Hoegher's 2016 Previews: MINNESOTA

It's too damn hot. Thank goodness for AC.

More information can be found here: [OTE PRIMER], [DROPBOX]

PREVIOUS ACHIEVEMENTS

Overall Ratings

Off/Def Ratings

W%/Luck Ratings

RECORD COMPARISON, 2007-2015

Tm Rk	Gms	W	L	T	W%
5	201	147	54	0	73%
10	185	100	85	0	54%
15	158	73	85	0	46%
20	176	60	116	0	34%
25	147	44	103	0	30%
30	149	34	115	0	23%
35	137	34	103	0	25%
40	144	28	116	0	19%
45	132	22	110	0	17%
50	123	14	109	0	11%
55	144	25	119	0	17%
60	123	11	112	0	9%
65	124	17	107	0	14%
70	100	6	94	0	6%
75	109	7	102	0	6%
80	100	6	94	0	6%
85	108	7	101	0	6%
90	112	2	110	0	2%
95	92	1	91	0	1%
100	80	0	80	0	0%
Avg	Gms	W	L	T	W%
71.1	26	2	24	0	8%

Record vs Top 25

Lo	Hi	Gms	W	L	W%	+/-
99%	100%	1	1	0	100%	+0.0
90%	99%	10	9	1	90%	-0.6
80%	90%	6	5	1	83%	-0.1
70%	80%	10	7	3	70%	-0.6
60%	70%	4	4	0	100%	+1.4
50%	60%	10	8	2	80%	+2.6
40%	50%	8	3	5	38%	-0.7
30%	40%	8	4	4	50%	+1.2
20%	30%	15	4	11	27%	+0.4
10%	20%	16	1	15	6%	-1.3
0%	10%	26	2	24	8%	+0.9
Close Gms		46	23	23	50%	+1.9

Win Lk Comparison

FUTURE ENDEAVORS

Conf	Record	C-Rec	Tot Rat	rk	Adj Rat	rk	Res Rat	rk
B10-West	0-0	0-0	0.13	52	0.12	52	0.28	47
# Tms	Prj Rec	Prj C-Rec	Adj Off	rk	Adj Def	rk	Prj SOS	rk
129	7-5	4-5	1.03	63	0.91	53	0.06	66
Perf W	1 Loss	Bowl	Ret Off	rk	Ret Def	rk	Rec 3yr	rk
0.0%	0.5%	80.5%	7	48	6	65	83.22	53

Gm	Wk	Date	H/V	Opponent	Opp Rk	FCS	C-Gm	Prj Lk
1	2	09/01	H	OregonState	91	~	~	70%
2	3	09/10	H	Indiana State	130	Y	~	98%
3	5	09/24	H	ColoradoState	104	~	~	79%
4	6	10/01	V	PennState	27	~	Y	30%
5	7	10/08	H	Iowa	50	~	Y	49%
6	8	10/15	V	Maryland	51	~	Y	49%
7	9	10/22	H	Rutgers	91	~	Y	70%
8	10	10/29	V	Illinois	61	~	Y	55%
9	11	11/05	H	Purdue	96	~	Y	74%
10	12	11/12	V	Nebraska	16	~	Y	24%
11	13	11/19	H	Northwestern	64	~	Y	58%
12	14	11/26	V	Wisconsin	13	~	Y	22%

Opp Rk	Team	B10 Avg	Opp %ile
Top 12	0	1.6	90%
Top 25	2	2.3	80%
Top 51	5	6.0	60%
Bot 25	2	1.3	20%

One of the inevitable truths that you have to face when getting in the hobby of doing up projections is that you will be wrong. The hope is that you're not wrong all that much, but every year some team like justNorthwestern will come along and bust out a 10 win season on the basis of potato magic. It happens, life goes on.

Still, it's worth taking an evaluation of how pre-season guesses compare to final season results. While I'm sure your favorite team is unique and special, I've always favored taking a look at general trends, so you'll just have to deal. We're using 1990-2015 for the years in question here. First, how my projections fail at various percentiles ranks (so the better pre-season teams are on the right):

(RMSE is root-mean-square-error, in case that needed clarifying.) The first thing you'll probably notice is a definite trend in the average error between pre-season and final ratings. Highly ranked teams in the pre-season tend to under-perform, shlt teams in the pre-season tend to over-perform. Ideally, this trend would average zero across the board, but given how my pre-season ratings are made I can understand why this exists.

Pre-season ratings are mostly based on recent history. Teams highly ranked in the pre-season probably performed rather well in recent history. Unfortunately, some of those teams will fall victim to inevitable regression, hence the trend you see here (flip it for the crap teams). I used to have a regression coefficient added into my pre-season guesses, but for various reasons I decided to drop it. C'est la vie.

Probably more interesting is if teams can consistently over/under perform their pre-season ratings here. Again, we'll look at over-all trends, but feel free to hold on to your anecdotal accounts as proof:

I am now thinking I should've provided a count N in the figure somewhere. Whelp, too late now. It's probably somewhere in the ~2500 range.

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