FanPost

Hoegher's 2016 Previews: INDIANA

Y'all are lucky (?) that I make these up in advance. Zuzu, I see your master plan. You can't make us forget Rutgers is bad by delaying their preview series.

More information can be found here: [OTE PRIMER], [DROPBOX]

PREVIOUS ACHIEVEMENTS

Overall Ratings

Off/Def Ratings

W%/Luck Ratings

RECORD COMPARISON, 1997-2015

Tm Rk Gms W L T W%
5 419 307 112 0 73%
10 369 193 176 0 52%
15 335 145 190 0 43%
20 339 126 213 0 37%
25 318 100 218 0 31%
30 312 71 241 0 23%
35 290 61 229 0 21%
40 307 56 251 0 18%
45 269 34 235 0 13%
50 248 33 215 0 13%
55 255 36 219 0 14%
60 240 22 218 0 9%
65 246 25 221 0 10%
70 211 14 197 0 7%
75 222 9 213 0 4%
80 205 9 196 0 4%
85 227 8 219 0 4%
90 210 3 207 0 1%
95 187 1 186 0 1%
100 198 2 196 0 1%
Avg Gms W L T W%
83.1 58 2 56 0 3%

Record vs Top 25

Lo Hi Gms W L T W% +/-
99% 100% 3 3 0 0 100% +0.0
90% 99% 17 15 2 0 88% -1.3
80% 90% 12 11 1 0 92% +0.8
70% 80% 11 11 0 0 100% +2.8
60% 70% 9 6 3 0 67% +0.2
50% 60% 11 8 3 0 73% +1.9
40% 50% 11 3 8 0 27% -1.9
30% 40% 15 6 9 0 40% +0.8
20% 30% 26 5 21 0 19% -1.5
10% 20% 22 2 20 0 9% -1.2
0% 10% 86 4 82 0 5% +0.9
Close Gms 69 26 43 0 38% -2.8

Win Lk Comparison

FUTURE ENDEAVORS

Conf Record C-Rec Tot Rat rk Adj Rat rk Res Rat rk
B10-East 0-0 0-0 -0.01 71 -0.01 71 -0.04 71
# Tms Prj Rec Prj C-Rec Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Prj SOS rk
129 5-7 3-6 1.13 34 1.14 104 0.13 57
Perf W 1 Loss Bowl Ret Off rk Ret Def rk Rec 3yr rk
0.0% 0.0% 39.8% 6 74 7 34 83.08 56

Gm Wk Date H/V Opponent Opp Rk FCS C-Gm Prj Lk
1 2 09/01 V FIU 98 ~ ~ 69%
2 3 09/10 H BallState 111 ~ ~ 77%
3 5 09/24 H WakeForest 92 ~ ~ 62%
4 6 10/01 H MichiganState 31 ~ Y 23%
5 7 10/08 V OhioState 3 ~ Y 8%
6 8 10/15 H Nebraska 39 ~ Y 28%
7 9 10/22 V Northwestern 44 ~ Y 32%
8 10 10/29 H Maryland 81 ~ Y 55%
9 11 11/05 V Rutgers 59 ~ Y 44%
10 12 11/12 H PennState 46 ~ Y 35%
11 13 11/19 V Michigan 10 ~ Y 14%
12 14 11/26 H Purdue 96 ~ Y 65%
Opp Rk Team B10 Avg Opp %ile
Top 12 2 1.6 90%
Top 25 2 2.3 80%
Top 51 6 6.0 60%
Bot 25 1 1.3 20%

As a quick reminder, all opponent ranks referenced above are "site-adjusted."

In my relatively short history of observing the Big Ten, Indiana has been characterized by two attributes:

1) decent offense

2) horri-bad defense

It is Indiana, so ya take what you can get. But it brings up the question: what matters more: offense or defense?

It's tough to answer this for college football. If we could assume offense and defense are independent of each other, then we could just test which matters more for winning. College football (as with all college sports) throws a wrench here, since good teams tend to be good all around and bad teams tend to be bad all around. Teams like 2015 Boston College are rare and should generally be ignored.

Fortunately, I discovered MATLAB's heat-map functionality. Mostly, this gives me a reason to display colorful images, but I think it helps with our current inquiry. For teams that trend toward defense/offense, how do they fare?

RMSE is the Root Mean Square Error, and it can be considered as the difference between the Expected MOV (according to my metrics) and the Actual MOV (according to reality).

Three things...

1) Obvs, good defense and good offense leads to winning a lot of games.

2) As many might have suspected, a good/bad offense/defense (respectively) leads to volatile results. And the opposite also applies! A bad/good offense/defense (respectively) leads to consistent results.

The neat thing is that "good offense/bad defense" seems to be a more winning formula than "good defense/bad offense." Keep on keeping on, Kevin Wilson.

3) I used my end-of-season stats for calculations, but yes: those are the number of games for each category. Divide by ten for a rough estimate of the number of teams in each category.