Wish me luck, I'm hoping to have a lease signed by mid-day today, but need to ensure it isn't taken by that time.
More information can be found here: [OTE PRIMER], [DROPBOX]
PREVIOUS ACHIEVEMENTS
Overall Ratings
Off/Def Ratings
W%/Luck Ratings
RECORD COMPARISON, 2006-2015
Tm Rk | Gms | W | L | T | W% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
5 | 219 | 159 | 60 | 0 | 73% |
10 | 201 | 106 | 95 | 0 | 53% |
15 | 173 | 81 | 92 | 0 | 47% |
20 | 190 | 67 | 123 | 0 | 35% |
25 | 163 | 50 | 113 | 0 | 31% |
30 | 162 | 36 | 126 | 0 | 22% |
35 | 156 | 38 | 118 | 0 | 24% |
40 | 160 | 31 | 129 | 0 | 19% |
45 | 142 | 22 | 120 | 0 | 15% |
50 | 140 | 17 | 123 | 0 | 12% |
55 | 155 | 26 | 129 | 0 | 17% |
60 | 135 | 12 | 123 | 0 | 9% |
65 | 134 | 17 | 117 | 0 | 13% |
70 | 111 | 7 | 104 | 0 | 6% |
75 | 121 | 7 | 114 | 0 | 6% |
80 | 110 | 6 | 104 | 0 | 5% |
85 | 121 | 7 | 114 | 0 | 6% |
90 | 116 | 2 | 114 | 0 | 2% |
95 | 102 | 1 | 101 | 0 | 1% |
100 | 90 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0% |
Avg | Gms | W | L | T | W% |
22.1 | 34 | 8 | 26 | 0 | 24% |
Record vs Top 25
Lo | Hi | Gms | W | L | T | W% | +/- |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
99% | 100% | 19 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 100% | +0.1 |
90% | 99% | 40 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 95% | -0.2 |
80% | 90% | 24 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 92% | +1.4 |
70% | 80% | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 60% | -1.5 |
60% | 70% | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 50% | -0.6 |
50% | 60% | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 75% | +1.6 |
40% | 50% | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0% | -1.4 |
30% | 40% | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 67% | +1.7 |
20% | 30% | 9 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 11% | -1.2 |
10% | 20% | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0% | -0.8 |
0% | 10% | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0% | -0.3 |
Close Gms | 47 | 24 | 23 | 0 | 51% | -3.3 |
Win Lk Comparison
FUTURE ENDEAVORS
Conf | Record | C-Rec | Tot Rat | rk | Adj Rat | rk | Res Rat | rk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B10-West | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0.43 | 25 | 0.39 | 25 | 0.79 | 22 |
# Tms | Prj Rec | Prj C-Rec | Adj Off | rk | Adj Def | rk | Prj SOS | rk |
129 | 8-4 | 5-4 | 1.06 | 52 | 0.68 | 4 | 0.20 | 41 |
Perf W | 1 Loss | Bowl | Ret Off | rk | Ret Def | rk | Rec 3yr | rk |
0.1% | 1.7% | 91.8% | 6 | 74 | 7 | 34 | 85.05 | 34 |
Gm | Wk | Date | H/V | Opponent | Opp Rk | FCS | C-Gm | Prj Lk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 2 | 09/03 | N | LSU | 3 | ~ | ~ | 25% |
2 | 3 | 09/10 | H | Akron | 124 | ~ | ~ | 95% |
3 | 4 | 09/17 | H | GeorgiaState | 124 | ~ | ~ | 95% |
4 | 5 | 09/24 | V | MichiganState | 10 | ~ | Y | 38% |
5 | 6 | 10/01 | V | Michigan | 10 | ~ | Y | 38% |
6 | 8 | 10/15 | H | OhioState | 11 | ~ | Y | 39% |
7 | 9 | 10/22 | V | Iowa | 31 | ~ | Y | 56% |
8 | 10 | 10/29 | H | Nebraska | 39 | ~ | Y | 61% |
9 | 11 | 11/05 | V | Northwestern | 44 | ~ | Y | 64% |
10 | 12 | 11/12 | H | Illinois | 92 | ~ | Y | 86% |
11 | 13 | 11/19 | V | Purdue | 70 | ~ | Y | 79% |
12 | 14 | 11/26 | H | Minnesota | 64 | ~ | Y | 78% |
Opp Rk | Team | B10 Avg | Opp %ile |
---|---|---|---|
Top 12 | 4 | 1.6 | 90% |
Top 25 | 4 | 2.3 | 80% |
Top 51 | 7 | 6.0 | 60% |
Bot 25 | 2 | 1.3 | 20% |
Aside from cheese curds, failed NFL running backs, and beer, Wisconsin is probably best known for having a stellar home field advantage (which is why trash teams like Iowa and jNW have such a hard time winning there).
HFA is a concept that everyone is familiar with (and unique to "intangibles," agrees that it actually exists), but it's a bit difficult to nail down exactly. For football, a default assumption of 3-pts is usually pretty good and honestly will serve you just fine. Since I like to make things difficult for myself, I use something a bit more complicated than that.
After much trial-and-error, I've settled on a decent solution: I use the MOV in conference home games (over the last five years) to provide my estimate for HFA. It seems to do the job. And because I am a generous soul, I've chosen to show my data of how that looks over time:
Some clarifications:
"Home" refers to all home games. It averages a higher average MOV, because Ohio State isn't about to visit Akron in a home-and-home.
"Err" refers to the difference between the actual MOV and a "neutral-site-expected" MOV. It's a useful check as to whether my home field adjustments are actually doing their job.
"C-Hm MOV" is what I use for home field adjustments, though again with the caveat that I use 5-yr averages to help smooth things out. I'm happy to see it hovers around 3.4-pts, which seems perfectly reasonable.
I've also got home field adjustments for my "resume" ratings, which are only W/L based. As such, they don't really scale to point values, but they are needed for proper site-adjusted ratings. You can see them below:
For your amusement, I've also included HFA ratings for each FBS team (since 1990). The HFA calculated here is based on the difference between the actual home MOV and the "neutral-site-expected" MOV. Higher value means your team wins by more than expected (thus the "home-field-advantage").
Sorted by conference HFA. Please take note and laugh at Georgia.
Team | # Hm | # C-Hm | HFA (pts) | C-HFA (pts) |
---|---|---|---|---|
NotreDame | 160 | 0 | 2.81 | Eff ND |
Army | 118 | 25 | 4.77 | 7.52 |
Rice | 138 | 100 | 4.17 | 6.63 |
LouisianaTech | 105 | 64 | 5.63 | 6.15 |
Wisconsin | 158 | 100 | 4.83 | 5.90 |
NorthTexas | 100 | 71 | 4.98 | 5.46 |
IowaState | 141 | 102 | 5.63 | 5.38 |
Syracuse | 148 | 88 | 5.55 | 5.37 |
Nevada | 123 | 87 | 4.55 | 5.37 |
BoiseState | 109 | 75 | 4.68 | 5.37 |
EastCarolina | 131 | 72 | 3.00 | 5.31 |
Hawaii | 181 | 106 | 5.20 | 5.26 |
NorthernIllinois | 115 | 84 | 4.66 | 5.20 |
OklahomaState | 140 | 102 | 5.92 | 5.16 |
Marshall | 96 | 82 | 4.65 | 5.00 |
TexasTech | 141 | 99 | 4.58 | 4.96 |
Colorado | 146 | 103 | 4.85 | 4.92 |
Vanderbilt | 151 | 102 | 4.37 | 4.89 |
Missouri | 143 | 98 | 5.52 | 4.89 |
KansasState | 150 | 100 | 5.70 | 4.87 |
Tulsa | 134 | 82 | 3.80 | 4.65 |
ArkansasState | 101 | 68 | 3.34 | 4.60 |
Texas | 148 | 95 | 3.82 | 4.51 |
KentState | 121 | 107 | 3.87 | 4.50 |
Arkansas | 124 | 84 | 4.02 | 4.49 |
Houston | 139 | 97 | 4.21 | 4.24 |
NewMexico | 143 | 98 | 3.24 | 4.24 |
ArizonaState | 157 | 110 | 5.15 | 4.21 |
CentralMichigan | 123 | 107 | 3.27 | 4.16 |
Wyoming | 136 | 99 | 4.33 | 4.13 |
MichiganState | 166 | 105 | 3.90 | 4.11 |
MississippiState | 148 | 101 | 4.15 | 4.07 |
OregonState | 140 | 108 | 5.38 | 4.06 |
Minnesota | 154 | 104 | 5.37 | 4.03 |
WakeForest | 137 | 101 | 3.11 | 3.89 |
UNLV | 137 | 95 | 3.84 | 3.85 |
Maryland | 142 | 100 | 4.17 | 3.84 |
UtahState | 121 | 82 | 2.55 | 3.82 |
Washington | 161 | 109 | 4.36 | 3.80 |
UTEP | 132 | 103 | 3.73 | 3.77 |
ColoradoState | 127 | 101 | 4.05 | 3.75 |
Akron | 118 | 96 | 3.09 | 3.68 |
Kansas | 147 | 103 | 4.65 | 3.66 |
Ohio | 118 | 104 | 4.41 | 3.64 |
Cincinnati | 134 | 69 | 4.26 | 3.62 |
BYU | 150 | 82 | 2.96 | 3.57 |
WestVirginia | 154 | 88 | 3.39 | 3.57 |
Clemson | 147 | 102 | 3.58 | 3.56 |
Nebraska | 169 | 102 | 4.32 | 3.53 |
MiamiOH | 126 | 104 | 3.33 | 3.53 |
Arizona | 156 | 111 | 4.27 | 3.51 |
CentralFlorida | 93 | 58 | 3.12 | 3.46 |
Mississippi | 147 | 97 | 3.56 | 3.45 |
EasternMichigan | 118 | 102 | 3.26 | 3.45 |
GeorgiaTech | 145 | 104 | 2.75 | 3.44 |
WashingtonState | 134 | 108 | 4.07 | 3.44 |
SanJoseState | 112 | 95 | 3.19 | 3.41 |
FresnoState | 142 | 104 | 4.51 | 3.41 |
FloridaState | 147 | 97 | 3.78 | 3.37 |
Iowa | 156 | 105 | 4.45 | 3.36 |
Indiana | 149 | 102 | 4.76 | 3.34 |
Tulane | 137 | 74 | 3.54 | 3.33 |
California | 148 | 108 | 4.59 | 3.33 |
SanDiegoState | 141 | 101 | 3.09 | 3.24 |
SMU | 141 | 100 | 3.67 | 3.19 |
NewMexicoState | 125 | 86 | 3.93 | 3.15 |
Kentucky | 157 | 103 | 4.02 | 3.10 |
Rutgers | 135 | 88 | 2.72 | 3.07 |
PennState | 166 | 92 | 4.56 | 3.07 |
BostonCollege | 147 | 92 | 2.84 | 3.07 |
TexasAM | 153 | 100 | 5.46 | 3.04 |
UCLA | 158 | 109 | 4.26 | 3.01 |
Purdue | 156 | 103 | 4.14 | 2.98 |
Auburn | 162 | 99 | 2.86 | 2.96 |
NorthCarolina | 146 | 102 | 3.48 | 2.90 |
Tennessee | 170 | 104 | 3.40 | 2.87 |
Oklahoma | 152 | 96 | 4.24 | 2.82 |
Pittsburgh | 154 | 87 | 2.86 | 2.78 |
TCU | 140 | 101 | 2.52 | 2.76 |
Memphis | 142 | 74 | 2.15 | 2.68 |
Temple | 127 | 80 | 2.90 | 2.60 |
Baylor | 140 | 102 | 3.52 | 2.58 |
Miami | 145 | 90 | 2.99 | 2.56 |
Virginia | 151 | 104 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
SouthCarolina | 157 | 95 | 3.88 | 2.52 |
Michigan | 172 | 104 | 2.83 | 2.51 |
Stanford | 155 | 110 | 2.26 | 2.45 |
OhioState | 174 | 105 | 1.94 | 2.45 |
WesternMichigan | 119 | 106 | 2.05 | 2.32 |
Northwestern | 148 | 103 | 2.25 | 2.29 |
Toledo | 136 | 102 | 1.70 | 2.27 |
SouthernMississippi | 119 | 74 | 3.47 | 2.20 |
BallState | 117 | 105 | 2.59 | 2.15 |
Navy | 112 | 4 | -0.81 | 2.10 |
AirForce | 139 | 100 | 1.94 | 2.04 |
BowlingGreen | 124 | 102 | 2.43 | 2.04 |
Illinois | 153 | 105 | 4.02 | 2.01 |
Duke | 139 | 100 | 2.35 | 2.00 |
Utah | 143 | 104 | 2.17 | 1.96 |
USC | 160 | 108 | 2.85 | 1.84 |
Oregon | 155 | 109 | 3.44 | 1.59 |
NorthCarolinaState | 143 | 102 | 2.58 | 1.53 |
Florida | 155 | 91 | 3.01 | 1.44 |
VirginiaTech | 151 | 88 | 2.20 | 0.97 |
LSU | 167 | 104 | 2.70 | 0.71 |
Alabama | 143 | 94 | -0.38 | 0.53 |
Louisville | 144 | 71 | 1.47 | 0.40 |
LouisianaLafayette | 110 | 63 | 1.62 | 0.16 |
Georgia | 149 | 92 | 1.39 | -0.17 |
Connect with Off Tackle Empire