Hoegher's 2016 Previews: WISCONSIN

Wish me luck, I'm hoping to have a lease signed by mid-day today, but need to ensure it isn't taken by that time.

More information can be found here: [OTE PRIMER], [DROPBOX]

PREVIOUS ACHIEVEMENTS

Overall Ratings

Off/Def Ratings

W%/Luck Ratings

RECORD COMPARISON, 2006-2015

Tm Rk	Gms	W	L	T	W%
5	219	159	60	0	73%
10	201	106	95	0	53%
15	173	81	92	0	47%
20	190	67	123	0	35%
25	163	50	113	0	31%
30	162	36	126	0	22%
35	156	38	118	0	24%
40	160	31	129	0	19%
45	142	22	120	0	15%
50	140	17	123	0	12%
55	155	26	129	0	17%
60	135	12	123	0	9%
65	134	17	117	0	13%
70	111	7	104	0	6%
75	121	7	114	0	6%
80	110	6	104	0	5%
85	121	7	114	0	6%
90	116	2	114	0	2%
95	102	1	101	0	1%
100	90	0	90	0	0%
Avg	Gms	W	L	T	W%
22.1	34	8	26	0	24%

Record vs Top 25

Lo	Hi	Gms	W	L	W%	+/-
99%	100%	19	19	0	100%	+0.1
90%	99%	40	38	2	95%	-0.2
80%	90%	24	22	2	92%	+1.4
70%	80%	10	6	4	60%	-1.5
60%	70%	4	2	2	50%	-0.6
50%	60%	8	6	2	75%	+1.6
40%	50%	3	0	3	0%	-1.4
30%	40%	6	4	2	67%	+1.7
20%	30%	9	1	8	11%	-1.2
10%	20%	5	0	5	0%	-0.8
0%	10%	5	0	5	0%	-0.3
Close Gms		47	24	23	51%	-3.3

Win Lk Comparison

FUTURE ENDEAVORS

Conf	Record	C-Rec	Tot Rat	rk	Adj Rat	rk	Res Rat	rk
B10-West	0-0	0-0	0.43	25	0.39	25	0.79	22
# Tms	Prj Rec	Prj C-Rec	Adj Off	rk	Adj Def	rk	Prj SOS	rk
129	8-4	5-4	1.06	52	0.68	4	0.20	41
Perf W	1 Loss	Bowl	Ret Off	rk	Ret Def	rk	Rec 3yr	rk
0.1%	1.7%	91.8%	6	74	7	34	85.05	34

Gm	Wk	Date	H/V	Opponent	Opp Rk	FCS	C-Gm	Prj Lk
1	2	09/03	N	LSU	3	~	~	25%
2	3	09/10	H	Akron	124	~	~	95%
3	4	09/17	H	GeorgiaState	124	~	~	95%
4	5	09/24	V	MichiganState	10	~	Y	38%
5	6	10/01	V	Michigan	10	~	Y	38%
6	8	10/15	H	OhioState	11	~	Y	39%
7	9	10/22	V	Iowa	31	~	Y	56%
8	10	10/29	H	Nebraska	39	~	Y	61%
9	11	11/05	V	Northwestern	44	~	Y	64%
10	12	11/12	H	Illinois	92	~	Y	86%
11	13	11/19	V	Purdue	70	~	Y	79%
12	14	11/26	H	Minnesota	64	~	Y	78%

Opp Rk	Team	B10 Avg	Opp %ile
Top 12	4	1.6	90%
Top 25	4	2.3	80%
Top 51	7	6.0	60%
Bot 25	2	1.3	20%

Aside from cheese curds, failed NFL running backs, and beer, Wisconsin is probably best known for having a stellar home field advantage (which is why trash teams like Iowa and jNW have such a hard time winning there).

HFA is a concept that everyone is familiar with (and unique to "intangibles," agrees that it actually exists), but it's a bit difficult to nail down exactly. For football, a default assumption of 3-pts is usually pretty good and honestly will serve you just fine. Since I like to make things difficult for myself, I use something a bit more complicated than that.

After much trial-and-error, I've settled on a decent solution: I use the MOV in conference home games (over the last five years) to provide my estimate for HFA. It seems to do the job. And because I am a generous soul, I've chosen to show my data of how that looks over time:

Some clarifications:

"Home" refers to all home games. It averages a higher average MOV, because Ohio State isn't about to visit Akron in a home-and-home.

"Err" refers to the difference between the actual MOV and a "neutral-site-expected" MOV. It's a useful check as to whether my home field adjustments are actually doing their job.

"C-Hm MOV" is what I use for home field adjustments, though again with the caveat that I use 5-yr averages to help smooth things out. I'm happy to see it hovers around 3.4-pts, which seems perfectly reasonable.

I've also got home field adjustments for my "resume" ratings, which are only W/L based. As such, they don't really scale to point values, but they are needed for proper site-adjusted ratings. You can see them below:

For your amusement, I've also included HFA ratings for each FBS team (since 1990). The HFA calculated here is based on the difference between the actual home MOV and the "neutral-site-expected" MOV. Higher value means your team wins by more than expected (thus the "home-field-advantage").

Sorted by conference HFA. Please take note and laugh at Georgia.

Team	# Hm	# C-Hm	HFA (pts)	C-HFA (pts)
NotreDame	160	0	2.81	Eff ND
Army	118	25	4.77	7.52
Rice	138	100	4.17	6.63
LouisianaTech	105	64	5.63	6.15
Wisconsin	158	100	4.83	5.90
NorthTexas	100	71	4.98	5.46
IowaState	141	102	5.63	5.38
Syracuse	148	88	5.55	5.37
Nevada	123	87	4.55	5.37
BoiseState	109	75	4.68	5.37
EastCarolina	131	72	3.00	5.31
Hawaii	181	106	5.20	5.26
NorthernIllinois	115	84	4.66	5.20
OklahomaState	140	102	5.92	5.16
Marshall	96	82	4.65	5.00
TexasTech	141	99	4.58	4.96
Colorado	146	103	4.85	4.92
Vanderbilt	151	102	4.37	4.89
Missouri	143	98	5.52	4.89
KansasState	150	100	5.70	4.87
Tulsa	134	82	3.80	4.65
ArkansasState	101	68	3.34	4.60
Texas	148	95	3.82	4.51
KentState	121	107	3.87	4.50
Arkansas	124	84	4.02	4.49
Houston	139	97	4.21	4.24
NewMexico	143	98	3.24	4.24
ArizonaState	157	110	5.15	4.21
CentralMichigan	123	107	3.27	4.16
Wyoming	136	99	4.33	4.13
MichiganState	166	105	3.90	4.11
MississippiState	148	101	4.15	4.07
OregonState	140	108	5.38	4.06
Minnesota	154	104	5.37	4.03
WakeForest	137	101	3.11	3.89
UNLV	137	95	3.84	3.85
Maryland	142	100	4.17	3.84
UtahState	121	82	2.55	3.82
Washington	161	109	4.36	3.80
UTEP	132	103	3.73	3.77
ColoradoState	127	101	4.05	3.75
Akron	118	96	3.09	3.68
Kansas	147	103	4.65	3.66
Ohio	118	104	4.41	3.64
Cincinnati	134	69	4.26	3.62
BYU	150	82	2.96	3.57
WestVirginia	154	88	3.39	3.57
Clemson	147	102	3.58	3.56
Nebraska	169	102	4.32	3.53
MiamiOH	126	104	3.33	3.53
Arizona	156	111	4.27	3.51
CentralFlorida	93	58	3.12	3.46
Mississippi	147	97	3.56	3.45
EasternMichigan	118	102	3.26	3.45
GeorgiaTech	145	104	2.75	3.44
WashingtonState	134	108	4.07	3.44
SanJoseState	112	95	3.19	3.41
FresnoState	142	104	4.51	3.41
FloridaState	147	97	3.78	3.37
Iowa	156	105	4.45	3.36
Indiana	149	102	4.76	3.34
Tulane	137	74	3.54	3.33
California	148	108	4.59	3.33
SanDiegoState	141	101	3.09	3.24
SMU	141	100	3.67	3.19
NewMexicoState	125	86	3.93	3.15
Kentucky	157	103	4.02	3.10
Rutgers	135	88	2.72	3.07
PennState	166	92	4.56	3.07
BostonCollege	147	92	2.84	3.07
TexasAM	153	100	5.46	3.04
UCLA	158	109	4.26	3.01
Purdue	156	103	4.14	2.98
Auburn	162	99	2.86	2.96
NorthCarolina	146	102	3.48	2.90
Tennessee	170	104	3.40	2.87
Oklahoma	152	96	4.24	2.82
Pittsburgh	154	87	2.86	2.78
TCU	140	101	2.52	2.76
Memphis	142	74	2.15	2.68
Temple	127	80	2.90	2.60
Baylor	140	102	3.52	2.58
Miami	145	90	2.99	2.56
Virginia	151	104	3.50	2.55
SouthCarolina	157	95	3.88	2.52
Michigan	172	104	2.83	2.51
Stanford	155	110	2.26	2.45
OhioState	174	105	1.94	2.45
WesternMichigan	119	106	2.05	2.32
Northwestern	148	103	2.25	2.29
Toledo	136	102	1.70	2.27
SouthernMississippi	119	74	3.47	2.20
BallState	117	105	2.59	2.15
Navy	112	4	-0.81	2.10
AirForce	139	100	1.94	2.04
BowlingGreen	124	102	2.43	2.04
Illinois	153	105	4.02	2.01
Duke	139	100	2.35	2.00
Utah	143	104	2.17	1.96
USC	160	108	2.85	1.84
Oregon	155	109	3.44	1.59
NorthCarolinaState	143	102	2.58	1.53
Florida	155	91	3.01	1.44
VirginiaTech	151	88	2.20	0.97
LSU	167	104	2.70	0.71
Alabama	143	94	-0.38	0.53
Louisville	144	71	1.47	0.40
LouisianaLafayette	110	63	1.62	0.16
Georgia	149	92	1.39	-0.17

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