Back by no one’s demand except our fearless leader’s, here are your post-Week 8, 2018, OTE Big Ten Bowl Projections. As a general rule, I follow what Wikipedia tells me are the bowl selection orders by conference, try to keep up on who played whom last year or whatever, and snub other Big Ten teams at every turn.
A few notes:
- Big Ten bowls tend not to go for repeat games, attempting to fill each slot with at least 5 different teams over 6 years.
- If an ACC team is ranked higher than a B1G team, I think, they take the Citrus Bowl slot. Or something.
- The Music City and TaxSlayer Gator bowls take one Big Ten team and one ACC team among them to face an SEC team. Since a B1G team went to the Music City Bowl last year, look for that to flip this year.
- An asterisk denotes a team filling a slot outside its conference bowl affiliation. Two asterisks denotes a 5-7 team qualifying on APR. As there are 78 bowl slots, I figure there’ll be at least one team making that leap.
I’m so sorry:
|Bowl||Date||Location||Conf 1||Team 1||Conf 2||Team 2||Comments|
|Cotton||29-Dec||Arlington, TX||CFP 1||Alabama||CFP 4||Michigan||This is the darkest timeline.|
|Orange||29-Dec||Miami, FL||CFP 2||Clemson||CFP 3||Notre Dame||Go Clemson.|
|Sugar||1-Jan||New Orleans, LA||Big XII||Texas||SEC||LSU||Texas still back. LSU on the outside looking in unless they do something exciting against Bama, unless they edge 1-loss Michigan because "Bama did it, why can't LSU?"|
|Rose||1-Jan||Pasadena, CA||B1G||Ohio State||Pac-12||Washington||Ohio State will be a much more appealing Rose Bowl candidate than whatever tomato can Michigan steamrolls in the Big Ten championship. Winner of the Apple Cup currently has this slot from the Pac-12. I trust Washington more.|
|Peach||29-Dec||Atlanta, GA||At-large||Florida||At-large||Central Florida||
The question becomes if the committee (1) gifts Georgia a home game, (2) wants a UGA-OU rematch, and (3) wants Florida-UCF. I answered them how I want them answered.
|Citrus||1-Jan||Orlando, FL||SEC 2||Auburn||B1G||Iowa||I put Iowa second in my Power Poll rankings this week, so I can walk my talk and put them third in the Big Ten's bowl pecking order. We'll say Auburn is the fourth-best team in the SEC -- I couldn't give a shit less than I do.|
|Outback||1-Jan||Tampa, FL||B1G||Purdue||SEC (I)||Texas A&M||SURE! GOOD FOR YOU, PURDUE. All the way from "no bowl," apparently (I don't know why) to the Outback Bowl! For a good Harboring, I'll allow it. Could face CLANGA here; I'd put Auburn as a less-likely opponent.|
|Gator||31-Dec||Jacksonville, FL||SEC (I)||Mississippi State||ACC or B1G||wisconsin||It gets a little fuzzy down the line for Big Ten bowls, because each bowl would like to have at least 5 different teams in 6 years. So the badgers are out for the Florida bowls...right? WRONG! There's one they haven't been to! From experience, I can tell you that CLANGA in Jacksonville at noon is a hoot.|
|Holiday||31-Dec||San Diego, CA||B1G||Penn State||Pac-12 3||Oregon||No team in the Pac-12 South has fewer than 2 conference losses; Oregon gets a nod over Stanford, who we're not yet sure about (games vs Wazzu, UW back-to-back now). Crowded out of Florida, Penn State heads west.|
|Liberty||31-Dec||Memphis, TN||Big XII 5||Oklahoma State||SEC (I)||South Carolina||No change here.|
|Military||31-Dec||Annapolis, MD||ACC (II)||Boston College||AAC||South Florida||South Florida held off [/checks notes] UConn? Oof. Boston College moves here. Try not to think too much about it.|
|Redbox San Francisco||31-Dec||Santa Clara, CA||B1G||Northwestern||Pac-12 4||Utah||Pac-12 CCG loser Utah (now with tiebreaker on USC) tumbles here because, well, the Pac-12 North is four deep this year. But the San Francisco Bowl is not up on a Northwestern-Stanford matchup ahead of the same game in Palo Alto next August. NU might be 5-7 (come ON...they HAVE to beat MN and IL, right?), but that'd still be enough.|
|Sun||31-Dec||El Paso, TX||ACC (I)||Virginia Tech||Pac-12 5||Stanford||Stanford was here two years ago; they come back anyways. If you wanted to adjust the Pac-12 3-4-5 games, drop Oregon to San Francisco, bump Stanford to the Holiday and Utah here.|
|Belk||29-Dec||Charlotte, NC||SEC (I)||Kentucky||ACC (I)||North Carolina State||I will never buy that Kentucky is actually good at football. They are the Belk of SEC teams. Turns out the 'Pack was a fraud; no one cares that they're here.|
|Alamo||28-Dec||San Antonio, TX||Big XII 2||West Virginia||Pac-12 2||Washington State||West Virginia is left out of the Big XII CCG, and their reward is a high-flying shootout with similarly-jilted Wazzu. Let's get weird.|
|Arizona||28-Dec||Tucson, AZ||MWC 5||San Diego State||Sun Belt||Arkansas State||Arkansas State is on the right track. SDSU struggled with winless San Jose State, and the Arizona Bowl opts for new blood rather than a Utah State repeat.|
|Camping World||28-Dec||Orlando, FL||Big XII 3||Texas Tech||ACC (I)||Miami||No change here.|
|Music City||28-Dec||Nashville, TN||SEC (I)||Tennessee||ACC or B1G||Virginia||Virginia gets what I consider a better slot for the ACC by beating Duke, which is now 1-2 in the ACC. Sigh.|
|Texas||27-Dec||Houston, TX||Big XII 4||TCU||SEC (I)||Mizzou||Mizzou has the offense to run with anyone in the SEC, and they've got Vandy, Tenn., and Ark. on the schedule. They'll get a solid test from the Frogs' defense.|
|Pinstripe||27-Dec||New York City, NY||B1G||Michigan State||ACC (II)||Syracuse||Cuse survived UNC in 2OT, so they stay. Michigan State tumbles because right now you have to take Purdue to beat them, right?|
|Independence||27-Dec||Shreveport, LA||SEC (II)||Vanderbilt**||ACC (II)||Duke||Vanderbilt goes 5-7 and squeaks in on APR. SMART KID BOWL.|
|Cheez-It||26-Dec||Tempe, AZ||Big XII 6||Baylor||Pac-12 7||Colorado||Hey, an accidental Big XII redux! Sometimes the world works in mysterious ways, huh?|
|Quick Lane||26-Dec||Detroit, MI||B1G||Indiana||ACC (II)||Ohio||Indiana beats Maryland and Minnesota. They bowl. That's all I've got.|
|First Responder Bowl||26-Dec||Dallas, TX||B1G||Air Force**||C-USA||North Texas||Minnesota's out. Duh. UNT drops with their loss to UAB, but they'll still stay close to home, so that's nice. Air Force sneaks in at 5-7.|
|Hawaii||22-Dec||Honolulu, HI||MWC (I)||Hawaii||C-USA||UAB||Hawaii is fun again! UAB crawled back from the depths! That's enough.|
|Dollar General||22-Dec||Mobile, AL||MAC||Buffalo||Sun Belt||Troy||Jeez -- Buffalo might be legit. They can play one of the best in the Sun Belt for their troubles. This will be an excellent game, at least on paper.|
|Armed Forces||22-Dec||Fort Worth, TX||Big XII 7||Iowa State||AAC||Houston||Keep Houston close-ish, give the AAC another P5 team it can take down. Assuming Iowa State can get past Incarnate Word, of course.|
|Birmingham||22-Dec||Birmingham, AL||SEC (II)||Nevada**||AAC||Temple||The Owls are gonna bowl (well, they need one more win, but.)... Believe it or not, Nevada would be the next team in with a 5-7 record, based on APR. They're tied for eighth with Washington, Illinois, and wisconsin at 986.|
|Potato||21-Dec||Boise, ID||MWC (I)||Boise State||MAC||Western Michigan||Western is bowl-eligible, and Boise won't win the Mountain West. BRONCO BATTLE on the Smurf Turf.|
|Bahamas||21-Dec||Nassau, BH||C-USA||Florida Atlantic||MAC||Northern Illinois||Is NIU good again? FAU looks mediocre again.|
|BAD BOY MOWERS Gasparilla||20-Dec||Tampa, FL||AAC||Cincinnati||C-USA||Marshall||Hey look, Cincy was a fraud. We'll see if they tumble farther than this, but for now, a good game against a tough Marshall team that just pounded FAU (31-7!) will suffice.|
|Frisco||19-Dec||Frisco, TX||AAC||Army*||At-large||BYU*||No change. Two independents without bowl contracts make for perfect stand-ins when the AAC can't fulfill its obligation.|
|Cheribundi Tart Cherry||18-Dec||Boca Raton, FL||AAC||Toledo*||C-USA||Florida International||Still gonna be a lot of points in this sucker. Butch Jones might actually be doing the damn thing in Miami. Could be a fun Indiana coach...|
|New Orleans||25-Dec||New Orleans, LA||Sun Belt||Louisiana Monroe||C-USA||Louisiana Tech||This matchup has never happened in the New Orleans Bowl, and that's a damn crime. The Warhawks sneak to 6-6; LaTech is competent.|
|Camellia||15-Dec||Montgomery, AL||Sun Belt||Georgia Southern||MAC||Eastern Michigan||I repeat: No modern Camellia Bowl has ever been decided by more than 5 points. That seems...implausible, but I can't wait to see how these two teams do it this year.|
|Las Vegas||15-Dec||Las Vegas, NV||Pac-12 6||USC||MWC 1||Fresno State||USC slips with the Pac-12 losing a NY6 slot, so why not give them something their fanbase might actually travel for -- a weekend getting fucked up in Vegas. Fresno could crash that party, though.|
|Cure||15-Dec||Orlando, FL||AAC||Memphis||Sun Belt||Appalachian State||The Mountaineers deserve something more fun than the Camellia or Dollar General bowls...they're 3-0 under Scott Satterfield, now give them a crack at one of the big boys. Take the over in this one.|
|New Mexico||15-Dec||Albuquerque, NM||MWC (I)||Utah State||C-USA||Middle Tennessee||USU falls here because Hawaii keeps its home bowl. MTSU will get to 6 wins; they're the last team left on my list.|
Disagree? Noted a number of repeats (I’m sure there’s at least one; just look harder)? Formatting not working for you? Let me know in the comments so I can laugh at you and maybe try to fix things next week.
Fuck Notre Dame.
Which team does NOT make the College Football Playoff?
This poll is closed