinois	B10	4-2	6-6	0.20	55	51	0.97	60	0.77	38	0.16	60	0.76	10
Minnesota	B10	4-2	6-6	0.12	62	67	0.74	105	0.75	34	0.62	38	0.70	12
MichiganState	B10	6-0	9-3	0.56	22	21	1.09	46	0.76	37	1.45	9	0.62	15
OhioState	B10	6-0	11-1	0.88	4	2	1.29	16	0.63	12	1.67	3	0.31	37
Northwestern	B10	5-1	9-3	0.51	25	20	0.82	95	0.55	7	1.29	12	0.13	51
PennState	B10	5-1	8-4	0.40	33	42	0.90	74	0.64	15	0.83	25	0.10	53
Maryland	B10	2-4	3-9	-0.24	87	89	0.88	85	1.11	89	-0.26	79	0.00	59
Wisconsin	B10	4-2	9-3	0.62	20	18	0.98	57	0.45	2	0.63	36	-0.22	87
Purdue	B10	1-5	2-10	-0.45	102	92	0.90	76	1.25	108	-0.91	107	-0.40	99
Michigan	B10	5-1	10-2	0.98	2	14	1.14	37	0.37	1	1.27	15	-0.55	110
Rutgers	B10	2-3	4-8	-0.18	83	80	0.88	84	1.06	80	-0.21	74	-0.70	115
Nebraska	B10	2-4	5-7	0.24	51	40	1.15	36	0.81	45	-0.13	70	-1.72	129

A reminder that Iowa is trash, of which this table offers irrefutable proof.

OVER/UNDER-RATED TEAMS OF THE WEEK

Team	Conf	Record	Prj Rec	Tot Rat	rk	LW	Adj Off	rk	Adj Def	rk	Res Rat	rk	AP Diff	rk
OhioState	B10	6-0	11-1	0.88	4	2	1.29	16	0.63	12	1.67	3	0.36	1
Baylor	B12	5-0	10-2	0.80	9	15	1.63	1	0.85	52	1.07	19	0.30	2
MichiganState	B10	6-0	9-3	0.56	22	21	1.09	46	0.76	37	1.45	9	0.29	3
TCU	B12	6-0	10-2	0.80	8	12	1.52	3	0.89	57	1.64	4	0.25	4
Utah	P12	5-0	10-2	0.75	11	16	1.22	26	0.71	22	1.68	2	0.23	5

Team	Conf	Record	Prj Rec	Tot Rat	rk	LW	Adj Off	rk	Adj Def	rk	Res Rat	rk	AP Diff	rk
BoiseState	MWC	5-1	11-1	0.83	5	9	1.29	14	0.54	6	0.97	20	-0.29	1
Alabama	SEC	5-1	10-2	1.05	1	1	1.38	5	0.48	4	1.45	10	-0.29	2
USC	P12	3-2	8-4	0.72	14	4	1.30	13	0.60	9	0.72	29	-0.26	3
Michigan	B10	5-1	10-2	0.98	2	14	1.14	37	0.37	1	1.27	15	-0.26	4
Wisconsin	B10	4-2	9-3	0.62	20	18	0.98	57	0.45	2	0.63	36	-0.17	5

I have complete confidence that Wisconsin will drop out of the "under-rated" queue soon. Though this will probably be because Wisconsin drops in my ratings, not the more pleasant option.

CURRENT QUESTS FOR PERFECTION

No real change this week, Kansas continues to be the premier example of perpetual losing. I will take this moment to note that North Texas lost 66-7 against Portland State this past week. At home no less. Takes a bit of shine off that "New Kirk" victory Iowa had.

Team	Conf	Record	Prj Rec	Tot Rat	rk	LW	Adj Off	rk	Adj Def	rk	Res Rat	rk	Perf L	rk
Kansas	B12	0-5	0-12	-0.82	119	118	0.62	122	1.29	112	-1.38	119	0.73	1
CentralFlorida	Amer	0-6	1-11	-0.76	117	105	0.68	116	1.22	103	-1.57	123	0.44	2
Wyoming	MWC	0-6	1-11	-0.90	121	126	0.70	112	1.32	116	-2.03	128	0.35	3
NorthTexas	CUSA	0-5	1-11	-1.03	127	121	0.64	120	1.51	123	-1.74	126	0.28	4
NewMexicoState	Sun	0-5	2-10	-1.06	128	128	0.78	99	1.64	128	-2.10	129	0.16	5

WEEKLY WORST WATCH

Did I increase the number of teams tracked here to six just to make sure Rutgers wasn't excluded? I leave that question open for you to draw your own conclusions (the answer is yes).

Team	Conf	Record	Prj Rec	Tot Rat	rk	LW	Adj Off	rk	Adj Def	rk	Res Rat	rk	Prj SOS	rk
Kansas	B12	0-5	0-12	-0.82	119	118	0.62	122	1.29	112	-1.38	119	0.35	6
Purdue	B10	1-5	2-10	-0.45	102	92	0.90	76	1.25	108	-0.91	107	0.27	22
Colorado	P12	3-3	4-9	-0.26	89	79	0.87	86	1.04	77	-0.58	95	0.11	59
Maryland	B10	2-4	3-9	-0.24	87	89	0.88	85	1.11	89	-0.26	79	0.34	10
Virginia	ACC	1-4	3-9	-0.23	84	84	0.90	77	1.04	76	-0.56	92	0.36	5
Rutgers	B10	2-3	4-8	-0.18	83	80	0.88	84	1.06	80	-0.21	74	0.13	54

THE PICKINGS

I went 29-26-0 last week. Currently 156-147-4 (51.5%) on the year.

Best prediction: Iowa over Illinois by 8.9 pts (actual MOV: Iowa by 9 pts)

Worst prediction: Utah State over Fresno State by 8.4 pts (actual MOV: Utah State by 42 pts)

Currently #26 out of 64 at PredictionTracker (by mean square error)

Lines taken from 5Dimes here. Home teams highlighted in blue.

Date	Overcat	H/V	Underdog	WLk	Line	Hoegh	Prj Score		Pk vs Veg
10/17	#10 LSU	H	#3 Florida	50%	7.0	-0.1	25.7	25.9	Florida
10/17	#1 Alabama	V	#13 TexasAM	62%	5.0	4.3	30.8	26.5	TexasAM
10/17	#16 NotreDame	H	#14 USC	56%	5.5	2.2	28.8	26.6	USC
10/15	#15 Stanford	H	#19 UCLA	61%	5.5	4.2	28.6	24.5	UCLA
10/17	#12 Oklahoma	V	#28 KansasState	60%	4.5	3.7	29.2	25.5	KansasState
10/17	#23 Iowa	V	#25 Northwestern	44%	1.0	-2.2	21.2	23.4	Northwestern
10/17	#2 Michigan	H	#22 MichiganState	79%	7.0	12.2	29.8	17.6	Michigan
10/17	#9 Baylor	H	#24 WestVirginia	74%	20.5	9.3	35.2	25.9	WestVirginia
10/17	#47 GeorgiaTech	H	#38 Pittsburgh	52%	2.5	0.6	28.5	27.9	Pittsburgh
10/17	#17 Mississippi	V	#49 Memphis	67%	10.5	6.4	34.1	27.8	Memphis
10/17	#62 Minnesota	H	#51 Nebraska	51%	0.0	0.2	24.5	24.2	Minnesota
10/17	#45 Miami	H	#46 VirginiaTech	58%	6.5	3.1	27.7	24.7	VirginiaTech
10/17	#11 Utah	H	#37 ArizonaState	78%	7.0	11.4	33.0	21.6	Utah
10/17	#4 OhioState	H	#33 PennState	82%	17.5	13.5	31.1	17.6	PennState
10/15	#42 Auburn	V	#63 Kentucky	56%	2.0	2.2	28.0	25.8	Auburn
10/17	#34 Washington	H	#52 Oregon	67%	1.5	6.4	31.7	25.3	Washington
10/16	#5 BoiseState	V	#59 UtahState	79%	9.5	12.3	31.0	18.7	BoiseState
10/17	#21 Georgia	H	#53 Missouri	76%	16.0	10.6	29.9	19.3	Missouri
10/17	#7 FloridaState	H	#48 Louisville	84%	7.0	15.3	33.3	18.0	FloridaState
10/17	#30 MississippiState	H	#60 LouisianaTech	73%	14.0	8.9	30.7	21.7	LouisianaTech
10/16	#29 BYU	H	#65 Cincinnati	77%	~	11.1	36.5	25.4	~
10/17	#84 Virginia	H	#72 Syracuse	49%	8.0	-0.5	27.6	28.1	Syracuse
10/17	#70 SouthCarolina	H	#75 Vanderbilt	62%	5.5	4.3	24.9	20.5	Vanderbilt
10/17	#91 SanJoseState	H	#79 SanDiegoState	49%	2.0	-0.4	26.1	26.5	SanDiegoState
10/17	#6 Clemson	H	#67 BostonCollege	90%	16.5	20.0	30.5	10.5	Clemson
10/17	#8 TCU	V	#76 IowaState	88%	21.0	17.9	39.5	21.6	IowaState
10/17	#50 Arizona	V	#89 Colorado	71%	8.0	8.3	34.4	26.1	Arizona
10/17	#69 WashingtonState	H	#80 OregonState	67%	8.0	6.5	30.2	23.7	OregonState
10/17	#61 EastCarolina	H	#78 Tulsa	74%	9.5	9.4	38.0	28.6	Tulsa
10/17	#85 Connecticut	H	#86 SouthFlorida	58%	2.5	3.1	24.1	21.0	Connecticut
10/17	#71 AirForce	V	#98 ColoradoState	61%	1.0	4.2	29.5	25.2	AirForce
10/17	#66 Indiana	H	#83 Rutgers	72%	~	8.7	34.5	25.8	~
10/17	#40 NorthCarolina	H	#81 WakeForest	83%	16.5	14.7	31.9	17.2	WakeForest
10/17	#88 CentralMichigan	H	#94 Buffalo	63%	7.0	4.8	28.0	23.2	Buffalo
10/13	#97 ArkansasState	V	#108 SouthAlabama	55%	6.0	2.0	30.0	28.0	SouthAlabama
10/17	#64 BowlingGreen	H	#93 Akron	79%	11.0	12.0	34.2	22.2	BowlingGreen
10/17	#77 MiddleTennessee	H	#99 FIU	72%	7.5	8.5	31.2	22.7	MiddleTennessee
10/17	#56 Ohio	H	#92 WesternMichigan	82%	3.5	14.0	34.5	20.4	Ohio
10/16	#101 UNLV	V	#112 FresnoState	55%	3.5	1.9	29.4	27.4	FresnoState
10/17	#58 AppalachianState	V	#106 LouisianaMonroe	80%	11.5	12.5	30.5	18.0	AppalachianState
10/17	#90 SouthernMississippi	H	#105 UTSA	70%	7.5	7.6	31.1	23.5	SouthernMississippi
10/17	#57 Marshall	V	#107 FloridaAtlantic	82%	7.0	13.6	32.9	19.3	Marshall
10/17	#109 Massachusetts	H	#111 KentState	60%	6.0	3.6	29.6	25.9	KentState
10/17	#20 Wisconsin	H	#102 Purdue	95%	19.5	26.7	38.7	11.9	Wisconsin
10/17	#103 NewMexico	H	#116 Hawaii	71%	5.5	8.0	30.1	22.1	NewMexico
10/16	#43 Houston	V	#114 Tulane	90%	17.5	19.6	39.6	20.0	Houston
10/17	#82 Nevada	V	#121 Wyoming	81%	7.0	13.2	33.9	20.7	Nevada
10/17	#113 Troy	H	#120 Idaho	70%	~	7.7	35.0	27.3	~
10/17	#41 TexasTech	V	#119 Kansas	93%	31.0	23.5	44.2	20.7	Kansas
10/17	#74 NorthernIllinois	V	#123 MiamiOH	85%	15.5	15.6	36.4	20.8	NorthernIllinois
10/17	#118 OldDominion	H	#126 Charlotte	70%	8.5	7.8	30.9	23.1	Charlotte
10/17	#27 Temple	H	#117 CentralFlorida	97%	21.5	30.2	40.6	10.4	Temple
10/17	#110 Army	V	Bucknell	74%	~	9.6	33.8	24.2	~
10/17	#95 BallState	H	#125 GeorgiaState	86%	16.5	16.8	39.0	22.2	BallState
10/15	#32 WesternKentucky	V	#127 NorthTexas	96%	31.0	29.6	45.8	16.2	NorthTexas
10/17	#73 GeorgiaSouthern	H	#128 NewMexicoState	94%	27.0	25.3	44.1	18.7	NewMexicoState
10/17	#35 Toledo	H	#124 EasternMichigan	97%	29.0	33.3	46.8	13.5	Toledo

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