Big Ten Week 6 Picks

Time for an exercise in futility—deciding if wisconsin will cover the spread against a really shitty MAC team.

Purdue Boilermakers at Penn State Nittany Lions

11am | ESPN | PSU -27.5 | O/U 56.5

Straight-Up: PSU, 19-0
Against the Spread: PSU, 11-8

Boilerman: Young QB visiting Happy Valley? Potentially no Rondale Moore? Defense that can’t defend the middle of the field? My prediction: Pain. Take Penn State and lay the points and then lay some more. This might qualify for Reverse Teaser action (where you give an additional 6 points).

BrianB2: Penn State has played down to most of their non-turtle opponents this season. I feel like they are going to be needlessly sluggish against Purdue. They’ll win for sure, but perhaps not by four touchdowns.

Townie: Let me preface this by saying, my track record sucks…but here goes anyway.

Purdue gets the nod for B1G team struck by the Michigan State WTF injury bug this season. Last week they lost both Rondale Moore and Elijah Sindelar On The SAME PLAY.

That means they will lack offensive firepower going into Happy Valley on homecoming weekend. PSU’s defense is good enough to blank a wounded Purdue offense.

And the Purdue defense gave up an average of 33 points per game this season. Penn State averaged 50 points per game so far this season. It’s going to be ugly early, folks.

Penn State wins and covers.

Stew: If Franklin can run it up, Franklin will run it up. And Purdue, as it’s currently constituted, is most definitely a team PSU can run it up on. PSU covers.

BRT: Purdue would normally have a chance to keep this competitive, and theoretically could still—but I think those injuries are going to make this more lopsided than it deserves to be.

MNW: I share Brian’s reticence that when faced with a real Big Ten opponent (offense intended, Maryland), Penn State doesn’t just move the ball at will and roll up points on points. The Boilers have more pride than that, even if Boilerman saying “take reverse points” terrifies me to my very core. Penn State, 34-10.

Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan Wolverines

11am | FOX | Mich -4.5 | O/U 46.5

Straight-Up: Iowa, 14-5
Against the Spread: Iowa, 16-3

Townie: Iowa is good this year. Kirk Ferentz is a proven giant killer. I expect the Iowa D to know Josh Gattis’ offense better than Shea Patterson in this game. Expect Iowa’s pass rush to get to the QB early and often. Iowa wins by two touchdowns. Harbaugh breaks his headset.

Boilerman: Michigan “got right” against rutgres. Now the question remains, “Can they do it against someone with a pulse?” Methinks no. Give me Iowa outright.

Stew: I can see Michigan breaking a couple of long plays with their giant WRs against Iowa’s still injured secondary. Michigan is a team that Ferentz typically saves some juice for, so I think Iowa keeps it close, but Michigan squeaks it out.

BRT: I’m picking Iowa, and no, it doesn’t feel good. My hesitation on this was significant though, and that’s mostly because Michigan is at home. Still, Ferentz is no dummy, and Iowa is decent enough that they may be able to effectively target Michigan’s flaws enough to pull this one off.

MNW: The last time Iowa beat a ranked team on the road in the last 5 years, and those team were Northwestern and wisconsin in 2015.

It is not 2015, as Minneota has the claim to being a shitty team outperforming the odds for at least another day or two. Michigan, 21-17.

Kent State Golden Flashes at wisconsin badgers

11am | ESPNU | badgers -36.5 | O/U 59.5

Straight-Up: wisconsin, 19-0
Against the Spread: wisconsin, 11-8

Townie: Why is Wisconsin still playing cupcakes? They win in a let down game. Kent State covers.

Boilerman: This screams lookahead spot to me with Sparty coming to town next week. That said, this is an awful Kent State team. I’ll take the points but this is a stay-away game for me.

Stew: What ^he said. After Taylor’s slight injury scare last week, and with conference play coming up in earnest, wisconsin leaves some in the tank and lets Kent State cover.

MNW: I would not bet this if you made me. That said, I’m going to settle back into “never take wisconsin to cover in the non-con.” Is it lazy? ABSOLUTELY! But let’s just not squint too hard at this. badgers, 42-6.

Maryland Terrapins at Rutgers Scarlet Knights

11am | BTN | MD -13.5 | O/U 55

Straight-Up: Maryland, 17-2
Against the Spread: Maryland, 13-6

BrianB2: Maryland is losing this game, along with the other seven games remaining after it.

Townie: Rutgres and new HC Nunzio Campanile go to Maryland. I don’t expect a good showing. Maryland has a chip on its shoulder. Rutgers can’t get out of its own way. The home team wins and covers.

Boilerman: Am I a bad person for thinking Rutgers covers this game?

WSR: Why? Why?

Stew: Nope

MNW: Hell. Yes.

Any of the idiots giving you their “NOPE NOPE NOPE” routine above is disingenuous or an idiot. This is must-see television. There are two explosive RBs in Anthony McFarland and Raheem Blackshear. There is the ongoing narrative of “Is Maryland...actually anything?” There is Nunzio Campanile, the mere mention of whose full name should prompt you to take a shot of limoncello every time. You will watch this. You owe it to yourself. Nunzio Limoncello is going to call at least one fake punt, go for it needlessly on fourth down at least twice, and run at least one flea-flicker, because this is the game that Rutgers has a shot in. Besides Illinois, this is it. Shoot your shot, Knights.

But really, as OTB has reported, something called Johnny Langan is starting at QB for the Knights, as Artur Sitkowski is “contemplating a transfer.” I’m sure Bucknell is waiting eagerly by the phone. Maryland, 40-31.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Minnesota Golden Gophers

2:30pm | BTN | MN -14 | O/U 58

Straight-Up: Minnesota, 17-2
Against the Spread: Minnesota, 14-5

Townie: Minnesota hosts Illinois. Lovie may be the next coach out, after Ash. The boat rowers by 17 points.

Candystripes: So this is weird. I’m pretty sure Minnesota’s gonna win, but given how their season has gone, would anybody really be surprised if this is where the magic runs out and Illinois pulls the upset? Like, that makes sense, right? I’m not saying it’s happening, but I also won’t be too surprised if it does, and I’ll be happy to be wrong in that case.

Boilerman: Whoa, just came across this fun little nugget. Minnesota is 1-8-1 ATS after playing Purdue. I’ll middle this one and take the points with Illinois.

WSR: The rules are simple this year: Minnesota wins, but it’s only by 1 score. The line is 14? Doesn’t matter. 1 score. That’s all we need, so that’s all we get.

Stew: /Spins the wheel of bullshit.

Tick, tick, tick, tick, tick.

Minnesota wins on a last second punt return for touchdown after Lovie decides to punt instead of running an offensive play to run out the clock.

BRT: Minny should win, but true to form, it will be much dumber than it needs to be. Still, if Candy is correct and Peej’s patent medicine runs out on this particular game, I’m very much looking forward to Gopher Twitter.

MNW: If I were looking for a reason Minnesota would struggle--among the best 50 teams nationally in rush yards/gm, Minnesota is tied for second-worst in YPC, at 3.76. The Gophers offense should get theirs unless Illinois punches them in the mouth and forces Tanner Morgan to pass--which is a really weird statement, considering he should pass after Tyler Johnson and Rashad Bateman balled out last week, but a weird indictment of how Fleck and Ciarrocca want to Establish the Run. Reggie Corbin busts one to make it uncomfortable, and Stew is right, Lovie does something dumb. Minnesota, 40-30.

Northwestern Wildcats at Nebraska Cornhuskers

3pm | FOX | UNL -7 | O/U 48.5

Straight-Up: Nebraska, 14-5
Against the Spread: Northwestern, 12-7

Townie: Northwestern travels to Nebraska in a game where one of them will get a win. The fighting Fitz’s get their act together and stun the Bug Eaters at home. Northwestern in a close one.

Boilerman: Road teams have dominated against the number in this series, going 7-0. Fitz last year as a Road Dog was an automatic bet. I guess we’ll see if the trend continues.

WSR: Hello, and welcome to the bowl elimination game! In one corner we have playoff contender Nebraska with 3 wins and games against Purdue and maybe Indiana & Maryland left, and in the other we have 1-win B1G West contender justNorthwestern with games against Purdue, Illinois, UMass, and maybe Indiana. While the perfect result here (Northwestern wins, but both still miss out on bowls) is still in play, I just think that Nebraska will have something to prove after getting just walloped by tOSU last week. That thing to prove? “Hey! We’re not quite as bad as Rutgers.”

Stew: One team plays incredibly sloppy and undisciplined. The other is so over coached and controlled as to be inert. Gimme the middle, cuz who the fuck knows.

BRT: As long as we’re still giving the ball away like a politician handing out empty promises in an election year (and we are), Northwestern shouldn’t have problems. Still, I hope for the best, as this is really all I can do at this point. It will probably be close and stupid, as this game traditionally is.

MNW: Fuck this shit. Nebraska, 34-7.

Michigan State Spartans at Ohio State Buckeyes

6:30pm | ABC | OSU -20 | O/U 49

Straight-Up: Ohio State, 19-0
Against the Spread: Ohio State, 11-8

Townie: I’d love to see the Spartans defense find a chink in the Ohio State offense. They don’t. That MSU offense has no answer for the OSU pass rush. The Buckeye death star continues its march. They win and cover.

Boilerman: This is Ohio State’s conference, everyone else is just playing in it.

WSR: I don’t know if I should give Sparty credit for last week’s offensive performance or dump on Indiana for allowing it, but I just think a 20 point spread in a conference game is a lot here. tOSU is the best team by miles in the B1G and they’ll win, but I’m pretty squeamish about that many points.

Stew: I’m just gonna go ahead and take OSU to cover until they don’t.

BRT: Stew probably has the right idea here, but sometimes Dantonio shines in these sorts of games. I don’t think he can shine enough to beat the Buckeyes, but MSU may slow them down and usher in another week of Buckeye fans hyping up their unnecessary fears in order to create drama for themselves.

MNW: I have no idea if Michigan State’s defense is actually that good against a team that’s not flagrantly and transparently and negligently signaling that they’re going to Establish the Run every single fucking drive. Twenty feels high, but I’m prepared and happy to be wrong. Ohio State, 35-10.

Let us know your picks in the comments.