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State of the Races: Who will meet in the B1G Championship Game?

Can Nebraska and Ohio State pull off unlikely trips to Indy?

By Nate Peterson
Ohio State v Michigan Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Nothing changed in the East with all three of Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State winning. Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota won eliminating Iowa, Minnesota, and Northwestern from the Title Game. Indiana, Maryland, and Northwestern all need to win this weekend to reach bowl eligibility (ignoring any openings for 5-7, high-APR teams). Hate Week will be a fun one with the Division Championships and Bowl eligibility on the line. And trophies. Lots and lots of trophies.

S&P+ is projecting the following in the final week:

Nate Peterson

Starting with the East, Michigan and Ohio State will face off at noon est. If the Wolverines win, they are in Indy. If Ohio State wins, we won’t know the East representative until after Penn State and Michigan State finish. The Nittany Lions and Spartans kick off at 3:30 est in Happy Valley. We have four possible outcomes with the following probabilities:

  1. Michigan and Penn State win, Michigan rep in Indy (56% x 85% = 46.7%)
  2. Michigan and Michigan State win, Michigan rep in Indy (56% x 15% = 8.4%
  3. Ohio State and Penn State win, Penn State rep in Indy (44% x 85% = 37.4%)
  4. Ohio State and Michigan State win, Ohio State rep in Indy (44% x 15% = 6.6%)

Michigan has a 56% chance of going to Indy, Penn State a 37.4% chance, and Ohio State a 6.6% chance.

Indiana has a 90% chance of beating Purdue for The Old Oaken Bucket and bowl eligibility for the second year in a row. The two meet in Bloominton at noon est. Maryland has a 79% chance of beating Rutgers for a fat crab sandwich or something and bowl eligibility. Rutgers is looking to avoid an 0-9 B1G campaign and a 14 game losing streak in conference games. They meet in College Park at noon est.

Nate Peterson

Nebraska and Iowa kick things off on Black Friday at 2:30 cst. If Iowa wins, Wisconsin will head to Indianapolis. The winner will also take home the Heroes Trophy brought to you by HyVee. If Nebraska wins, the Badgers will need to beat the Gophers on Saturday.

The Badgers are looking to tie the all-time series with Minnesota and their 13th straight win in the battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe. A Minnesota win would finally get the monkey off their back, preserve the all-tim series lead, and would either give the division to Nebraska outright, or create a 4-way tie amongst the quadrangle. A Gopher win knocks Wisconsin out of any College Football Playoff talk and could keep them out of a NY6 game, especially if Nebraska wins the West. Again, we have 4 outcomes at the top of the West:

  1. Nebraska and Wisconsin win, Wisconsin rep in Indy (48% x 81% = 38.88%)
  2. Nebraska and Minnesota win, Nebraska rep in Indy (48% x 19% = 9.12%)
  3. Iowa and Wisconsin win, Wisconsin rep in Indy (52% x 81% = 42.12%)
  4. Iowa and Minnesota win, Wisconsin rep in Indy (52% x 19% = 9.88%)

Northwestern and Illinois will battle for the LOLHat in Evanston at 11 cst. The Wildcats are looking to get to 6 wins but may stil go to a bowl at 5-7 because they are a bunch of NEERRRRRDDDSSSS have a high APR score. S&P+ gives Northwestern an 85% chance of winning. Purdue looks to play spoiler in Bloomington but their odds aren’t great at 10%.