Hoegher's 2015 Rankings: WEEK NINE

I don't know what Randy Edsall did last year, but Stefon Diggs is great. GO VIKINGS.

scores and stats gather from the resources at Sports-Reference and CFBStats.

THE RANKINGS

A more complete listing can be found at the Dropbox link here: [LINK]. An imperfect explainer on what goes into these ratings can be found here: [LINK].

Team	Conf	Record	Prj Rec	Tot Rat	rk	LW	Adj Off	rk	Adj Def	rk	Res Rat	rk	Rat Chg	rk
Clemson	ACC	7-0	12-0	1.24	1	3	1.71	2	0.58	11	1.84	4	0.32	1
BowlingGreen	MAC	6-2	9-3	0.58	23	47	1.54	3	0.93	64	0.63	39	0.29	2
Troy	Sun	2-5	4-8	-0.51	103	114	0.76	101	1.09	88	-1.22	114	0.21	3
Buffalo	MAC	3-4	6-6	-0.28	89	100	0.88	85	1.07	81	-0.65	93	0.20	4
AppalachianState	Sun	6-1	11-1	0.58	24	36	1.11	50	0.55	7	0.46	45	0.18	5
Memphis	Amer	7-0	11-1	0.66	21	27	1.48	7	0.99	74	1.50	10	0.18	6
SanDiegoState	MWC	5-3	8-4	0.13	62	75	0.88	86	0.76	33	0.12	63	0.18	7
GeorgiaTech	ACC	3-5	5-7	0.38	40	57	1.35	16	0.85	52	-0.01	70	0.16	8
MississippiState	SEC	6-2	8-4	0.67	20	25	1.17	40	0.63	15	1.08	21	0.16	9
SouthernMississippi	CUSA	5-3	8-4	0.01	70	82	1.02	59	0.96	69	-0.16	77	0.15	10
USC	P12	4-3	8-4	0.80	13	17	1.43	11	0.66	19	0.90	29	0.15	11
LouisianaTech	CUSA	5-3	8-4	0.19	56	65	1.17	39	0.95	66	0.05	66	0.14	12
Massachusetts	MAC	1-6	4-8	-0.46	101	108	1.03	58	1.37	114	-1.07	111	0.14	13
Idaho	Sun	3-4	5-7	-0.64	110	119	0.77	100	1.39	118	-0.82	100	0.13	14
Northwestern	B10	6-2	8-4	0.46	37	43	0.80	95	0.59	12	1.37	14	0.13	15
Maryland	B10	2-5	3-9	-0.05	76	84	1.09	52	1.08	84	-0.28	82	0.12	16
FIU	CUSA	4-4	6-6	-0.32	92	98	0.78	97	0.93	63	-0.99	110	0.12	17
Temple	Amer	7-0	10-2	0.52	32	35	1.00	66	0.64	17	1.05	22	0.11	18
CentralMichigan	MAC	4-4	7-5	0.10	64	71	0.93	73	0.80	41	-0.03	71	0.11	19
SouthFlorida	Amer	4-3	6-6	0.03	69	80	0.91	76	0.85	50	-0.10	74	0.11	20
Houston	Amer	7-0	11-1	0.52	31	34	1.29	24	0.83	46	0.80	30	0.11	21
Mississippi	SEC	6-2	8-4	0.67	19	21	1.33	18	0.74	31	1.01	24	0.11	22
Vanderbilt	SEC	3-4	4-8	-0.09	81	85	0.62	118	0.64	16	-0.37	84	0.10	23
NotreDame	Ind	6-1	10-2	0.86	9	13	1.44	10	0.73	29	1.53	9	0.10	24
LSU	SEC	7-0	11-1	0.98	4	6	1.48	8	0.76	34	2.11	1	0.10	25

And the Big Ten in particular...

Team	Conf	Record	Prj Rec	Tot Rat	rk	LW	Adj Off	rk	Adj Def	rk	Res Rat	rk	Rat Chg	rk
Northwestern	B10	6-2	8-4	0.46	37	43	0.80	95	0.59	12	1.37	14	0.13	15
Maryland	B10	2-5	3-9	-0.05	76	84	1.09	52	1.08	84	-0.28	82	0.12	16
OhioState	B10	8-0	11-1	1.06	3	2	1.34	17	0.50	5	1.76	5	0.09	30
Wisconsin	B10	6-2	9-3	0.72	17	18	0.94	72	0.35	1	0.68	35	0.08	34
Purdue	B10	1-6	2-10	-0.37	95	97	0.95	70	1.21	100	-0.90	107	0.06	40
PennState	B10	6-2	7-5	0.33	44	49	0.87	88	0.71	26	1.00	26	0.06	41
MichiganState	B10	8-0	11-1	0.79	14	15	1.24	35	0.74	30	1.91	2	0.04	46
Iowa	B10	7-0	11-1	0.87	8	11	1.29	26	0.67	20	1.87	3	0.04	53
Indiana	B10	4-4	5-7	0.05	67	67	1.31	22	1.32	111	0.29	50	0.02	58
Michigan	B10	5-2	9-3	0.94	6	4	1.14	46	0.39	2	1.20	18	0.02	61
Nebraska	B10	3-5	5-7	0.32	46	42	1.38	15	0.93	65	-0.13	75	-0.04	89
Minnesota	B10	4-3	5-7	-0.05	74	69	0.72	106	0.84	48	0.33	48	-0.04	90
Illinois	B10	4-3	6-6	0.23	53	48	1.00	67	0.75	32	0.14	60	-0.05	97
Rutgers	B10	3-4	5-7	-0.19	85	78	0.90	77	1.17	94	0.13	61	-0.10	117

The sort order of the week is rating change from the previous weeks. Turns out pitching a 58-0 shutout is going to do good things for your rating.

Okay, we need to talk about Nebraska. I'm finding their current futility in close games fascinating. By my "close game luck" metric (grains of salt and all the jazz), they are ludicrously unlucky at -2.3 wins below expected, easily the worst in the country (Army is #128 at -1.50 wins). I checked to see how this was (maybe we're in all-time record territory), disappointingly the -2.3 wins is not that unusual. 2013 Temple went 0-6 in close games for -2.4 wins below expected.

However, we're still only on week nine, and limiting our search to that point in the season Nebraska sits in some pretty exclusive company. Through Week Nine, Nebraska has the worst close game luck since 1969 Virginia Tech (0-5 in close games for -2.7 wins below expected). There are also several generic FCS teams that qualify, but those don't really count.

I plan on continuing to track the Nebraska Misery Index (TM) for the rest of the season (or such a time where Mike Riley wins a couple to reduce the fun of this).

NEBRASKA MISERY INDEX: -2.3 wins, worst since 1969 Virginia Tech (Wk09, -2.7 wins)

OVER/UNDER-RATED TEAMS OF THE WEEK

Seriously, USC is better than their current unranked status. There's a reason they were favored against Utah.

Team	Conf	Record	Prj Rec	Tot Rat	rk	LW	Adj Off	rk	Adj Def	rk	Res Rat	rk	AP Diff	rk
Baylor	B12	7-0	10-2	0.84	10	5	1.71	1	0.91	59	1.28	15	0.41	2
OhioState	B10	8-0	11-1	1.06	3	2	1.34	17	0.50	5	1.76	5	0.30	1
TCU	B12	7-0	10-2	0.75	15	12	1.53	4	0.92	62	1.55	8	0.26	5
MichiganState	B10	8-0	11-1	0.79	14	15	1.24	35	0.74	30	1.91	2	0.19	6
Toledo	MAC	7-0	10-1	0.45	38	31	1.01	61	0.72	28	1.03	23	0.17	20

Team	Conf	Record	Prj Rec	Tot Rat	rk	LW	Adj Off	rk	Adj Def	rk	Res Rat	rk	AP Diff	rk
USC	P12	4-3	8-4	0.80	13	17	1.43	11	0.66	19	0.90	29	-0.26	~
Oklahoma	B12	6-1	10-2	0.96	5	8	1.44	9	0.60	13	1.40	12	-0.22	14
Michigan	B10	5-2	9-3	0.94	6	4	1.14	46	0.39	2	1.20	18	-0.21	15
Alabama	SEC	7-1	10-2	1.15	2	1	1.49	6	0.51	6	1.74	6	-0.21	7
Wisconsin	B10	6-2	9-3	0.72	17	18	0.94	72	0.35	1	0.68	35	-0.19	~

CURRENT QUESTS FOR PERFECTION

The biggest surprise here is the low odds on North Texas. Their schedule must be terrible.

Team	Conf	Record	Prj Rec	Tot Rat	rk	LW	Adj Off	rk	Adj Def	rk	Res Rat	rk	Perf L	rk
Kansas	B12	0-7	0-12	-0.82	120	117	0.55	123	1.23	104	-1.24	117	0.75	1
CentralFlorida	Amer	0-8	0-12	-1.03	125	122	0.57	122	1.38	116	-1.88	127	0.72	2
NewMexicoState	Sun	0-7	1-11	-1.23	129	126	0.73	105	1.82	128	-2.12	129	0.43	3
NorthTexas	CUSA	0-7	1-11	-0.96	123	123	0.66	113	1.48	123	-1.61	123	0.24	4

WEEKLY WORST WATCH

Kansas is terrible, but not quite bad enough to get into 2012 CoLOLrado territory, unfortunately. They would be the worst power conference team since that wonderful Buffalo squad, though.

Team	Conf	Record	Prj Rec	Tot Rat	rk	LW	Adj Off	rk	Adj Def	rk	Res Rat	rk	Prj SOS	rk
Kansas	B12	0-7	0-12	-0.82	120	117	0.55	123	1.23	104	-1.24	117	0.39	5
Purdue	B10	1-6	2-10	-0.37	95	97	0.95	70	1.21	100	-0.90	107	0.34	12
OregonState	P12	2-5	3-9	-0.34	94	88	0.77	99	1.03	78	-0.67	94	0.31	19
WakeForest	ACC	3-5	3-9	-0.30	90	87	0.64	117	0.80	42	-0.75	96	0.30	22
Colorado	P12	4-4	5-8	-0.22	87	89	0.81	94	0.96	68	-0.48	87	0.13	56

THE PICKINGS

I went 22-31-0 last week. Currently 202-207-7 (49.4%) on the year.

Best prediction: Nevada over Hawaii by 9.9 pts (actual MOV: 10 pts)

Worst prediction: Clemson over Miami by 9.4 pts (actual MOV: 58 pts)

Currently #26 out of 66 at PredictionTracker (by mean square error)

Lines taken from 5Dimes here. SU picks in bold.

Date	Overcat	H/V	Underdog	WLk	Line	Hoegh	Prj Score		Pk vs Veg
10/31	#9 NotreDame	V	#32 Temple	62%	10.5	4.4	29.1	24.7	Temple
10/31	#13 USC	V	#36 California	61%	5.0	4.1	33.8	29.7	California
10/29	#29 NorthCarolina	V	#33 Pittsburgh	44%	1.5	-2.0	26.6	28.6	Pittsburgh
10/31	#7 Florida	N	#30 Georgia	70%	3.5	7.6	31.5	23.8	Florida
10/29	#15 TCU	H	#27 WestVirginia	69%	13.5	7.5	34.8	27.4	WestVirginia
10/31	#18 OklahomaState	V	#45 TexasTech	63%	3.0	4.8	36.4	31.6	OklahomaState
10/29	#49 ArizonaState	H	#41 Oregon	53%	2.0	1.2	31.8	30.6	Oregon
10/31	#19 Mississippi	V	#51 Auburn	65%	6.0	5.8	31.1	25.3	Auburn
10/31	#1 Clemson	V	#43 NorthCarolinaState	86%	10.5	16.7	38.2	21.5	Clemson
10/31	#52 VirginiaTech	V	#66 BostonCollege	51%	2.0	0.3	21.2	20.9	BostonCollege
10/31	#11 Stanford	V	#57 WashingtonState	77%	13.0	10.9	35.4	24.6	WashingtonState
10/31	#44 PennState	H	#53 Illinois	64%	6.0	5.1	26.1	21.0	Illinois
10/31	#28 Duke	H	#54 Miami	76%	~	10.5	29.9	19.4	~
10/31	#50 Washington	H	#63 Arizona	66%	~	6.0	30.9	24.9	~
10/31	#58 Texas	V	#78 IowaState	57%	8.0	2.5	26.4	23.8	IowaState
10/31	#35 Tennessee	V	#72 Kentucky	70%	7.0	7.9	32.6	24.7	Tennessee
10/31	#39 Navy	H	#69 SouthFlorida	77%	10.0	10.8	31.9	21.1	Navy
10/31	#6 Michigan	V	#74 Minnesota	88%	14.0	18.3	31.0	12.7	Michigan
10/31	#40 GeorgiaTech	V	#86 Virginia	73%	3.5	9.2	33.6	24.4	GeorgiaTech
10/31	#62 SanDiegoState	V	#91 ColoradoState	67%	3.5	6.4	29.1	22.8	SanDiegoState
10/30	#47 Louisville	V	#90 WakeForest	74%	10.0	9.7	28.4	18.7	WakeForest
10/31	#31 Houston	H	#81 Vanderbilt	85%	14.0	16.1	31.9	15.8	Houston
10/30	#59 EastCarolina	V	#93 Connecticut	69%	7.5	7.4	29.9	22.5	Connecticut
10/31	#26 TexasAM	H	#80 SouthCarolina	87%	16.0	17.1	37.1	20.0	TexasAM
10/31	#16 FloridaState	H	#77 Syracuse	90%	21.0	20.0	37.1	17.1	Syracuse
10/31	#8 Iowa	H	#76 Maryland	93%	16.5	23.0	40.6	17.7	Iowa
10/31	#64 CentralMichigan	V	#97 Akron	71%	4.0	8.1	26.9	18.8	CentralMichigan
10/31	#46 Nebraska	V	#95 Purdue	78%	9.5	11.8	37.4	25.7	Nebraska
10/31	#83 Tulsa	V	#102 SMU	61%	3.0	4.2	34.5	30.3	Tulsa
10/30	#56 LouisianaTech	V	#99 Rice	76%	10.0	10.6	36.3	25.8	LouisianaTech
10/31	#17 Wisconsin	H	#85 Rutgers	92%	19.0	22.3	34.9	12.6	Wisconsin
10/31	#22 UCLA	H	#87 Colorado	91%	18.5	21.2	37.6	16.4	UCLA
10/31	#105 BallState	H	#101 Massachusetts	54%	3.5	1.5	32.9	31.4	Massachusetts
10/31	#25 BoiseState	V	#104 UNLV	90%	20.0	20.3	36.6	16.3	BoiseState
10/31	#92 FIU	V	#115 FloridaAtlantic	66%	3.0	6.1	28.3	22.2	FIU
10/31	#12 Utah	H	#94 OregonState	95%	22.5	27.7	40.5	12.8	Utah
10/29	#73 GeorgiaSouthern	H	#106 TexasState	83%	19.0	14.2	39.4	25.2	TexasState
10/31	#75 AirForce	V	#118 Hawaii	80%	7.5	12.6	31.6	19.0	AirForce
10/31	#100 LouisianaLafayette	H	#112 LouisianaMonroe	71%	10.0	8.2	31.8	23.6	LouisianaMonroe
10/31	#24 AppalachianState	H	#103 Troy	95%	24.0	26.5	38.0	11.6	AppalachianState
10/31	#107 UTSA	V	#123 NorthTexas	65%	~	5.5	30.2	24.7	~
10/31	#88 ArkansasState	H	#119 GeorgiaState	84%	20.0	14.9	38.6	23.7	GeorgiaState
10/31	#42 WesternKentucky	V	#121 OldDominion	93%	23.0	23.2	42.1	18.9	WesternKentucky
10/30	#55 UtahState	H	#117 Wyoming	93%	~	23.2	39.1	15.9	~
10/29	#68 WesternMichigan	V	#124 EasternMichigan	90%	21.0	19.7	45.4	25.8	EasternMichigan
10/31	#5 Oklahoma	V	#120 Kansas	98%	37.5	35.4	44.6	9.2	Kansas
10/29	#89 Buffalo	V	#126 MiamiOH	83%	9.0	14.4	34.1	19.7	Buffalo
10/31	#21 Memphis	H	#116 Tulane	98%	28.0	33.5	48.5	15.0	Memphis
10/31	#70 SouthernMississippi	H	#122 UTEP	92%	19.5	22.8	40.7	17.9	SouthernMississippi
10/31	#110 Idaho	V	#129 NewMexicoState	74%	4.0	9.7	38.0	28.3	Idaho
10/31	#65 Marshall	V	#127 Charlotte	93%	21.0	23.1	37.7	14.6	Marshall
10/31	#61 Cincinnati	H	#125 CentralFlorida	95%	22.0	27.6	44.7	17.1	Cincinnati
10/31	#48 Arkansas	H	#127 Tennessee-Martin	97%	~	32.8	42.2	9.5	~

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