FanPost

Hoegher's 2016 Previews: MINNESOTA

It's too damn hot. Thank goodness for AC.

More information can be found here: [OTE PRIMER], [DROPBOX]

PREVIOUS ACHIEVEMENTS

Overall Ratings

Off/Def Ratings

W%/Luck Ratings

RECORD COMPARISON, 2007-2015

Tm Rk Gms W L T W%
5 201 147 54 0 73%
10 185 100 85 0 54%
15 158 73 85 0 46%
20 176 60 116 0 34%
25 147 44 103 0 30%
30 149 34 115 0 23%
35 137 34 103 0 25%
40 144 28 116 0 19%
45 132 22 110 0 17%
50 123 14 109 0 11%
55 144 25 119 0 17%
60 123 11 112 0 9%
65 124 17 107 0 14%
70 100 6 94 0 6%
75 109 7 102 0 6%
80 100 6 94 0 6%
85 108 7 101 0 6%
90 112 2 110 0 2%
95 92 1 91 0 1%
100 80 0 80 0 0%
Avg Gms W L T W%
71.1 26 2 24 0 8%

Record vs Top 25

Lo Hi Gms W L T W% +/-
99% 100% 1 1 0 0 100% +0.0
90% 99% 10 9 1 0 90% -0.6
80% 90% 6 5 1 0 83% -0.1
70% 80% 10 7 3 0 70% -0.6
60% 70% 4 4 0 0 100% +1.4
50% 60% 10 8 2 0 80% +2.6
40% 50% 8 3 5 0 38% -0.7
30% 40% 8 4 4 0 50% +1.2
20% 30% 15 4 11 0 27% +0.4
10% 20% 16 1 15 0 6% -1.3
0% 10% 26 2 24 0 8% +0.9
Close Gms 46 23 23 0 50% +1.9

Win Lk Comparison

FUTURE ENDEAVORS

Conf Record C-Rec Tot Rat rk Adj Rat rk Res Rat rk
B10-West 0-0 0-0 0.13 52 0.12 52 0.28 47
# Tms Prj Rec Prj C-Rec Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Prj SOS rk
129 7-5 4-5 1.03 63 0.91 53 0.06 66
Perf W 1 Loss Bowl Ret Off rk Ret Def rk Rec 3yr rk
0.0% 0.5% 80.5% 7 48 6 65 83.22 53

Gm Wk Date H/V Opponent Opp Rk FCS C-Gm Prj Lk
1 2 09/01 H OregonState 91 ~ ~ 70%
2 3 09/10 H Indiana State 130 Y ~ 98%
3 5 09/24 H ColoradoState 104 ~ ~ 79%
4 6 10/01 V PennState 27 ~ Y 30%
5 7 10/08 H Iowa 50 ~ Y 49%
6 8 10/15 V Maryland 51 ~ Y 49%
7 9 10/22 H Rutgers 91 ~ Y 70%
8 10 10/29 V Illinois 61 ~ Y 55%
9 11 11/05 H Purdue 96 ~ Y 74%
10 12 11/12 V Nebraska 16 ~ Y 24%
11 13 11/19 H Northwestern 64 ~ Y 58%
12 14 11/26 V Wisconsin 13 ~ Y 22%
Opp Rk Team B10 Avg Opp %ile
Top 12 0 1.6 90%
Top 25 2 2.3 80%
Top 51 5 6.0 60%
Bot 25 2 1.3 20%

One of the inevitable truths that you have to face when getting in the hobby of doing up projections is that you will be wrong. The hope is that you're not wrong all that much, but every year some team like justNorthwestern will come along and bust out a 10 win season on the basis of potato magic. It happens, life goes on.

Still, it's worth taking an evaluation of how pre-season guesses compare to final season results. While I'm sure your favorite team is unique and special, I've always favored taking a look at general trends, so you'll just have to deal. We're using 1990-2015 for the years in question here. First, how my projections fail at various percentiles ranks (so the better pre-season teams are on the right):

(RMSE is root-mean-square-error, in case that needed clarifying.) The first thing you'll probably notice is a definite trend in the average error between pre-season and final ratings. Highly ranked teams in the pre-season tend to under-perform, shlt teams in the pre-season tend to over-perform. Ideally, this trend would average zero across the board, but given how my pre-season ratings are made I can understand why this exists.

Pre-season ratings are mostly based on recent history. Teams highly ranked in the pre-season probably performed rather well in recent history. Unfortunately, some of those teams will fall victim to inevitable regression, hence the trend you see here (flip it for the crap teams). I used to have a regression coefficient added into my pre-season guesses, but for various reasons I decided to drop it. C'est la vie.

Probably more interesting is if teams can consistently over/under perform their pre-season ratings here. Again, we'll look at over-all trends, but feel free to hold on to your anecdotal accounts as proof:

I am now thinking I should've provided a count N in the figure somewhere. Whelp, too late now. It's probably somewhere in the ~2500 range.