FanPost

Hoegher's 2015 Rankings: WEEK NINE

I don't know what Randy Edsall did last year, but Stefon Diggs is great. GO VIKINGS.

scores and stats gather from the resources at Sports-Reference and CFBStats.

THE RANKINGS

A more complete listing can be found at the Dropbox link here: [LINK]. An imperfect explainer on what goes into these ratings can be found here: [LINK].

Team Conf Record Prj Rec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Rat Chg rk
Clemson ACC 7-0 12-0 1.24 1 3 1.71 2 0.58 11 1.84 4 0.32 1
BowlingGreen MAC 6-2 9-3 0.58 23 47 1.54 3 0.93 64 0.63 39 0.29 2
Troy Sun 2-5 4-8 -0.51 103 114 0.76 101 1.09 88 -1.22 114 0.21 3
Buffalo MAC 3-4 6-6 -0.28 89 100 0.88 85 1.07 81 -0.65 93 0.20 4
AppalachianState Sun 6-1 11-1 0.58 24 36 1.11 50 0.55 7 0.46 45 0.18 5
Memphis Amer 7-0 11-1 0.66 21 27 1.48 7 0.99 74 1.50 10 0.18 6
SanDiegoState MWC 5-3 8-4 0.13 62 75 0.88 86 0.76 33 0.12 63 0.18 7
GeorgiaTech ACC 3-5 5-7 0.38 40 57 1.35 16 0.85 52 -0.01 70 0.16 8
MississippiState SEC 6-2 8-4 0.67 20 25 1.17 40 0.63 15 1.08 21 0.16 9
SouthernMississippi CUSA 5-3 8-4 0.01 70 82 1.02 59 0.96 69 -0.16 77 0.15 10
USC P12 4-3 8-4 0.80 13 17 1.43 11 0.66 19 0.90 29 0.15 11
LouisianaTech CUSA 5-3 8-4 0.19 56 65 1.17 39 0.95 66 0.05 66 0.14 12
Massachusetts MAC 1-6 4-8 -0.46 101 108 1.03 58 1.37 114 -1.07 111 0.14 13
Idaho Sun 3-4 5-7 -0.64 110 119 0.77 100 1.39 118 -0.82 100 0.13 14
Northwestern B10 6-2 8-4 0.46 37 43 0.80 95 0.59 12 1.37 14 0.13 15
Maryland B10 2-5 3-9 -0.05 76 84 1.09 52 1.08 84 -0.28 82 0.12 16
FIU CUSA 4-4 6-6 -0.32 92 98 0.78 97 0.93 63 -0.99 110 0.12 17
Temple Amer 7-0 10-2 0.52 32 35 1.00 66 0.64 17 1.05 22 0.11 18
CentralMichigan MAC 4-4 7-5 0.10 64 71 0.93 73 0.80 41 -0.03 71 0.11 19
SouthFlorida Amer 4-3 6-6 0.03 69 80 0.91 76 0.85 50 -0.10 74 0.11 20
Houston Amer 7-0 11-1 0.52 31 34 1.29 24 0.83 46 0.80 30 0.11 21
Mississippi SEC 6-2 8-4 0.67 19 21 1.33 18 0.74 31 1.01 24 0.11 22
Vanderbilt SEC 3-4 4-8 -0.09 81 85 0.62 118 0.64 16 -0.37 84 0.10 23
NotreDame Ind 6-1 10-2 0.86 9 13 1.44 10 0.73 29 1.53 9 0.10 24
LSU SEC 7-0 11-1 0.98 4 6 1.48 8 0.76 34 2.11 1 0.10 25

And the Big Ten in particular...

Team Conf Record Prj Rec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Rat Chg rk
Northwestern B10 6-2 8-4 0.46 37 43 0.80 95 0.59 12 1.37 14 0.13 15
Maryland B10 2-5 3-9 -0.05 76 84 1.09 52 1.08 84 -0.28 82 0.12 16
OhioState B10 8-0 11-1 1.06 3 2 1.34 17 0.50 5 1.76 5 0.09 30
Wisconsin B10 6-2 9-3 0.72 17 18 0.94 72 0.35 1 0.68 35 0.08 34
Purdue B10 1-6 2-10 -0.37 95 97 0.95 70 1.21 100 -0.90 107 0.06 40
PennState B10 6-2 7-5 0.33 44 49 0.87 88 0.71 26 1.00 26 0.06 41
MichiganState B10 8-0 11-1 0.79 14 15 1.24 35 0.74 30 1.91 2 0.04 46
Iowa B10 7-0 11-1 0.87 8 11 1.29 26 0.67 20 1.87 3 0.04 53
Indiana B10 4-4 5-7 0.05 67 67 1.31 22 1.32 111 0.29 50 0.02 58
Michigan B10 5-2 9-3 0.94 6 4 1.14 46 0.39 2 1.20 18 0.02 61
Nebraska B10 3-5 5-7 0.32 46 42 1.38 15 0.93 65 -0.13 75 -0.04 89
Minnesota B10 4-3 5-7 -0.05 74 69 0.72 106 0.84 48 0.33 48 -0.04 90
Illinois B10 4-3 6-6 0.23 53 48 1.00 67 0.75 32 0.14 60 -0.05 97
Rutgers B10 3-4 5-7 -0.19 85 78 0.90 77 1.17 94 0.13 61 -0.10 117

The sort order of the week is rating change from the previous weeks. Turns out pitching a 58-0 shutout is going to do good things for your rating.

Okay, we need to talk about Nebraska. I'm finding their current futility in close games fascinating. By my "close game luck" metric (grains of salt and all the jazz), they are ludicrously unlucky at -2.3 wins below expected, easily the worst in the country (Army is #128 at -1.50 wins). I checked to see how this was (maybe we're in all-time record territory), disappointingly the -2.3 wins is not that unusual. 2013 Temple went 0-6 in close games for -2.4 wins below expected.

However, we're still only on week nine, and limiting our search to that point in the season Nebraska sits in some pretty exclusive company. Through Week Nine, Nebraska has the worst close game luck since 1969 Virginia Tech (0-5 in close games for -2.7 wins below expected). There are also several generic FCS teams that qualify, but those don't really count.

I plan on continuing to track the Nebraska Misery Index (TM) for the rest of the season (or such a time where Mike Riley wins a couple to reduce the fun of this).

NEBRASKA MISERY INDEX: -2.3 wins, worst since 1969 Virginia Tech (Wk09, -2.7 wins)

OVER/UNDER-RATED TEAMS OF THE WEEK

Seriously, USC is better than their current unranked status. There's a reason they were favored against Utah.

Team Conf Record Prj Rec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk AP Diff rk
Baylor B12 7-0 10-2 0.84 10 5 1.71 1 0.91 59 1.28 15 0.41 2
OhioState B10 8-0 11-1 1.06 3 2 1.34 17 0.50 5 1.76 5 0.30 1
TCU B12 7-0 10-2 0.75 15 12 1.53 4 0.92 62 1.55 8 0.26 5
MichiganState B10 8-0 11-1 0.79 14 15 1.24 35 0.74 30 1.91 2 0.19 6
Toledo MAC 7-0 10-1 0.45 38 31 1.01 61 0.72 28 1.03 23 0.17 20
Team Conf Record Prj Rec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk AP Diff rk
USC P12 4-3 8-4 0.80 13 17 1.43 11 0.66 19 0.90 29 -0.26 ~
Oklahoma B12 6-1 10-2 0.96 5 8 1.44 9 0.60 13 1.40 12 -0.22 14
Michigan B10 5-2 9-3 0.94 6 4 1.14 46 0.39 2 1.20 18 -0.21 15
Alabama SEC 7-1 10-2 1.15 2 1 1.49 6 0.51 6 1.74 6 -0.21 7
Wisconsin B10 6-2 9-3 0.72 17 18 0.94 72 0.35 1 0.68 35 -0.19 ~

CURRENT QUESTS FOR PERFECTION

The biggest surprise here is the low odds on North Texas. Their schedule must be terrible.

Team Conf Record Prj Rec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Perf L rk
Kansas B12 0-7 0-12 -0.82 120 117 0.55 123 1.23 104 -1.24 117 0.75 1
CentralFlorida Amer 0-8 0-12 -1.03 125 122 0.57 122 1.38 116 -1.88 127 0.72 2
NewMexicoState Sun 0-7 1-11 -1.23 129 126 0.73 105 1.82 128 -2.12 129 0.43 3
NorthTexas CUSA 0-7 1-11 -0.96 123 123 0.66 113 1.48 123 -1.61 123 0.24 4

WEEKLY WORST WATCH

Kansas is terrible, but not quite bad enough to get into 2012 CoLOLrado territory, unfortunately. They would be the worst power conference team since that wonderful Buffalo squad, though.

Team Conf Record Prj Rec Tot Rat rk LW Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Res Rat rk Prj SOS rk
Kansas B12 0-7 0-12 -0.82 120 117 0.55 123 1.23 104 -1.24 117 0.39 5
Purdue B10 1-6 2-10 -0.37 95 97 0.95 70 1.21 100 -0.90 107 0.34 12
OregonState P12 2-5 3-9 -0.34 94 88 0.77 99 1.03 78 -0.67 94 0.31 19
WakeForest ACC 3-5 3-9 -0.30 90 87 0.64 117 0.80 42 -0.75 96 0.30 22
Colorado P12 4-4 5-8 -0.22 87 89 0.81 94 0.96 68 -0.48 87 0.13 56

THE PICKINGS

I went 22-31-0 last week. Currently 202-207-7 (49.4%) on the year.

Best prediction: Nevada over Hawaii by 9.9 pts (actual MOV: 10 pts)

Worst prediction: Clemson over Miami by 9.4 pts (actual MOV: 58 pts)

Currently #26 out of 66 at PredictionTracker (by mean square error)

Lines taken from 5Dimes here. SU picks in bold.

Date Overcat H/V Underdog WLk Line Hoegh Prj Score Pk vs Veg
10/31 #9 NotreDame V #32 Temple 62% 10.5 4.4 29.1 24.7 Temple
10/31 #13 USC V #36 California 61% 5.0 4.1 33.8 29.7 California
10/29 #29 NorthCarolina V #33 Pittsburgh 44% 1.5 -2.0 26.6 28.6 Pittsburgh
10/31 #7 Florida N #30 Georgia 70% 3.5 7.6 31.5 23.8 Florida
10/29 #15 TCU H #27 WestVirginia 69% 13.5 7.5 34.8 27.4 WestVirginia
10/31 #18 OklahomaState V #45 TexasTech 63% 3.0 4.8 36.4 31.6 OklahomaState
10/29 #49 ArizonaState H #41 Oregon 53% 2.0 1.2 31.8 30.6 Oregon
10/31 #19 Mississippi V #51 Auburn 65% 6.0 5.8 31.1 25.3 Auburn
10/31 #1 Clemson V #43 NorthCarolinaState 86% 10.5 16.7 38.2 21.5 Clemson
10/31 #52 VirginiaTech V #66 BostonCollege 51% 2.0 0.3 21.2 20.9 BostonCollege
10/31 #11 Stanford V #57 WashingtonState 77% 13.0 10.9 35.4 24.6 WashingtonState
10/31 #44 PennState H #53 Illinois 64% 6.0 5.1 26.1 21.0 Illinois
10/31 #28 Duke H #54 Miami 76% ~ 10.5 29.9 19.4 ~
10/31 #50 Washington H #63 Arizona 66% ~ 6.0 30.9 24.9 ~
10/31 #58 Texas V #78 IowaState 57% 8.0 2.5 26.4 23.8 IowaState
10/31 #35 Tennessee V #72 Kentucky 70% 7.0 7.9 32.6 24.7 Tennessee
10/31 #39 Navy H #69 SouthFlorida 77% 10.0 10.8 31.9 21.1 Navy
10/31 #6 Michigan V #74 Minnesota 88% 14.0 18.3 31.0 12.7 Michigan
10/31 #40 GeorgiaTech V #86 Virginia 73% 3.5 9.2 33.6 24.4 GeorgiaTech
10/31 #62 SanDiegoState V #91 ColoradoState 67% 3.5 6.4 29.1 22.8 SanDiegoState
10/30 #47 Louisville V #90 WakeForest 74% 10.0 9.7 28.4 18.7 WakeForest
10/31 #31 Houston H #81 Vanderbilt 85% 14.0 16.1 31.9 15.8 Houston
10/30 #59 EastCarolina V #93 Connecticut 69% 7.5 7.4 29.9 22.5 Connecticut
10/31 #26 TexasAM H #80 SouthCarolina 87% 16.0 17.1 37.1 20.0 TexasAM
10/31 #16 FloridaState H #77 Syracuse 90% 21.0 20.0 37.1 17.1 Syracuse
10/31 #8 Iowa H #76 Maryland 93% 16.5 23.0 40.6 17.7 Iowa
10/31 #64 CentralMichigan V #97 Akron 71% 4.0 8.1 26.9 18.8 CentralMichigan
10/31 #46 Nebraska V #95 Purdue 78% 9.5 11.8 37.4 25.7 Nebraska
10/31 #83 Tulsa V #102 SMU 61% 3.0 4.2 34.5 30.3 Tulsa
10/30 #56 LouisianaTech V #99 Rice 76% 10.0 10.6 36.3 25.8 LouisianaTech
10/31 #17 Wisconsin H #85 Rutgers 92% 19.0 22.3 34.9 12.6 Wisconsin
10/31 #22 UCLA H #87 Colorado 91% 18.5 21.2 37.6 16.4 UCLA
10/31 #105 BallState H #101 Massachusetts 54% 3.5 1.5 32.9 31.4 Massachusetts
10/31 #25 BoiseState V #104 UNLV 90% 20.0 20.3 36.6 16.3 BoiseState
10/31 #92 FIU V #115 FloridaAtlantic 66% 3.0 6.1 28.3 22.2 FIU
10/31 #12 Utah H #94 OregonState 95% 22.5 27.7 40.5 12.8 Utah
10/29 #73 GeorgiaSouthern H #106 TexasState 83% 19.0 14.2 39.4 25.2 TexasState
10/31 #75 AirForce V #118 Hawaii 80% 7.5 12.6 31.6 19.0 AirForce
10/31 #100 LouisianaLafayette H #112 LouisianaMonroe 71% 10.0 8.2 31.8 23.6 LouisianaMonroe
10/31 #24 AppalachianState H #103 Troy 95% 24.0 26.5 38.0 11.6 AppalachianState
10/31 #107 UTSA V #123 NorthTexas 65% ~ 5.5 30.2 24.7 ~
10/31 #88 ArkansasState H #119 GeorgiaState 84% 20.0 14.9 38.6 23.7 GeorgiaState
10/31 #42 WesternKentucky V #121 OldDominion 93% 23.0 23.2 42.1 18.9 WesternKentucky
10/30 #55 UtahState H #117 Wyoming 93% ~ 23.2 39.1 15.9 ~
10/29 #68 WesternMichigan V #124 EasternMichigan 90% 21.0 19.7 45.4 25.8 EasternMichigan
10/31 #5 Oklahoma V #120 Kansas 98% 37.5 35.4 44.6 9.2 Kansas
10/29 #89 Buffalo V #126 MiamiOH 83% 9.0 14.4 34.1 19.7 Buffalo
10/31 #21 Memphis H #116 Tulane 98% 28.0 33.5 48.5 15.0 Memphis
10/31 #70 SouthernMississippi H #122 UTEP 92% 19.5 22.8 40.7 17.9 SouthernMississippi
10/31 #110 Idaho V #129 NewMexicoState 74% 4.0 9.7 38.0 28.3 Idaho
10/31 #65 Marshall V #127 Charlotte 93% 21.0 23.1 37.7 14.6 Marshall
10/31 #61 Cincinnati H #125 CentralFlorida 95% 22.0 27.6 44.7 17.1 Cincinnati
10/31 #48 Arkansas H #127 Tennessee-Martin 97% ~ 32.8 42.2 9.5 ~