NCAA College Football Rankings: Stew System - Week 6

Last week I began the article writing about how the week-to-week change was decreasing as we were getting more data points. I posited that we’d continue to see this decrease, guessing that the spread on the change would be around 50 after last week’s spread was 64. Welp, I was wrong. The spread on the change actually increased to 69 (nice). I really doubt that this where we stabilize, and this may just be a blip because there were some big upsets, we’ll see.

Team Ratings:

B1G Thoughts:

• Yeah, there’s no way Michigan was giving up the #1 spot after that performance. But they did lose 3 points off their rating. Rutgers be bad, yo. (Also, Colorado lost).
• Ohio State lost ground again on Michigan, despite Michigan losing 3 points, OSU lost about 4. Looking more and more like The Game will decide a playoff spot. (Yes, I’m giving the West winner almost no shot in the CCG).
• Wisconsin, with 1 loss, is above undefeated UNL - who appears to be doing their best 2015 Iowa impression. I’m curious to see next week if a 2 loss Wisconsin is above a 1 loss UNL.
• Maryland still above PSU?!?! No Way, OUTRAGE!!! OUTRAGE!!! Calm down. There’s not that much difference now, and the gap last week was pretty massive. PSU closed the gap by 33 spots, that’s pretty huge. Keep it up and it’ll flip soon enough. Also, upsets happen, especially when it’s a bad matchup. Maybe Maryland really is better than PSU, but just a horrible matchup.
• Not a lot of change for Indiana this week. Normally a loss this, relatively, early in the season would be enough to move them down. But they kept the MoV pretty close, and the SoS boost was enough to keep them from falling too much.
• Minnesota only dropped two spots, but lost four points in their rating. The small MoV helped, also, they’re in the muddy middle, meaning a loss to another middling team doesn’t really register much. Now if the losses start mounting up....
• jNW moved up a few spots and gained some rating points, all while on the bye due to SoS boosts (jNW fans, you can thank Iowa).
• Iowa has a small jump up 15 spots, continuing the yo-yo trend. This is kind of what happens with such a shitty SoS (currently 2nd worst in the country). Next up Purdue, which continuing to hurt Iowa’s SoS.
• Oh, hey, speaking of Purdue, they’re doing pretty damn well for themselves, considering expectations.
• Rutgers and Illinois are bad, we all know this, but my system probably likes both of them a bit more than you’d expect. Both have pretty solid SoS (Rutgers has the #1 SoS in the country).
• SPARTY NO!!!! Yup, Michigan State is last. They have 2 wins, over FCS Furman and 92nd ranked Notre Dame. The only decent (top 30) team they’ve face, Wisconsin, beat the hell out of them. They lost badly to a very mediocre BYU (ranked 53rd).

Other thoughts:

• The top 3 teams in the SEC shuffle the order, with Alabama flip-flopping with Tennessee. Probably the right order now, but Bama get those two teams the next couple of weeks. If their gonna lose, this stretch is probably it.
• Boise State jumps past the Boat Rowers and Houston to claim the top G5 spot. I’d bet both end up in my top 10, will be fun to see which one gets in the NY6 bowl. Which means Houston might get left out, and a possible undefeated team gets left out of a NY6 bowl.
• Troy! They’re actually one of the better one loss teams by this rating. Fun Belt better watch out.
• Houston above Navy? Yup, see my comments about PSU/Maryland. Same with Miami/FSU.
• Auburn making a little noise, being the top 2-loss team.

Big Risers:

• The Roadrunners got a pretty big upset win over Southern Miss, the movement is mostly because they were rated so low last week.
• After a huge drop last week, Toledo bounced back up this week. They suffer a bit from the same thing Iowa does yo-yoing up and down.
• Duke and Wazzou moving on up after very rough beginnings to their seasons.

Falling Down:

• Me from last week:

Midweek Fun Belt returns tonight with Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas State. If you like bloodbaths, I suggest taking a peak.

Welp, Arky State pulled the upset, and Georgia Southern takes a tumble.

• Texas State lost to a bad Georgia State team and suffer the consequences.
• Michigan State and Georgia Tech both lost to pretty mediocre teams, and haven’t beaten any good teams. This is what happens.

Projected Playoff Teams:

Now, for DJ’s article earlier in the week I just submitted my top 4 teams, as was requested. But I’m going to project forward here. One team per conference with preference given to conference champs.

1. Michigan
2. Clemson
3. Alabama
4. Washington

Conference Ratings:

• No changes this week. SEC remains on top, the AAC remains above the pathetic Big 12.