I don't know what Randy Edsall did last year, but Stefon Diggs is great. GO VIKINGS.
scores and stats gather from the resources at Sports-Reference and CFBStats.
THE RANKINGS
A more complete listing can be found at the Dropbox link here: [LINK]. An imperfect explainer on what goes into these ratings can be found here: [LINK].
Team | Conf | Record | Prj Rec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Rat Chg | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Clemson | ACC | 7-0 | 12-0 | 1.24 | 1 | 3 | 1.71 | 2 | 0.58 | 11 | 1.84 | 4 | 0.32 | 1 |
BowlingGreen | MAC | 6-2 | 9-3 | 0.58 | 23 | 47 | 1.54 | 3 | 0.93 | 64 | 0.63 | 39 | 0.29 | 2 |
Troy | Sun | 2-5 | 4-8 | -0.51 | 103 | 114 | 0.76 | 101 | 1.09 | 88 | -1.22 | 114 | 0.21 | 3 |
Buffalo | MAC | 3-4 | 6-6 | -0.28 | 89 | 100 | 0.88 | 85 | 1.07 | 81 | -0.65 | 93 | 0.20 | 4 |
AppalachianState | Sun | 6-1 | 11-1 | 0.58 | 24 | 36 | 1.11 | 50 | 0.55 | 7 | 0.46 | 45 | 0.18 | 5 |
Memphis | Amer | 7-0 | 11-1 | 0.66 | 21 | 27 | 1.48 | 7 | 0.99 | 74 | 1.50 | 10 | 0.18 | 6 |
SanDiegoState | MWC | 5-3 | 8-4 | 0.13 | 62 | 75 | 0.88 | 86 | 0.76 | 33 | 0.12 | 63 | 0.18 | 7 |
GeorgiaTech | ACC | 3-5 | 5-7 | 0.38 | 40 | 57 | 1.35 | 16 | 0.85 | 52 | -0.01 | 70 | 0.16 | 8 |
MississippiState | SEC | 6-2 | 8-4 | 0.67 | 20 | 25 | 1.17 | 40 | 0.63 | 15 | 1.08 | 21 | 0.16 | 9 |
SouthernMississippi | CUSA | 5-3 | 8-4 | 0.01 | 70 | 82 | 1.02 | 59 | 0.96 | 69 | -0.16 | 77 | 0.15 | 10 |
USC | P12 | 4-3 | 8-4 | 0.80 | 13 | 17 | 1.43 | 11 | 0.66 | 19 | 0.90 | 29 | 0.15 | 11 |
LouisianaTech | CUSA | 5-3 | 8-4 | 0.19 | 56 | 65 | 1.17 | 39 | 0.95 | 66 | 0.05 | 66 | 0.14 | 12 |
Massachusetts | MAC | 1-6 | 4-8 | -0.46 | 101 | 108 | 1.03 | 58 | 1.37 | 114 | -1.07 | 111 | 0.14 | 13 |
Idaho | Sun | 3-4 | 5-7 | -0.64 | 110 | 119 | 0.77 | 100 | 1.39 | 118 | -0.82 | 100 | 0.13 | 14 |
Northwestern | B10 | 6-2 | 8-4 | 0.46 | 37 | 43 | 0.80 | 95 | 0.59 | 12 | 1.37 | 14 | 0.13 | 15 |
Maryland | B10 | 2-5 | 3-9 | -0.05 | 76 | 84 | 1.09 | 52 | 1.08 | 84 | -0.28 | 82 | 0.12 | 16 |
FIU | CUSA | 4-4 | 6-6 | -0.32 | 92 | 98 | 0.78 | 97 | 0.93 | 63 | -0.99 | 110 | 0.12 | 17 |
Temple | Amer | 7-0 | 10-2 | 0.52 | 32 | 35 | 1.00 | 66 | 0.64 | 17 | 1.05 | 22 | 0.11 | 18 |
CentralMichigan | MAC | 4-4 | 7-5 | 0.10 | 64 | 71 | 0.93 | 73 | 0.80 | 41 | -0.03 | 71 | 0.11 | 19 |
SouthFlorida | Amer | 4-3 | 6-6 | 0.03 | 69 | 80 | 0.91 | 76 | 0.85 | 50 | -0.10 | 74 | 0.11 | 20 |
Houston | Amer | 7-0 | 11-1 | 0.52 | 31 | 34 | 1.29 | 24 | 0.83 | 46 | 0.80 | 30 | 0.11 | 21 |
Mississippi | SEC | 6-2 | 8-4 | 0.67 | 19 | 21 | 1.33 | 18 | 0.74 | 31 | 1.01 | 24 | 0.11 | 22 |
Vanderbilt | SEC | 3-4 | 4-8 | -0.09 | 81 | 85 | 0.62 | 118 | 0.64 | 16 | -0.37 | 84 | 0.10 | 23 |
NotreDame | Ind | 6-1 | 10-2 | 0.86 | 9 | 13 | 1.44 | 10 | 0.73 | 29 | 1.53 | 9 | 0.10 | 24 |
LSU | SEC | 7-0 | 11-1 | 0.98 | 4 | 6 | 1.48 | 8 | 0.76 | 34 | 2.11 | 1 | 0.10 | 25 |
And the Big Ten in particular...
Team | Conf | Record | Prj Rec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Rat Chg | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Northwestern | B10 | 6-2 | 8-4 | 0.46 | 37 | 43 | 0.80 | 95 | 0.59 | 12 | 1.37 | 14 | 0.13 | 15 |
Maryland | B10 | 2-5 | 3-9 | -0.05 | 76 | 84 | 1.09 | 52 | 1.08 | 84 | -0.28 | 82 | 0.12 | 16 |
OhioState | B10 | 8-0 | 11-1 | 1.06 | 3 | 2 | 1.34 | 17 | 0.50 | 5 | 1.76 | 5 | 0.09 | 30 |
Wisconsin | B10 | 6-2 | 9-3 | 0.72 | 17 | 18 | 0.94 | 72 | 0.35 | 1 | 0.68 | 35 | 0.08 | 34 |
Purdue | B10 | 1-6 | 2-10 | -0.37 | 95 | 97 | 0.95 | 70 | 1.21 | 100 | -0.90 | 107 | 0.06 | 40 |
PennState | B10 | 6-2 | 7-5 | 0.33 | 44 | 49 | 0.87 | 88 | 0.71 | 26 | 1.00 | 26 | 0.06 | 41 |
MichiganState | B10 | 8-0 | 11-1 | 0.79 | 14 | 15 | 1.24 | 35 | 0.74 | 30 | 1.91 | 2 | 0.04 | 46 |
Iowa | B10 | 7-0 | 11-1 | 0.87 | 8 | 11 | 1.29 | 26 | 0.67 | 20 | 1.87 | 3 | 0.04 | 53 |
Indiana | B10 | 4-4 | 5-7 | 0.05 | 67 | 67 | 1.31 | 22 | 1.32 | 111 | 0.29 | 50 | 0.02 | 58 |
Michigan | B10 | 5-2 | 9-3 | 0.94 | 6 | 4 | 1.14 | 46 | 0.39 | 2 | 1.20 | 18 | 0.02 | 61 |
Nebraska | B10 | 3-5 | 5-7 | 0.32 | 46 | 42 | 1.38 | 15 | 0.93 | 65 | -0.13 | 75 | -0.04 | 89 |
Minnesota | B10 | 4-3 | 5-7 | -0.05 | 74 | 69 | 0.72 | 106 | 0.84 | 48 | 0.33 | 48 | -0.04 | 90 |
Illinois | B10 | 4-3 | 6-6 | 0.23 | 53 | 48 | 1.00 | 67 | 0.75 | 32 | 0.14 | 60 | -0.05 | 97 |
Rutgers | B10 | 3-4 | 5-7 | -0.19 | 85 | 78 | 0.90 | 77 | 1.17 | 94 | 0.13 | 61 | -0.10 | 117 |
The sort order of the week is rating change from the previous weeks. Turns out pitching a 58-0 shutout is going to do good things for your rating.
Okay, we need to talk about Nebraska. I'm finding their current futility in close games fascinating. By my "close game luck" metric (grains of salt and all the jazz), they are ludicrously unlucky at -2.3 wins below expected, easily the worst in the country (Army is #128 at -1.50 wins). I checked to see how this was (maybe we're in all-time record territory), disappointingly the -2.3 wins is not that unusual. 2013 Temple went 0-6 in close games for -2.4 wins below expected.
However, we're still only on week nine, and limiting our search to that point in the season Nebraska sits in some pretty exclusive company. Through Week Nine, Nebraska has the worst close game luck since 1969 Virginia Tech (0-5 in close games for -2.7 wins below expected). There are also several generic FCS teams that qualify, but those don't really count.
I plan on continuing to track the Nebraska Misery Index (TM) for the rest of the season (or such a time where Mike Riley wins a couple to reduce the fun of this).
NEBRASKA MISERY INDEX: -2.3 wins, worst since 1969 Virginia Tech (Wk09, -2.7 wins)
OVER/UNDER-RATED TEAMS OF THE WEEK
Seriously, USC is better than their current unranked status. There's a reason they were favored against Utah.
Team | Conf | Record | Prj Rec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | AP Diff | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Baylor | B12 | 7-0 | 10-2 | 0.84 | 10 | 5 | 1.71 | 1 | 0.91 | 59 | 1.28 | 15 | 0.41 | 2 |
OhioState | B10 | 8-0 | 11-1 | 1.06 | 3 | 2 | 1.34 | 17 | 0.50 | 5 | 1.76 | 5 | 0.30 | 1 |
TCU | B12 | 7-0 | 10-2 | 0.75 | 15 | 12 | 1.53 | 4 | 0.92 | 62 | 1.55 | 8 | 0.26 | 5 |
MichiganState | B10 | 8-0 | 11-1 | 0.79 | 14 | 15 | 1.24 | 35 | 0.74 | 30 | 1.91 | 2 | 0.19 | 6 |
Toledo | MAC | 7-0 | 10-1 | 0.45 | 38 | 31 | 1.01 | 61 | 0.72 | 28 | 1.03 | 23 | 0.17 | 20 |
Team | Conf | Record | Prj Rec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | AP Diff | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
USC | P12 | 4-3 | 8-4 | 0.80 | 13 | 17 | 1.43 | 11 | 0.66 | 19 | 0.90 | 29 | -0.26 | ~ |
Oklahoma | B12 | 6-1 | 10-2 | 0.96 | 5 | 8 | 1.44 | 9 | 0.60 | 13 | 1.40 | 12 | -0.22 | 14 |
Michigan | B10 | 5-2 | 9-3 | 0.94 | 6 | 4 | 1.14 | 46 | 0.39 | 2 | 1.20 | 18 | -0.21 | 15 |
Alabama | SEC | 7-1 | 10-2 | 1.15 | 2 | 1 | 1.49 | 6 | 0.51 | 6 | 1.74 | 6 | -0.21 | 7 |
Wisconsin | B10 | 6-2 | 9-3 | 0.72 | 17 | 18 | 0.94 | 72 | 0.35 | 1 | 0.68 | 35 | -0.19 | ~ |
CURRENT QUESTS FOR PERFECTION
The biggest surprise here is the low odds on North Texas. Their schedule must be terrible.
Team | Conf | Record | Prj Rec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Perf L | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas | B12 | 0-7 | 0-12 | -0.82 | 120 | 117 | 0.55 | 123 | 1.23 | 104 | -1.24 | 117 | 0.75 | 1 |
CentralFlorida | Amer | 0-8 | 0-12 | -1.03 | 125 | 122 | 0.57 | 122 | 1.38 | 116 | -1.88 | 127 | 0.72 | 2 |
NewMexicoState | Sun | 0-7 | 1-11 | -1.23 | 129 | 126 | 0.73 | 105 | 1.82 | 128 | -2.12 | 129 | 0.43 | 3 |
NorthTexas | CUSA | 0-7 | 1-11 | -0.96 | 123 | 123 | 0.66 | 113 | 1.48 | 123 | -1.61 | 123 | 0.24 | 4 |
WEEKLY WORST WATCH
Kansas is terrible, but not quite bad enough to get into 2012 CoLOLrado territory, unfortunately. They would be the worst power conference team since that wonderful Buffalo squad, though.
Team | Conf | Record | Prj Rec | Tot Rat | rk | LW | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Res Rat | rk | Prj SOS | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas | B12 | 0-7 | 0-12 | -0.82 | 120 | 117 | 0.55 | 123 | 1.23 | 104 | -1.24 | 117 | 0.39 | 5 |
Purdue | B10 | 1-6 | 2-10 | -0.37 | 95 | 97 | 0.95 | 70 | 1.21 | 100 | -0.90 | 107 | 0.34 | 12 |
OregonState | P12 | 2-5 | 3-9 | -0.34 | 94 | 88 | 0.77 | 99 | 1.03 | 78 | -0.67 | 94 | 0.31 | 19 |
WakeForest | ACC | 3-5 | 3-9 | -0.30 | 90 | 87 | 0.64 | 117 | 0.80 | 42 | -0.75 | 96 | 0.30 | 22 |
Colorado | P12 | 4-4 | 5-8 | -0.22 | 87 | 89 | 0.81 | 94 | 0.96 | 68 | -0.48 | 87 | 0.13 | 56 |
THE PICKINGS
I went 22-31-0 last week. Currently 202-207-7 (49.4%) on the year.
Best prediction: Nevada over Hawaii by 9.9 pts (actual MOV: 10 pts)
Worst prediction: Clemson over Miami by 9.4 pts (actual MOV: 58 pts)
Currently #26 out of 66 at PredictionTracker (by mean square error)
Lines taken from 5Dimes here. SU picks in bold.
Date | Overcat | H/V | Underdog | WLk | Line | Hoegh | Prj Score | Pk vs Veg | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10/31 | #9 NotreDame | V | #32 Temple | 62% | 10.5 | 4.4 | 29.1 | 24.7 | Temple |
10/31 | #13 USC | V | #36 California | 61% | 5.0 | 4.1 | 33.8 | 29.7 | California |
10/29 | #29 NorthCarolina | V | #33 Pittsburgh | 44% | 1.5 | -2.0 | 26.6 | 28.6 | Pittsburgh |
10/31 | #7 Florida | N | #30 Georgia | 70% | 3.5 | 7.6 | 31.5 | 23.8 | Florida |
10/29 | #15 TCU | H | #27 WestVirginia | 69% | 13.5 | 7.5 | 34.8 | 27.4 | WestVirginia |
10/31 | #18 OklahomaState | V | #45 TexasTech | 63% | 3.0 | 4.8 | 36.4 | 31.6 | OklahomaState |
10/29 | #49 ArizonaState | H | #41 Oregon | 53% | 2.0 | 1.2 | 31.8 | 30.6 | Oregon |
10/31 | #19 Mississippi | V | #51 Auburn | 65% | 6.0 | 5.8 | 31.1 | 25.3 | Auburn |
10/31 | #1 Clemson | V | #43 NorthCarolinaState | 86% | 10.5 | 16.7 | 38.2 | 21.5 | Clemson |
10/31 | #52 VirginiaTech | V | #66 BostonCollege | 51% | 2.0 | 0.3 | 21.2 | 20.9 | BostonCollege |
10/31 | #11 Stanford | V | #57 WashingtonState | 77% | 13.0 | 10.9 | 35.4 | 24.6 | WashingtonState |
10/31 | #44 PennState | H | #53 Illinois | 64% | 6.0 | 5.1 | 26.1 | 21.0 | Illinois |
10/31 | #28 Duke | H | #54 Miami | 76% | ~ | 10.5 | 29.9 | 19.4 | ~ |
10/31 | #50 Washington | H | #63 Arizona | 66% | ~ | 6.0 | 30.9 | 24.9 | ~ |
10/31 | #58 Texas | V | #78 IowaState | 57% | 8.0 | 2.5 | 26.4 | 23.8 | IowaState |
10/31 | #35 Tennessee | V | #72 Kentucky | 70% | 7.0 | 7.9 | 32.6 | 24.7 | Tennessee |
10/31 | #39 Navy | H | #69 SouthFlorida | 77% | 10.0 | 10.8 | 31.9 | 21.1 | Navy |
10/31 | #6 Michigan | V | #74 Minnesota | 88% | 14.0 | 18.3 | 31.0 | 12.7 | Michigan |
10/31 | #40 GeorgiaTech | V | #86 Virginia | 73% | 3.5 | 9.2 | 33.6 | 24.4 | GeorgiaTech |
10/31 | #62 SanDiegoState | V | #91 ColoradoState | 67% | 3.5 | 6.4 | 29.1 | 22.8 | SanDiegoState |
10/30 | #47 Louisville | V | #90 WakeForest | 74% | 10.0 | 9.7 | 28.4 | 18.7 | WakeForest |
10/31 | #31 Houston | H | #81 Vanderbilt | 85% | 14.0 | 16.1 | 31.9 | 15.8 | Houston |
10/30 | #59 EastCarolina | V | #93 Connecticut | 69% | 7.5 | 7.4 | 29.9 | 22.5 | Connecticut |
10/31 | #26 TexasAM | H | #80 SouthCarolina | 87% | 16.0 | 17.1 | 37.1 | 20.0 | TexasAM |
10/31 | #16 FloridaState | H | #77 Syracuse | 90% | 21.0 | 20.0 | 37.1 | 17.1 | Syracuse |
10/31 | #8 Iowa | H | #76 Maryland | 93% | 16.5 | 23.0 | 40.6 | 17.7 | Iowa |
10/31 | #64 CentralMichigan | V | #97 Akron | 71% | 4.0 | 8.1 | 26.9 | 18.8 | CentralMichigan |
10/31 | #46 Nebraska | V | #95 Purdue | 78% | 9.5 | 11.8 | 37.4 | 25.7 | Nebraska |
10/31 | #83 Tulsa | V | #102 SMU | 61% | 3.0 | 4.2 | 34.5 | 30.3 | Tulsa |
10/30 | #56 LouisianaTech | V | #99 Rice | 76% | 10.0 | 10.6 | 36.3 | 25.8 | LouisianaTech |
10/31 | #17 Wisconsin | H | #85 Rutgers | 92% | 19.0 | 22.3 | 34.9 | 12.6 | Wisconsin |
10/31 | #22 UCLA | H | #87 Colorado | 91% | 18.5 | 21.2 | 37.6 | 16.4 | UCLA |
10/31 | #105 BallState | H | #101 Massachusetts | 54% | 3.5 | 1.5 | 32.9 | 31.4 | Massachusetts |
10/31 | #25 BoiseState | V | #104 UNLV | 90% | 20.0 | 20.3 | 36.6 | 16.3 | BoiseState |
10/31 | #92 FIU | V | #115 FloridaAtlantic | 66% | 3.0 | 6.1 | 28.3 | 22.2 | FIU |
10/31 | #12 Utah | H | #94 OregonState | 95% | 22.5 | 27.7 | 40.5 | 12.8 | Utah |
10/29 | #73 GeorgiaSouthern | H | #106 TexasState | 83% | 19.0 | 14.2 | 39.4 | 25.2 | TexasState |
10/31 | #75 AirForce | V | #118 Hawaii | 80% | 7.5 | 12.6 | 31.6 | 19.0 | AirForce |
10/31 | #100 LouisianaLafayette | H | #112 LouisianaMonroe | 71% | 10.0 | 8.2 | 31.8 | 23.6 | LouisianaMonroe |
10/31 | #24 AppalachianState | H | #103 Troy | 95% | 24.0 | 26.5 | 38.0 | 11.6 | AppalachianState |
10/31 | #107 UTSA | V | #123 NorthTexas | 65% | ~ | 5.5 | 30.2 | 24.7 | ~ |
10/31 | #88 ArkansasState | H | #119 GeorgiaState | 84% | 20.0 | 14.9 | 38.6 | 23.7 | GeorgiaState |
10/31 | #42 WesternKentucky | V | #121 OldDominion | 93% | 23.0 | 23.2 | 42.1 | 18.9 | WesternKentucky |
10/30 | #55 UtahState | H | #117 Wyoming | 93% | ~ | 23.2 | 39.1 | 15.9 | ~ |
10/29 | #68 WesternMichigan | V | #124 EasternMichigan | 90% | 21.0 | 19.7 | 45.4 | 25.8 | EasternMichigan |
10/31 | #5 Oklahoma | V | #120 Kansas | 98% | 37.5 | 35.4 | 44.6 | 9.2 | Kansas |
10/29 | #89 Buffalo | V | #126 MiamiOH | 83% | 9.0 | 14.4 | 34.1 | 19.7 | Buffalo |
10/31 | #21 Memphis | H | #116 Tulane | 98% | 28.0 | 33.5 | 48.5 | 15.0 | Memphis |
10/31 | #70 SouthernMississippi | H | #122 UTEP | 92% | 19.5 | 22.8 | 40.7 | 17.9 | SouthernMississippi |
10/31 | #110 Idaho | V | #129 NewMexicoState | 74% | 4.0 | 9.7 | 38.0 | 28.3 | Idaho |
10/31 | #65 Marshall | V | #127 Charlotte | 93% | 21.0 | 23.1 | 37.7 | 14.6 | Marshall |
10/31 | #61 Cincinnati | H | #125 CentralFlorida | 95% | 22.0 | 27.6 | 44.7 | 17.1 | Cincinnati |
10/31 | #48 Arkansas | H | #127 Tennessee-Martin | 97% | ~ | 32.8 | 42.2 | 9.5 | ~ |
Talk Big Ten football with Off Tackle Empire