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NCAA College Football Rankings: Stew System - Week 3

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Some strength of schedule is factored in, and Oh, Dear Lord, Iowa!

Ohio State v Oklahoma Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images

This week I added a portion of of my strength of schedule factor into the formula, so there are some pretty wild swings (oh, hey there Iowa). But I like having as much of the algorithm included as early as possible so we can be as consistent as possible throughout the season. Minnesota is the only team holding us back from the whole algorithm. Because of course Minnesota is ruining things.

I’ve also included last week’s ranking and the delta.

Team Ratings:

B1G Thoughts:

  • OSU maintains numero uno status. They are murderating good teams. Get fucked, Ohio State.
  • Michigan takes a bit of a tumble from 2nd all the way to 5th. with SoS factored.
  • And UNL is in the top 5. Kill me now.
  • Wisconsin at number 10, but look at the actual rating and there’s a pretty giant gap between them and Michigan, so no, you’re not elite, Speth.
  • Watch out, it’s Indiana! And lots of people have ragged on their non-conference scheduling. But it’s really not that bad. It’s not good, but it’s been about the same, so far, as Louisville’s.
  • Minnesota in the top 25? Really? Goddammit.
  • Pretty big drop to PSU at 43, whose schedule is helping them a bit, so far.
  • What’s this, MSU so far down? Yes, yes they are. They’ve only played two teams, looking not great against FCS is really what’s dragging them down here.
  • Wait, what? This can’t be right, having Rutgers up here. Hey, it’s early in the season. 2 wins and their schedule is actually helping them a bit. Playing Washington is more than balancing out FCS.
  • Yes, Maryland, you are 3-0. But that schedule. Oh, man, that is one awful schedule. Bottom 5 so far in the entire country.
  • Illinois may not be very good, but they’ve also played a pretty hard schedule, and while getting murdered by WMU is less than ideal, it’s also not a dagger to the program.
  • Northwestern got the much needed win, and move up a bit, but does anyone really think they’ll be moving up a whole lot?
  • Purdue is really, really bad.
  • And finally, not so mercifully, we come to Iowa. Look at that delta. From 9th, all the way down to 112. Don’t lose to FCS, folks, and just don’t ever, ever schedule NDSU. But the real culprit in the drop is the SoS. Without SoS Iowa would have dropped from 9th to ~40th. But Iowa’s SoS, so far, is laughably, hilariously bad. It is by far, BY FAR, the worst in the entire country. There is a 23 point rating game in SoS between Iowa and the next worst SoS (Toledo). Maryland is the 5th worst SoS in the country, and Iowa is 45 points worse. And it’s not going to get any better for Iowa for quite a while. It’s going to take a WHOLE lot of wins, by a WHOLE lot of points to make up for that weak-ass SoS, and if they play like they did on Saturday, it’s going to be a very, very long season for the Hawkeye faithful. Hooray for lifetime contracts! I need a drink.

Other Thoughts:

  • Boise State just keeps rolling along.
  • Louisville is scary.
  • Saban is going to take this as proof that he was right to be super disappointed in his team. 7th! Behind notable has-beens like UNL!
  • Chips!! Lots of people talking about the mighty boat rowers of WMU, but the team from Central Michigan really doing some good work.
  • Missouri, of all 1-2 teams, is still in the top 25. Like Oklahoma and USC, both 1-2 teams rated pretty high, Missouri has an outstanding SoS, so far. But unlike those other two, they still have a positive MoV (+24!). Pretty hard to be +24 in 3 games with 2 losses.

Big Risers:

  • KSU shot up 89 spots with the inclusion of SoS, but part of that is that they only have two games. Their SoS isn’t that great. And their MoV is still a ridiculous +43 despite a loss.
  • Akron also shot up over 50 spots, partially due to a huge win over Marshall, and partially because they were so low after getting shitstomped by Wisconsin. \

Falling Down:

  • Oh Iowa. I described this a bit above. But this is what happens when you lose to FCS and are mandated to play Iowa State every year. There is literally no upside.
  • Marshall had only played 1 game, and then got their throats punched by the Zips. Freefall commences.
  • Like the previous two, being rated really high, there was really only one direction to go, and losing the 2nd game accounts for half of the data points means a big drop.
  • New Mexico State beat New Mexico. They are both terrible, terrible teams. If you’re boasting about a win, or even go down big against one of these teams, you’ve already lost.

Conference Ratings:

  • Well, it’s been a good run, B1G. SEC back on top. This is probably Iowa’s fault.