FanPost

Hoegher's 2016 Previews: WISCONSIN

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

Wish me luck, I'm hoping to have a lease signed by mid-day today, but need to ensure it isn't taken by that time.

More information can be found here: [OTE PRIMER], [DROPBOX]

PREVIOUS ACHIEVEMENTS

Overall Ratings

Off/Def Ratings

W%/Luck Ratings

RECORD COMPARISON, 2006-2015

Tm Rk Gms W L T W%
5 219 159 60 0 73%
10 201 106 95 0 53%
15 173 81 92 0 47%
20 190 67 123 0 35%
25 163 50 113 0 31%
30 162 36 126 0 22%
35 156 38 118 0 24%
40 160 31 129 0 19%
45 142 22 120 0 15%
50 140 17 123 0 12%
55 155 26 129 0 17%
60 135 12 123 0 9%
65 134 17 117 0 13%
70 111 7 104 0 6%
75 121 7 114 0 6%
80 110 6 104 0 5%
85 121 7 114 0 6%
90 116 2 114 0 2%
95 102 1 101 0 1%
100 90 0 90 0 0%
Avg Gms W L T W%
22.1 34 8 26 0 24%

Record vs Top 25

Lo Hi Gms W L T W% +/-
99% 100% 19 19 0 0 100% +0.1
90% 99% 40 38 2 0 95% -0.2
80% 90% 24 22 2 0 92% +1.4
70% 80% 10 6 4 0 60% -1.5
60% 70% 4 2 2 0 50% -0.6
50% 60% 8 6 2 0 75% +1.6
40% 50% 3 0 3 0 0% -1.4
30% 40% 6 4 2 0 67% +1.7
20% 30% 9 1 8 0 11% -1.2
10% 20% 5 0 5 0 0% -0.8
0% 10% 5 0 5 0 0% -0.3
Close Gms 47 24 23 0 51% -3.3

Win Lk Comparison

FUTURE ENDEAVORS

Conf Record C-Rec Tot Rat rk Adj Rat rk Res Rat rk
B10-West 0-0 0-0 0.43 25 0.39 25 0.79 22
# Tms Prj Rec Prj C-Rec Adj Off rk Adj Def rk Prj SOS rk
129 8-4 5-4 1.06 52 0.68 4 0.20 41
Perf W 1 Loss Bowl Ret Off rk Ret Def rk Rec 3yr rk
0.1% 1.7% 91.8% 6 74 7 34 85.05 34

Gm Wk Date H/V Opponent Opp Rk FCS C-Gm Prj Lk
1 2 09/03 N LSU 3 ~ ~ 25%
2 3 09/10 H Akron 124 ~ ~ 95%
3 4 09/17 H GeorgiaState 124 ~ ~ 95%
4 5 09/24 V MichiganState 10 ~ Y 38%
5 6 10/01 V Michigan 10 ~ Y 38%
6 8 10/15 H OhioState 11 ~ Y 39%
7 9 10/22 V Iowa 31 ~ Y 56%
8 10 10/29 H Nebraska 39 ~ Y 61%
9 11 11/05 V Northwestern 44 ~ Y 64%
10 12 11/12 H Illinois 92 ~ Y 86%
11 13 11/19 V Purdue 70 ~ Y 79%
12 14 11/26 H Minnesota 64 ~ Y 78%
Opp Rk Team B10 Avg Opp %ile
Top 12 4 1.6 90%
Top 25 4 2.3 80%
Top 51 7 6.0 60%
Bot 25 2 1.3 20%

Aside from cheese curds, failed NFL running backs, and beer, Wisconsin is probably best known for having a stellar home field advantage (which is why trash teams like Iowa and jNW have such a hard time winning there).

HFA is a concept that everyone is familiar with (and unique to "intangibles," agrees that it actually exists), but it's a bit difficult to nail down exactly. For football, a default assumption of 3-pts is usually pretty good and honestly will serve you just fine. Since I like to make things difficult for myself, I use something a bit more complicated than that.

After much trial-and-error, I've settled on a decent solution: I use the MOV in conference home games (over the last five years) to provide my estimate for HFA. It seems to do the job. And because I am a generous soul, I've chosen to show my data of how that looks over time:

Some clarifications:

"Home" refers to all home games. It averages a higher average MOV, because Ohio State isn't about to visit Akron in a home-and-home.

"Err" refers to the difference between the actual MOV and a "neutral-site-expected" MOV. It's a useful check as to whether my home field adjustments are actually doing their job.

"C-Hm MOV" is what I use for home field adjustments, though again with the caveat that I use 5-yr averages to help smooth things out. I'm happy to see it hovers around 3.4-pts, which seems perfectly reasonable.

I've also got home field adjustments for my "resume" ratings, which are only W/L based. As such, they don't really scale to point values, but they are needed for proper site-adjusted ratings. You can see them below:

For your amusement, I've also included HFA ratings for each FBS team (since 1990). The HFA calculated here is based on the difference between the actual home MOV and the "neutral-site-expected" MOV. Higher value means your team wins by more than expected (thus the "home-field-advantage").

Sorted by conference HFA. Please take note and laugh at Georgia.

Team # Hm # C-Hm HFA (pts) C-HFA (pts)
NotreDame 160 0 2.81 Eff ND
Army 118 25 4.77 7.52
Rice 138 100 4.17 6.63
LouisianaTech 105 64 5.63 6.15
Wisconsin 158 100 4.83 5.90
NorthTexas 100 71 4.98 5.46
IowaState 141 102 5.63 5.38
Syracuse 148 88 5.55 5.37
Nevada 123 87 4.55 5.37
BoiseState 109 75 4.68 5.37
EastCarolina 131 72 3.00 5.31
Hawaii 181 106 5.20 5.26
NorthernIllinois 115 84 4.66 5.20
OklahomaState 140 102 5.92 5.16
Marshall 96 82 4.65 5.00
TexasTech 141 99 4.58 4.96
Colorado 146 103 4.85 4.92
Vanderbilt 151 102 4.37 4.89
Missouri 143 98 5.52 4.89
KansasState 150 100 5.70 4.87
Tulsa 134 82 3.80 4.65
ArkansasState 101 68 3.34 4.60
Texas 148 95 3.82 4.51
KentState 121 107 3.87 4.50
Arkansas 124 84 4.02 4.49
Houston 139 97 4.21 4.24
NewMexico 143 98 3.24 4.24
ArizonaState 157 110 5.15 4.21
CentralMichigan 123 107 3.27 4.16
Wyoming 136 99 4.33 4.13
MichiganState 166 105 3.90 4.11
MississippiState 148 101 4.15 4.07
OregonState 140 108 5.38 4.06
Minnesota 154 104 5.37 4.03
WakeForest 137 101 3.11 3.89
UNLV 137 95 3.84 3.85
Maryland 142 100 4.17 3.84
UtahState 121 82 2.55 3.82
Washington 161 109 4.36 3.80
UTEP 132 103 3.73 3.77
ColoradoState 127 101 4.05 3.75
Akron 118 96 3.09 3.68
Kansas 147 103 4.65 3.66
Ohio 118 104 4.41 3.64
Cincinnati 134 69 4.26 3.62
BYU 150 82 2.96 3.57
WestVirginia 154 88 3.39 3.57
Clemson 147 102 3.58 3.56
Nebraska 169 102 4.32 3.53
MiamiOH 126 104 3.33 3.53
Arizona 156 111 4.27 3.51
CentralFlorida 93 58 3.12 3.46
Mississippi 147 97 3.56 3.45
EasternMichigan 118 102 3.26 3.45
GeorgiaTech 145 104 2.75 3.44
WashingtonState 134 108 4.07 3.44
SanJoseState 112 95 3.19 3.41
FresnoState 142 104 4.51 3.41
FloridaState 147 97 3.78 3.37
Iowa 156 105 4.45 3.36
Indiana 149 102 4.76 3.34
Tulane 137 74 3.54 3.33
California 148 108 4.59 3.33
SanDiegoState 141 101 3.09 3.24
SMU 141 100 3.67 3.19
NewMexicoState 125 86 3.93 3.15
Kentucky 157 103 4.02 3.10
Rutgers 135 88 2.72 3.07
PennState 166 92 4.56 3.07
BostonCollege 147 92 2.84 3.07
TexasAM 153 100 5.46 3.04
UCLA 158 109 4.26 3.01
Purdue 156 103 4.14 2.98
Auburn 162 99 2.86 2.96
NorthCarolina 146 102 3.48 2.90
Tennessee 170 104 3.40 2.87
Oklahoma 152 96 4.24 2.82
Pittsburgh 154 87 2.86 2.78
TCU 140 101 2.52 2.76
Memphis 142 74 2.15 2.68
Temple 127 80 2.90 2.60
Baylor 140 102 3.52 2.58
Miami 145 90 2.99 2.56
Virginia 151 104 3.50 2.55
SouthCarolina 157 95 3.88 2.52
Michigan 172 104 2.83 2.51
Stanford 155 110 2.26 2.45
OhioState 174 105 1.94 2.45
WesternMichigan 119 106 2.05 2.32
Northwestern 148 103 2.25 2.29
Toledo 136 102 1.70 2.27
SouthernMississippi 119 74 3.47 2.20
BallState 117 105 2.59 2.15
Navy 112 4 -0.81 2.10
AirForce 139 100 1.94 2.04
BowlingGreen 124 102 2.43 2.04
Illinois 153 105 4.02 2.01
Duke 139 100 2.35 2.00
Utah 143 104 2.17 1.96
USC 160 108 2.85 1.84
Oregon 155 109 3.44 1.59
NorthCarolinaState 143 102 2.58 1.53
Florida 155 91 3.01 1.44
VirginiaTech 151 88 2.20 0.97
LSU 167 104 2.70 0.71
Alabama 143 94 -0.38 0.53
Louisville 144 71 1.47 0.40
LouisianaLafayette 110 63 1.62 0.16
Georgia 149 92 1.39 -0.17

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