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Big Ten Bowl Projections, Week 10

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Wisconsin's win over Nebraska and the oddities of the Orange Bowl mean a shakeup in the Big Ten pecking order.

With wisconsin asserting that it’s the front-runner in the Big Ten West unless Nebraska finds a way to beat Ohio State next Saturday, we’ve got a shake-up in the Big Ten bowl picture!

A few notes before we get into it:

  • Read up on the Citrus Bowl selection process and tell me if I’m crazy (I’m not). A Big Ten-ACC matchup in the Orange Bowl (which takes the highest CFP-rated team of the B1G, SEC, and Notre Dame left) means the ACC gets the Big Ten’s Citrus Bowl slot. As a result, everyone drops a spot in the Big Ten despite the status quo holding. This works out poorest for Nebraska.
  • Jerry Palm has three Big Ten teams in the NY6 bowls. I...I just have a hard time thinking that Nebraska stays high enough to make it. That’d be something though, huh? Let’s put a pin in that idea for next week after Nebraska-Ohio State...
  • A glut of 7-5/6-6 teams (Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Minnesota, and Northwestern) along with last year’s placements in the Quick Lane for Minnesota and the Pinstripe for Indiana means that things get weird for everything from Music City on down. Even their Big Ten records don’t really mean anything, save for relegating Maryland to the Quick Lane or Pinstripe.
  • Teams with 5-7 records going bowling: Vanderbilt.
  • A three-way tie at 8-4 among Colorado, Washington State, and USC means things get weird in the Pac-12.
  • Cincinnati is 4-4 and I don’t get where their last two wins are coming from out of BYU, @UCF, Memphis, and @Tulsa. [Not super-relevant, I just don’t get why they’re pretty unanimously still bowling.]
  • We’ve got a new G5 team in the CFP! Thanks, Wyoming!

Bowl Date Tie 1 Tie 2 Comments
Cure 17-Dec AAC Central Florida Sun Belt 4 Appalachian State A surprisingly decent game for December 17.
Camelia 17-Dec MAC 3 Akron Sun Belt 3 South Alabama No pecking order means a MAC throwaway. The Sun Belt reciprocates.
New Orleans 17-Dec Sun Belt 1 Louisiana Lafayette C-USA Louisiana Tech The Cajuns are clawing their way back to New Orleans and unless LaTech wins the C-USA, it's a ticketpalooza.
New Mexico 17-Dec C-USA Middle Tennessee State MWC New Mexico A narrow win in Honolulu means the Lobos are looking good to bowl. MTSU escaped FIU and stays put.
Las Vegas 17-Dec MWC Boise State Pac12 6 California I'm a little uncertain on MWC selection, so Boise goes here unless it has to be MWC champ SDSU.
Miami Beach 19-Dec AAC Houston MAC Eastern Michigan EMU takes on an angry Houston as their reward for a 6-6 season.
Boca Raton 20-Dec AAC Memphis C-USA Southern Mississippi
Poinsettia 21-Dec BYU BYU MWC San Diego State Poinsettia organizers get an attendance bonanza.
Potato 22-Dec MAC 2 Central Michigan MWC Wyoming Wyoming's win over Boise sends the Broncos to Vegas but keeps them close to home.
Bahamas 23-Dec AAC Tulsa MAC Toledo The Bahamas Bowl is for high-flying teams. Toledo scores second-most in the MAC.
Armed Forces 23-Dec Big XII 7-8 TCU AAC (Navy) Navy A rough bump for the Frogs, but the Texas Bowl lands a bigger fish.
Dollar General 23-Dec MAC 1 Ohio Sun Belt 2 Troy A win over Toledo gets Ohio the MAC runner-up nod.
Hawaii 24-Dec MWC Hawaii C-USA Western Kentucky
Independence 26-Dec ACC Boston College C-USA/SEC Vanderbilt** Commodores move up, somehow, on virtue of being smart, when C-USA can't fill this bowl. The Eagles' win has me believing even 5-7 might work.
Quick Lane 26-Dec ACC Army* B1G 8-9 Indiana Army replaces an ACC slot that goes unfilled. Detroit will do just fine for the Hoosiers.
St. Petersburg 26-Dec ACC Miami (FL) AAC South Florida And now you've got a potentially excited USF fanbase?
Cactus 27-Dec Big XII 6 Kansas State Pac12 7 Arizona State A repeat for ASU, but there's only 1 win on the rest of the schedule.
Heart of Dallas 27-Dec B1G 8-9 Maryland C-USA Old Dominion I literally gagged writing this matchup out.
Military 27-Dec ACC Air Force* AAC Temple This works out very nicely when the ACC can't fill a bowl. Air Force goes here to avoid a Temple-Army redux.
Holiday 27-Dec B1G 2-4 Nebraska Pac12 3 Colorado Would YOU set up this matchup? A three-way tie in the Pac12 at 8-4 means Colorado-Nebraska looks sexy to the Holiday.
Russell Athletic 28-Dec ACC 2 Florida State Big XII 3 West Virginia Jumped by Oklahoma State, West-by-God-Virginia heads to the third Big XII slot.
Pinstripe 28-Dec ACC 3-6 Pittsburgh B1G 5-7 Northwestern Ugh. But the conference isn't sending Minnesota to New York, so the 'Cats get it.
Texas 28-Dec Big XII 4 Baylor SEC 3-8 Georgia I think Baylor comes out on the short end of the OK-WVU-Baylor triangle.
Foster Farms 28-Dec B1G 5-7 Minnesota Pac12 4 USC Reading the Citrus Bowl selection process wrong really screwed up the Big Ten bowl order. Sorry. A bad Minnesota team gets to be the sacrificial lamb.
Alamo 29-Dec Big XII 2 Oklahoma State Pac12 2 Washington State A Cowboys upset gives them a tiebreaker on WVU, and Wazzu fans get a gift after an 8-4 season.
Belk 29-Dec ACC 3-6 Wake Forest SEC 3-8 South Carolina Gross.
Birmingham 29-Dec AAC Arkansas State* SEC 9 Ole Miss The Rebels sneak in with an Egg Bowl win. The Red Wolves win 3 of their last 4.
Sun 30-Dec ACC 3-6 Georgia Tech Pac12 5 Stanford Stanford looks competent again, Cal stumbled, and ASU is finishing 6-6.
Music City 30-Dec B1G 5-7 Iowa SEC 3-8 Arkansas Iowa stays put, and the promise of a BERT reunion remains to good to pass up.
Arizona 30-Dec MWC Colorado State Sun Belt 5 Idaho Sure, I guess. It's Idaho or Arkansas State.
Liberty 30-Dec Big XII 5 Texas SEC 3-8 Kentucky Texas slots in 5th out of the Big XII.
Citrus 31-Dec ACC/B1G 2-4 Virginia Tech SEC 2 LSU A Louisville-Wisconsin Orange Bowl means the ACC gets the Citrus Bowl slot.
TaxSlayer 31-Dec ACC 3-6 North Carolina SEC 3-8 Tennessee UT falls but gets a decent bowl somehow.
Outback 2-Jan B1G 2-4 Penn State SEC 3-8 Florida Send Penn State out west, or just down south? Blame wisconsin.
New Year's Six Bowls
Bowl Date Tie 1 Tie 2 Comments
Cotton 2-Jan At-Large Auburn At-Large Western Michigan ROW THE GODDAMN BOAT. 9-3 Auburn sneaks in with a close loss to 'Bama and its other losses to Clemson and A&M.
Rose 2-Jan B1G 1 Ohio State Pac12 1 Utah Who does the Rose Bowl want: A Wisconsin team with 2 losses to Michigan, 1 to OSU, and three consecutive at the Rose? Or Ohio State?
Sugar 2-Jan Big XII 1 Oklahoma SEC 1 Texas A&M Winner of the Big XII ain't making the playoff; A&M fills the SEC's spot when 'Bama makes the playoff.
Orange 30-Dec ACC 1 Louisville B1G/SEC/ND Wisconsin The SEC gets bumped by a surging Wisconsin.
College Football Playoff
Bowl Date Tie 1 Tie 2 Comments
Fiesta 31-Dec CFP2 Michigan CFP3 Clemson Self-explanatory, no? The best four teams in the nation are the best four in the nation 'til we're proven otherwise.
Peach 31-Dec CFP1 Alabama CFP4 Washington The Huskies outlast Utah a second time to win the Pac-12, but 'Bama-Washington still won't even be a contest.