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College Football Rankings: Week 5

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Look at the trend.

NCAA Football: Central Florida at Cincinnati Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Please feel free to compare this to the Massey Composite.

2017 Stew Football Ranking: Week 6

Conference Team Wins Losses Adj. Ave. Rat Rank Last Week Change
Conference Team Wins Losses Adj. Ave. Rat Rank Last Week Change
American Central Florida 4 0 86.17 1 1 0
SEC Alabama 6 0 86.02 2 2 0
ACC Clemson 6 0 85.52 3 4 1
Big Ten Penn State 6 0 83.76 4 7 3
Big 12 Texas Christian 5 0 83.13 5 3 -2
SEC Georgia 6 0 82.97 6 6 0
Big Ten Ohio State 5 1 79.62 7 9 2
Big Ten Wisconsin 5 0 75.65 8 8 0
ACC Miami (FL) 4 0 74.3 9 5 -4
Pac-12 Washington 6 0 70.71 10 14 4
Independent Notre Dame 5 1 69.75 11 11 0
Big 12 Oklahoma State 4 1 67.78 12 16 4
Pac-12 Washington State 6 0 66.86 13 30 17
Pac-12 Southern California 5 1 66.72 14 12 -2
Big Ten Michigan State 4 1 66.44 15 27 12
Big Ten Michigan 4 1 64.07 16 10 -6
Big Ten Iowa 4 2 63.6 17 21 4
Big 12 Oklahoma 4 1 63.31 18 13 -5
Mountain West San Diego State 6 0 63.23 19 24 5
American Houston 4 1 63.03 20 34 14
Big 12 Texas Tech 4 1 60.04 21 26 5
ACC North Carolina State 5 1 59.89 22 35 13
SEC Auburn 5 1 59.82 23 22 -1
American Navy 5 0 59.67 24 20 -4
Pac-12 Stanford 4 2 58.34 25 38 13
SEC Mississippi State 3 2 57.51 26 28 2
ACC Virginia Tech 5 1 57.09 27 19 -8
Big Ten Purdue 3 2 55.95 28 29 1
American Southern Methodist 4 2 55 29 17 -12
Mountain West Boise State 3 2 54.19 30 32 2
American Memphis 4 1 54.18 31 41 10
Pac-12 Oregon 4 2 53.08 32 23 -9
Big 12 Texas 3 2 52.01 33 45 12
Big Ten Maryland 3 2 51.88 34 15 -19
ACC Wake Forest 4 2 51.67 35 31 -4
SEC South Carolina 4 2 51.65 36 43 7
ACC Virginia 4 1 51.35 37 63 26
SEC Florida 3 2 50.32 38 18 -20
Big 12 Iowa State 3 2 49.68 39 81 42
C-USA Southern Mississippi 3 2 49.59 40 67 27
Big Ten Indiana 3 2 48.91 41 42 1
SEC Texas A&M 4 2 48.78 42 47 5
SEC Kentucky 5 1 48.7 43 39 -4
ACC Florida State 1 3 48.55 44 33 -11
American South Florida 5 0 48.47 45 49 4
Sun Belt Troy 4 1 47.98 46 57 11
Pac-12 UCLA 3 2 47.44 47 44 -3
MAC Western Michigan 4 2 47.33 48 52 4
ACC Louisville 4 2 46.72 49 37 -12
Pac-12 Utah 4 1 45.6 50 40 -10
ACC Duke 4 2 45.33 51 36 -15
Big 12 West Virginia 3 2 45.32 52 46 -6
American Tulane 3 2 45.23 53 59 6
Pac-12 Arizona 3 2 45.07 54 64 10
Mountain West Colorado State 4 2 44.79 55 61 6
Big Ten Minnesota 3 2 44.66 56 25 -31
ACC Georgia Tech 3 1 44.5 57 56 -1
Mountain West Fresno State 3 2 44.08 58 55 -3
Sun Belt Appalachian State 3 2 43.44 59 60 1
Big Ten Nebraska 3 3 43.1 60 50 -10
SEC Louisiana State 4 2 43 61 68 7
MAC Toledo 4 1 42.54 62 72 10
C-USA Florida Atlantic 3 3 42.45 63 70 7
Pac-12 Arizona State 2 3 42.39 64 62 -2
C-USA Marshall 4 1 41.6 65 54 -11
Independent Army 4 2 40.94 66 76 10
Pac-12 Colorado 3 3 40.93 67 58 -9
C-USA Texas-San Antonio 3 1 39.64 68 48 -20
SEC Vanderbilt 3 3 39.63 69 53 -16
Big Ten Northwestern 2 3 38.94 70 71 1
SEC Tennessee 3 2 38.68 71 69 -2
C-USA North Texas 3 2 36.24 72 77 5
ACC Syracuse 3 3 35.04 73 89 16
ACC Boston College 2 4 35 74 74 0
MAC Northern Illinois 3 2 34.92 75 78 3
Mountain West Air Force 1 4 34.35 76 75 -1
MAC Ohio 4 2 33.98 77 65 -12
Big 12 Kansas State 3 2 33.35 78 66 -12
SEC Arkansas 2 3 33.05 79 51 -28
MAC Buffalo 3 3 32.7 80 80 0
MAC Akron 3 3 32.28 81 99 18
Pac-12 California 3 3 31.1 82 79 -3
Mountain West Wyoming 3 2 30.49 83 85 2
MAC Eastern Michigan 2 3 30.05 84 83 -1
Sun Belt Louisiana-Monroe 3 2 29.67 85 100 15
Mountain West Utah State 3 3 28.74 86 82 -4
Mountain West New Mexico 3 2 28.67 87 88 1
American Cincinnati 2 4 27.91 88 87 -1
Big Ten Illinois 2 3 27.38 89 73 -16
Sun Belt Arkansas State 2 2 26.85 90 86 -4
C-USA Middle Tennessee State 3 3 26.37 91 106 15
ACC Pittsburgh 2 4 24.53 92 91 -1
Big Ten Rutgers 1 4 24.48 93 95 2
SEC Mississippi 2 3 24.09 94 93 -1
Mountain West Nevada-Las Vegas 2 3 23.78 95 94 -1
American Temple 3 3 23.42 96 104 8
C-USA Louisiana Tech 3 3 22.97 97 84 -13
American Tulsa 1 5 22.65 98 92 -6
ACC North Carolina 1 5 21.93 99 90 -9
Sun Belt New Mexico State 2 4 21.11 100 96 -4
C-USA Western Kentucky 3 2 18.22 101 98 -3
MAC Miami (OH) 2 4 16.53 102 97 -5
SEC Missouri 1 4 16.3 103 110 7
MAC Central Michigan 3 3 15.55 104 116 12
Sun Belt Idaho 2 3 14.24 105 102 -3
C-USA Florida International 3 2 13.55 106 103 -3
Pac-12 Oregon State 1 5 13.05 107 109 2
Big 12 Baylor 0 5 12.15 108 101 -7
American Connecticut 1 3 11.77 109 105 -4
Sun Belt Louisiana-Lafayette 2 3 11.29 110 120 10
Independent Brigham Young 1 5 10.32 111 107 -4
Big 12 Kansas 1 4 10.01 112 108 -4
Sun Belt Georgia State 2 2 9.1 113 118 5
Mountain West Nevada 1 5 7.91 114 122 8
Sun Belt South Alabama 1 4 6.8 115 112 -3
Mountain West Hawaii 2 4 6.03 116 111 -5
C-USA Old Dominion 2 3 5.12 117 113 -4
MAC Kent State 1 5 4.02 118 115 -3
MAC Ball State 2 4 3.27 119 114 -5
Sun Belt Texas State 1 5 1.95 120 117 -3
Mountain West San Jose State 1 6 -0.71 121 119 -2
MAC Bowling Green State 1 5 -3.43 122 128 6
C-USA Rice 1 5 -4.83 123 123 0
American East Carolina 0 5 -6.63 124 121 -3
MAC Massachusetts 0 6 -7.43 125 124 -1
C-USA Texas-El Paso 0 6 -8.05 126 125 -1
Sun Belt Georgia Southern 0 4 -8.33 127 127 0
C-USA Charlotte 0 6 -11.07 128 126 -2
Everything looking good. Me

B1G Thoughts:

  • There’s starting to be a little separation, even in the top tier, as PSU stays undefeated and OSU’s loss to Oklahoma has not aged very well.
  • Fuck wisconsin, they are clownfraud trasch. Notice that while they are only ranked one ordinal spot lower than OSU, they are almost a full 4 rating points worse. The average difference between teams is about 0.75 rating points, so that’s a pretty significant drop.
  • I bet there was at least one Sparty fan who wanted to read this and complain about being rated below Michigan.
  • Statistical models seem to like Iowa quite a bit more than the human polls. #17 in my model, in the top 25 in the Massey Composite, and the highest ranked 2 loss team by a fairly significant margin.
  • I think I may have been the most optimistic about Purdue’s season this side of Matt Jones, and they’ve smashed even those. At this point it seems like not making a bowl would be disappointing, which is kinda nuts.
  • Maryland appears to be playing the role of crazy inconsistent team. No idea what to expect from them week-to-week. Stay away.
  • Indiana, perfectly mediocre.
  • Minnesota is not good. We knew this.
  • UNL is probably the most pleasant (for me) surprise team so far. Their skill positions have been pretty stellar for a while, and it sounded like they finally may have found a QB to run Riley’s preferred offense. Welp. Enjoy OSU.
  • jNW was supposed to contend for the West? Really? There’s still time to rack up wins for a bowl, as the division is putrid. Still, though, quite a bit of disappointment in the West.
  • Illinois, I don’t think Lovie Smith is really the answer, long term. But I do think he’s doing generally decent things with bringing in capable players. I think he finishes above last in the West at least one more time.

Other Thoughts:

  • Yes, yes, yes, UCF is still at the top. But it is coming back to the pack fairly quickly. Here is the difference between UCF and the 2nd place team since week two: 45.45, 16.3, 11.12, 0.15. I’m willing to bet that UCF is overtaken next week.
  • My model kind of always loves Navy, and I’m fine with that.
  • SMU’s turn around under Chad Morris has been quite impressive, I’d think he gets a call up to a P5 team after this season.
  • USF is getting a lot of love as a G5 darling, but they are not that good. I’m sorry, Thump.

High Risers:

  • Not much of a surprise, but ISU’s massive upset zooms them pretty far up the ranks.
  • Southern Miss seems to have been the beneficiary of their SoS getting a bit of a boost (their previous opponents all doing fairly well).
  • Bronco Mendenhall seems to have UVA in good position to get to bowl eligibility in his 2nd year. Now just watch out for the dirty play.

Free Fallers:

  • Minnesota got a bit of a double whammy as they got beat by Purdue, and a lot of previous opponents did poorly (having Oregon St. on the schedule is bad).
  • So, uh, Bert. Yeah, I think he survives this, but only because of his buyout.
  • Florida, getting beat by a team that got beat by Troy is gonna hurt.
  • Seems like UTSA and Southern Miss flip-flopped on one game, which seems a bit much, but here we are.

Stats, Elite, and Trasch:

  • Average rating: 38.47
  • Standard Deviation: 23.14
  • Elite teams (+2 stds dev from mean): 84.75
  1. UCF
  2. ‘Bama
  3. Clemson
  • Trasch (-2 stds dev from mean): -7.81
  1. UTEP
  2. Georgia Southern
  3. Charlotte
  • Spread: 97.24
  • Average Difference in Rating: 0.75