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NCAA College Football Rankings: Stew System - Week 4


NCAA Football: Penn State at Michigan Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

Finally got the full algorithm installed (thanks again, Gophers). There are still some pretty wild swings because teams have played only 3-4 games. But even still, I’m coming pretty close at approaching the Massey Composite. I’m pretty sure that I already don’t have a single outlier (more than 2 standard deviations away from the mean). Please, though, if you see something that looks way off, let me know.

Team Ratings:

B1G Thoughts:

  • Welp, Michigan’s beatdown of the Nits vaults them to the top of the heap. Congrats everyone, Michigan is back.
  • Ohio State did beat Bye, but it wasn’t enough to hold on to the top spot.
  • Wisconsin beat MSU, badly, and falls? Yup. Deal with it. Remember, MSU may not be very good (at least right now).
  • UNL has looked pretty solid, and has taken care of business. But playing jNW really is a bit of a ding on the ol’ SoS.
  • Minnesota struggling a bit, one of the worst rated undefeateds, which brings us to Maryland, their creampuff SoS allows them to be 3-0, but still can’t crack the top 25.
  • Indiana, losing sucks, I’m sorry, but still in the top 40, but your SoS is surprisingly strong. Cleanup the turnovers a bit, and you’re on your way to consecutive bowls.
  • It’s the mushy middle. Purdue, MSU, Rutgers, and Iowa all clustered. Looks at those 4 teams, it just seems wrong, but here we are.
  • Purdue?!? PURDUE!! That’s a pretty solid win over a not overly terrible Nevada team.
  • MSU has looked mediocre against a bad Furman, beat what looks to be a bad Notre Dame, and got stomped by Wisconsin. Pretty inauspicious start, there.
  • Rutgers? Yeah, their SoS is one of the strongest in the conference. I wouldn’t count on them staying this high, so enjoy it, fans.
  • Iowa had a super rise with the win, but still have looked quite bad the last two weeks, and their SoS is still really bad (though, it’s no longer the worst in the country, just the 4th worst).
  • PSU at 2-2 has a -15 MoV, which is bad. But their SoS is the best in the conference.
  • IL took the week off and rose 11 spots, not much really to see yet, though.
  • jNW, your team is bad. But 1-3 with only a -3 MoV, and a solid SoS despite the FCS team. It may not be quite so bad as you’re fearing.

Other thoughts:

  • Clemson plays Louisville Saturday night. A matchup of two top 5 teams, with amazing QBs, should be one hell of a fun game to watch.
  • Tennessee the top SEC team?!? No Way! #VolTwitter gotta be happy, and beating FL for the first time in over a decade.
  • Saban, though, all the way down at 9?!? Blood and fire will reign.
  • Oregon State is so bad, that the beating Boise State put on them dropped them 8 spots.
  • Houston looks to be on cruise control until the showdown with Louisville. I’m of the opinion that G5 schools don’t really have a shot at the playoff, but man, beating OK and this Louisville team, while going undefeated would be one hell of a resume. But Louisville probably gonna beat them, making the whole thing moot.
  • Is Wake Forest good? Seems like they might be good.
  • 5 G5 teams before the first Big 12 team. And then it’s Baylor. What a horrible conference.
  • I think the run of NIU dominance in the MAC may be over. 0-4 to start the year.

Big Risers:

  • Purdue and Iowa shooting up the rankings after wins over terrible teams? Yup, remember, it’s still early, and they were near the bottom of the rankings, lots of room to go up. Iowa playing yo-yo, going from #9 in the country, all the way down to #112, and then up again to #65. Fun times...
  • Ole Miss shooting up after the huge win over Georgia. But I still have them quite a ways from their lofty AP ranking. Also, why the hell was/is Georgia ranked so high?

Falling Down:

  • Fuck Notre Dame. We’ll see how well they do with the DC that wasn’t good enough for Purdue.
  • Chips, it’s not good to lose to this UVA team.
  • USC has played the toughest schedule in the country, and it has not been kind to them.

Projected Playoff Teams:

Now, for DJ’s article earlier in the week I just submitted my top 4 teams, as was requested. But I’m going to project forward here. One team per conference with preference given to conference champs.

  1. Ohio State Buckeyes
  2. Clemson Tigers
  3. Tennessee Volunteers
  4. Stanford Cardinal

Conference Ratings:

  • B1G back on top, baby!
  • ACC over the SEC? Yup, though the margin is razor thin.
  • LOLOLOL the AAC is higher than the Big 12. Also, the American is pretty damn decent.